Thailand Expects 'Long-Term' Labour Shortage As Asian Integration Rises

[JohnnyGray]

From an article in the China Post April 10, 2012:

In the face of closer economic integration in South-east Asia and the opening up of Myanmar's economy, Thailand may be confronted with a shortage of workers in the longer term.

“What we are concerned about is the flow of labour that will take place after the market is liberalized (in 2015). A labour shortage is among our top concerns,” said Sutapa Amornvivat, chief economist at Siam Commercial Bank's Economic Intelligence Centre.

All ASEAN countries were likely to badly need workers, particularly unskilled labor, as the number of planned investment projects would increase.

“These unskilled labourers could flow back to those countries and Thailand could suffer shortages,” Sutapa noted.

A number of investment projects expected in these countries, including Myanmar, would require intensive labour, mostly unskilled, she said.

With Burma poised to open up its economy, inviting more direct investment and creating more jobs, Thailand may face a shortage of unskilled labour from neighbouring countries. South-east Asia's second-largest economy has seen human capital development at a certain level for some time and most Thai workers were now doing skilled tasks.

“A number of unskilled labourers in Thailand will move back to their own countries like Burma, which are about to open their economies,” said Somprawin Manprasert, an assistant professor of Economics at Chulalongkorn University.

After Burma opens its economy, many economists and investors expect a surge in direct investment, particularly labour-intensive industries.

So far, the government has not provided a clear plan in response to a possible shift of unskilled labour, he said. “We may not only need to think about the economy, but also require social development in the country.”

Thailand may need to reposition itself for industries that are closely linked to its workforce, as the Europe, the United States and Japan did many years ago.

Somprawin cautioned: “If we do not think about it, we may not be able to develop our economy further. Some industries by nature need a competitive advantage in labour, mostly unskilled.”

[Berkshire]

Translation: There may be a shortage of cheap labor come 2015. Which means Thailand may have to increase wages. Not necessarily a bad thing, if these predictions actually come true.

[GuestHouse]

Translation: There may be a shortage of cheap labor come 2015. Which means Thailand may have to increase wages. Not necessarily a bad thing, if these predictions actually come true.

Indeed but Thailand has failed to educate its people and therefore is having difficulty moving further up the economic ladder from producer of cheap goods and services to producer of added value/higher end goods and services.

Worry not, the sisters of Isaan will come to the rescue.

[Soutpeel]

"These unskilled labourers could flow back to those countries and Thailand could suffer shortages,” Sutapa noted"

Well how about employing Thai nationals as unskilled labourers to make up for the short fall then ?

[JohnnyGray]

"These unskilled labourers could flow back to those countries and Thailand could suffer shortages,” Sutapa noted"

Well how about employing Thai nationals as unskilled labourers to make up for the short fall then ?

Not enough unemployed people to fill the gap if the Burmese, Cambodians, Vietnamese and Lao go home, officially less than 2% of Thais are without work and they're probably either between jobs or working in the black-market economy

[Berkshire]

"These unskilled labourers could flow back to those countries and Thailand could suffer shortages,” Sutapa noted"

Well how about employing Thai nationals as unskilled labourers to make up for the short fall then ?

It would seem that "unskilled labourers" is a synonym for "jobs that nobody wants because the work is hard and the pay is low." Sort of like the work that Mexican illegals in the US do when they sneak over.