Thai Expert Warns Of Another Quake In Andaman Region

[webfact]

Expert warns of another quake in Andaman region

Saowanee Nimpanpayungwong

The Nation

BANGKOK: A fierce earthquake from the Nicobar Islands could strike over Songkran, sending a tsunami crashing into the Andaman Coast, an expert warned yesterday after finding that the 8.6magnitude Sumatran tremor three days ago was exceptionally deep.

"Whenever there is a quake rooted in the [Earth's] mantle, a following quake will be likely in the next few days," said Professor Thanawat Jaruphongsakul, a senior seismologist at Chulalongkorn University.

Fear of another devastating tsunami panicked Thailand and Southeast Asia on Wednesday.

An underwater quake, with its epicentre at the Nicobar Islands, about 150 kilometres north of Aceh on Sumatra, would affect six coastal provinces of Thailand on the Andaman Sea, especially Ranong, which lies closest to a fault line connecting with the Nicobar Islands, he said.

The quakes on Wednesday originated from mantle level crust, 20 kilometres below the Earth's surface, which is regarded as a layer that would cause very high magnitude tremblers.

The quake that hit Japan in March came from a shallower layer, so it would take up to 100-150 years for the next quake. However Wednesday's quakes, with their epicentre at Aceh, followed just eight years after the massive one that triggered a continent wide tsunami that killed hundreds of thousands of people in many countries, he said.

"Why did Wednesday's quakes emerge just eight years afterwards? This is new to most seismologists and geologists, who are unfamiliar with quakes with depth rooting to the mantle layer," he said.

Seismologists were closely watching and cautiously studying the 9.0 quake that devastated Sendai in Japan on March 11 last year. The first tremor on March 9 was recorded at 7.3 on the Richter scale. That one was understood by seismologists as the main shock, but there were two aftershocks on an even greater scale at 9.0 on March 11 that followed, he said.

The tsunamis created on Wednesday were not powerful or harmfully high because the quake was the horizontal dipslide type. But a mantle based quake at an island with active underwater volcanoes located north of the Nicobar Islands would probably be a vertical strikeslip type, which would directly impact the six Thai coastal provinces, and possibly deluge them with tsunamis, he added.

Professor Michio Hashzume, a well known Japanese seismologist, said Wednesday's quakes were a new type known to have started in the mantle. It was difficult to tell whether a new quake would follow within a few days, like the Sendai quakes, which were similar to Wednesday's quakes. Then there was a 7.3, followed by a 9.0 two days later.

If there are quakes near the Nicobar Islands, they may cause huge collapses in the seabed and outer crust. The seabed may rise and form new islands, he said.

-- The Nation 2012-04-13

[kurnell]

Reckon a meteor could hit over Songkran too. How about a super volcano, haven't had one of them in a while. Though I'm no 'expert'

[londonthai]

nobody can ever say, when the quake will strike, so be ready for any coming

[x5david]

Thai expert...sounds like an oxymoron....anyway, pretty good guess. Quakes of that magnitude are often followed by many days or weeks of after shocks.

[Rionoir]

LOL... Thai expert saying how he's the only one in the world who knows about these types of quakes. He should get this story in a Thai paper, they are the only people that might actually believe him.

[geriatrickid]

That's right mock the gentleman. Only Farangs know.

As is reported. The Sendai quake had a similiar scenario. What's wrong with being prudent?

[salavan]

expect the thai baht to get stronger if there's a tsnami

[CockneyGit]

That's right mock the gentleman. Only Farangs know.

As is reported. The Sendai quake had a similiar scenario. What's wrong with being prudent?

Well said. A so called Thai "expert" predicted a quake would strike in Kanchanaburi a couple of years ago, one of the least "active" places in the region, and everyone though he was out of his mind.

Then begger me sideways, it hit in Si Sawat district. Nothing too serious (3.7), but it still happened. These guys have access to top-end technology so when they speak it's prudent to listen.

[Soupdragon]

No technology exists to measure pressures and stresses at the depths we are talking about. Any predictions are largely based on historical data and are at best a guess.

[ezzra]

" Thai experts" yeah right, please don't get me started,,

[majhiggins]

Thailand might have countries around it that have earthquakes but the Thai landmass itself is almost seismically dead. So why would a Thai "expert" on seismology be very good? Kind of like a Saudi Arabian expert on glaciers, a Mongolian expert on oceanography or a Nigerian expert on ethics. Maybe I should wait another 24-hours before I post this though.

[FunkyGuru]

Thai expert...sounds like an oxymoron....anyway, pretty good guess. Quakes of that magnitude are often followed by many days or weeks of after shocks.

LOL... Thai expert saying how he's the only one in the world who knows about these types of quakes. He should get this story in a Thai paper, they are the only people that might actually believe him.

" Thai experts" yeah right, please don't get me started,,

With due respect, I don't mean to diminish or even belittle any 'expert' ... be it Thai or not. However the subject itself, predicting earthquake, I guess is far too complicated then to make public statements like this. I am sure the gentleman in question has his own 'scientific' reasons to believe in what he believes in.

But yes, indeed the way news was posted here, I could not help but laugh and comment on it. Andaman region is around the great fault line. I am 'guessing'. So the chances of another earthquake there, pretty high. (smart thinking. Einstein). Especially as an after shock to an earthquake that has been rated as 8th biggest in past 100 years?!!! GENIUS.

Just my two satang worth view. I do agree with the above three gents and had a hearty laugh on this Friday the 13th. What a day. For a moment I thought it was April the 1st.

[renaissanc]

The experts may be right, but I hope that people still carry on enjoying themselves. Any kind of accident might happen at any time on any day, but we shouldn't let this stop us living life.

[anterian]

No technology exists to measure pressures and stresses at the depths we are talking about. Any predictions are largely based on historical data and are at best a guess.

whilst this is true, GPS technology enables us to measure plate movements to within millimetres, and also any rapid bulges in land and sea level. In addition magnetometers and gravitometers allow us to detect changes in the mantle. Further there are minor quakes every day, these enable us by analysis of the "P" and "S" waves to also determine what is going on beneath our feet.

So it is a bit more than a guess, we can tell when the conditions are right for a quake, the only guess is the exact moment, it needs a trigger, sometimes another quake, sometimes lunar tidal stresses or isostatic shifts.

[anterian]

Thailand might have countries around it that have earthquakes but the Thai landmass itself is almost seismically dead. So why would a Thai "expert" on seismology be very good? Kind of like a Saudi Arabian expert on glaciers, a Mongolian expert on oceanography or a Nigerian expert on ethics. Maybe I should wait another 24-hours before I post this though.

Ever heard of field trips? By your thinking there are no experts on Antarctica.

[bigbamboo]

Just because a lone voice warns of impending disaster doesn't mean he should be ignored.... like Challenger for example.

OK, so to foreigners Thai experts don't inspire any more belief than Thai fortune tellers but better safe than sorry.

[chameleon1977]

I agree, an easy predication to make. However one shouldn't be so quick to dismiss....after all......the Mayans predicted it first.

Sorry, couldn't resit, didn't try very hard either.

[how241]

I'm no expert but many times earthquakes have several smaller ones to follow the big one.

[blackthorn2005]

" Thai experts" yeah right, please don't get me started,,

"Expert" in scare mongering!

[belg]

i really look forward to 22 of december 2012 for those "thai experts"

[yummypizza]

Any activity should be taken seriously,after all,it happened, if this goes unheeded,then the next warning will be ignored also, and then?

[cloudhopper]

No technology exists to measure pressures and stresses at the depths we are talking about. Any predictions are largely based on historical data and are at best a guess.

whilst this is true, GPS technology enables us to measure plate movements to within millimetres, and also any rapid bulges in land and sea level. In addition magnetometers and gravitometers allow us to detect changes in the mantle. Further there are minor quakes every day, these enable us by analysis of the "P" and "S" waves to also determine what is going on beneath our feet.

So it is a bit more than a guess, we can tell when the conditions are right for a quake, the only guess is the exact moment, it needs a trigger, sometimes another quake, sometimes lunar tidal stresses or isostatic shifts.

Interesting the GPS I use on boats and planes is good to about 10 meters. I was under the impression that even using both of the most sophisticated error correcting methods GPS was good to about 30 cm. Regardless of the instrumentation, I would suggest that earthquakes are a complex, chaotic phenomena that are inherently and even theoretically impossible to predict - when, where, how or how bad. The worst earthquake I experienced was 7.5 in California on a fault no one even knew existed. No reputable scientist would be making the claims of this "expert".

[fxe1200]

Any activity should be taken seriously,after all,it happened, if this goes unheeded,then the next warning will be ignored also, and then?

This post should be moved to "Government politics in Thailand".

[thailandshasse]

No technology exists to measure pressures and stresses at the depths we are talking about. Any predictions are largely based on historical data and are at best a guess.

whilst this is true, GPS technology enables us to measure plate movements to within millimetres, and also any rapid bulges in land and sea level. In addition magnetometers and gravitometers allow us to detect changes in the mantle. Further there are minor quakes every day, these enable us by analysis of the "P" and "S" waves to also determine what is going on beneath our feet.

So it is a bit more than a guess, we can tell when the conditions are right for a quake, the only guess is the exact moment, it needs a trigger, sometimes another quake, sometimes lunar tidal stresses or isostatic shifts.

No technology exists to measure pressures and stresses at the depths we are talking about. Any predictions are largely based on historical data and are at best a guess.

whilst this is true, GPS technology enables us to measure plate movements to within millimetres, and also any rapid bulges in land and sea level. In addition magnetometers and gravitometers allow us to detect changes in the mantle. Further there are minor quakes every day, these enable us by analysis of the "P" and "S" waves to also determine what is going on beneath our feet.

So it is a bit more than a guess, we can tell when the conditions are right for a quake, the only guess is the exact moment, it needs a trigger, sometimes another quake, sometimes lunar tidal stresses or isostatic shifts.

My friend.

I really hope you and the expert,are wrong, but maybe we should wait and pray, this not happens.

It,s enough with sad and terrible things here in Thailand and even in the nabour countries, and we

DON,T NEED THIS ALSO !

Please pray, and hope, it,s not happens !

Hasse

[Xonax]

Thai expert...sounds like an oxymoron....anyway, pretty good guess. Quakes of that magnitude are often followed by many days or weeks of after shocks.

You don´t have to be an expert to know this.

[Shurup]

Anyone remember "an expert" who predicted the Dam would collapse over the new year and flood BKK and everything else downstream? Well many Thais believed that and they went home upcountry for the new year. Nothing happened and the "expert" (80 y.o. dude, was probably hight on Yaba and hallucinating) was charged a whole 300 baht (or something like this in a laughing range) for disrupting a local tourism and a loss of revenue as a result.

[unanimosity]

When LOFS is able to correctly predict what time television programs will begin and end, how many tourists will arrive, the fate of Mr. T, floods, the shelf life of som tom, and terrorist activity even when warned; then go ahead and take a leap of faith in the face of USGS and other scientific authorities that--after decades of monitoring the San Andreas Fault near Los Angeles with state of the art tecnology--do not have a clue when to expect the 'big one.' And you want to bet on a self promoting crapshoot that claims to know what is going on under 20+ kilometers of ocean? A prediction has everything to gain and nothing to lose because quakes cannot be predicted and nobody takes such nonsense seriously. If they handed Al Gore a Nobel Prize for "doctored" climate science and gave Obama one for--what exactly did he do?--then it is a pretty sure bet that when the first earthquake is correctly predicted it will be front page news and the recipient of a Nobel prize. Meanwhile, there's this bridge in Brooklyn that you can pick up for a song and it can be delivered to your very own ranch.....sign here....in the luxurious Everglades.

[unanimosity]

No technology exists to measure pressures and stresses at the depths we are talking about. Any predictions are largely based on historical data and are at best a guess.

whilst this is true, GPS technology enables us to measure plate movements to within millimetres, and also any rapid bulges in land and sea level. In addition magnetometers and gravitometers allow us to detect changes in the mantle. Further there are minor quakes every day, these enable us by analysis of the "P" and "S" waves to also determine what is going on beneath our feet.

So it is a bit more than a guess, we can tell when the conditions are right for a quake, the only guess is the exact moment, it needs a trigger, sometimes another quake, sometimes lunar tidal stresses or isostatic shifts.

Interesting the GPS I use on boats and planes is good to about 10 meters. I was under the impression that even using both of the most sophisticated error correcting methods GPS was good to about 30 cm. Regardless of the instrumentation, I would suggest that earthquakes are a complex, chaotic phenomena that are inherently and even theoretically impossible to predict - when, where, how or how bad. The worst earthquake I experienced was 7.5 in California on a fault no one even knew existed. No reputable scientist would be making the claims of this "expert".

GPS has been used to monitor tectonic slippage but a more finite measurement method is the use of lasers, somewhat akin to the beams that block elevator or garage doors from closing when the beam is interrupted. These lasers are aimed across opposite sides of fault lines and any shift in the plates will cause the beam to misalign from the target receptor and alert scientists. But this does not mean an earthquake is about to happen, only that the plates have shifted.

[cinbkk]

We should get advice from our revered science minister Plodprasop.

[RichardinBKK]

expect the thai baht to get stronger if there's a tsnami

I often make long replies to posts like this, and get back "look up sarcasm" replies from the author. Are you trying to be funny, or have no clue what "strong baht" means?