Spike In Violence Raises Questions On Peace Talks: Thai Analysis

[webfact]

ANALYSIS
Spike in violence raises questions on peace talks
Pakorn Puengnetr
The Nation

Insurgents targeting senior officials to avenge ambush, source reveals

BANGKOK: -- The frequent targeted killings of high-ranking officials while a peace dialogue is underway with representatives of the insurgents has raised questions whether the effort is worthwhile as the list of casualties gets longer.

Many analysts said the fewer attacks - almost none of late - on innocent civilians, were not a sign that active insurgents were cooperating with Barasi Revolusi Nasional Coordinate (BRN), as one of many preconditions to resolve the conflict in a non-violent way.

The insurgents have instead turned to revenge attacks on higher-profile targets, which serve their interests better - by demoralising state officials and local residents along with a greater decline in the efficiency of the civilian administration due to constant loss of lives.



The targeted killings have even boosted the morale of government workers sympathetic to the insurgency, and prompted their extensive and direct cooperation, especially tip-offs with precise details about senior officials' travel plans.

An unnamed sympathiser said roadside bomb attacks had previously been conducted randomly against any motorcades or vehicles of state officials, but now attackers, given abundant, time-sensitive tip-offs, could choose freely which vehicles they should attack, or focus mainly on trips involving senior officials.

Before the peace process kicked off on February 28, when representatives of Thai authorities and insurgents signed an agreement at a meeting in Malaysia to seek a peaceful solution to the nine-year-old insurgency, sympathisers had stayed low-profile, secretly providing financial, logistical and moral support to the insurgents.

"But after talks started with the BRN, they are openly showing their support for the insurgency, even announcing at various seminars held at hotels, loudly through microphones, that now it is not an end to the violence that they want, but territory - either through autonomy or even independence. This is the biggest difference in the situation before and after the talks with BRN," he said.

Last week, National Security Council secretary-general Paradorn Pattanathabutr, the key Thai negotiator, admitted in a television interview that future rounds of meetings may need to be skipped, or postponed, if violence continues - although innocent civilians and residential areas have been targeted less frequently lately.

An unnamed community leader said the frequent killings of high-ranking officials were not a result of the talks with BRN, but the insurgents had vowed to avenge an ambush in February at a Marine barracks in which the top 16 insurgents were killed. "They set a ratio of 1 to 5, or 1 to 10, and all targets must be high-ranking officials," he explained.

The peace dialogue has also exposed disunity within the insurgency, while distinguishing between those with an inclination for peace and those aiming purely for separatism, said a military source. "Certain groups of the insurgents are getting confused about the leadership, but not distracted from their cause, whether it's eventual separatism or armed struggle in the meantime."

Many insurgents are attacking the leadership, branding them as weak, and are using a surge in violence to show that they are independent of their control and command, while other groups say the leadership members are seeking personal benefits by choosing the non-violent way. Many of the leaders are on the wanted list, while the operatives can stay underground and operate freely," the source said.


-- The Nation 2013-04-29

[NongKhaiKid]

A Post article covering the talks indicates how Thailand's Chief Negotiator finds the BRN's conditions " hard to accept " and that a leading Democrat calls him " stupid " for making the talks public before actually being agreed on.

It's common around the world for talks like this to be kept secret and denied if necessary in order not to give false hope or scupper them by interference, opposition and so on. With PTP's populist agenda you would have to think they have jumped in too quickly just to look good and it doesn't matter about the country

[Locationthailand]

Even negotiating with terrorists organisations is sheer stupidity. Meanwhile the Police Minister and Army sit in BKK whilst attacks are almost a daily occurrence. You would think looking at the stats on the 'incidents' the army should roll out in full, move south and start culling every household in a pincer movement to round up these animals. No point asking the police. No point asking the govt - it would interrupt the PM's busy shopping or overseas travel schedules selling Thailand as a safe haven for investment.

[chainarong]

As I have repeatedly stated, Thailand, you have no one to blame but yourself, you sat on your hands for thirty years , sat back , talked and talked , did absolutely sfa and now this situation is out of control, biting you on the A!!se , Peace, there will be none, whilst certain people or their cronies walk the corridors of power.

Edited April 29, 2013 by chainarong

[NongKhaiKid]

Even negotiating with terrorists organisations is sheer stupidity. Meanwhile the Police Minister and Army sit in BKK whilst attacks are almost a daily occurrence. You would think looking at the stats on the 'incidents' the army should roll out in full, move south and start culling every household in a pincer movement to round up these animals. No point asking the police. No point asking the govt - it would interrupt the PM's busy shopping or overseas travel schedules selling Thailand as a safe haven for investment.

Yes latest trip to Mongolia resulted in agreement on closer co-operation but in regard to what isn't mentioned. Is she keeping out of the way so as not to be tainted by the nastiest pushing through her brother's personal agenda at all costs ? This insurgency thing is just an irritant and distraction to the real business and won't get the attention it deserves

[simple1]

Even negotiating with terrorists organisations is sheer stupidity. Meanwhile the Police Minister and Army sit in BKK whilst attacks are almost a daily occurrence. You would think looking at the stats on the 'incidents' the army should roll out in full, move south and start culling every household in a pincer movement to round up these animals. No point asking the police. No point asking the govt - it would interrupt the PM's busy shopping or overseas travel schedules selling Thailand as a safe haven for investment.

You have made similar posts a number of times completely overlooking it's insurgency/guerrilla warfare with allegedly 9,000 or so active members, many of whom can infiltrate across the border with Malaysia. So other than talking nonsense, how do you believe a "cull" is going to identify, kill or capture those members. While we are talking about the military, they should be following orders from a civilian government that nearly every few weeks is instructing them to increase their effectiveness with apparently very little outcome.

[Halion]

What the hell did you expect. All the pontification surrounding the talks and these government cretins think that the radical insurgents will not try to esculate their activities. Both the military and the administration are guilty of criminal stupidity.

Every aspect of daily life in the south is a clear indication that the authorities are totally inept and criminaly incapable. How much more blood to they have on thier hands before they will accept their incompotence.

[tomross46]

Even negotiating with terrorists organisations is sheer stupidity. Meanwhile the Police Minister and Army sit in BKK whilst attacks are almost a daily occurrence. You would think looking at the stats on the 'incidents' the army should roll out in full, move south and start culling every household in a pincer movement to round up these animals. No point asking the police. No point asking the govt - it would interrupt the PM's busy shopping or overseas travel schedules selling Thailand as a safe haven for investment.

Malaysia had a unit in the 60's, code name VAT 69. This unit was trained by the British SAS and SBS. They got the job done. Many of the terrorist fled Malaysia and went to southern Thailand.

[simple1]

Even negotiating with terrorists organisations is sheer stupidity. Meanwhile the Police Minister and Army sit in BKK whilst attacks are almost a daily occurrence. You would think looking at the stats on the 'incidents' the army should roll out in full, move south and start culling every household in a pincer movement to round up these animals. No point asking the police. No point asking the govt - it would interrupt the PM's busy shopping or overseas travel schedules selling Thailand as a safe haven for investment.

Malaysia had a unit in the 60's, code name VAT 69. This unit was trained by the British SAS and SBS. They got the job done. Many of the terrorist fled Malaysia and went to southern Thailand.

Their is a difference, the Malaya emergency "terrorists" were primarily ethnic Chinese with communist affiliation. However an interesting statistic "The death or capture of each terrorist represented 1,500 man-days of patrolling or waiting in ambushes"

[Locationthailand]

Even negotiating with terrorists organisations is sheer stupidity. Meanwhile the Police Minister and Army sit in BKK whilst attacks are almost a daily occurrence. You would think looking at the stats on the 'incidents' the army should roll out in full, move south and start culling every household in a pincer movement to round up these animals. No point asking the police. No point asking the govt - it would interrupt the PM's busy shopping or overseas travel schedules selling Thailand as a safe haven for investment.

You have made similar posts a number of times completely overlooking it's insurgency/guerrilla warfare with allegedly 9,000 or so active members, many of whom can infiltrate across the border with Malaysia. So other than talking nonsense, how do you believe a "cull" is going to identify, kill or capture those members. While we are talking about the military, they should be following orders from a civilian government that nearly every few weeks is instructing them to increase their effectiveness with apparently very little outcome.

There are countless examples of clean up military actions globally which have been successful to mop up terrorism and insurgents. And I have never overlooked this is guerilla warfare, ever. Any army given the direction could remove many of the problems if not the numbers. But then yes, I make the point repeatedly as there are elements of Thai who read these blogs and it does not always fall on deaf ears. The govt in itself has no clue, and I know of some 'interesting' people whom I have spoken with who agree, and have and can remove the threat very quickly, bit of course, the arrogance of Thai's will not allow that to happen as they think they can still handle it. Just sad for the people down south who are in themselves - being culled by this injustice.

[JeffreyWitty]

Wait a second! I don't understand? Islam is a religion of peace!

[simple1]

Even negotiating with terrorists organisations is sheer stupidity. Meanwhile the Police Minister and Army sit in BKK whilst attacks are almost a daily occurrence. You would think looking at the stats on the 'incidents' the army should roll out in full, move south and start culling every household in a pincer movement to round up these animals. No point asking the police. No point asking the govt - it would interrupt the PM's busy shopping or overseas travel schedules selling Thailand as a safe haven for investment.

You have made similar posts a number of times completely overlooking it's insurgency/guerrilla warfare with allegedly 9,000 or so active members, many of whom can infiltrate across the border with Malaysia. So other than talking nonsense, how do you believe a "cull" is going to identify, kill or capture those members. While we are talking about the military, they should be following orders from a civilian government that nearly every few weeks is instructing them to increase their effectiveness with apparently very little outcome.

There are countless examples of clean up military actions globally which have been successful to mop up terrorism and insurgents. And I have never overlooked this is guerilla warfare, ever. Any army given the direction could remove many of the problems if not the numbers. But then yes, I make the point repeatedly as there are elements of Thai who read these blogs and it does not always fall on deaf ears. The govt in itself has no clue, and I know of some 'interesting' people whom I have spoken with who agree, and have and can remove the threat very quickly, bit of course, the arrogance of Thai's will not allow that to happen as they think they can still handle it. Just sad for the people down south who are in themselves - being culled by this injustice.

How do the interesting people propose to remove the threat in in the deep South?

As you know the US 1st Special Forces Group in the Philippines were effective in assisting the Philippine Armed Forces. However, the Philippine government still needed to enter a political dialogue, with the contribution from Malaysia, to engage with the insurgency to achieve a relative calm to agree a framework to finally transition to autonomy. It's still an open question whether lasting peace will be achieved as both sides have a history of broken agreements. Of course the major difference was the Philippine government knew who they had to negotiate with.