Best Way To Profit From French And German Down Fall?

[mccw]

Dear experienced players. I'm wondering what vehicle best to use for.. a- to profit from short term downward movements in the cac ; and b- longer/ medium term ie 1-3 years negative movement.

Thanks

To me it looks like the more the decent but fragile EU members such as France and Germany (but France foremost) collatoralise, put funds up etc on the line for the rubbish countries the more risky and worse it will be for their own economies; as is starting to being shown in their bonds price. Every step they make "forward" to me looks like a step closer to screwing themselves. So how best to profit from their down fall?

[Naam]

put funds up etc on the line for the rubbish countries the more risky and worse it will be for their own economies; as is starting to being shown in their bonds price.

the economies of Germany and France have been booming in times with multiple yields on their sovereign bonds. neither present nor historic bond prices, respectively bond yields, reflect necessarily the state of the economies.

having said so, i agree that the stock markets are shaky and that the outlook is not exactly positive. but i wouldn't dare to short.

[mccw]

put funds up etc on the line for the rubbish countries the more risky and worse it will be for their own economies; as is starting to being shown in their bonds price.

the economies of Germany and France have been booming in times with multiple yields on their sovereign bonds. neither present nor historic bond prices, respectively bond yields, reflect necessarily the state of the economies.

having said so, i agree that the stock markets are shaky and that the outlook is not exactly positive. but i wouldn't dare to short.

For example today their index were up roughly 2-3% with this new summit agreement ; by the end of next week I'm exepecting it to of dropped by 5-7% as markets realise it's not really changed much at all.

Next 3 years- if France and Germany basically take on the debts of the whole euro zone it will become very expensive for them to borrow so will have to implement large austerity, so further contracting their economies. That's if they manage to keep it together. The BRICs are all looking like slowing so not much help there. Got quite a way to go until the cycle starts to turn.

[fletchsmile]

You could use the futures and options markets, to sell futures or buy put options.

An alternative would be buying ETF funds, such as:

"XC4S" - which provides a return based on the inverse daily performance of the CAC40. So when the CAC goes down 1% your investment goes up approximately 1%

"FRS2" provides 2 x inverse daily movement in CAC. So for every 1% down per day on the CAC, your ETF approximates 2% up.

"XSDX" is a similar 1 x short fund for the Dax and "a similar 2 x short leveraged fund for Dax.

These are simpler in concept for many people than futures and options, as you can buy thru brokers in similar ways to shares.

[schlog]

put funds up etc on the line for the rubbish countries the more risky and worse it will be for their own economies; as is starting to being shown in their bonds price.

the economies of Germany and France have been booming in times with multiple yields on their sovereign bonds. neither present nor historic bond prices, respectively bond yields, reflect necessarily the state of the economies.

having said so, i agree that the stock markets are shaky and that the outlook is not exactly positive. but i wouldn't dare to short.

me too. better short on England. England is on the way being less important then Aserbaidschan in a few years........

[Naam]

put funds up etc on the line for the rubbish countries the more risky and worse it will be for their own economies; as is starting to being shown in their bonds price.

the economies of Germany and France have been booming in times with multiple yields on their sovereign bonds. neither present nor historic bond prices, respectively bond yields, reflect necessarily the state of the economies.

having said so, i agree that the stock markets are shaky and that the outlook is not exactly positive. but i wouldn't dare to short.

For example today their index were up roughly 2-3% with this new summit agreement ; by the end of next week I'm exepecting it to of dropped by 5-7% as markets realise it's not really changed much at all.

Next 3 years- if France and Germany basically take on the debts of the whole euro zone it will become very expensive for them to borrow so will have to implement large austerity, so further contracting their economies. That's if they manage to keep it together. The BRICs are all looking like slowing so not much help there. Got quite a way to go until the cycle starts to turn.

what does "of dropped by 5-7%" mean?

[mccw]

You could use the futures and options markets, to sell futures or buy put options.

An alternative would be buying ETF funds, such as:

"XC4S" - which provides a return based on the inverse daily performance of the CAC40. So when the CAC goes down 1% your investment goes up approximately 1%

"FRS2" provides 2 x inverse daily movement in CAC. So for every 1% down per day on the CAC, your ETF approximates 2% up.

"XSDX" is a similar 1 x short fund for the Dax and "a similar 2 x short leveraged fund for Dax.

These are simpler in concept for many people than futures and options, as you can buy thru brokers in similar ways to shares.

Thanks very much. Exactly the sort of info I was looking for.

[JurgenG]

put funds up etc on the line for the rubbish countries the more risky and worse it will be for their own economies; as is starting to being shown in their bonds price.

the economies of Germany and France have been booming in times with multiple yields on their sovereign bonds. neither present nor historic bond prices, respectively bond yields, reflect necessarily the state of the economies.

having said so, i agree that the stock markets are shaky and that the outlook is not exactly positive. but i wouldn't dare to short.

me too. better short on England. England is on the way being less important then Aserbaidschan in a few years........

It may be too early to rejoice. A battle has been won but the war is far from over. We shouldn't make the same mistake than Bush Jr. and his "Mission accomplished".

It's good that the UK has been sidelined, they've always been the trojan horse of the financial services sector, the same people that are responsible for all the trouble the world suffers since 2007. Is what is good for the City really that good for England ? I've doubt but I'm not English and ultimately, it is none of my business.

The financial services sector has been dealt a big blow but these people are resourceful. I'm more optimistic than Naam but I will agree with him that the stock markets will remain shaky for a while. Maybe not the best time to invest for an unexperienced player.

[lannarebirth]

put funds up etc on the line for the rubbish countries the more risky and worse it will be for their own economies; as is starting to being shown in their bonds price.

the economies of Germany and France have been booming in times with multiple yields on their sovereign bonds. neither present nor historic bond prices, respectively bond yields, reflect necessarily the state of the economies.

having said so, i agree that the stock markets are shaky and that the outlook is not exactly positive. but i wouldn't dare to short.

For example today their index were up roughly 2-3% with this new summit agreement ; by the end of next week I'm exepecting it to of dropped by 5-7% as markets realise it's not really changed much at all.

Next 3 years- if France and Germany basically take on the debts of the whole euro zone it will become very expensive for them to borrow so will have to implement large austerity, so further contracting their economies. That's if they manage to keep it together. The BRICs are all looking like slowing so not much help there. Got quite a way to go until the cycle starts to turn.

I don't think there's a forecaster alive that isn't expecting some degree of recession in Europe next year. I'm sure a mild one is already priced into the market and maybe even one a bit more dire. Yes there could be further weakness in the stock markets, but with everything on the table including extra-democratic measure and assistance from overseas central banks I wouldn't want to be short and wake up to a 5% gap up one day on some "surprise" move by central bankers.

[Naam]

i still don't get the meaning of

by the end of next week I'm exepecting it to of dropped by 5-7%

is "of dropped" a financial term i'm not familiar with?

[mccw]

i still don't get the meaning of

by the end of next week I'm exepecting it to of dropped by 5-7%

is "of dropped" a financial term i'm not familiar with?

I mean lower by 5 to 7 % compared to yesterday's close. Down and up is common language for higher and lower no?

I'm not a seasoned stockmarket player at all. But I do notice certain things and could of made alot of money if I'd of had the balls to follow my thoughts with cash and play this volatility from the start. Obviously their is alot of risk; I've got a family, so I'm thinking to just play with a few small positions with spare cash now I can afford to do so.

Do you think shorting the cac Monday morning is a bad idea then? Every other summit there has been the same senario I describe has played out same way pity much.

[Naam]

I mean lower by 5 to 7 % compared to yesterday's close. Down and up is common language for higher and lower no?

my question is not related to "down or up". inspite of the fact that i am a non-native english speaker i am also familiar with the expression "dropped".

but i would like to know the meaning of "of dropped by".

by the end of next week I'm exepecting it to of dropped by 5-7%

the same applies to:

could of made alot of money if I'd of had the balls

[lannarebirth]

i still don't get the meaning of

by the end of next week I'm exepecting it to of have dropped by 5-7%

is "of dropped" a financial term i'm not familiar with?

I mean lower by 5 to 7 % compared to yesterday's close. Down and up is common language for higher and lower no?

I'm not a seasoned stockmarket player at all. But I do notice certain things and could of have made alot of money if I'd of have had the balls to follow my thoughts with cash and play this volatility from the start. Obviously their is alot of risk; I've got a family, so I'm thinking to just play with a few small positions with spare cash now I can afford to do so.

Do you think shorting the cac Monday morning is a bad idea then? Every other summit there has been the same senario I describe has played out same way pity much.

[Naam]

enigma solved? native english speaking Mrs Naam claims "of" = grammatical slang for "have". can anybody confirm?

[Naam]

oops! just realised that LRB was faster than my wife

[lannarebirth]

oops! just realised that LRB was faster than my wife

Well, there's still plenty of work to be done on that post if Mrs. Naam's up to it.

[SaNim]

1323559232[/url]' post='4904239']

I mean lower by 5 to 7 % compared to yesterday's close. Down and up is common language for higher and lower no?

my question is not related to "down or up". inspite of the fact that i am a non-native english speaker i am also familiar with the expression "dropped".

but i would like to know the meaning of "of dropped by".

by the end of next week I'm exepecting it to of dropped by 5-7%

the same applies to:

could of made alot of money if I'd of had the balls

Replace most of the "of"'s with "have"'s and I think you will have ("of") had your answer!

[BlackJack]

oops! just realised that LRB was faster than my wife

and LRB is Little River Band ?

[GreenSnapper]

Ghetto speak is da nu internet speek.

[mccw]

i still don't get the meaning of

by the end of next week I'm exepecting it to of have dropped by 5-7%

is "of dropped" a financial term i'm not familiar with?

I mean lower by 5 to 7 % compared to yesterday's close. Down and up is common language for higher and lower no?

I'm not a seasoned stockmarket player at all. But I do notice certain things and could of have made alot of money if I'd of have had the balls to follow my thoughts with cash and play this volatility from the start. Obviously their is alot of risk; I've got a family, so I'm thinking to just play with a few small positions with spare cash now I can afford to do so.

Do you think shorting the cac Monday morning is a bad idea then? Every other summit there has been the same senario I describe has played out same way pity much.

U jokers have wAaaay too much time on your hands!

[Naam]

i still don't get the meaning

is "of dropped" a financial term i'm not familiar with?

U jokers have wAaaay too much time on your hands!

i should of kept quiet instead of trying to improve my linguistic base. but that would of meant breaking my head whether "of dropped" is a financial term i of never heard of :jap:

[mccw]

If I was trying to explain to a non English speaker the slang meaning of the word "anal" this would be a very useful example. Cheers; but there are plenty like this all over Thai visa already.

[Naam]

If I was trying to explain to a non English speaker the slang meaning of the word "anal" this would be a very useful example. Cheers; but there are plenty like this all over Thai visa already.

i wonder why you have a problem with a simple question. you should of used plain english. but peace now! agreed?