Thai economy likely to take a hit because of political turmoil

[webfact]

Economy likely to take a hit because of political turmoil
SOMLUCK SRIMALEE
THE NATION



BANGKOK: -- THE ONGOING political turmoil is expected to impact the country's gross domestic product (GDP) this year, with the initial year-end estimate of 3.7 per cent now revised to 3.4 per cent, according to the Graduate School of Development Economics of the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA).

However, the country's GDP in the third quarter of this year is expected to grow slightly, compared with the second quarter of this year when the country's domestic consumption declined. Exports have also grown only 1 per cent this year, while both domestic and foreign investors have still not committed to making new investments, the school's dean, Assoc Prof Nada Chunsom, said.

The school, said Nada, had already adjusted GDP growth from 4 per cent earlier this year to 3.7 per cent in the third quarter. However, this did not take into account the effect on the economy of the current political impasse.

The country's political turmoil, said Nada, also had an impact on consumer spending in the last quarter of this year, and could also affect the tourism sector, which officially entered its high season last month. As a result, the school had decided to revise down the country's GDP from 3.7 per cent to 3.4 per cent. The forecast is based on the country's year-end 1 per cent estimated export growth.

Meanwhile, the school has also revised down the country's GDP for 2014, from 4.9 per cent to 4.6 per cent.

It is expected that a global economic recovery next year, led by gains in the US market, will help to boost Thailand's exports in 2014, with a better year-end result than the 1 per cent estimate for this year.

The school also expects the government's mega-projects - both the Bt350-billion water and flood-management scheme, and the Bt2-trillion mega-infrastructure project - will encourage new domestic and foreign investment in 2014.

Innovative Economy

Although the country's economy will continue to maintain a growth average of 4 per cent in 2014, the government needs to focus on a long-term economic strategy that is sustainable, Assoc Prof Pradit Wanarat, president of NIDA said.

Pradit said that without a long-term economic strategy, the country could not maintain sustainable economic growth with key targets.

"In my view, Thailand's economic drive should focus on high-end technology products - developing and promoting technology brands; produce value-added agricultural products, including promoting raw agricultural materials for export. Focusing on these areas would lead the country in the direction of sustainable economic growth in the long term, Pradit said.

The country, he said, should also be investing in the research and development of innovative products that could compete on the global market.

Currently the government invests less than 1 per of the country's total yearly budget in research and development. This was not enough to drive research and development initiatives, he said.


-- The Nation 2013-11-18

[chooka]

Those dam_n Farang Tourists. It's all their fault, Thais put on all this entertainment and they don't come.

Edited November 17, 2013 by chooka

[Thai at Heart]

Last week it was from 3.5%, to 3.4%.

It barely makes a blip.

[Ricardo]

Yay for Red Economic-Success ! ... and Blame It On The Dems !

(except that the technical-recesssion began several months ago)

[Thait Spot]

Just the government getting the blame in first. Nothing to with their incredibly wasteful policies

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[keith101]

so the huge loss due to the rice pledging scheme has nothing to do with financial problems ? the govt is blaming us and not themselves what a joke NOT .

[JRSoul]

Someone should ask Prof Nada which he would prefer to see; the rice scam continued and HSR or a massive investment in education reform and improvement.

[MaxLee]

"Economy likely to take a hit because of political turmoil rice pledging SCAM, sh*****tloading on other provinces flood SCAMS, the first car buying SCAM, vote buying SCAM, promoting murder SCAM, promoting "innocent high status kids SCAMS, ripping of tourism SCAMS.... greedy white lying ministries and government officials, a traveling Barbie girlie puppet PM etc, etcetera...

And because some million people in Thailand finally have the brains to clearly see the difference now with an open mind and with fair access to information thanks to social networks, they're not gonna let themselves to be treated like mindless sheep any more...

Edited November 18, 2013 by MaxLee

[Mosha]

BBC- Growth in the 1st quarter 5.4%, 2nd quarter expected to be around 2.8%

[Local Drunk]

I've talked to a few small business owners in Siam Square and they tell me that business is really flat at the moment and one point they all agree on is that consumers have little or no confidence in the direction that the government is taking the country, hence they are being very conservative with their spending.

As for the economy of the nation as a whole, I'll leave that to the economist here.

[davehowden]

"development of innovative products that could compete on the global market."

Your joking of course?

[worgeordie]

The Thai population is mostly up to their eyes in debit,part through

rising prices,and by taking the lead from the Government in reckless

and irresponsible spending,the public thinks it can spend more than

it earns.

But blame it all on the opposition it MUST be their fault.in fact its all

someone else's fault in Thailand !

regards Worgeordie

[NongKhaiKid]

BBC- Growth in the 1st quarter 5.4%, 2nd quarter expected to be around 2.8%

i have just heard a studio guest on BBC's Asia Business report talk about the economy and he mentioned the post-election ' give aways ' of two years ago and he suggested there's a realisation they miight not be sustainable.

I think it's reasonable to say the government absolutely knows it cannot sustain the black hole that is the rice pledging scheme but they have painted themselves into a corner and are only too well aware what will happen if they cut the scheme far less scrap it.

Meanwhile the taxpayers will have to carry the burden of major losses so the government can survive and the government will continue to be economical with the truth.

[Larry001]

For a country that thinks they know it all; there is a lot of Political Instability

[bigbamboo]

Just as well the turmoil won't affect tourist numbers or the economy really would be in trouble.

[webfact]

A grim year for Thai economy with only 3% growth

By English News

BANGKOK, Nov 18 – Thailand will encounter a disappointing economic growth of only 3 per cent this year, a drop from an earlier projection at an already-low 3.8-4.3 per cent, the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) announced today.

NESDB Secretary General Arkhom Termpittayapaisith said the country’s exports and auto manufacturing expanded less than forecast while the state’s investment plan failed to reach its target, floods affected the economy and exports in US dollar terms were stagnant.

He said domestic consumption increased by 0.8 per cent, investment by 0.9 per cent whereas inflation was at 2.4 per cent and current account suffered a deficit at 0.9 per cent of gross domestic product.

He said the political demonstrations have hardly given a negative impact to tourism as tourists mostly travel directly to their upcountry destinations including Chiang Mai, Phuket and Hat Yai.

The number of those travelling to Bangkok is small compared to the major attractions, he said.

Mr Arkhom predicted a 2.7 per cent economic growth in Q3, lower than 2.9 per cent in Q2 while exports shrank by 1.8 per cent at a total value of US$57.964 billion due to a weakened global economy which has an impact on exports across the region.

Investment dropped by 6.5 per cent in line with reductions in state investment by 16.2 per cent, private investment by 3.3 per cent and household spending by 1.2 per cent.

All these factors resulted in Thailand’s economic growth at 3.7 per cent in the first nine months of this year, he said.

The NESDB predicted an economic growth at 4.0-5.0 per cent next year with expansions in exports at 7 per cent and household consumption and investment at 2.7 per cent.

Mr Arkhom said the major driving forces for next year’s economy will be the state investment especially the Bt2 trillion spending on infrastructure development, strengthened global economy which will possibly expand by 3.5 per cent from this year’s 2.9 per cent.

Risk factors for next year include lower-than-projected exports and disappointing expansions of household spending and private investment, he added. (MCOT online news)

-- TNA 2013-11-18

[JRSoul]

asiarooms.com lists 785 BKK hotels, with up to (at a glance) 400 rooms (starwoodhotels.com) but very few visitors compared to the major attractions. Very strange.

[tominbkk]

BANGKOK, Nov 18 – Thailand will encounter a disappointing economic growth of only 3 per cent this year, a drop from an earlier projection at an already-low 3.8-4.3 per cent, the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) announced today.

Thanks Yingluck. You have destroyed Thailand.

[webfact]

Thai economy grows 2.7% in third quarter

BANGKOK, November 18, 2013 (AFP) - Thailand's economy grew at a lower-than-expected pace in -July September, data showed Monday as the government cut its forecast for the year while analysts warned political turmoil could inflict further damage.

On a year-on-year basis, gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 2.7 percent in the third quarter of 2013, weaker than the adjusted 2.9 percent in April-June, the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) said.

It was the third straight quarter of slowing growth in the kingdom, and came on the back of a drop-off in consumer spending, the board said, although the economy did benefit from a surge in tourist arrivals and increased state spending.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal forecast growth at 2.95 percent.

The NESDB projected the Thai economy "is likely to grow by 3.0 percent" in 2013, lower than the 3.8-4.3 percent forecast in August.

"In 2014, the Thai economy is expected to grow in the range of 4.0-5.0 percent," it added, on the back of a global economic recovery and massive state spending on infrastructure. The economy grew 6.5 percent in 2012.

But, with anti-government protests entering a third week on Monday, experts said the spectre of political unrest could impact growth.

Critics of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra have held daily rallies after a botched attempt by her administration to push through a political amnesty bill that would have allowed her brother -- and former premier -- Thaksin to return from self-exile.

"As long as protests remain peaceful, the impact on GDP will be short-lived and small," experts at Capital Economics said in a briefing note.

"However there is a risk of prolonged and violent unrest," they said, adding any repeat of clashes seen in 2010 would likely batter the kingdom's crucial tourist industry.

Thailand's household consumption dropped by 1.2 percent on the previous year, the NESDB said in the statement, on the back off lower farm incomes and the expiry of a government rebate for first-time car buyers.

However, the kingdom's tourism sector grew 26.1 percent year-on-year, boosting hotel occupancy rates and restaurant takings.


-- (c) Copyright AFP 2013-11-18

[thailiketoo]

BANGKOK, Nov 18 – Thailand will encounter a disappointing economic growth of only 3 per cent this year, a drop from an earlier projection at an already-low 3.8-4.3 per cent, the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) announced today.

Thanks Yingluck. You have destroyed Thailand.

British economic growth at 2.4 %. And Yingluck only visited there eh?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/11/03/uk-britain-economy-cbi-idUKBRE9A200720131103

[waza]

"Thailand's household consumption dropped by 1.2 percent on the previous year, the NESDB said in the statement, on the back off lower farm incomes and the expiry of a government rebate for first-time car buyers.....However, the kingdom's tourism sector grew 26.1 percent year-on-year, boosting hotel occupancy rates and restaurant takings."

700 billion baht spent on the rice scam to lift the income of the 6 million rice farmers, that's about 120,000 baht each Then add the rubber, onion, taro ect subsidies and the result is lower farm incomes. How is that possible?

But don't worry tourist numbers are up.

Edited November 18, 2013 by waza

[clockman]

Remember there is no transparency in Thailand! So everything is an enigma. And is not credible!

[thailiketoo]

Remember there is no transparency in Thailand! So everything is an enigma. And is not credible!

If there is there is no transparency why would they only claim 3%? Why not 6 or 10%?

[hammered]

Well the good news is that the Economist was both praising the 2 trillion infrastructure plan today and saying that the level of debt it would create would be manageably low compared to many countries. That will help the dip and is probably why this project is supported by such a cross political party section of business.

[Mosha]

BANGKOK, Nov 18 – Thailand will encounter a disappointing economic growth of only 3 per cent this year, a drop from an earlier projection at an already-low 3.8-4.3 per cent, the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) announced today.

Thanks Yingluck. You have destroyed Thailand.

British economic growth at 2.4 %. And Yingluck only visited there eh?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/11/03/uk-britain-economy-cbi-idUKBRE9A200720131103

But it didn't shrink by 50% from the previous quarter. If it had I reckon the coalition would have broken up, and a Lab/Lib Dem government would probably take over. However this topic is about Thailand

[thailiketoo]

BANGKOK, Nov 18 – Thailand will encounter a disappointing economic growth of only 3 per cent this year, a drop from an earlier projection at an already-low 3.8-4.3 per cent, the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) announced today.

Thanks Yingluck. You have destroyed Thailand.

British economic growth at 2.4 %. And Yingluck only visited there eh?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/11/03/uk-britain-economy-cbi-idUKBRE9A200720131103

But it didn't shrink by 50% from the previous quarter. If it had I reckon the coalition would have broken up, and a Lab/Lib Dem government would probably take over. However this topic is about Thailand

What good is knowing what economic growth without comparison? If the whole world is blind the one eyed man is king. If the whole world has negative economic growth 1% positive growth is wonderful.

[MJP]

BANGKOK, Nov 18 – Thailand will encounter a disappointing economic growth of only 3 per cent this year, a drop from an earlier projection at an already-low 3.8-4.3 per cent, the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) announced today.

Thanks Yingluck. You have destroyed Thailand.

British economic growth at 2.4 %. And Yingluck only visited there eh?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/11/03/uk-britain-economy-cbi-idUKBRE9A200720131103

Blimey! That much!!!

I don't believe it!!!

[tingtongteesood]

But the hit to the economy is minimal compared to the amount of money the crooks in PT have put in their pockets during their reign of incompetence which is also minimal compared to the percentage of the 2 trillion loan they planned to pocket and land the tax payers with yet another bill their grandchildren will still be trying to pay off. End the madness and corruption NOW please. Let's have some transparency and a group set up whose job it is to scrutinize the government and keep them in check.....

[fab4]

Well the good news is that the Economist was both praising the 2 trillion infrastructure plan today and saying that the level of debt it would create would be manageably low compared to many countries. That will help the dip and is probably why this project is supported by such a cross political party section of business.

You know those tumbleweed scenes in the old western films. Your post is just like that, slowly, serenely rolling through the forum whilst the usual suspects are scrambling over each other in the bid to say the most outrageous things they can about the economy. A wondrous sight to behold , may I say.

[isawasnake]

People have been protesting away here for the past decade. There have been shootings, floods, government upheavals, and the only year anybody really took a hit here was 2008, when the US sub-prime mortgage debacle hit.

Look to other markets (ie China and USA) to decide the fate of the Thai market. The whiners in the streets have very little effect on it. In other words, the set really doesn't care about your protest too much, sorry to tell you. Now go home, will you please? Didn't the protesters already get what they wanted anyway?