Whats happening with the baht

[johnthompson]

Whats happening with the baht? Not too long ago every investor wanted to get out of thailand. Capital was flowing out of the country. And now suddenly the reverse is happening?

And now good chuck of my money just vanished into thin air because the baht in just a few days . These guys also don't what they want. I mean how can the fundamentals of the economy suddenly change in a few days.

[yoshiwara]

Pooff! And then it was gone!

[i claudius]

like anything when its cheap they buy ,hoping to make a profit

[stoli]

John Thompson - Whats happening with the baht? Not too long ago every investor wanted to get out of thailand. Capital was flowing out of the country. And now suddenly the reverse is happening?

And now good chuck of my money just vanished into thin air because the baht in just a few days . These guys also don't what they want. I mean how can the fundamentals of the economy suddenly change in a few days.

It is easy for a country's fundamentals of their economy to suddenly change in a few days. This just happened in Thailand because the economic report showed the Thailand had officially entered a recession by having two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The markets react instantaneously.

[Naam]

Thailand had officially entered a recession

hmmm... so that's the reason why the Baht is strengthening?

[falang07]

Keeping strong baht is not consistent with the government policies in case Thailand wants to stay competitive. And they need to export and sell for cheaper.

[caughtintheact]

Keeping strong baht is not consistent with the government policies in case Thailand wants to stay competitive. And they need to export and sell for cheaper.

You can't always look at exports or imports as if they are separate from each other. Thailand imports a lot of raw materials that are used to make products for export, So if the baht gets weaker, products that have no imported content or a small value of imported content can be priced better for export. However products that use a high value of imported raw materials will cost more to make and may not be as competitive (exportable) as they were before the shift in the baht's strength/weakness. In addition many government policies and the ripple effect of those policies are inflationary, and that impacts costs of production and the ability to export.

[kevinsan]

They fudged the economic numbers. The baht appreciated. Rating agency upgrades. Oh, the gov admits it fudged the numbers. Freefall.

Or the US stops QE. Money flows back to the US. Freefall.

Or the emerging markets interest rates have not kept pace to capital outflows. Freefall.

Or the girls are just not demanding enough keep the economy afloat - again. Freefall.

[MrWorldwide]

Here we go again - strap yourselves in

I just want to see a strong US dollar again, and some small level of 'certainty' in the Pacific, but I expect that the TV economists will tell me its all one huge bubble and we are days away from losing our shirts. It's one thing to be 90-something US cents to the AUD, or whatever-to-the-baht, another to wonder just when the hell the people who print greenbacks are going to get their act together.

[Pib]

John Thompson - Whats happening with the baht? Not too long ago every investor wanted to get out of thailand. Capital was flowing out of the country. And now suddenly the reverse is happening?

And now good chuck of my money just vanished into thin air because the baht in just a few days . These guys also don't what they want. I mean how can the fundamentals of the economy suddenly change in a few days.

It is easy for a country's fundamentals of their economy to suddenly change in a few days. This just happened in Thailand because the economic report showed the Thailand had officially entered a recession by having two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The markets react instantaneously.

Heck, Thailand having two quarters of falling GDP is old news....it was being reported back in mid August like this mid Aug BBC news report. And two quarters adds up to 180 days so it has not been a sudden change....just a slow change. I expect all the money investors recently pulled out of Thailand over the last few months that some of them have recently started putting some of it back into Thailand which may be the reason behind the baht's recent week or so of appreciation.

Just like the stock markets, FOREX markets seesaw back and forth as they trend upward or download. In my opinion (a.k.a., wild ass guess) the near term trend of the baht over the coming month or two is to depreciate back above 32 baht/USD, and I would be very surprised if it reached 33 Baht/USD....I'm thinking something in the mid 32's instead. That's my guess for the day...50-50 chance (best case) of it being right...or wrong.....do you say right or wrong when the odds are 50-50...this is why I don't do FOREX trades...I'm not smart (or brave) enough.

Edited September 13, 2013 by Pib

[Frank James]

All my favorite imported food at Tops and Rimping gonna go UP! Well, man cannot live on street pahd thai alone, pity.

[denby45]

The $/Baht exchange rate cannot go straight up for too long. It has to have a decent correction at least back to the trend line some time. Is this what we are seeing now? The question has to be, is this merely a correction or a reversal. I am assuming a correction is in place and will maintain that view until it breaks significant support lines on the way down. If it does not break the support then on up to the 33 mark.

Den

[HUAHIN62]

The Baht appreciated in the last week due to money flowing back into the SET. Got nothing to do with the government or policy. After the hot money outflows the SET came down hard and some investors saw buying opportunities. The BoT did not intervene in the exchange market and the Baht is reflecting its true market value. What have however happened is that Thailand have sold off 27% of the US treasuries it held. At the present level neither exporters nor importers are complaining. I am however expecting the Baht to drop to 33 to the $ after the Fed announce its tapering program. The world markets are now so skewed due to QE that very few prices/exchange rates etc are based on fundamentals.

[jpeg]

It was reported in the BP today that Goldman Sachs sees the baht depreciate against the dollar to 33 in three months, short of the 31.3 projected.

[mickyboy]

i like it 6months ago 43 bhat =£1 now 50bhat=£1 my money buys more the wife thinks the thai economy bubble may be about to burst as it did in europe maybe like say 8 years ago 72 bhat =£1

wasnt that just heaven

[JSixpack]

i like it 6months ago 43 bhat =£1 now 50bhat=£1 my money buys more the wife thinks the thai economy bubble may be about to burst as it did in europe maybe like say 8 years ago 72 bhat =£1

wasnt that just heaven

But maybe the wife *kit pit and bubble not burst and you no like it.

[yoshiwara]

The question I am now starting to asking myself is at what baht rate against the £ would my resolve fail and I feel impelled towards purchasing an apartment?

[chiang mai]

The Baht appreciated in the last week due to money flowing back into the SET. Got nothing to do with the government or policy. After the hot money outflows the SET came down hard and some investors saw buying opportunities. The BoT did not intervene in the exchange market and the Baht is reflecting its true market value. What have however happened is that Thailand have sold off 27% of the US treasuries it held. At the present level neither exporters nor importers are complaining. I am however expecting the Baht to drop to 33 to the $ after the Fed announce its tapering program. The world markets are now so skewed due to QE that very few prices/exchange rates etc are based on fundamentals.

BOT reports foriegn currency reserves down by US 3.47 billion during August, where did it go if it wasn't in support of THB!

http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=94&language=ENG

Also, THB wouldn't appreciate just because money flowed into the SET, unless that money was foriegn currency that was sold to buy THB for investment in the SET, is that what you meant?

[silentnine]

whenever i look at it i don't think its a question of what has happened to the baht

for the last 5 years + the US$ has sat between 30-33 to the baht.

whereas the £ sterling has plummeted.

this is not an issue of the pound against the baht ..(70 down to sub 50)

its the pound against the dollar that dictates what we get

if we get more dollar for our pound then we by default get more baht for the pound.

Edited September 13, 2013 by silentnine

[Naam]

whenever i look at it i don't think its a question of what has happened to the baht

for the last 5 years + the US$ has sat between 30-33 to the baht.

whereas the £ sterling has plummeted.

this is not an issue of the pound against the baht ..(70 down to sub 50)

its the pound against the dollar that dictates what we get

if we get more dollar for our pound then we by default get more baht for the pound.

correct assumption

[Ulic]

Just short term volatility as investors see opportunities in the SET. Hard to believe the baht will not drop to 33 vs US dollar.

With fed tapering, various Thai government subsidy schemes that cost the country billions of baht. Political instability

is sure to follow at some time in the future. Look at Greece. Successive governments promising more and more to get

elected. The books get cooked to get more help from the EU and cheaper loans. Eventually there is a crisis when the truth comes out.

Here the baht will just be devalued, the poor will suffer more and that will be that. I have read the rice subsidy losses and

losses from the Asian crisis of 98 are not even on the books. It can't be long before a government bond downgrade.

[TheSwede99]

johnthompson Wrote

" And now good chuck of my money just vanished into thin air because the baht in just a few days "

The money hasn't vanished! If you live here in Thailand, then I assume that you use the money here so it's still in the bank.

If you want to transfer money from Thailand to other countries, then they have declined in value, not vanished.

You can always wait and transfer at another time when the value is better.

If you transfer money to Thailand you will gain.

Edited September 13, 2013 by TheSwede99

[steelepulse]

According to xe.com, it's at 31.8, down just .4 baht from the high of 32.2, so not really that much of a change.

[Naam]

According to xe.com, it's at 31.8, down just .4 baht from the high of 32.2, so not really that much of a change.

let's rather call that up 0.4 Baht from the recent low vs. US-Dollar

[DGIE]

Sudden change in exchange rate is no longer new. That happens everytime.

If your money easily spent because its worth nothing

then do not live

so that you don't spend

[MrWorldwide]

The question I am now starting to asking myself is at what baht rate against the £ would my resolve fail and I feel impelled towards purchasing an apartment?

Stark contrast to the Brits who were threatening to sell up and go back to the UK if the baht gained any more ground on their currency. When was that - 3-4 months ago ? That's when the 'resolve' was needed

[FiftyTwo]

It went to 50.6 last Friday, it's now at 50.4.

As far as I can see nothing much happened, I guess the BOT tried to salvage it.

But they always give up after a week or so, so I expect it will weaken some more soon.

I traded 5k GBP on friday, when it was 50.5.

Will buy some more at 53.

[nosatisfaction]

Pooff! And then it was gone!

how can a smile suddenly change into a stab in the back?

[yoshiwara]

The question I am now starting to asking myself is at what baht rate against the £ would my resolve fail and I feel impelled towards purchasing an apartment?

Stark contrast to the Brits who were threatening to sell up and go back to the UK if the baht gained any more ground on their currency. When was that - 3-4 months ago ? That's when the 'resolve' was needed

Sometimes a trend seems to have formed and almost set in stone. That was certainly the case with GBPTHB until very recently indeed and bar room and locker room chat wouldn't have told you otherwise. It is not so easy to hold the line when all the push appears to be in the opposite direction. When GBPTHB reached 43+ and was pointing downwards most of the chitter chatter was speculating even further downwards. The smart guys were buying 'worthless' sterling with their up, up and away baht.

Edited September 14, 2013 by yoshiwara

[joecos]

The strengths & weaknesses of all currencies are manipulated to suit the powers that be . The £ is now strong against the $ & the Euro, how can this possibly be when the country is in such a mess . Being run by an incompitant government .