Automate Thai state lottery system: Chulalongkorn University

[ezzra]

Thai lottery is rigged, Thai universes are rigged, police, army, government all

rigged, we live in a country that these kind of practices are very well accepted.

[spidermike007]

If the government wanted to get rid of, or reduce corruption, they could. But, there appears to be no will, volition, determination, care, concern, or interest in ridding the country of this festering boil on the face of the Thai people. It is one of the greatest problems this country faces, and one of the reasons why Thailand will become less, and less of a factor, on the world stage, as time goes on. Yingluck has zero interest in this. Chalerm has zero interest in this. Too many insects are making money on this. Children dealing with adult problems. This issue is one of the great shames this experiences. It is a form of rape, being committed against the Thai people, and everyone who visits this place. Of course there is corruption in the lottery. Who would even seriously consider the possibility that it was a straight institution? Why even ponder that? Very little is straight and completely honest or transparent here.

[comserve]

Statistically speaking, how many of you did understood this sentence "For instance, he said, having the same last two digits of 66 appear as the winning number twice in a decade is impossible statistically speaking as it can only occur once in 417 years on average." .. and this one .. "Another highly unusual result was the last two digits of one of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's many vans, which ended up appearing seven times in the 40 bimonthly cycles."

I did not. I had to double check that this article was from The Nation instead of from Not The Nation.

How does Thai national lottery work?

In my opinion, once one "last two digit" number has been drawn, the odds that it will be drawn again is 1 in 100. But I'm not a statistician, only a mathematician. I think the university study is a bit anal.

[retell]

My statistics teacher always told me that with draws like this each chance is independent therefore it is possible to have two or even three identical results in a row. The thing is it averages out over a very long period. Maybe Thai statisticas is different.

if i roll a dice 10 times and every time it falls on number 6 what is gonna be the number in the 11th roll , any thing from 1 to 6 cos dice doe not have brain

[David48]

My statistics teacher always told me that with draws like this each chance is independent therefore it is possible to have two or even three identical results in a row. The thing is it averages out over a very long period. Maybe Thai statisticas is different.

That's true.

Well ... it would be true is there was an equal probability for each number ... but the Thai system, due to it's composure, doesn't offer and equal chance for every number.

Such is life ...

.

[harrry]

My statistics teacher always told me that with draws like this each chance is independent therefore it is possible to have two or even three identical results in a row. The thing is it averages out over a very long period. Maybe Thai statisticas is different.

if i roll a dice 10 times and every time it falls on number 6 what is gonna be the number in the 11th roll , any thing from 1 to 6 cos dice doe not have brain

except for thai dice

[SOTIRIOS]

...on another note...a few weeks ago, at Future Park Rangsit, there was a whole section with tables set up...and people selling lotteries...

...100 baht a ticket...to win cars, motorcycles, gold, cash...

...a few weeks later....the winning numbers are nowhere to be found.....anyone had the same experience...???

...on the back is a web site: www.pathumthani.go.th but no mention of the lottery on the site ..........

...any constructive feedback would be appreciated...

Edited June 15, 2013 by SOTIRIOS

[Johpa]

This report is not nearly as entertaining as events, ...............what was it, ................about 25 years ago, when on live TV the then lottery machine stopped between two numbers and subsequently a wire was found leading from the machine running under a rug to an adjacent room. So go back to your usual chatter as there is nothing new being reported here.

[Emdog]

"There should be no problems if they used automated machines and the system was checked by outside auditors every two years or so," yeah, right. Look at voting machines in USA....

Also, seems to be contradictory statement the two 66's would be statistically impossible, but would occur once in 417 years. If second part is true, then it is not impossible. Not when hell freezes over, etc.

[Beetlejuice]

If people prefer to make bets unofficially, than that`s a chance they have to take. They do so at their own risk and discretion.

Forget the theoretically speaking part. In laymen s terms, the odds are always with the house, no matter what sorts of systems they use. It`s a risk and this is why the lottery is classified under gambling.

Personally I have never been a gambling man and prefer to leave my luck to fate. What will be, will be.

Edited June 15, 2013 by Beetlejuice

[Payboy]

After conducting a three-decade-long study, Chulalongkorn University statistician Theeraporn Verathaworn has discovered that the numbers drawn fortnightly in the state lottery are highly improbable.

Translation, he's been buying lottery tickets for 30 years and won nothing.

[MyFriend You]

That is the most idiotic statement and irresponsible reporting.

For a 2 digit number, the odds are 1 in a hundred.

With 2 draws a month, you only need 4.167 years if the random process goes exactly according to theory.

But then again, only FOOLS will buy the Thai lottery.

Wonder what the Thai Govts. / Authorities (including all those past Govts.) are doing all these years?

Imagine using a 100 Thai Baht Legal Tender Note to pay for an official Thai lottery with a face value of only 80 Baht printed on it?

Seems that the words "LEGAL TENDER" has no meaning here in Thailand.

And all of us know whose revered image is on each and every Thai bank notes.

T.I.T.

Well, guess I am a fool, because I only spend about 3,000 baht a month on tickets - my 2,800,000 win a year ago is resting comfortably in my bank account..........accordingly to the esteemed Pprofessor statistically speaking.........I never should have won in the first place. Now what is the last 2 numbers of Yinglucks Van???

[retell]

every time i see people selling lottery tickets i do not buy one, so i win every time

[retell]

...on another note...a few weeks ago, at Future Park Rangsit, there was a whole section with tables set up...and people selling lotteries...

...100 baht a ticket...to win cars, motorcycles, gold, cash...

...a few weeks later....the winning numbers are nowhere to be found.....anyone had the same experience...???

...on the back is a web site: www.pathumthani.go.th but no mention of the lottery on the site ..........

...any constructive feedback would be appreciated...

not constructive but the winning numbers are in the organisers bank book

[HUAHIN62]

Statiscally nothing is impossible and the prof should know that. I once had some time to kill and went to the hotels casino and won 3 times in a row on 32 in roulette. Not impossible but improbable. If you want to cheat no system is foolproof. The worst of most lotteries is the percentage the managing companies makes, in some cases upto 30% of proceeds.

[stat088]

These stats are utter rubbish.

You would expect 66 to appear once in every 100 draws. Odd of 99:1. as there are only 100 2 number combinations.

Since there are 24 draws in a year you would expect 66 to come every 4 years. Twice in 8 years would be normal. 3 times in a decade would also be considered normal.

If 66 appears in this weeks draw the odds of 66 appearing in the following fornights draw are the same, 99:1.

[lungmi]

I believe this, it is statistically impossible to buy as many lottery tickets as I have and not win SOMETHING

I win every time. I don't gamble.

[A Member]

So this is the result of a three decade long study at one of Thailand's top universities.

Enough said.

Now we know why they slipped in the university rankings.

[A Member]

Would it make any difference if the lottery was automated as the system would have to be set up to operate which means that information would be known to any number of people and becomes a valuable commodity ?

Remember the claim a few years ago that the winning numbers could be seen in advance by wearing special contact lenses ?

[keithet]

If the lottery system went to Automate systems, the computers can be rigged just like alot of the problems at Indian casinos in America.

It would be interesting to see who wins after switching to computers... If they do switch.

[Bagwan]

I told my Thai family that at any time they felt the urge to buy a lottery ticket to resist the temptation and give me 100 baht. On New Year's Day I would return all the cash that they had given me plus 10% interest. Quite a windfall for a Thai farmer. No takers. You can take a horse to water ................ (I wonder if it would work with a camel?)

Some family members are casual farm workers. For a day hard at it they are rewarded with100 baht and a meal at midday. Even after pointing out that they have been labouring away and all they have to show for it is a useless piece of paper, they still buy lottery tickets. Oh well. TIT.

[hellodolly]

i wasn't surprised that the thai lottery showed "signs of rigging" but i am amazed how long it took a university statistician to come to that conclusion

and it only took him thirty years.

I wonder how many it will take him to figure out an automated system checked every two years can be rigged. An amazing display of Thai Academia.

[techboy]

So this is the result of a three decade long study at one of Thailand's top universities.

Enough said.

Enough said? By whom? Your post is denigrating false innuendo coming from and unreliable knowledge source- yourself.

[bangon04]

I believe this, it is statistically impossible to buy as many lottery tickets as I have and not win SOMETHING

Even if you do win, as a Farang you probably can't be allowed to collect.......

[CWMcMurray]

What I always wondered about the Thai lottery , is why the payout is so tiny...

Ticket prices are 100 thb (or is it 110 now?) , understand that sellers buy for less and mark up, but even if they are buying at half the selling ...

50 THB would be about USD 1.67... While lottery tickets in US are only 1 USD

There are aprox 70 mil people in Thailand lottery system and total US population is aprox 300 mil... But US lottery is run by states.

So if we look at New York lottery for comparison... New York has aprox 20 mil people (less than a third of the population of Thailand)

Lets assume a similar % of population play the lottery... It should mean that the total ticket sales should be more than triple the total sales of the New York lottery... Or even more if you consider that the per ticket price is much higher in Thailand.

Now lets compare the payout for winners...

Current payout for Thai Lottery... 4mil thb or aprox 130,000

Payout for the Next New York Lottery ... 8.3 mil USD or 249 mil THB...

So where us all the money for the Thai lottery going? As they are only giving a very very tiny percentage to winners

Sent from my iPhone using ThaiVisa app

[uktony]

Statistically speaking, how many of you did understood this sentence "For instance, he said, having the same last two digits of 66 appear as the winning number twice in a decade is impossible statistically speaking as it can only occur once in 417 years on average." .. and this one .. "Another highly unusual result was the last two digits of one of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's many vans, which ended up appearing seven times in the 40 bimonthly cycles."

The chance of 66 being the last 2 numbers is 1 in 100, ALWAYS

The last digit being 0 is 1 in 10

The chances of the last digit being the same as the last time, is 1 in 10

Does this guy know the laws of chance?

Tony

[Chris Lawrence]

I won on my second go......

But land of smiles, where else?

[OzMick]

What I always wondered about the Thai lottery , is why the payout is so tiny...

Ticket prices are 100 thb (or is it 110 now?) , understand that sellers buy for less and mark up, but even if they are buying at half the selling ...

50 THB would be about USD 1.67... While lottery tickets in US are only 1 USD

There are aprox 70 mil people in Thailand lottery system and total US population is aprox 300 mil... But US lottery is run by states.

So if we look at New York lottery for comparison... New York has aprox 20 mil people (less than a third of the population of Thailand)

Lets assume a similar % of population play the lottery... It should mean that the total ticket sales should be more than triple the total sales of the New York lottery... Or even more if you consider that the per ticket price is much higher in Thailand.

Now lets compare the payout for winners...

Current payout for Thai Lottery... 4mil thb or aprox 130,000

Payout for the Next New York Lottery ... 8.3 mil USD or 249 mil THB...

So where us all the money for the Thai lottery going? As they are only giving a very very tiny percentage to winners

Sent from my iPhone using ThaiVisa app

Your result is based on a mishmash of false assumptions and illogical conclusions

[navara]

The buyers get ripped off a.s. they buy: 80bath sell: 90/100/110/120 and good numbers goes even higher!

[hellodolly]

What I always wondered about the Thai lottery , is why the payout is so tiny...

Ticket prices are 100 thb (or is it 110 now?) , understand that sellers buy for less and mark up, but even if they are buying at half the selling ...

50 THB would be about USD 1.67... While lottery tickets in US are only 1 USD

There are aprox 70 mil people in Thailand lottery system and total US population is aprox 300 mil... But US lottery is run by states.

So if we look at New York lottery for comparison... New York has aprox 20 mil people (less than a third of the population of Thailand)

Lets assume a similar % of population play the lottery... It should mean that the total ticket sales should be more than triple the total sales of the New York lottery... Or even more if you consider that the per ticket price is much higher in Thailand.

Now lets compare the payout for winners...

Current payout for Thai Lottery... 4mil thb or aprox 130,000

Payout for the Next New York Lottery ... 8.3 mil USD or 249 mil THB...

So where us all the money for the Thai lottery going? As they are only giving a very very tiny percentage to winners

Sent from my iPhone using ThaiVisa app

Your result is based on a mishmash of false assumptions and illogical conclusions

The conclusions are logical using the figures he has given here.

If the assumptions are false the conclusion would be different.

Can you supply us with the correct assumptions. Numbers do not lie give us the real numbers so we can see for are selves the validity of the false assumptions claim.