Smoke, Smog, Dust 2012 Chiang Mai

[nikster]

Question: There is no rain in the forecast for the next week or so. Can anyone there in CM speculate on whether or not the air will return to 120+ levels soon? I'm wondering if the last rains soaked the ground so much that burning is not possible, or will it be "burning as usual" throughout Sonkgran, leading to very bad air right after?

Burning is still possible. This photo was taken about 1/2 hour ago. Fire above the Royal Navy station on Doi Suthep road:

This was taken a few minutes ago. The fire is burning up the ridgeline now:

EDIT- added this photo. The fire has burned a good ways up the ridge from where it started:

That would explain the visibly bad air yesterday... I had hoped that was over by now but apparently we need a daily shower to keep things fresh...

[scotbeve]

Keeping it pinned means that anyone visiting this sub-forum & contemplating relocating to Chiang Mai is well aware of the pollution problems they will encounter.

True.. I kind of agree with that.. And as FarangBha said, anything that has the potential to slow down the current Farang Tsunami that's hitting Chiang Mai's shores is worth doing.

How about a mix: Pin (and close) a new topic named something like 'Chiang Mai F.A.Q.' or 'Chiang Mai Famous Topics' and in there in the first post link a bunch of very useful discussions that tend to come up again and again. This one could be one of them. That means the list of pinned topics doesn't extend because some of them can be un-pinned and then linked from that new post. (Including the Immigration one, Doctors and specialists, and the CM Google Map.)

Could there be an archive with segregated issues within the subject realm? EG: Smog technical charts (one of my favorites BTW...) for each year, starting say.... 2000 onwards? Or am I getting too retentive? And perhaps other "quick link" subjects...

[scotbeve]

Question: There is no rain in the forecast for the next week or so. Can anyone there in CM speculate on whether or not the air will return to 120+ levels soon? I'm wondering if the last rains soaked the ground so much that burning is not possible, or will it be "burning as usual" throughout Sonkgran, leading to very bad air right after?

Burning is still possible. This photo was taken about 1/2 hour ago. Fire above the Royal Navy station on Doi Suthep road:

This was taken a few minutes ago. The fire is burning up the ridgeline now:

EDIT- added this photo. The fire has burned a good ways up the ridge from where it started:

Why is it that a large amount of burning is done by the military???? For all the years I've lived here in CM and the province, some of the main culprits are the military on / around their bases. I'll bet I can drive 1 or 2 kms from where I am right now and find some military fires blazing away....

[MESmith]

Why is it that a large amount of burning is done by the military???? For all the years I've lived here in CM and the province, some of the main culprits are the military on / around their bases. I'll bet I can drive 1 or 2 kms from where I am right now and find some military fires blazing away....

Stray "live rounds" setting the vegetation on fire?

[chiang mai]

Question: There is no rain in the forecast for the next week or so. Can anyone there in CM speculate on whether or not the air will return to 120+ levels soon? I'm wondering if the last rains soaked the ground so much that burning is not possible, or will it be "burning as usual" throughout Sonkgran, leading to very bad air right after?

Burning is still possible. This photo was taken about 1/2 hour ago. Fire above the Royal Navy station on Doi Suthep road:

This was taken a few minutes ago. The fire is burning up the ridgeline now:

EDIT- added this photo. The fire has burned a good ways up the ridge from where it started:

Why is it that a large amount of burning is done by the military???? For all the years I've lived here in CM and the province, some of the main culprits are the military on / around their bases. I'll bet I can drive 1 or 2 kms from where I am right now and find some military fires blazing away....

My guess(es) would be wealthy landowners with good connections get the use of such labour, or, the military does not regard itself as being obliged to follow any "no burning" rules.

[scotbeve]

Why is it that a large amount of burning is done by the military???? For all the years I've lived here in CM and the province, some of the main culprits are the military on / around their bases. I'll bet I can drive 1 or 2 kms from where I am right now and find some military fires blazing away....

Stray "live rounds" setting the vegetation on fire?

Well "caught" Mr. Smith!!

[scotbeve]

Question: There is no rain in the forecast for the next week or so. Can anyone there in CM speculate on whether or not the air will return to 120+ levels soon? I'm wondering if the last rains soaked the ground so much that burning is not possible, or will it be "burning as usual" throughout Sonkgran, leading to very bad air right after?

Burning is still possible. This photo was taken about 1/2 hour ago. Fire above the Royal Navy station on Doi Suthep road:

This was taken a few minutes ago. The fire is burning up the ridgeline now:

EDIT- added this photo. The fire has burned a good ways up the ridge from where it started:

Why is it that a large amount of burning is done by the military???? For all the years I've lived here in CM and the province, some of the main culprits are the military on / around their bases. I'll bet I can drive 1 or 2 kms from where I am right now and find some military fires blazing away....

My guess(es) would be wealthy landowners with good connections get the use of such labour, or, the military does not regard itself as being obliged to follow any "no burning" rules.

I believe you're correct on both counts there chiang mai!

[jonwilly]

Worth a read

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17704116

john

[Mapguy]

Yes, the BBC article is worth a read. Regrettably, to read the full report discussed in the article requires a subscription of about 1000 baht.

There are some really nasty numbers suggested in estimating the number of premature deaths caused annually.

There are a couple of things in the article that drew my attention as pertinent to Chiang Mai.

One is a reference to the traffic pollution as particularly deadly because:

"Cars and lorries emit right by where people live and work and so have a greater impact," explains lead author Steven Barrett.

Official monitoring of air pollution in Chiang Mai with its two stations for the entire province (and in Thailand generally) is hardly adequate to measure this "local impact." Traffic pollution in Chiang Mai is not yet particularly dense as cities go, but when and where individuals travel and live is probably fairly significant. Sat on a motorbike in back of an idling or accelerating songtao or truck lately with its engine last tuned in 1950? New diesel engine designs bring emissions reductions, but it will take a long, long time to clear the roads of older vehicles. And --- sigh! --- more and more vehicles will be on the road and probably be driven greater distances (as has been shown in the USA).

Another reference is made to PM<2.5, the really minute particulate matter that is small enough to enter the blood stream. Research seems to indicate that that's the really insidious stuff both in both short and long-term exposure. Recall that PM<2.5 adds up to 40 - 60% of PM<10 pollution.

The UK is currently facing the threat of prosecution by the European Union for serial violations of air-quality standards.

But the new study suggests that 40% of the key pollutant, PM2.5 (particles up to 2.5 micrometres in diameter) comes from abroad.

"The EU-attributable particulates in London are likely to have significantly contributed to the violations, because they raised the background concentration on which local short-term peaks were superimposed," explains Steven Barrett.

Now, without going off on the Burmese, it is true that PM<2.5 do stay aloft higher, longer and farther than heavier particulates. (Road and construction dust settles relatively quickly.) Just how high, how long and how far they travel (particularly considering ranges of intervening mountains and prevailing winds) is probably not known. In any case, it would seem more immediately helpful and feasible to pay attention to what is going on in Central and Northern Thailand.

Otherwise, the reference to problems in EU with meeting standards, as well as elsewhere (as briefly highlighted by Priceless above) should give us some pause before lambasting much less economically-developed nations and peoples in dealing with these problems. That, of course, doesn't mean that the pressure shouldn't be applied.

[puck2]

After all these discussions about smoke/smog statistics -manipulated or not - let us come down to earth, to the reality.

What happens when the (legal) limits are trespassed

a. in Thailand

b. in the US

c. in GB

d. in the other countries of the EU ?

What are the consequences if the pollution limits are exceeded?

Are there any actions taken to protect the people in advance or when it happens?

[orang37]

Sawasdee Khrup,

Thanks Khun JonWilly for the link to that interesting BBC article, and thanks to Khun MapGuy for a thoughtful analysis of the abstract available for the source scientific publication on which the BBC article is based.

In the abstract, imho, these wide-ranging estimates: " uncertainty in premature mortality calculations at −80% to +50%, where results have been corrected by a low modeling bias of 28%. The total monetized life loss in the UK is estimated at £6–62bn/year or 0.4–3.5% of gross domestic product."

Certainly indicate a high uncertainty level; one precluding anything but tentative hypotheses.

However, Khun Mapguy, I certainly agree with your thoughts about direct exposure to traffic emissions both in terms of where you live, and how often, and where, you travel.

I have, long ago, raised the issue here, on TV CM's various weather-pollution threads, of seasonal variations in wind patterns, and the annual "high-pollution" season here, and have never found a satisfactory source of information on them, yet: although, it does seem a common assumption is: that the nature of the Ping Valley can be considered a "bowl," and that Chiang Mai does, at times, reach "inversion layer" conditions where the air is trapped.

An assumption I "buy."

If only we could know more hard data about the extent of 2.5 pollution here, wind patterns, the extent to which sources of our local Chiang Mai city pollution are from outside the greater Chiang Mai Province (Jungwat) area, or even Thailand's borders.

Many thanks to you and Priceless, and ChiangMaiExpat, and many others, for keeping this thread "up on higher ground:" a very vital and interesting source of data, debate, and analysis !

best, ~o:37;

Edited April 18, 2012 by orang37

[Mapguy]

I think there is probably a lot of archival data available somewhere from the Thai Meterological Department, but I've never pursued that problem. Probably in Thai.

I did find this site which is at least good for surface winds: http://www.windguru.cz/int/index.php?sc=116783 You might want to contact the paragliders for more information about winds, especially at higher altitudes. There's bound to be more information on winds available someplace.

[khunphil]

And this morning, Yupparaj showing 467 for SO2 at 6am ... an honest mistake ;-)

P.

[naboo]

And this morning, Yupparaj showing 467 for SO2 at 6am ... an honest mistake ;-)

P.

A SongTaew drove past at the moment the sample was taken?

[Priceless]

[...]

I have, long ago, raised the issue here, on TV CM's various weather-pollution threads, of seasonal variations in wind patterns, and the annual "high-pollution" season here, and have never found a satisfactory source of information on them, yet: although, it does seem a common assumption is: that the nature of the Ping Valley can be considered a "bowl," and that Chiang Mai does, at times, reach "inversion layer" conditions where the air is trapped.

An assumption I "buy."

[...]

When I first started taking an interest in the Chiang Mai pollution issues, back in 2007/2008, this was the 'conventional wisdom' on the forum. At the time I thought it sounded intuitively reasonable and went along with the hypothesis.

However, starting in 2009 the PCD has been posting data from a lot more measuring stations in the Upper North. Assuming that the mountains surrounding Chiang Mai on three sides serve to 'lock in' pollution in the 'bowl', one would expect pollution levels outside the 'bowl' to be lower than inside it. Admitting that we still only have four (or even three) years of data, it still seems that the opposite is true:

As you can see from the graph, the average pollution level during the 'hazy season' in Chiang Mai is actually the lowest in the region. To me this can most likely be interpreted as the mountains shielding Chiang Mai from pollution coming from the outside, rather than locking it in. Seeing that the most polluted provinces are Mae Hong Son and Chiang Rai, it appears that the major pollution culprit would be Myanmar. (The levels for Mae Sai look downright scary, but there is still not enough data from there to draw any far-reaching conclusions.)

/ Priceless

PS I have excluded Phrae from my graph since there's only three years of data available from there, and the hazy season of the first year (2010) looks very suspicious.

[Mapguy]

I'm sure that almost everyone has tuned out of this discussion. I sympathize with that --- the air is generally really dirty seasonally; what else do you need to know? --- but I think Priceless' contribution is an excellent step forward for those who are hanging on!

Now, how to control for seasonal prevailing winds? I have mentioned this site before but it is really inadequate: http://www.windguru....x.php?sc=116783 . Looking at some other met station (surface wind) data suggests that seasonal winds (mid-February - mid April) are light and variable with a gradual monsoon change to the S/SW. Pretty much where we are now. Is this a reflection of wind patterns at higher altitudes? I suspect pretty much so, but I have been too lazy to dig up the data. Where is a Thai meteorologist when we need him ?!

In the meantime, I have had no real luck so far elsewhere tracking down the relationship of airborne particulate matter and winds. For example, how high, how long, how far would PM<2.5 travel; and I suppose that I should add how much of it would create a problem once it falls to earth.

I like the notion of the mountains protecting Chiang Mai although that "protection" is obviously limited by area burning on this side of the mountains. Further, I suspect that Chiang Mai gets a heavy dose of airborne pollution from the Central Plains during the season because Chiang Mai is not so closed off topographically on the south from whence winds often blow during the burning season.

[anselpixel]

One of a half dozen fires burning outside Chom Thong on Friday afternoon. I spent a couple of hours walking around behind a farmer who stopped every few steps to set fire to rice stubble. He was being modest. The neighbors were burning off hundreds of acres so they can begin putting in cash crops other than rice.

It's happening, and there's no practical way to stop it.

[T_Dog]

The farmers just got done with soy bean harvesting so now the chaff is being burned in the fields. Meanwhile, the forests are still being burned. Here is a photo I took earlier in the day of what is usually a lovely view. This fire got quite out of control and burned a large area until the hot winds died down. I am a bit surprised the air quality is staying as good as it is with the amount of burning going on in the rural areas.

[Mapguy]

We don't know how high, how long, and how far PM<10 stays aloft.

If you are looking at the effects of wind, atmospheric pressure, and topography on air pollution, atmospheric conditions can be found here:

http://www.cmmet.tmd.go.th/upperair/FlightReport.txt

Regarding topography, the Chiang Mai reporting station is at 314m. The elevation of Doi Suthep is 1676m. The elevation of Doi Inthanon is 2565m. The topographical profile of the mountains surrounding Chiang Mai is obviously complex. When you look at the potential impact of PM<10 air pollution traveling from distant places (i.e., elsewhere in Thailand, Burma and Laos) the terrain is really complex, especially to the west.

Now, if those of you who have a supercomputer in your spare room would just start doing some modeling...!

My casual guess is that burning on the Central Plains, on the valley plain and on the interior slopes of the surrounding mountains is by far the most serious challenge to air quality in Chiang Mai.

[nikster]

@priceless, yeah perhaps the mountains are indeed shielding more than they keep in - pollution is the worst in mae sai, chiang rai, and often also mae hong son. Went on a visa run last week and as soon as I was in the mountains north of mae rim, the air got way worse, stayed bad all the way to mae sai, several severe pollution zones on the way, and several large fires.

[kaptainrob]

Wife and I drove 860km's from Yasothon a month ago and the air quality was appalling all the way from ~Khon Kaen to Chiang Mai. It is NOT just a CM problem.

In the month we've been here, air quality has not caused any discomfort although I'd love a clearer view of the mountains.

I personally doubt there will ever be significant change in the seasonal burning off ... it's up to Mother Nature to bring on storms to clear the atmosphere.

[lumply]

Anecdotal, but today (Feb 17th) seems like the worst yet. No sign of the sun until 8.30 and as I write the scene outside has a sickly dull orange glow that reminds me of countless post apocalypse movies. Your reporter in Nong Hoi.

...or Hong Kong

[mcgriffith]

Allow me a bit of somewhat sarcastic poetic license here.

Two employees of a state owned entity, within view of my building, late afternoon today.

"hey Somchai, pooyai says we gotta get rid of this heap of rubbish by tomorrow!"

"sure bro, can do. Do you have a lighter?"

Half hour later:

"hey wet tree branches not burning so good- you have another can of benzene?"

[T_Dog]

Last week I saw a good smokey burn right across the highway from one of the "Stop Burning" billboards that have been put up. Would have made a great photo had I been carrying my camera.

[Tywais]

Last week I saw a good smokey burn right across the highway from one of the "Stop Burning" billboards that have been put up. Would have made a great photo had I been carrying my camera.

Would have been even more classic if the sign was burning too.

[villagefarang]

Last week I saw a good smokey burn right across the highway from one of the "Stop Burning" billboards that have been put up. Would have made a great photo had I been carrying my camera.

Would have been even more classic if the sign was burning too.

Hope someone has a camera on them when they finally get around to disposing of the signs by burning them.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Jeez, is this topic still going? It's almost June!

[T_Dog]

Jeez, is this topic still going? It's almost June!

Now it's almost July and this is of course the thread that will never die! Here is a photo taken today as the farmers prepare for rice planting. Yesterday a road was closed as the flames were going completely across the lane. Luckily the wind patterns have been brisk enough to carry the smoke away unless one is directly down wind.

[MESmith]

Jeez, is this topic still going? It's almost June!

Now it's almost July and this is of course the thread that will never die! Here is a photo taken today as the farmers prepare for rice planting. Yesterday a road was closed as the flames were going completely across the lane. Luckily the wind patterns have been brisk enough to carry the smoke away unless one is directly down wind.

Been like that every day for the last 3 or 4 weeks down our way

[T_Dog]

Jeez, is this topic still going? It's almost June!

Now it's almost July and this is of course the thread that will never die! Here is a photo taken today as the farmers prepare for rice planting. Yesterday a road was closed as the flames were going completely across the lane. Luckily the wind patterns have been brisk enough to carry the smoke away unless one is directly down wind.

Been like that every day for the last 3 or 4 weeks down our way

Yep... Same here.