Abhisit's Welfare Promise Will Be Hard To Implement

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THAI TALK

Abhisit's welfare promise will be hard to implement

By Suthichai Yoon

The Nation

It's not a populist platform; it's not a welfare state. What is it?

If you read between the lines, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva hasn't categorically denied he has been stepping up his campaign for a "populist" platform in the wake of an upcoming general election. If pressed, he may even admit that some of the "free gifts" offered to the grassroots might have been copied from the Thaksin government's popular, if controversial, handouts to rural constituencies.

Of course, Abhisit would hasten to add that he has improved upon Thaksin's populist policies and, with a straight face, may even insist, believe it or not, that his populist policies aren't necessarily designed to win votes for the Democrat Party.

But at the same time, Abhisit has been very careful to avoid branding his popular measures as "populist". Instead he has chosen the term "social welfare" to differentiate his platform from the more controversial and allegedly more wasteful populist packages.

But even the "welfare" branding has caused heated debate among academics and those trying to understand what this government is up to. In other words, is Abhisit pursuing a populist platform or embarking on building a welfare state?

Last week, when he spoke to the King Prajadhipok's Institute on the issue, the prime minister put it on the record for the first time: No, he is neither a populist premier nor a political leader trying to create a welfare state. He didn't say it in so many words, but I am tempted to think he is suggesting it's somewhere in between.

Abhisit admitted he had tried to avoid employing the term "welfare state" to describe the "social welfare system" he has been vigorously trying to promote. To adopt policies that aim at turning Thailand into a welfare state isn't possible or pragmatic, at least for the time being, he says.

"The Thai government isn't in a position to bear the whole burden of a welfare state structure because, if that's the case, tax rates will be very high. That will raise the question of our ability to solve the country's economic woes," he said.

Abhisit insists that a high-tax policy could not be sustained because Thailand has to adapt to an ageing society in the next few years.

"If we levy high taxes on the working population to pay for ageing people, the tax rates will have to continue to rise because the ratio between working people and senior citizens will become even more lopsided," the premier said.

What the government has to do, as a matter of high priority, is to adopt a policy that will provide welfare for those who need it - such as allowances for senior citizens and the disabled. But then the government would have to be careful, he added, not to send out wrong signals.

"We can't just say we will increase the Bt500 per month allowance for elderly and disabled people. If we do so - say raising the Bt500 to Bt1,000 - that would mean a huge addition in government spending."

The "social welfare system" the PM is talking about would effectively be similar to a central provident fund. He says a new bill will be proposed to set up a "welfare savings fund" so that those currently not covered by the government's welfare system will for the first time have their own savings, matched by government contributions.

What perhaps is a novel idea is the proposed formation of a farmers' welfare fund that will be drawn from fees collected on the use of water for agricultural purposes. This, he says, represents a transition from a system based on government assistance to one of entitlements on the way to a social welfare system. That, Abhisit stresses, is different from what is generally understood to be a welfare state concept.

It's a cradle-to-grave welfare system, but one that the state and citizens pair up to create, to withstand economic woes and unexpected calamities. Abhisit says he aims to put this in place by 2016, six years from now.

If that's what it really is, high taxes will not be on the cards. Free handouts by the government will also be out. After all, they both pose an increasingly unbearable burden on taxpayers.

But a social welfare system based on people's savings and corresponding government contributions needs hard work to implement and corruption-free efficiency within the bureaucracy. It's not politically sexy and the people will need to adjust to some hard, cold facts.

Abhisit can articulate the difference between politically-driven populist and sustainable welfare systems. But can he build up an enlightened Cabinet and efficient bureaucracy to deliver this vital change?

Unless he can prove otherwise, I seriously doubt it.

-- The Nation 2010-09-02

[Siripon]

Mark has brains and vision, the questions are can he keep the dinosaurs in the civil service on board and the greedy politicians' noses out of the trough?

Good luck to him.

[Siripon]

Mark has brains and vision, the questions are can he keep the dinosaurs in the civil service on board and the greedy politicians' noses out of the trough?

Good luck to him.

[hammered]

Mark has brains and vision, the questions are can he keep the dinosaurs in the civil service on board and the greedy politicians' noses out of the trough?

Good luck to him.

Changes like this are the big etst of whether the dinos and self interested powerful groups will go with allowing Abhisit to change the system to advantage the poor more relative to the currently favoured groups or whether they will stymie his efforts and open up the coutnry to a more revolutionary change in the future. A lot of the dinos are completely unaware this is the choice they face and continue to think things will stay the same for ever, which is a very dangerous situation.

The unused land tax and inheritance tax are also other changes that will address needed reform on wealth distribution. This government also has work to do on the education front where schools are starting to try and find ways to dodge free education, and where university entrance is ridiculously tested at least tio a degree on what is not taught at school meaning the need for expensive tutor schooling which again adavntages the ricvh. If you talk to M5/M6 students who want to go to university you can find anger about this insanity at a higher level than among dyed in the wool red shirts about the army!

[MaiChai]

Abhisit always seems to be sitting on the fence. Its easy to say why you can't do something; its more difficult to do something and make a difference. I am sure he is very bright and clever he just does not seem to be doing anything of any merit.

[Pib]

Abhisit always seems to be sitting on the fence. Its easy to say why you can't do something; its more difficult to do something and make a difference. I am sure he is very bright and clever he just does not seem to be doing anything of any merit.

Would tend to agree...and a he uses a soft saddle to straddle/ride the fence.

[mccw]

Abhisit always seems to be sitting on the fence. Its easy to say why you can't do something; its more difficult to do something and make a difference. I am sure he is very bright and clever he just does not seem to be doing anything of any merit.

Would tend to agree...and a he uses a soft saddle to straddle/ride the fence.

did you two only read the first half of the article or something? It goes on to explain how a future welfare system could opperate without the tax burden of young paying for old. This aging population thing is amajor problem facing all developed economies. These are great ideas and very forward minded of him. I hope he gets the time to implement them.