Thai rice-pledging scheme: '80 percent of rice is fine'

[webfact]

RICE-PLEDGING SCHEME
'80% of rice is fine'
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Only 10 per cent of rice stockpiles has spoiled and only some sacks were missing, while 80 per cent was in still good condition, the rice inspection committee reported to the Rice Policy Committee meeting yesterday.

The audit of 18 million tonnes of pledged rice stored in granaries has progressed by 72 per cent to 1,290 out of 1,787 locations nationwide.

Rice releases could not be rushed as the market mechanism has to be relied on to minimise instability in rice prices, said General Chatchai Sarikalaya, the National Council for Peace and Order's deputy director for economic affairs.

Jirachai Moonthongroy, inspector-general at the PM's Office, who led the 52nd inspection team, said all 11 warehouses in Phitsanulok have been checked and less than 5 per cent of the rice on record was found missing or exaggerated in volume.

The farm produce centres now being set up in border areas should include rice, NCPO director General Prayuth Chan-ocha said.

He also urged the committee to conduct a feasibility study on applying the coop system to manage these centres.

The centres would gather farm harvests and process them for export, while also purchasing crops from neighbouring countries via a quota system to prevent smuggling into Thailand.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/national/80-of-rice-is-fine-30239697.html

-- The Nation 2014-07-29

[siampolee]

Only 20% of the rice is either not fit for human consumption or is missing, sounds reasonable until one works out the quantity and the cost doesn't it?

Now the question is, where is the missing rice or did it ever exist, now the money one presumes was paid for the ''missing rice?''

Where did it (the money) go and to who and when and how much?

Note also that the audit is but 72% complete, so as yet the true figures (if such figures do or are allowed to exist in Thailand) have yet to be seen.

Lies, dammed lies, statistics.

Edited July 28, 2014 by siampolee

[Robby nz]

So 80% is good, 10% is not good and the other 10% (some sacks missing) is gone.

Presumably the spoiled means not fit for human consumption and the remaining 10% is only speculation although there seems little else it could be other than the 'missing sacks', which could be either removed or never existed.

The 80% would be at present but could well decrease with time and when they get closer to the bottom of the stacks.

Getting rid of it without overly effecting the price will be a big problem.

[BSJ]

If we can project the findings so far to the full 100%, there is 1.8 million tons missing and 1.8 million tons spoiled. That's only 54000000000 baht of taxpayer money lost. Heck....why was I worried!

Edited July 28, 2014 by BSJ

[rametindallas]

80% of the rice is fine but the DNA tests are not all in and they don't know how much of that 'fine' rice was grown in Thailand or if it is of the right quality (%broken grains) to match the record books. I imagine there are a lot of important players in the rice business who, in exchange for leniency, are ready to divulge some things that were supposed to stay secret. Some crime may be covered up in exchange for information on higher ups.

[lemonjelly]

The remaining 80% must've been so heavily fumigated with pesticides to accommodate storage for such an abnormal length of time, I'm beginning to wonder where I might be able to buy Laos rice.

[ramrod711]

BANGKOK: -- Only 10 per cent of rice stockpiles has spoiled and only some sacks were missing, while 80 per cent was in still good condition, the rice inspection committee reported to the Rice Policy Committee meeting yesterday.

I imagine that this is related to yesterdays article, in which the author speculated that prosecuting Yingluck for fraud may cause unrest among her fans. So, we get "only some rice is missing", It is completely in line with the actions of every government Thailand has ever had, don't step on the toes of the rich.

[fab4]

BANGKOK: -- Only 10 per cent of rice stockpiles has spoiled and only some sacks were missing, while 80 per cent was in still good condition, the rice inspection committee reported to the Rice Policy Committee meeting yesterday.

I imagine that this is related to yesterdays article, in which the author speculated that prosecuting Yingluck for fraud may cause unrest among her fans. So, we get "only some rice is missing", It is completely in line with the actions of every government Thailand has ever had, don't step on the toes of the rich.

You never know maybe, just maybe, what the rice inspection committee reported was the truth and there was not wholesale pilfering by Yingluck as reported widely by members on this forum, and that maybe, just maybe, any "corruption" there was, was committed at a local level, not some great conspiracy of theft cooked up by the Shinawatra family.

[siampolee]

fab4 post # 8

You never know maybe, just maybe, what the rice inspection committee reported was the truth and there was not wholesale pilfering by Yingluck as reported widely by members on this forum, and that maybe, just maybe, any "corruption" there was, was committed at a local level, not some great conspiracy of theft cooked up by the Shinawatra family.

The classic spin, blame, all others, the little people.

A classic Nuremberg defence as used by despots and their stooges world wide.

Attack those least able to defend theirselves so as to save ones own skin.

[Chang_paarp]

20% not as it should be??

That is a con that Ferdinand Marcos would be proud of.

[alant]

Who owns the rice? has the unit price of it gone up to 18,000 thb? is old rice saleable at that price?

[fab4]

fab4 post # 8

You never know maybe, just maybe, what the rice inspection committee reported was the truth and there was not wholesale pilfering by Yingluck as reported widely by members on this forum, and that maybe, just maybe, any "corruption" there was, was committed at a local level, not some great conspiracy of theft cooked up by the Shinawatra family.

The classic spin, blame, all others, the little people.

A classic Nuremberg defence as used by despots and their stooges world wide.

Attack those least able to defend theirselves so as to save ones own skin.

Just how much more hyperbole can you muster? Are you seriously referencing the Nuremberg Trials with regard to my post? I suggest you go and have a little lie down.

ps The "Nuremberg Defence" refers to the "little people's" excuse that they were just following the orders of their superiors. Your use of that phrase to describe what I am suggesting, i.e that the, in your words, "little people", were acting independently of Yingluck et al, just doesn't make sense, does it?

[uty6543]

BANGKOK: -- Only 10 per cent of rice stockpiles has spoiled and only some sacks were missing, while 80 per cent was in still good condition, the rice inspection committee reported to the Rice Policy Committee meeting yesterday.

I imagine that this is related to yesterdays article, in which the author speculated that prosecuting Yingluck for fraud may cause unrest among her fans. So, we get "only some rice is missing", It is completely in line with the actions of every government Thailand has ever had, don't step on the toes of the rich.

You never know maybe, just maybe, what the rice inspection committee reported was the truth and there was not wholesale pilfering by Yingluck as reported widely by members on this forum, and that maybe, just maybe, any "corruption" there was, was committed at a local level, not some great conspiracy of theft cooked up by the Shinawatra family.

And just maybe it was the Shinawatra family.

[siampolee]

Fab4 do you really think action was taken by little people without authority from above?

Come now you profess to be an expert on Thailand etc, thus you should be well aware of just how society functions here.

You do as you are told, you do not act independently, thus those little people were asked, told, ordered whatever choice you may care to make to act and complete the possible actions that you speculate upon .

A delightful build up of layers of deceit so as to protect the vultures at the top.

[noitom]

The Thais say 80% is fine so it must be so. Their figures are indisputable.

[trogers]

The remaining 80% must've been so heavily fumigated with pesticides to accommodate storage for such an abnormal length of time, I'm beginning to wonder where I might be able to buy Laos rice.

I stopped eating rice since Jan this year - Ketogenic Diet. What a blessing in disguise.

[fab4]

BANGKOK: -- Only 10 per cent of rice stockpiles has spoiled and only some sacks were missing, while 80 per cent was in still good condition, the rice inspection committee reported to the Rice Policy Committee meeting yesterday.

I imagine that this is related to yesterdays article, in which the author speculated that prosecuting Yingluck for fraud may cause unrest among her fans. So, we get "only some rice is missing", It is completely in line with the actions of every government Thailand has ever had, don't step on the toes of the rich.

You never know maybe, just maybe, what the rice inspection committee reported was the truth and there was not wholesale pilfering by Yingluck as reported widely by members on this forum, and that maybe, just maybe, any "corruption" there was, was committed at a local level, not some great conspiracy of theft cooked up by the Shinawatra family.

And just maybe it was the Shinawatra family.

Well that's the beauty of the English Language when it's used properly. When I say maybe, I mean maybe. By definition that does leave other conclusions to be drawn, but thanks for pointing out that fact

[Hawk]

A 20% loss isn't bad when one realizes this is Thailand.

[GAZZPA]

I read recently that the Thai rice scheme has cost 13 billion Pounds sterling,, or about 22 billion USD.

So, 4.4 billion USD in rice (20%) is not saleable and 1.1 billion USD is missing!

So where has the 1.1 billion USD gone and how much of the 4.4 billion was smuggled rice from Burma?

I suspect someone has got very rich from this scheme...

[Baerboxer]

A 20% loss isn't bad when one realizes this is Thailand.

[Thailand]

"Jirachai Moonthongroy, inspector-general at the PM's Office, who led the 52nd inspection team, said all 11 warehouses in Phitsanulok have been checked and less than 5 per cent of the rice on record was found missing or exaggerated in volume."

I guess there must be a plus or minus 5% error in such a large count. Does not look like too much amiss, at least in Phitsanulok.

Not good news for some perhaps?

[Baerboxer]

BANGKOK: -- Only 10 per cent of rice stockpiles has spoiled and only some sacks were missing, while 80 per cent was in still good condition, the rice inspection committee reported to the Rice Policy Committee meeting yesterday.

I imagine that this is related to yesterdays article, in which the author speculated that prosecuting Yingluck for fraud may cause unrest among her fans. So, we get "only some rice is missing", It is completely in line with the actions of every government Thailand has ever had, don't step on the toes of the rich.

You never know maybe, just maybe, what the rice inspection committee reported was the truth and there was not wholesale pilfering by Yingluck as reported widely by members on this forum, and that maybe, just maybe, any "corruption" there was, was committed at a local level, not some great conspiracy of theft cooked up by the Shinawatra family.

Maybe you are correct, maybe not. I doubt the Thai public and we farang shall ever really know.

The money trail is more interesting of course. What was really sold to whom and for what for; what was bought from whom and what was paid; what was actually borrowed etc etc. The G2G deals, the forged export documentation, the involvement of certain rice companies and MP's. All will be lost in the detail. The accounting trail and actual physical transactions of money details will no doubt be lost forever somewhere.

Whatever, Yingluck chose to ignore all warnings and deny anything was wrong, deny there was any rice missing and deny there was any quality issues. She also vowed farmers would be paid which never happened as promised. So at best she is negligent and lied even she wasn't involved in any corruption directly.

But eh, she's happy enjoying kareoke and partying in Paris, along with other members of her family, including one who should be serving a prison sentence.

[Ricardo]

The Thais say 80% is fine so it must be so. Their figures are indisputable.

I hope that the potential customers would agree, with the Thai definition of "fine", otherwise there might be a problem in selling it ?

[worgeordie]

How can they say that ?,have they opened every sack,

moved every stack of rice to see whats in the middle,if

they are saying 20 % now,you can bet the real fiquire

will be more like 50 % +, the upshot of this they don't really

know and its all just a vague or best guess,but in Thailand

thats good enough !

regards Worgeordie

[djjamie]

"Jirachai Moonthongroy, inspector-general at the PM's Office, who led the 52nd inspection team, said all 11 warehouses in Phitsanulok have been checked and less than 5 per cent of the rice on record was found missing or exaggerated in volume."

I guess there must be a plus or minus 5% error in such a large count. Does not look like too much amiss, at least in Phitsanulok.

Not good news for some perhaps?

Not good news for some perhaps?

Thats right. Not good news for yingluck. She sent her "investigation" teams in the form of the Commerce ministry and the PWO to investigate irregularities and they found 0% irregularities. But what does one expect with the Commerce ministry is run by the PTP and the PWO is run by Chalerm's son's mate. When they found nothing that tells me they are hiding something. If they found something then they would have been serious about uncovering the corruption.

They found nothing which is 5% less than what the Junta investigation team found in Phitsanulok.

[OZEMADE]

Only 72% has been looked at to date, only 10% is missing and the other 10% to date has spoiled.

So working it out on there being only 28% left to check out, on the grounds of probability there will be only 10% missing or some over quoted weights.

So what has all the fuss been about.

The Thai Long Grain rice that has been shipped to and bagged in Australia, is being sold by Woolworths for $10-00 for a 10Kg bag at the moment.

The wife said it was crap and she feeds it to the Cockatoos, who reckon it's great. She went back to Aussie rice, bit dearer but better quality

[Nickymaster]

So there is basically 20% missing or obsolete. That is already a few billion dollar worth of rice. The fact that Yingluck's government didn't know this already is proof of gross negligence. She basically had no clue about the status of the rice stocks. Not bad knowing she was in charge of this scheme.

And then there is the alleged sale of rice below market price to friendly foreign trading companies.

Let's see where this ends.

Edited July 29, 2014 by Nickymaster

[tpazzi]

Looking at the projections for 2014 global rice projection... The Thai's could potentially score a windfall profit from the scheme if the projected forecasts (recently downgraded due to potential El Nino related weather patterns) come true. It would easily make up for a 10% or 20% spoilage loss.

This is not an uncommon game played by commodity producers. If the price goes in your favor you can make a fortune. If it moves against you, you try to hold on longer if you can. For example, oil tankers are often held outside of port waiting for a favorable spike in crude prices. etc. The US plays a similar game with corn, although it's more of a farmer subside than a wealth building scheme.

As with any investment, it doesn't always work out. Probably the most famous example is when New Zealand tried to standardize the price for wool and got stuck holding massive inventory in a market glut.

Will it work out for Thailand? Who knows - but it's not automatically a bad plan. If they have the capacity to store rice long term without spoilage, then they can simply wait for a seller's market. Further, given the crop disruptions that global weather change will inflict, the collective group of rice producers would be wise to develop a coherent inventorying scheme to balance out the feast/famine cycles.

As a day trader, I'd love to be short on the rice futures if Thailand ever decide to dump all the held inventory on the market all at once. (of course, they won't.)

-tom

Edited July 29, 2014 by tpazzi

[Nickymaster]

BANGKOK: -- Only 10 per cent of rice stockpiles has spoiled and only some sacks were missing, while 80 per cent was in still good condition, the rice inspection committee reported to the Rice Policy Committee meeting yesterday.

I imagine that this is related to yesterdays article, in which the author speculated that prosecuting Yingluck for fraud may cause unrest among her fans. So, we get "only some rice is missing", It is completely in line with the actions of every government Thailand has ever had, don't step on the toes of the rich.

You never know maybe, just maybe, what the rice inspection committee reported was the truth and there was not wholesale pilfering by Yingluck as reported widely by members on this forum, and that maybe, just maybe, any "corruption" there was, was committed at a local level, not some great conspiracy of theft cooked up by the Shinawatra family.

Massive corruption at local level and Yingluck had no clue about it because she never bothered to have the stock checked. Therefor, according to Fab4 she is innocent?

Or she didn't bother to have the stocks checked because she knew her friends' companies would be caught....

[Emster23]

"Rice releases could not be rushed as the market mechanism has to be relied on to minimise instability in rice prices" Uh, almost sounds like someone took a class in economics. Well played....