Thai Political Deadlock After Red Street Parade

[george]

Thai political deadlock after red street parade

by Thanaporn Promyamyai

BANGKOK (AFP) -- Politically riven Thailand was in a stalemate Saturday as protesters, buoyed by a huge parade across the capital, refused talks with the government announced earlier by the prime minister.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said anti-government "Red Shirt" protesters had agreed to talks with a government minister, as they bolstered their week-long rally with a carnival-like convoy that police said swelled to 65,000 people.

But upon returning to their main rally site, after waving flags and honking horns in a bid to win over Bangkok residents, the mainly rural supporters of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra stood firm in their demands.

"We will talk only with Abhisit," leader Jatuporn Prompan told the cheering crowd, reiterating their call for immediate elections.

Abhisit earlier said senators had arranged for a meeting on Monday between minister Satit Wonghnongtaey, government official Korbsak Sabhavasu and two senior Red Shirts.

"It's difficult to say anything in advance but at least it's good to start talks," the prime minister told reporters, as the colourful convoy of trucks, cars and motorbikes brought traffic to a halt in parts of the city.

The protesters, largely from poor northern areas, say Abhisit's government is illegitimate as it came to power with army backing via a December 2008 parliamentary vote after a controversial court ruling removed Thaksin's allies.

"We will talk only with Abhisit and with the condition of house dissolution," Nattawut Saikur told reporters after the day-long parade across the capital. He denied the Reds were "closing the door".

In what they have increasingly dubbed a "class war", the Reds say they are fighting Thailand's elite in bureaucratic, military and palace circles, whom they accuse of ousting elected governments.

Their noisy convoy was designed to recruit urban support and revive the so-far peaceful rally, which had begun to wane after peaking at more than 100,000 people last weekend.

"We succeeded on our caravan today. We were warmly received and welcomed by Reds and also many people of other coloured shirts," Nattawut said.

Abhisit, who has spent most of the rally holed up in an army barracks due to security fears, criticised the evocation of class struggle, saying it "incited social unrest".

He said Thaksin, who was ousted in a 2006 coup, was an "obstacle to negotiation" between the government and Red Shirts.

The ex-premier, who lives in exile to avoid a jail term for corruption, spoke to supporters via videolink on Saturday night, thanking those who took part in the convoy. "I'm really proud of you. I almost cried," he said.

"Today I want to invite everyone to join us to call for democracy. You don't have to wear red, but just have one ideology: democracy."

Authorities warned Bangkok residents to stay at home on Saturday and 1,000 traffic police officers were deployed along the 60 kilometre (37 mile) route.

A 50,000-strong security force has been in place in Bangkok and surrounding areas.

The protesters picketed the military base housing Abhisit on Monday and on Wednesday threw bags of their blood at the walls of his home, after a similar stunt at his office a day earlier.

On Sunday morning, artists will paint the remaining blood on a white canvas, Nattawut said.

Since Thaksin's ouster, Thailand has been rocked by protests by both his supporters and his opponents, many of whom are

in Bangkok and accuse him of corruption and of disloyalty to the revered royal family.

-- ©Copyright AFP 2010-03-20

Published with written approval from AFP.

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[george]

ANALYSIS

After the procession, it's back to square one

By TULSATHIT TAPTIM

Thaksin Shinawatra has asked his supporters to stay on a little longer, but from the way things are going, the Bangkok showdown is looking more and more like a TV series whose script writers don't know how to end. When the red shirts regrouped at the Phan Fa Bridge yesterday evening after peacefully roaming Bangkok on thousands of vehicles, it was almost symbolically "back to square one".

There was renewed hope for negotiations, with Satit Wongnongtaey and Weng Tojirakarn mentioned as government and red-shirt representatives, respectively. But the fight has changed its billing from "I will floor you within two rounds" to a highly tactical one that may last until the final gong. Satit and Weng may start talking, but the two men who really matter remain a world apart in intriguing propaganda warfare.

Obviously, Thaksin had designed yesterday's activities to be a campaign of love. It was to counter Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's attempt to label the rally as his opponent's tool to spread hatred and deepen the divide. Protesters waved and smiled to bystanders during their city tour, receiving friendly greetings in some areas but hostility or disapproval in others. What went missing in the long convoy was a theme that Thaksin had tried to amplify over the past few days - that this was a fight between phrai (slaves or lowly peasants) and ammart (aristocrats or royal advisers).

With Thaksin photographed in Montenegro overseeing a hotel renovation project on a beach paradise, Abhisit has taken the phrai theme and turned it into his own ammunition. In rapid-fire media interviews, he deplored efforts to spawn hatred and mocked the richest phrai the world has ever seen. He was backed by former Democrat leader Chuan Leepai, who warned that the declaration of a "class war" could drive Thailand towards a disastrous division that could never heal.

A "peace" drive by the neutrals earlier has greatly affected both camps' strategies, and neither side wants to be blamed for triggering violence. Now the fight is about who can project their version of the story to the unbiased audience in Thailand and beyond. Are the oppressed rural poor defying illegitimate and abusive state power, or is a political fugitive causing social rifts through a hate campaign for his own benefit?

The rally has been boosted by more involvement of Pheu Thai MPs, who had kept a distance, leading to a relatively low number of protesters in Bangkok. Pheu Thai's late arrival was capped yesterday by leader Chavalit Yongchaiyudh visiting the Phan Fa crowds. "I have never seen this kind of discipline," Chavalit told the protesters, lauding their peaceful Bangkok roaming mission. "Today our mission is accomplished."

Red-shirt leaders will take heart from the rising number of protesters, which means reinforcements from the provinces must have come.

Here are two boxers dancing and dancing, with a little bit of jabbing. If this is a real sport, it may be boring and not worth the ticket cost. But with Thailand's peace hanging by a thread, the current situation could be the best deal the country can get - at least for now.

-- The Nation 2010-03-21

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[geriatrickid]

Square one.

Let the square dancing begin......

Partners swing your partners round and round, dosey doe and blah blah blah.

All this arguing is tiresome. Has anything been accomplished? Time to take PM Abhisit up on his offer and sit down and discuss the situation. 1st step, is to direct relief to the farmers. This is going to be a brutal year for the agricultural sector. Barring a miracle, the drought is going to crush alot of people. Now is the time to rework the expensive agricultural products distribution system with all the middlemen that add nothing to the process. If the droughts push down harvest yields, the next protests won't be calm like this recent one, it will consist of hungry angry people running about. We rely on the farm sector to deliver the low cost food which keeps the peace. If anything happens to this sector, the results will be grim.

[tonglen]

It will be interesting to find out the true cost to his nation after the protests have passed.

Its much more than the reported 1,000+ daily hotel cancellations and re-directed/cancelled flights. The damages stretches far beyond the sphere of tourism baht thats has been lost. The locals are affected, too.

1.)What about the additional financial burden that represents the man hours to support the 50,000+ troops, including the extra investigators that are necessarily needed during these, AND OTHER rallies? Yes, I said other rallies as well.

2.)How about the extra round-the-clock shifts that are needed for additional security?

3.)Not to mention the damaged reputation that only reinforces negative stereotypes about Thailand.

4.)Closed businesses, schools and the jobs therein add to the list.

These reds, yellows and others need to get less colorful, me thinks.

How about some nice earth tones, maybe hemp? Would that help?

[steveromagnino]

Square one.

Let the square dancing begin......

Partners swing your partners round and round, dosey doe and blah blah blah.

All this arguing is tiresome. Has anything been accomplished? Time to take PM Abhisit up on his offer and sit down and discuss the situation. 1st step, is to direct relief to the farmers. This is going to be a brutal year for the agricultural sector. Barring a miracle, the drought is going to crush alot of people. Now is the time to rework the expensive agricultural products distribution system with all the middlemen that add nothing to the process. If the droughts push down harvest yields, the next protests won't be calm like this recent one, it will consist of hungry angry people running about. We rely on the farm sector to deliver the low cost food which keeps the peace. If anything happens to this sector, the results will be grim.

I agree. A lot of the protest is actually a policy issue, not anything to do with democracy. They can surely sit down without losing face, and present their policy issues, while simultaneously fighting for their version of democracy/pardons/constitution fiddling.

The issues

Bummer we signed that FTA with China; a bunch of farmers (garlic, high value vegetables) already lost their shirts when the chinese imports flooded in - need to renegotiate it; TRT screwed the pooch on that one (and didn't let any NGOs, academics or actual farmers help negotiate it either)

The drought is not really specifically to do with China; everything to do with lack of rainfall and all the users of the Mekong taking more water than ever; Thai farmers included. While I am not keen on supporting farmers living beyond their means; they deserve some assistance; crop pricing using the minimum guarantee is enough for what they grow; nowhere are they guaranteed a 2nd crop each year in some provinces, and they don't deserve anything for that; each should have access to cheap credit; food banks and family support.

The debt is an odd one, some of that land will continue to end up with people like my family later anyway unless they really know how to budget and manage (we buy up a fair bit of land every year, as farmers go broke, usually through mismanagement of cashflow and budgeting).

Re. middlemen, I agree - free and open markets; get rid of the cartel buying systems and that's already helped a lot by removing crop pledging - the open market should have far better bidding into a single transparent market rather than say sugar farmers having to sell to the local baron or get threats. But more importantly, reduce the roles of people like CP Group; the lies about chicken flu were to protect CP, the lies about how closed system farming works better were to help CP; the FTAs are all about helping CP and even the retail and distribution network all favour CP by eliminating foreign and large size competition. CP were part of the TRT cabinet, they are a big donor, and they generate a lot of revenue but let's GET THEM UNDER CONTROL. Most importantly, increase education to the farmers so they can make up their own minds and deal with their own buyers. No govt has ever really attempted to assist this group - education is key.

At least we have millions of tons of produce in govt storage from Mingkwan's overpriced buy up. No one is going hungry. Just need to make sure that some of it is still edible and that the govt is willing to foot the loss that J Ming provided for us, the tax payers.

Long term though, a large amount of rural workers need to either upskill or start operating larger farms to generate more cash in a sustainable way - one major issue being water supply - which also may mean a lot less farmers each operating bigger farms. The productivity per person can improve a lot, particularly in some rural areas; a lot is due to small land plot sizes. And flicking pumps everywhere to tap into ground water is a short term solution just like most of the other short term money makers - prawn farming up the rivers; cutting mangroves to create prawn farms; over fishing; over using water; they work for a while then we end up worse off.

If they can't work harder/work more effectively then they need to accept to live within their means . They should not be permanently subsidised to live as rural folk with debt forgiveness, pledging and so on.

They can't have both the wealth and also keep doing things how they do now. To me that's why education and access to microcredit with the education to make use of it are critical. There are simply way too many farmers for the land and they are placing too great a burden on the resources (hence the fights over water in some areas where some can't accept that 2 crops a year is not always possible).

[moresomekl]

Square one.

Let the square dancing begin......

Partners swing your partners round and round, dosey doe and blah blah blah.

All this arguing is tiresome. Has anything been accomplished? Time to take PM Abhisit up on his offer and sit down and discuss the situation. 1st step, is to direct relief to the farmers. This is going to be a brutal year for the agricultural sector. Barring a miracle, the drought is going to crush alot of people. Now is the time to rework the expensive agricultural products distribution system with all the middlemen that add nothing to the process. If the droughts push down harvest yields, the next protests won't be calm like this recent one, it will consist of hungry angry people running about. We rely on the farm sector to deliver the low cost food which keeps the peace. If anything happens to this sector, the results will be grim.

I agree. A lot of the protest is actually a policy issue, not anything to do with democracy. They can surely sit down without losing face, and present their policy issues, while simultaneously fighting for their version of democracy/pardons/constitution fiddling.

The issues

Bummer we signed that FTA with China; a bunch of farmers (garlic, high value vegetables) already lost their shirts when the chinese imports flooded in - need to renegotiate it; TRT screwed the pooch on that one (and didn't let any NGOs, academics or actual farmers help negotiate it either)

The drought is not really specifically to do with China; everything to do with lack of rainfall and all the users of the Mekong taking more water than ever; Thai farmers included. While I am not keen on supporting farmers living beyond their means; they deserve some assistance; crop pricing using the minimum guarantee is enough for what they grow; nowhere are they guaranteed a 2nd crop each year in some provinces, and they don't deserve anything for that; each should have access to cheap credit; food banks and family support.

The debt is an odd one, some of that land will continue to end up with people like my family later anyway unless they really know how to budget and manage (we buy up a fair bit of land every year, as farmers go broke, usually through mismanagement of cashflow and budgeting).

Re. middlemen, I agree - free and open markets; get rid of the cartel buying systems and that's already helped a lot by removing crop pledging - the open market should have far better bidding into a single transparent market rather than say sugar farmers having to sell to the local baron or get threats. But more importantly, reduce the roles of people like CP Group; the lies about chicken flu were to protect CP, the lies about how closed system farming works better were to help CP; the FTAs are all about helping CP and even the retail and distribution network all favour CP by eliminating foreign and large size competition. CP were part of the TRT cabinet, they are a big donor, and they generate a lot of revenue but let's GET THEM UNDER CONTROL. Most importantly, increase education to the farmers so they can make up their own minds and deal with their own buyers. No govt has ever really attempted to assist this group - education is key.

At least we have millions of tons of produce in govt storage from Mingkwan's overpriced buy up. No one is going hungry. Just need to make sure that some of it is still edible and that the govt is willing to foot the loss that J Ming provided for us, the tax payers.

Long term though, a large amount of rural workers need to either upskill or start operating larger farms to generate more cash in a sustainable way - one major issue being water supply - which also may mean a lot less farmers each operating bigger farms. The productivity per person can improve a lot, particularly in some rural areas; a lot is due to small land plot sizes. And flicking pumps everywhere to tap into ground water is a short term solution just like most of the other short term money makers - prawn farming up the rivers; cutting mangroves to create prawn farms; over fishing; over using water; they work for a while then we end up worse off.

If they can't work harder/work more effectively then they need to accept to live within their means . They should not be permanently subsidised to live as rural folk with debt forgiveness, pledging and so on.

They can't have both the wealth and also keep doing things how they do now. To me that's why education and access to microcredit with the education to make use of it are critical. There are simply way too many farmers for the land and they are placing too great a burden on the resources (hence the fights over water in some areas where some can't accept that 2 crops a year is not always possible).

Agree , excellent post

[Thai at Heart]

CP is a monolithic presence in both Thailand and China.

Whilst they have moved the markets to their advantage, it hasn't been only for their benefit. For CP, there are other companies in all the major export commodity markets that have benefited from the rules and regs that have been put into existence to protect the exporter whilst neglecting the farmer.

They are private companies so I wouldn't expect them to do anything more than maximise profits. They have been able to act behind a veil of protection to expand their businesses with very little put back to insure that the farmers are profitable. Their influence on the market is far beyond what it should be because they have always played all sides of the political game. I wouldn't expect them to act in any other manner, much in the same way that Tesco dominate the agricultural purchases market in the UK. Their job is not to help farmers, but to make money. The government must step in to protect the little guy.

This issue however goes back to believing that co-ops are in some way dastardly communist concepts that are to be smashed at all costs. The farmers have been prevented from using their combined voice to strengthen their market position. This has been supported by successive governments. What I am not sure about is whether a company like CP, or any of the other large commodity exporters understand is that they are a cartel and that having sustainable farming production is in their long term benefit. They have never been exposed to international competition in any way. They have simply carved up domestic supply and moved domestic agricultural policy to their benefit for decades.

The Thai rice market for example is domestic in purchase but global in scope. The government acts as a buffer to the risk that the buyers face without providing enough protection to the farmers. Global pressure has little or no effect on what a supplier is willing to pay the Thai market. The average age of farmers nationwide is increasing year on year and if policies continue like this, I really wouldn't be surprised to see Thailand as a net importer of food in 30 years, whilst CP has moved further and further into the markets in neighbouring countries and China.

Co-ops are the only way for the farmers to pool their resources, and leverage their buying and supply power to get a better voice in the market for a better deal.