Sterling To Stengthen This Year

[thenervoussurgeon]

Reading all the projections in the trade papers and online ,even though the British economy is not wonderfull ,the consensus seems to be that the pound is not a bad bet and should strengthen a bit this year

any thoughts on what the pound v the baht will be by year end?

Edited April 29, 2012 by thenervoussurgeon

[TommoPhysicist]

It's been at the same rate for the past 3 years (50).

Going up and down half a baht isn't really that important to me.

November ...... 49.5 to the pound.

Year end ........ 50.5 to the pound.

Edited April 29, 2012 by TommoPhysicist

[Darrel]

It's been at the same rate for the past 3 years (50).

Hardly. Max 57.8, min 46.5

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=THB&view=5Y

[JeremyBowskill]

I will take a wild punt and say 52-53 by year end. Reasons being euro in dire straits, the reasons op mentioned and the olympics having some tiny affect.

Edited April 29, 2012 by JeremyBowskill

[CharlieH]

"It's been at the same rate for the past 3 years (50)"

50 for the last 3 years ? , which planet is that on ?

only a few months ago it was 47 !

Edited April 29, 2012 by CharlieH

[darrendsd]

There is a report regarding what may happen to the Central Bank

http://www.thaivisa....nment-meddling/

If this guy gets in which seems likely expect the Baht to weaken in my humble opinion

Edited April 29, 2012 by darrendsd

[georgey]

was my job for 30 yrs......

both of those economies are in serious trouble.....UK not coz of the govt, but coz of the state of Europe

Thai coz of everything that everyone here acknowledges (& complains about, rightly) (especially corruption) but mostly coz of an element we're not at liberty to doscuss......

things are going to get v bad here when the people realise just how badly they've been treated by the few who have cash gained thru corruption, but who have absolutely nothing to recommend themselves.....for as long as anyone can remember

relatively few people (relative to the total population )trying to maintain an unmaintainable poverty gap

have a look at what happened in Egypt, Libya, Syria, now the Malays are having a go.....

it's going to happen here, for sure - it's not possible to keep this degree of repression going much longer.....

so, my forecast for GBP/THB - much higher - but no idea when.....

[12DrinkMore]

was my job for 30 yrs......

both of those economies are in serious trouble.....UK not coz of the govt, but coz of the state of Europe

Thai coz of everything that everyone here acknowledges (& complains about, rightly) (especially corruption) but mostly coz of an element we're not at liberty to doscuss......

things are going to get v bad here when the people realise just how badly they've been treated by the few who have cash gained thru corruption, but who have absolutely nothing to recommend themselves.....for as long as anyone can remember

relatively few people (relative to the total population )trying to maintain an unmaintainable poverty gap

have a look at what happened in Egypt, Libya, Syria, now the Malays are having a go.....

it's going to happen here, for sure - it's not possible to keep this degree of repression going much longer.....

so, my forecast for GBP/THB - much higher - but no idea when.....

Leaving the UK out of the equation for a change, I am not sure that you can compare what is happening in other countries to Thailand.

All countries have their issues, but apart from the tedious insurgence in the south east, essentially most Thais accept what they have. They do not struggle to find food, housing is available at affordable levels, they do not expect much from the state, laws are not strictly enforced particularly those designed to control social behaviour such as drinking and prostitution, setting up a small business is extremely easy for anyone wanting to try, no health inspector comes around shutting the place down.

There is not the constant undercurrent of "violence" that is evident in those countries you mentioned, there is respect for property, age and wealth.

Hmm, I can see that this theme is going to take some time to develop. Which I don't have.

But as long as the average Thai does not feel restricted in what he/she does, has a roof, food, mobile telephone, TV and cheap beer 24 hours/day, and is not made to feel a second class person, I do not fear some massive uprising.

It would make life unpleasant for the rich and poor alike. And both of those groups do not want that sort of situation.

Edited April 29, 2012 by 12DrinkMore

[transam]

The pound is shit, end of story.

[12DrinkMore]

The pound is shit, end of story.

It is difficult to see where any significant appreciation of the GPB can come from. Interest rates will be at the ZIRP level for the rest of this decade. Merv will and must continue to be the purchaser of UK gov bonds, monetising the increasing indebtedness, the UK is running a significant trading deficit which cannot continue forever, and the UK's main trading partners are in the Eurozone, so the GBP will certainly not be allowed to rise against the EUR. The financial sector is on very shaky grounds and, in any case, is simply collecting its rent from the UK debtors.

On the other hand I am positive about the Asians, running trading surpluses, and have amassed huge amounts of western fiat paper in trying to subdue the rise of their currencies.

[darrendsd]

One of the Governments election promises was to devalue the Baht by 25% in order to help the exporters.

This will of course be have to be devalued against every currency in the world to make it viable.

Reading the thread I posted above it seems they want to put one of their own guys in charge of the Central Bank in order to make this happen.

It doesn't matter how bad other countries are doing, if the Government decide to go ahead with this plan it will be happy days for all of us that bring money in from overseas.

[chris2004]

The Pound has been VERY constant since about April 2010, only a baht or so movement 47-48. I think it will increase over the summer, with the Olympics, to 51-52 but then drop down again. The underlying problems with the UK economy are not going to go away. It would help if interest rates came up but that won't be for a year or two.

[phutoie2]

The pound is shit, end of story.

Hard to disagree with you there!!, we have had our kicking for the last four years. I had a bet with a friend that it would not break 50 this year. Today its TT rate is 49.73, will I lose!.

[thenervoussurgeon]

The pound is up again this morning against the baht and the dollar i personally havnt a clue what is going to happen ,but as to Britain relying on exports to Europe ,well they seem to be going down while exports to the rest of the world are rising ,i know that for some time now my brothers company have been looking outside Europe for their exports.

[Asiantravel]

" even though the British economy is not wonderfull ,the consensus seems to be that the pound is not a bad bet and should strengthen a bit this year"

but based on what economic fundamentals?

[SantiSuk]

" even though the British economy is not wonderfull ,the consensus seems to be that the pound is not a bad bet and should strengthen a bit this year"

but based on what economic fundamentals?

An element of fiscal discipline, seen elsewhere on the planet only in Germany would be my guess. Markets quite like the coalition`s resolve and the general sign-up by the public (or is it resignation?).

[Naam]

" even though the British economy is not wonderfull ,the consensus seems to be that the pound is not a bad bet and should strengthen a bit this year"

but based on what economic fundamentals?

based on the mighty British Empire. RULE BRITANNIA!

[thenervoussurgeon]

" even though the British economy is not wonderfull ,the consensus seems to be that the pound is not a bad bet and should strengthen a bit this year"

but based on what economic fundamentals?

based on the mighty British Empire. RULE BRITANNIA!

See even the mighty Naam thinks we are the best!!!

[12DrinkMore]

One of the Governments election promises was to devalue the Baht by 25% in order to help the exporters.

This will of course be have to be devalued against every currency in the world to make it viable.

Reading the thread I posted above it seems they want to put one of their own guys in charge of the Central Bank in order to make this happen.

It doesn't matter how bad other countries are doing, if the Government decide to go ahead with this plan it will be happy days for all of us that bring money in from overseas.

They have to only devalue against the mighty USD, the root of all forex.

BUT, it is not that easy to achieve. The BoT has already amassed a large chunk of USD in order to hold DOWN the THB against fundamental upward pressure due to net exports and inward investment. And a 25% decrease in the THB would put up fuel and all imports, including all those western goodies you like so much, and the bits brought in from abroad to assemble into those exported goods, and then in a few months time hit the streets as inflation rears its head.

On top of the wage increase that they have introduced.

It would also piss off the rest of Asia.

I would be very surprised if this measure is brought in or even could be brought in.

[darrendsd]

My understanding is that all currencies are linked, for example if you were to transfer baht into USD and then GBP you will get the same amount of money as say transferring Baht into Pounds, give or take a few Baht here and there.

Therefore your view of it only needs to be decreased in USD is not feasible as there would be a major discrepency if the rates of the 3 currencies given were not roughly the same.

Just my opinion.

[Justincase]

The British pound has done one thing consistently over the last 50 years - gradual decline in value every year !! Check out the statistics on the Financial Times currency section - so unless something really dramatic occurs you can expect to see the trend continue

Where will the British pound be at the end of this year ?? Lower than it is today .............................................

[cardholder]

The British pound has done one thing consistently over the last 50 years - gradual decline in value every year !! Check out the statistics on the Financial Times currency section - so unless something really dramatic occurs you can expect to see the trend continue

Where will the British pound be at the end of this year ?? Lower than it is today .............................................

Really:-

XE Currency Table: GBP - British Pound

Mid-market rates as of 2011-04-30 16:00 UTC Currency code ▲▼ Currency name ▲▼ Units per GBP GBP per Unit THB Thai Baht 49.8524848514 0.0200591807

cy Table: GBP - British Pound

Mid-market rates as of 2012-04-30 17:34 UTC Currency code ▲▼ Currency name ▲▼ Units per GBP GBP per Unit THB Thai Baht 49.9337089628 0.0200265516

[12DrinkMore]

My understanding is that all currencies are linked, for example if you were to transfer baht into USD and then GBP you will get the same amount of money as say transferring Baht into Pounds, give or take a few Baht here and there.

Therefore your view of it only needs to be decreased in USD is not feasible as there would be a major discrepency if the rates of the 3 currencies given were not roughly the same.

Just my opinion.

To simplify the thing.

Almost everything in international trade and forex transactions is based on the USD, and has been since around the end of the 2nd world war. Although at that time the USD was fixed to the gold standard. Then Nixon took the USD off the gold standard because the French wanted gold and not bits of paper, since then the world has revolved around the USD with no convertibility to anything physical.

That is the baseline.

There has to be a reference point. It is the USD.

Thailand cannot select a single currency and simply devalue against it. They do not have the same financial clout as for example the Swiss National Bank, which has stated it will send limitless amounts of CHF into the market to buy EUR, essentially pegging the CHF to the EUR at 1.20. A credible threat as the market accepts it, and would take up the CHF, as the CHF is in demand.

But if the Bank of Thailand came in and said it would sell THB and buy GBP there is no credible threat. Nobody would want to exchange GBP for THB as they would understand that the THB was in a process of devaluation and certainly not want THB.

This is a complex subject. But I suspect you are only interested in the GBP/THB exchange rate today. This always goes over the USD.

Essentially Thailand would have to sell THB into the markets and buy USD to devalue the THB. To attempt a 25% exchange rate reduction in a growing and healthy economy would be utterly insane. Maybe I will be totally disappointed, but the Chinese who run the Asian economies would never take this route.

There may be the squabbles about who should be the "head man", but in the end business is business, and the Chinese are not going to screw up their businesses and lifestyles over this.

Edited April 30, 2012 by 12DrinkMore

[GuestHouse]

" even though the British economy is not wonderfull ,the consensus seems to be that the pound is not a bad bet and should strengthen a bit this year"

but based on what economic fundamentals?

based on the mighty British Empire. RULE BRITANNIA!

Corporate UK is sitting on cash reserves of £450 Billion, a number which grew by £80 Billion in the past year of depression, austerity and constant doom mongering - Cash ready for a few mergers and acquisitions and no binding commitment to pay the bills for Greeks, Italians, Spaniards or Irishman (a basket of nations who to be honest have been lecturing the rest of us for the past 50 years or more on how they've found the secret to an easy stress free life - while not working too much and not paying any taxes).

Meanwhile the French are helping themselves to more of the same while political pressure grows within the nation of soap dodgers to devalue the currency in order to make their exports cheaper - (Increasing productivity and efficiency would be too painful) and anyway they can always get the Germans to pay the bill.

And of course German efforts to undermine the London Financial business with a German tax on British trade have been shot down over the sacred ditch.

Meanwhile, corporate Thailand continues along the path of protectionism, cronyism, and government manipulation of the local commodity markets (something which resembles placing their head up their own arse) while its neighbours step up and take their business away.

All of which only confirms that foreigners living anywhere on money held or brought in from overseas ought to spread their bets and hold a basket of currencies, and leave prayers for the fortune of the pound to those of us who regard a strong Pound v a weak Baht as a curse that brings an increase in a particular nasty export from the UK to Thailand

[chainarong]

No different than this year, Word off caution, don't read to much into what experts say , if they really knew what was going to happen do you think they would tell the world , think about it.

[exeter]

" even though the British economy is not wonderfull ,the consensus seems to be that the pound is not a bad bet and should strengthen a bit this year"

but based on what economic fundamentals?

based on the mighty British Empire. RULE BRITANNIA!

Corporate UK is sitting on cash reserves of £450 Billion, a number which grew by £80 Billion in the past year of depression, austerity and constant doom mongering - Cash ready for a few mergers and acquisitions and no binding commitment to pay the bills for Greeks, Italians, Spaniards or Irishman (a basket of nations who to be honest have been lecturing the rest of us for the past 50 years or more on how they've found the secret to an easy stress free life - while not working too much and not paying any taxes).

Meanwhile the French are helping themselves to more of the same while political pressure grows within the nation of soap dodgers to devalue the currency in order to make their exports cheaper - (Increasing productivity and efficiency would be too painful) and anyway they can always get the Germans to pay the bill.

And of course German efforts to undermine the London Financial business with a German tax on British trade have been shot down over the sacred ditch.

Meanwhile, corporate Thailand continues along the path of protectionism, cronyism, and government manipulation of the local commodity markets (something which resembles placing their head up their own arse) while its neighbours step up and take their business away.

All of which only confirms that foreigners living anywhere on money held or brought in from overseas ought to spread their bets and hold a basket of currencies, and leave prayers for the fortune of the pound to those of us who regard a strong Pound v a weak Baht as a curse that brings an increase in a particular nasty export from the UK to Thailand

Just been outside and all in well in LOS, going like a train in fact, why the world does not do what Thailand does is a complete mystery!

[exeter]

Now here in the Crystal Ball Club, I see the strength of sterling currently is at the expense of those wasters across the Channel, they have no idea how to fix their little money devouring little club, or they dont want to face up to tough decisions whikst the Germans are bailing them out.

For my twopenneth, looking through the mists I would looking at 52 for the end of the year, it is of course only a guess, just like everone else whatever graphs, trends or wise words that are used, on the 31st of December, I will either be "the new Naam" or hiding under the covers with a bottle of Sang Som!

[chiang mai]

The Sterling is strengthening because of the risk in Europe, if that play out the way some people fear/hope then concievably it could go higher. But against THB there are problems, home grown inflation is now being unleashed, pay rises have been initiated and according to the chart in the Bangkok Post a few days ago there's a lot of them and they're not small. Manufacturers have held off increasing their prices because of the floods but meanwhile the cost of oil has increased, later this year we're going to see inflation here bite very hard indeed.

So how will the BOT respond, they've ammassed a large pile of USD as a result of selling THB in order to prevent THB from strengthening too much, indeed they will continue that strategy I reckon because there's not a lot of options. Almost certainly an interest rate rise is on the cards for mid year or soon after but will that be enough to contain inflation, a ten per cent devaluation might be another answer but that will put them at odds with the rest of Asean. My bet goes on them increasing interest rates perhaps twice in the short term and if that isn't sufficient, a small devaluation, perhaps - much depends on what happens to USD.

But the issue is Pound/Baht and which ever way you look at things, the Baht is strong and the Pound is fundamentally weak, I guess that the low 50's will be the peak unless the Baht is devalued, the question otherwise is not how weak it will beome against Sterling but how strong, the downside for many of us could be back towards the mid 40's.

[GuestHouse]

Just been outside and all in well in LOS, going like a train in fact, why the world does not do what Thailand does is a complete mystery!

That's was more or less the consensus before the last crash - One day the whole of Thailand was in boom, restaurants were full of Thais throwing back the imported whiskey, not bothering about the huge bill and rejoicing in the property boom. In a matter of weeks it all crashed, the Baht wen through the floor and Thailand imported a flood of expats who thought the recession would last for ever. They never do, not here and not in the west.

But read the news and you'll see Thailand making the same old mistakes while its competitors steadily build their economies.

[exeter]

George, listen. Thailand is impervious to all those outside pressures, the world stops were Thailand ends. Any previous financial accidents were due to "circumstances beyond our control." All the worlds ( Thailands) financial wizards live here and agree, no one can kill the golden goose. As for tourists, just keep coming, leave their money go home and come back again! Thailand knows best, nothing left to learn!