Jump to content

Thai opinion: There's light at the end of the tunnel


Recommended Posts

Posted

STOPPAGE TIME
There's light at the end of the tunnel

Tulsathit Taptim

BANGKOK: -- The pale white dot is not showing Thaksin Shinawatra a road home, of course, but the faint light he sees is not a train coming at him, either. We all know that every honeymoon must come to an end, and fragile yet high post-coup expectations may be starting to run into some tough realities.

While there's not much the man in Dubai can do at the moment, at least he can begin to hope that the National Council for Peace and Order will end up looking overrated.

Let's be realistic. Even if the NCPO veers off track and crashes, Thaksin's desire for a return to power or to reclaim his seized assets will remain extremely ambitious. But if the NCPO bombs out, it will give him a great deal of satisfaction. The dim light at the end of the tunnel represents the possibility of vindication, of being able to reassert his claims that he's not responsible for all the troubles of Thailand.

Where does the light come from? First, the NCPO's handling of energy affairs is not making everybody happy. This is despite the fact that while some friends of the NCPO are feeling alienated, some "foes" may be feeling thankful. But all in all, oil interests are tricky and the NCPO is navigating a minefield that could blow its "popularity" away in an instant.

Second, the race between the NCPO's bid to expose rice scheme corruption and its critics' attempts to highlight post-coup "oppression" might not end in the junta's favour. This is not because the rice programme is squeaky clean, but because scandals like missing, faked and rotten rice are old news. Stories about media censorship and a clampdown on freedom of expression, on the other hand, are sexier.

Third, cracks have appeared in the uneasy alliance among the yellow shirts, the Democrats and the military. If they never really trusted one another before, the trust gap is even wider now. The yellow shirts' ASTV was never General Prayuth Chan-ocha's biggest fan and most likely will never be, while old wounds are being reopened between the yellow shirts and the Democrats. As for the oldest political party and the NCPO, they are eyeing each other like a jealous girl eyeing her most flirtatious boyfriend.

A weakening of the alliance was expected, but it was this kind of scenario that helped the resurgence of the Shinawatras and the red shirts after the 2006 coup. This time it might not come to another Shinawatra leading a pro-Thaksin party monopolising political power, but rifts among the allies could mess up promised reform. Who would benefit if the "reform" process fails? It's a no-brainer.

There is more to cheer Thaksin up. The ousted former prime minister probably doesn't realise it yet, but he and the Thai generals can't live without one another. Well, they actually can, but their lives would be largely insignificant. General Prayuth would be nearing a quiet retirement, poised to lead a golf gang and ready to clink champagne glasses with US diplomats on the fourth of July. Thaksin would be a rather unpopular "democratically elected" prime minister being slapped on the wrist from time to time by the West.

Their rivalry has blocked those scenarios. For their own good, some might say. In other words, being the world's richest prime minister, frowned upon left and right due to corruption and human rights issues, is not as fascinating as being a world-renowned victim of political persecution being shown sympathy by the United States, United Kingdom, the European Union, Australia and major international organisations. Money can be boring and it can't buy that "champion of democracy" status - unless, of course, it is "unfairly" taken from you by those who "conspired" to kick you out of power.

As for the Thai generals, they would have faded into the sunset in an uneventful country that has not had a taste of real war for decades. Thanks to Thaksin, their names are being flung around foreign news agencies and taken notice of by the powers-that-be in Washington, London and Canberra. Instead of unceremoniously doffing their uniforms when they reach mandatory retirement age, neither loved nor hated, the generals have written their names in the history books, for better or worse.

So the political enemies should thank each other. And if great reform comes out of their rivalry, they can present fresh evidence to the world that trust and friendship are probably highly overrated. After all, love didn't hasten space programmes or speed up nuclear technology. Mistrust, fear and prejudice did.

If Thaksin is seeing a pale white light, so should the rest of Thailand. At the ends of different tunnels, of course. After all they have done, Thailand's political foes might be doing this country great favours after all, highly optimistically speaking.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Theres-light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel-30238012.html

nationlogo.jpg
-- The Nation 2014-07-09

Posted

This is not because the rice programme is squeaky clean, but because scandals like missing, faked and rotten rice are old news.

The fact that this is true is what makes it possible that Thaksin has such a huge role in Thailand. It should be a scandal that Thais never forget, instead it's nudge, nudge, wink, wink, he sure is clever, reaction that makes one wonder if there is any point trying to understand.

Posted

The O.P. is indeed a fine lesson as to why an administration composed of non political individuals must be allowed the mandate to run this country for at least two years.

A review of the situation at the end of that two year period would enable people to see if an extension of that mandate was needed or whether a return to a more democratic society might be possible.

There are many vultures political and financially and filial hovering above Thailand waiting like vultures to pick at the carcass of Thailand as are those ground based rats on the sidelines are too if this latest power takeover fails.

We are as I have said before at a crosroads and the road taken will determine both the future of Thailand and its peoples for many years .

Non political? The army are the one omnipresent in the whole Thai political landscape since 1932......they have been in power probably more time than any political party, at the very least they are extremely complicit in the state the country is in, and that is being kind.

Why people suddenly think they are some beacon of virtuosity is mind blowing really....

  • Like 1
Posted (edited)

Thaskin can return after statute of limitations expires around six years , anyway, Thaskin also resides in either HK or mainland China, he left Dubai long ago , there is a danger that he's return will cause complete anarchy , not because what the idiot will say or do, but what other idiots will do and there lies the danger , Thailand is up the creek without a paddle, if this stupid man decides to return and lets face it, six years these days isn't a long time, unless you are my age, you could be dead , just like big "T" could end up, not a good option.coffee1.gif

Edited by chainarong
Posted

Only a fool would think the road to the future will be smooth and trouble free. Even in Australia politicians and political groups with a different ideology have both worked together and apart...sometimes at the same time!

As long as the junta makes their best efforts to achieve their goals, being for the common good, no-one should disparage the junta even if some projects fail to achieve there purpose.

  • Like 1
Posted

Thaskin can return after statute of limitations expires around six years , anyway, Thaskin also resides in either HK or mainland China, he left Dubai long ago , there is a danger that he's return will cause complete anarchy , not because what the idiot will say or do, but what other idiots will do and there lies the danger , Thailand is up the creek without a paddle, if this stupid man decides to return and lets face it, six years these days isn't a long time, unless you are my age, you could be dead , just like big "T" could end up, not a good option.coffee1.gif

The statute of limitations only applies to cases that were not heard... meaning if they can't get the offender to answer charges within 10 years the charges are scrubbed.

Thaksin was already charged and convicted and the statute of limitations no longer is valid..... he MUST serve his time.

He also has outstanding charges, and technically these can be heard in absentia. It is down to the criminal court to go ahead with them and one word from the right person can make that happen.

  • Like 2
Posted

Thailand is and will be in a constant state of uncertainty and risk. The best thing to do is hold an election and let the chips fall where they may. Let the candidate get nominated and run on their reform platform and their governance policy and strategy for transparency and accountability.

Posted

Thaskin can return after statute of limitations expires around six years , anyway, Thaskin also resides in either HK or mainland China, he left Dubai long ago , there is a danger that he's return will cause complete anarchy , not because what the idiot will say or do, but what other idiots will do and there lies the danger , Thailand is up the creek without a paddle, if this stupid man decides to return and lets face it, six years these days isn't a long time, unless you are my age, you could be dead , just like big "T" could end up, not a good option.coffee1.gif

Thaksin can return anytime....he doesn't need to wait the statutes to expire.....

But in reality, he will not come back....it would be far too dangerous for him and his family....

Posted

Thaksin built a political machine that ran on a simple principle: find out what people want, and give it to them. This is the underlying force that the generals have to contend with: not Thaksin, but the dramatically changed society that stubbornly brought him to power.

The Thai Army also needs to ask itself how they will stop ousting Governments and installing new ones?

They need to accept many urban and country areas are the new electoral bases.

Unfortunately Tatpim's train pulled into the station in the 1950's. His rhetoric misses the basic tenets of what is needed to change at this pointwhistling.gif .

That's what I thought a good journalist would write about.

Posted

The O.P. is indeed a fine lesson as to why an administration composed of non political individuals must be allowed the mandate to run this country for at least two years.

A review of the situation at the end of that two year period would enable people to see if an extension of that mandate was needed or whether a return to a more democratic society might be possible.

There are many vultures political and financially and filial hovering above Thailand waiting like vultures to pick at the carcass of Thailand as are those ground based rats on the sidelines are too if this latest power takeover fails.

We are as I have said before at a crosroads and the road taken will determine both the future of Thailand and its peoples for many years .

Non political? The army are the one omnipresent in the whole Thai political landscape since 1932......they have been in power probably more time than any political party, at the very least they are extremely complicit in the state the country is in, and that is being kind.

Why people suddenly think they are some beacon of virtuosity is mind blowing really....

Why people suddenly think they are some beacon of virtuosity is mind blowing really

? Just watch reality

Posted

Thaskin can return after statute of limitations expires around six years , anyway, Thaskin also resides in either HK or mainland China, he left Dubai long ago , there is a danger that he's return will cause complete anarchy , not because what the idiot will say or do, but what other idiots will do and there lies the danger , Thailand is up the creek without a paddle, if this stupid man decides to return and lets face it, six years these days isn't a long time, unless you are my age, you could be dead , just like big "T" could end up, not a good option.coffee1.gif

a real democracy will stand a man like Thaksin. He got good ideas to develop this country. It's too easy (and stupid) to call him stupid, man!

Posted

Clearly, Thaksin's opponents have learned the lessons of the 2006 putsch, after which the toppled leader was able to dust himself down and climb back into the saddle. This time around, the cards have been played much more astutely and we could be witnessing the demise of a political dynasty.

Exiled lonesome cowboy Thaksin now finds himself re-cast, embarrassingly, as a Trojan horse. His political transgressions and those of his deposed sister Yingluck are fueling the programme of sweeping political and social reforms now being rolled out by the military junta. These include a new Charter and a proposal to give the unelected NCPO the right, in the interests of national security, to call a coups against any future elected government.

Faced with a totally transformed and hostile political landscape in his homeland, plus the prospect of a two-year jail sentence imposed in his absence, the odds are the fugitive ex-premier will finally confront reality, cut his losses and ride quietly off into the sunset.

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.



×
×
  • Create New...