Transfer Market Bubble?

[sharecropper]

Does anyone get the feeling we are seeing the bursting of a bubble in the transfer market this close season?

I mean, how many players are NOT moving when many clubs want them - think of the Liverpool and City squads, full of bench warmers earning up to 100K a week, sometimes far more. Many seem reluctant to go to a mid-table side, even though they'd get a lot more playing experience but for maybe not even half what they are currently being paid.

And how many clubs are being put off launching bids because of stratospheric wages currently being paid by some clubs for indifferent talent?

Unsurprisingly, besides City, in large part I blame Liverpool for this - especially Rafa.

Although King Kenny paid stupid money for Carroll, he also got incredibly stupid money for Torres, but I think he also well overpaid for Henderson.

As for Rafa's mis-signings, their monthly payroll is so big it has stopped them signing more (and better?) players until they can trim the fat.

And it seems to me this close season has been marked by many poorer clubs being able or unwilling to afford bids for overpriced and overpaid talent, which in pre-bubble days they could have got for a song.

Paradoxically, having blown up the balloon with Torres and Carroll, Liverpool have been partly responsible for pricking it with their admirable haggling for Adam and Stewart Downing.

I suspect a lot of the other bubble players in the PL will see out their contracts playing in Reserve games (if they're lucky) for the next few years and take the big money instead of going elsewhere for the love of the game.

Then they can try to leave on a free transfer and negotiate up their weekly salary (erm, think Joe Cole - he must be laughing his head off about how it worked so well (financially) for him).

I personally don't blame any of them, especially in this bleak financial world, but maybe the bubble has burst, and when they do eventually try to see out their massively padded contracts, clubs will have to accept significantly less transfer money and the players less cash, as teams are now unable or reluctant to splash the cash as they have done previously, irrespective of the impending UEFA financial rules.

That's what I think anyway!

[StevieH]

i blame heysel personally.

[carmine]

I blame Terry McDermotts hairstyle and shell suit elegance

Edited July 10, 2011 by carmine

[mrbojangles]

I think it's down to decreased sales in Pukka Pies.

[smokie36]

I blame Terry McDermotts hairstyle and shell suit elegance

Ot was more the pin striped Lpool shirt of the era.....why some of 'em even had matching jeans.....nicked of course!

[MrRed]

Great post Sharecropper the only savior can be King Rafa we all know how much money he wasted and the situation he got the red mickeys in

King Kenny rules for now.......................

[mrtoad]

I blame those dam_n pesky Red Shits and Thaksin

[carmine]

i think the situation in the "transfer market" is quite well summed up by the Levy/Modric situation.

He'll eventually get his transfer by making his position of playing for Tottenham totally untennable which he has achieved by his actions of the last 24 hours. No doubt by the advice of his agent.

i love his acusations that he signed a new six year contract with a gentlemans agreement he could leave whenever he wanted to.

Player power and the agents rule and we should sell him. However, on the proviso its to another league, which would be a nice kick in the balls to jumped up small clubs laundering cossack rubles.

[Travel2003]

Seems like anyone associated with LFC is given the title King (Rafa, Kenny, Kev).

How wrong could I be, thinking most of them were Jesters.

[StevieH]

only by fans of other teams it seems. LFC has only ever had one 'king' and that's kenny dalglish. keegan's nickname was just KK at liverpool then later in his career he was known as mighty mouse and eventually 'king kev' by the barcodes. rafael benitez was never called king rafa. his nickname was 'rafa'.

[Abrak]

Can we please stop the Rafa stuff. I am very neutral on the subject but he was not particularly disastrous in the transfer league certainly if you compare him to Houllier or his successor. Liverpool has been badly mismanaged for well over a decade and blaming any individual is ridiculous.

I know people only do it to bait LFC fans who are deeply divided on the issue. Rafa's transfer policy is mixed but above average for a PL football manager. I can definitely prove that statistically but as I happen to have mixed feelings about Rafa I dont particularly want to. I am not a huge Rafa fan but the idea that he was particularly wasteful in the transfer market doesnt really stand up to statistical analysis.

If you simply take...

Torres

Alonso

Reina

Lucas

Together they make up for the majority of the losses on poor signings.

Most other managers have far worst records.

[smokie36]

Can we please stop the Rafa stuff. I am very neutral on the subject but he was not particularly disastrous in the transfer league certainly if you compare him to Houllier or his successor. Liverpool has been badly mismanaged for well over a decade and blaming any individual is ridiculous.

I know people only do it to bait LFC fans who are deeply divided on the issue. Rafa's transfer policy is mixed but above average for a PL football manager. I can definitely prove that statistically but as I happen to have mixed feelings about Rafa I dont particularly want to. I am not a huge Rafa fan but the idea that he was particularly wasteful in the transfer market doesnt really stand up to statistical analysis.

If you simply take...

Torres

Alonso

Reina

Lucas

Together they make up for the majority of the losses on poor signings.

Most other managers have far worst records.

Losing Alonso was a massive cock up however. Torres should have been sold earlier too. Far too reliant on the one striker.

[carmine]

Can we please stop the Rafa stuff. I am very neutral on the subject but he was not particularly disastrous in the transfer league certainly if you compare him to Houllier or his successor. Liverpool has been badly mismanaged for well over a decade and blaming any individual is ridiculous.

I know people only do it to bait LFC fans who are deeply divided on the issue. Rafa's transfer policy is mixed but above average for a PL football manager. I can definitely prove that statistically but as I happen to have mixed feelings about Rafa I dont particularly want to. I am not a huge Rafa fan but the idea that he was particularly wasteful in the transfer market doesnt really stand up to statistical analysis.

If you simply take...

Torres

Alonso

Reina

Lucas

Together they make up for the majority of the losses on poor signings.

Most other managers have far worst records.

Losing Alonso was a massive cock up however. Torres should have been sold earlier too. Far too reliant on the one striker.

Not sure i can go along with you here smokie. I'm not sure they cocked up with Alonso Madrid is a huge lure for many Spaniards. Regards Torres, i don't think you simply offload a world class striker just because he's having a bad run of form and with little back up. Add to this the ridiculous fee recieved when he eventually did go and i think they did rather well.

[smokie36]

Can we please stop the Rafa stuff. I am very neutral on the subject but he was not particularly disastrous in the transfer league certainly if you compare him to Houllier or his successor. Liverpool has been badly mismanaged for well over a decade and blaming any individual is ridiculous.

I know people only do it to bait LFC fans who are deeply divided on the issue. Rafa's transfer policy is mixed but above average for a PL football manager. I can definitely prove that statistically but as I happen to have mixed feelings about Rafa I dont particularly want to. I am not a huge Rafa fan but the idea that he was particularly wasteful in the transfer market doesnt really stand up to statistical analysis.

If you simply take...

Torres

Alonso

Reina

Lucas

Together they make up for the majority of the losses on poor signings.

Most other managers have far worst records.

Losing Alonso was a massive cock up however. Torres should have been sold earlier too. Far too reliant on the one striker.

Not sure i can go along with you here smokie. I'm not sure they cocked up with Alonso Madrid is a huge lure for many Spaniards. Regards Torres, i don't think you simply offload a world class striker just because he's having a bad run of form and with little back up. Add to this the ridiculous fee recieved when he eventually did go and i think they did rather well.

Whatever way you look at it however the hole Alonso left was never properly filled by Benitez. Combined with having his only decent striker out injured or too heavily relied upon cost him his job ultimately.

[StevieH]

Whatever way you look at it however the hole Alonso left was never properly filled by Benitez. Combined with having his only decent striker out injured or too heavily relied upon cost him his job ultimately.

that's a quite spectacular misunderstanding of what happened at liverpool under benitez smokie. the alonso hole was never filled because the alonso money went straight to the banks to pay off interest.

[smokie36]

Whatever way you look at it however the hole Alonso left was never properly filled by Benitez. Combined with having his only decent striker out injured or too heavily relied upon cost him his job ultimately.

that's a quite spectacular misunderstanding of what happened at liverpool under benitez smokie. the alonso hole was never filled because the alonso money went straight to the banks to pay off interest.

I thought you had spent it on Aquillani.

[sharecropper]

Whatever way you look at it however the hole Alonso left was never properly filled by Benitez. Combined with having his only decent striker out injured or too heavily relied upon cost him his job ultimately.

that's a quite spectacular misunderstanding of what happened at liverpool under benitez smokie. the alonso hole was never filled because the alonso money went straight to the banks to pay off interest.

I thought you had spent it on Aquillani.

I agree. Where do they think all the money came from to sign these super expensive players, and for King Rafa to agree to massive salaries for a load of expensive benchwarmers (it wasn't King Kenny now, was it?)? And then they moan about having to pay it back?

And interestingly, regarding the problems I raised in my OP, namely the general ills caused by moneybags teams skewering the transfer market, and other teams hyperinflating their player valuations so as to price them out of a move, have a look at this.

Winger Priced out of a Move (from Eat Sleep Sport)

http://www.eatsleepsport.com/everton/winger-priced-out-of-move-1238297.html#.Thu4smH4LbE

Edited July 12, 2011 by sharecropper

[smokie36]

Whatever way you look at it however the hole Alonso left was never properly filled by Benitez. Combined with having his only decent striker out injured or too heavily relied upon cost him his job ultimately.

that's a quite spectacular misunderstanding of what happened at liverpool under benitez smokie. the alonso hole was never filled because the alonso money went straight to the banks to pay off interest.

I thought you had spent it on Aquillani.

I agree. Where do they think all the money came from to sign these super expensive players, and for King Rafa to agree to massive salaries for a load of expensive benchwarmers (it wasn't King Kenny now, was it?)? And then they moan about having to pay it back?

And interestingly, regarding the problems I raised in my OP, namely the general ills caused by moneybags teams skewering the transfer market, and other teams hyperinflating their player valuations so as to price them out of a move, have a look at this.

Winger Priced out of a Move (from Eat Sleep Sport)

http://www.eatsleeps...ml#.Thu4smH4LbE

We have the same problem at the :ane with Levy demanding upwards of £12m for Krankjar. He can't even get a game most weeks. Same with Keane. Its just madness.

[Abrak]

I thought you had spent it on Aquillani.

Most of Aquilani money was post dated - we havent finished paying for him yet.

[smokie36]

I thought you had spent it on Aquillani.

Most of Aquilani money was post dated - we havent finished paying for him yet.

Fair enough to both of you scousers. My point was really regarding Alonso being used as a transfer makeweight the previous summer which led to his unhappiness....well allegedly anyway....

He was a big loss that's for sure.

[sharecropper]

Smoke where do you stand on the other transfer punch up at the Lane - Modric?

My feeling is there is no room for egos in these disputes and no point entering into a p*ssing contest with these players when they really want away. It's silly.

We did that once with Lescott, but maybe that was just to jack up the price we got for him. Still, we got thrashed by Arsenal 6-1 at home when we played him when he wanted to leave.

[sharecropper]

I thought you had spent it on Aquillani.

Most of Aquilani money was post dated - we havent finished paying for him yet.

Ouch. That's got to hurt.

Fair point on him.

What do you realistcally think you could get for him now?

[smokie36]

Smoke where do you stand on the other transfer punch up at the Lane - Modric?

My feeling is there is no room for egos in these disputes and no point entering into a p*ssing contest with these players when they really want away. It's silly.

We did that once with Lescott, but maybe that was just to jack up the price we got for him. Still, we got thrashed by Arsenal 6-1 at home when we played him when he wanted to leave.

We're discussing this right now on our thread mate. All that's left to be said is if anyone wants him the price is going up....not down. The longer this goes on the more hardball Levy will become. We know our chairman!

He'll likely be sold now but if its to Chelsea it will be top dollar. Anyone else could likely pick him up £5m cheaper...especially a club from abroad.

Selling our stars to other London clubs is not a popular move and we'll want to be laughing our socks of at a huge transfer fee if it happens.

[Abrak]

I agree. Where do they think all the money came from to sign these super expensive players, and for King Rafa to agree to massive salaries for a load of expensive benchwarmers (it wasn't King Kenny now, was it?)? And then they moan about having to pay it back?

And interestingly, regarding the problems I raised in my OP, namely the general ills caused by moneybags teams skewering the transfer market, and other teams hyperinflating their player valuations so as to price them out of a move, have a look at this.

Winger Priced out of a Move (from Eat Sleep Sport)

http://www.eatsleepsport.com/everton/winger-priced-out-of-move-1238297.html#.Thu4smH4LbE

Funnily enough transfer prices dont make much difference in the greater scheme of things. I mean one club gets it and on club loses it. It doesnt really effect overall profitability. It is more a game and you just hope you dont get landed with the player up until he retires.

What matters is the wages and these have been getting seriously out of control. At LFC there are a bunch of players who arent going anywhere because nobody is going to pay them so much.

You can also see that it is only a few clubs involved. You can tell from LFC's revenues that the average of their 25 man team cannot exceed 70k a week for breakeven. And LFC has double the revenue of the 7th highest revenue based team in the PL. So when you start hearing 200k a week wages or 90k a week wages for benchwarmers you know why the PL is losing 440m a year. I liked the way that Sunderland said that Ngog should take a 30k a week wage cut - makes you wonder what he was being paid.

[smokie36]

Or his response Abrak....."But I've got bills to pay!"

The heart bleeds so it does.....

[StevieH]

Whatever way you look at it however the hole Alonso left was never properly filled by Benitez. Combined with having his only decent striker out injured or too heavily relied upon cost him his job ultimately.

that's a quite spectacular misunderstanding of what happened at liverpool under benitez smokie. the alonso hole was never filled because the alonso money went straight to the banks to pay off interest.

I thought you had spent it on Aquillani.

we got 30m for alonso. we spent 7m initially on aquilani. rafa benitez has stated previously that the intention was to also sign stefan jovetic from fiorentina since he knew that aquilani alone could not replace alonso. then the money vanished. same as it always did under hicks and gillett. rafa benitez was hamstrung from may 2007 onwards by the owners.

[sharecropper]

An interesting Independent article about Adebayor and - more interestingly - the reason City won't let their high earning players leave on the cheap - suddenly this expensive baggage has morphed from overpaid footballers into useful financial instruments.

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/adebayor-on-strike-as-city-relationship-turns-ugly-2312160.html

[mrbojangles]

An interesting Independent article about Adebayor and - more interestingly - the reason City won't let their high earning players leave on the cheap - suddenly this expensive baggage has morphed from overpaid footballers into useful financial instruments.

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/adebayor-on-strike-as-city-relationship-turns-ugly-2312160.html

Adebayor has turned out to be a right prat. He is in a lucrative contract that no one forced him to sign. And because he didn't like warming the bench due to him not trying enough on the park, he wanted out. Off he went on a season loan and stated he didn't want to come back. Well, boo, fekkin hoo you are in a contract and we are not going to give you away. If he was half as good as he thinks he is, clubs would have been banging the door down for him.

Tell you what Ade. Meet us half way and drop your salary demands and we'll move on your price. Someone might go for you then but it's not often a player will take a hit but they expect the clubs to.

[sharecropper]

Mb BJ - serious question - also given the Tevez runaround, do you reckon Mancini has a problem managing City's bigger stars?

[bkkjames]

No, its all hicks and gillettes fault- oops wrong thread.