US and EU expand sanctions on Russia

Publicus · August 3, 2014

Harsh Jones:

Everytime you try and make a point, I demonstrate precisely why that either cannot or will not happen or how you are using a flawed analysis. You ignore that and throw some new hysteria/Tyler Durden nutty stuff back in the mix for a bit of misdirection.

Although you do not cite or indicate where you material and images come from, your fancy tables and charts are more zerohedge/Tyler Durden hysteria timewaster bs.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fofoa-golds-focal-point-or-silver-money-too?page=3

Its all good. Live in a paranoid fantasy land, buy a bunch of gold, prepare for the crash of the dollar and hyper inflation and see where it gets you. You might as well move to a shack in the mountains off the grid while your at it because there is a better chance of the guuuuuuubbberment coming to take your guns and stuff away, WW3 breaking out, you getting Ebola and/or you becoming a part of a secret government experiment like the Matrix than the dollar crashing. Come to think of it, I think I read somehwhere that the men in black where on the way to get someone going by the fancy moniker of Hash Brown on Thai Visa so you may want to change your screen name and move to somehwhere else quickly.

If gold is only for paranoid people living in fantasy land, why is it on line one of the ECB balance sheet ?

Why in 2012, did The Basel Committee for Bank Supervision under Basel 3, declare that gold is now a tier one asset ?

Gold has value.

Gold has always had value and it will continue to have value.

Reverting to the gold standard is however a serious regression and is illusory.

Whether it's 1896 or 2014, it is a gargantuan mistake to crucify our economy on a cross of gold.

(Wikimedia Commons)

Harsh Jones · August 3, 2014

Harsh Jones:

Everytime you try and make a point, I demonstrate precisely why that either cannot or will not happen or how you are using a flawed analysis. You ignore that and throw some new hysteria/Tyler Durden nutty stuff back in the mix for a bit of misdirection.

Although you do not cite or indicate where you material and images come from, your fancy tables and charts are more zerohedge/Tyler Durden hysteria timewaster bs.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fofoa-golds-focal-point-or-silver-money-too?page=3

Its all good. Live in a paranoid fantasy land, buy a bunch of gold, prepare for the crash of the dollar and hyper inflation and see where it gets you. You might as well move to a shack in the mountains off the grid while your at it because there is a better chance of the guuuuuuubbberment coming to take your guns and stuff away, WW3 breaking out, you getting Ebola and/or you becoming a part of a secret government experiment like the Matrix than the dollar crashing. Come to think of it, I think I read somehwhere that the men in black where on the way to get someone going by the fancy moniker of Hash Brown on Thai Visa so you may want to change your screen name and move to somehwhere else quickly.

If gold is only for paranoid people living in fantasy land, why is it on line one of the ECB balance sheet ?

Why in 2012, did The Basel Committee for Bank Supervision under Basel 3, declare that gold is now a tier one asset ?

Gold has value.

Gold has always had value and it will continue to have value.

Reverting to the gold standard is however a serious regression and is illusory.

Whether it's 1896 or 2014, it is a gargantuan mistake to crucify our economy on a cross of gold.

(Wikimedia Commons)

I certainly never said anything about going back to a gold standard. Gold float ? Yes. That's nothing like a gold standard.

F430murci · August 3, 2014

The insinuation that Germany would pick Russia over US in terms of economic ties is laughable and reflects no basic grasp of Germany's economy.

Germany's economy is export dependent as a result of factors I mentioned above when discussing Euro failures and artificially low wages in Germany. This resulted in the remaining Euro countries operating in trade deficits and created much harm in ither Euro countries. Shit happens and other countries allowed this to happen by joining the Euro. Nevertheless, the entire German economic model depends upon maintaining trade surplus which could be instantly lost if Germany severed ties with US in favor of ties with Russian who cannot even begin to make up for the loss of export to US, much less other country exports Germany would lose such as UK, France, Italy, Spain and etc. An export reliant country also does not want to have an appreciating currency.

Gas/oil imports from Russia can be accommodated by other sources, albeit with some short-term difficulty Germany would prefer to avoid. German mfg losses and investment in emerging market losses caused by severing ties with Russia, while painful to Germany, would pale in comparison to losses Germany would sustain by aligning with Russia and severing economic ties with US.

Russia's economy is in shambles and the average Russian cannot afford to buy ribeye or tenderloin steaks for dinner, much less purchase brand new expensive German vehicles or luxury items like Bosch kitchen appliances. I spent about 45 days in Russa in the last year and the average Russian's purchasing power is alarmingly low compared to even low wage earners in the US.

F430murci · August 3, 2014

Last one as it clearly is an act in futility for some that are determined, or at least hopeful, to see the US fall into ruins.

---------

If the European economy is so shaky, why is the euro so strong?

An appreciating currency can cause serious problems. Exchange rates are an important determinant of the price of a countrys goods on world markets. If American car prices hold steady while the dollar strengthens, then the cost of American cars in yen or euros rises and America will sell fewer of them abroad. Europe has more reason than most to fear a strong currency. With firms, households and governments all cutting back, Europe is reliant on exports to drive growth and hiring. Some European leaders, such as France's president, François Hollande, worry that a strong euro is hurting European exporters

Explaining exchange-rate moves is a near-impossible task. A currency might rise as improving economic prospects attract foreign capitalor because domestic banks are liquidating foreign investments and bringing money home to cover expected losses. Yet two factors look especially culpable for the euro's recent strength. . . .

http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/11/economist-explains-10

Harsh Jones · August 3, 2014

The insinuation that Germany would pick Russia over US in terms of economic ties is laughable and reflects no basic grasp of Germany's economy.

Germany's economy is export dependent as a result of factors I mentioned above when discussing Euro failures and artificially low wages in Germany. This resulted in the remaining Euro countries operating in trade deficits and created much harm in ither Euro countries. Shit happens and other countries allowed this to happen by joining the Euro. Nevertheless, the entire German economic model depends upon maintaining trade surplus which could be instantly lost if Germany severed ties with US in favor of ties with Russian who cannot even begin to make up for the loss of export to US, much less other country exports Germany would lose such as UK, France, Italy, Spain and etc. An export reliant country also does not want to have an appreciating currency.

Gas/oil imports from Russia can be accommodated by other sources, albeit with some short-term difficulty Germany would prefer to avoid. German mfg losses and investment in emerging market losses caused by severing ties with Russia, while painful to Germany, would pale in comparison to losses Germany would sustain by aligning with Russia and severing economic ties with US.

Russia's economy is in shambles and the average Russian cannot afford to buy ribeye or tenderloin steaks for dinner, much less purchase brand new expensive German vehicles or luxury items like Bosch kitchen appliances. I spent about 45 days in Russa in the last year and the average Russian's purchasing power is alarmingly low compared to even low wage earners in the US.

The highlighted is a keynesian fallacy.

1) The US dollar went from 120 to 80 and through this time period, the trade deficit got larger. Not smaller.

2)The Euro went from under 1 USD to 1.40 and through this time period, Germany's trade surplus got bigger.

3) Germany has higher wages then the US, yet they have a trade surplus with China.

And about Russian energy trading with Germany. You don't seem to realize that pricing is at play. Russia has pricing leverage with Europe that simply cannot be matched by anyone else. Europe is all talk. They will be buying from Russia for a long time. Especially when they know that Russia is not the big bad USSR boogeyman. Russia's pricing already has Japan stepping up for talks. (US ally)

Financial post
Russia-China gas deal could squeeze economics of Canadian LNG projects: TD
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/05/30/russia-china-gas-deal-could-squeeze-economics-of-canadian-lng-projects-td/?__lsa=4af4-463e
Russia recently clinched a US$400-billion deal to feed China around 38 billion cubic metres of natural gas via pipelines at a chummy price of $10-$11 per million cubic feet, shaking up an industry that is used to fetching $14-$18 per mcf from Asian markets.

The deal has already created ripples across LNG-dependent markets such as Japan. This week, 38 Japanese lawmakers said they plan to lobby Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to revive a stalled Russia-Japan natural gas pipeline.

You change subjects, cite spot cherry picked data and refuse to look at the big picture when confronted with fallacy of your arguments.

Euro is trading within a certain acceptable range on the dollar and US will buy expensive German products because we like them and can afford them.

The issue you avoid and changed topics on is what would happen to Germany's export surplus if it left the Euro and severed ties with US.

RE: oil and Gas. Other countries can supply as cheap as Russia and Russia's economy will implode if US/Saudi drove prices down to fill the temporary void and ease the transition . . . As explained above . . .

----------

What If Germany Seceded From The EU? 40% Appreciation And A Decimated Export Sector

The mess that has become the sovereign debt crisis in Europe has stirred the pot of secession, as commentators look at the possibility of Greece or any other peripherals leaving the Union. But what would happen if Germany were to leave the EU?

Germany would see its new national currency, lets call it the neo-Mark, rally strongly, about 40% UBS says, effectively forcing banks to recapitalize, taking a hit on corporate balance sheets, and, most importantly, delivering a strong blow to its all-important export sector, as trade would fall initially by 20%, and then maybe by more.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2011/09/08/what-would-happen-if-germany-seceded-from-the-eu/

I just proved with actual facts that an appreciating currency does not weigh on export ability. The US after WW2, was the biggest exporter in the world and with that, they also had the strongest currency. That is not cherry picking data. That is a simple fact that proves Keynesians wrong.

We already know what would happen if Germany's currency appreciated by 40%. The Euro was .85 to the dollar in 2001. It went up to 1.38 in 2005. That's more then 40% and exports went up. Not down. The author of that article is a Keynesian.

Russia has location advantage with Europe. Nobody can undercut Russia vis a vis Europe for gas.

Mosha · August 4, 2014

Dobrolet ceased ops today. Their 2 aircraft were leased through an Irish company. Dobrolet are part of Aeroflot. They say it's down to the sanctions.

craigt3365 · August 4, 2014

An off topic post along with an associated reply has been removed from view. This isn't about Israel.

Apologies to the member with the appropriate reply.

wiki12 · August 4, 2014

metisdead · August 4, 2014

Off topic posts have been removed.

lovetotravel · August 4, 2014

Maybe the sanctions are starting to take hold?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28637794

As many as 27,000 Russian tourists are stranded abroad after a Russian tour firm, Labirint, suspended operations.

A company statement (in Russian) blamed the move on a deterioration in the rouble exchange rate and the "negative political and economic situation".

There are signs that EU-US sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine crisis are hurting the wider economy, including Western investment in Russia.

A Russian tycoon says his executive jet is grounded because of US sanctions.

Harsh Jones · August 4, 2014

Land for gas: Merkel and Putin discussed secret deal could end Ukraine crisis

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/land-for-gas-secret-german-deal-could-end-ukraine-crisis-9638764.html

Margareta Pagano

Thursday 31 July 2014

The Independent can reveal that the peace plan, being worked on by both Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin, hinges on two main ambitions: stabilising the borders of Ukraine and providing the financially troubled country with a strong economic boost, particularly a new energy agreement ensuring security of gas supplies.

More controversially, if Ms Merkel’s deal were to be acceptable to the Russians, the international community would need to recognise Crimea’s independence and its annexation by Russia, a move that some members of the United Nations might find difficult to stomach.

At the same time, the Ukrainian President would agree not to apply to join Nato. In return, President Putin would not seek to block or interfere with Ukraine’s new trade relations with the European Union under a pact signed a few weeks ago.

lovetotravel · August 5, 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-04/germany-blocks-combat-training-center-for-russia.html

Germany Blocks Rheinmetall Sale of Russian Combat Center

German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel withdrew permission for Rheinmetall AG (RHM) to build a military training center east of Moscow as France prepares to hand over the first of two warships to Russia’s navy.

The government’s approval has been dropped “in light of European Union sanctions,” the German Economy Ministry, which Gabriel runs, said in an e-mail to Bloomberg News.

.......

The EU agreed last week to bar Russia’s state-owned banks from selling shares or bonds in Europe and put restrictions on oil and military industry exports. The U.S. followed with penalties against three Russian banks and a state-owned shipbuilder. Rheinmetall is among German companies including sporting-goods maker Adidas AG (ADS) and car-parts supplier Continental AG (CON) being impacted by the deepening sanctions.

..........

In Russia, EU sanctions have grounded the discount arm of state-controlled airline OAO Aeroflot after suppliers annulled aircraft leasing, servicing and insurance contracts with the unit. The carrier’s destinations had included Simferopol, the regional capital of the Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in March.

lovetotravel · August 5, 2014

Seems the oligarchs are starting to be worn down also:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/vladimir-putin/10993971/Splits-emerging-in-Putins-Russia-as-oligarchs-locked-in-power-struggle-with-Kremlin-hardliners.html

Splits emerging in Putin's Russia as oligarchs locked in power struggle with Kremlin hardliners

Economic sanctions causing divisions in Russia despite Vladimir Putin's attempts to show world a united front, according to German intelligence reports

Germany's intelligence services have informed Chancellor Angela Merkel's government that a power struggle is under way in the Kremlin with hardliners and oligarchs at loggerheads over how best to respond to western economic sanctions, according to media reports.

German intelligence chief Gerhard Schindler has told the Berlin parliament's foreign affairs committee that cracks are beginning to appear in the united front that President Vladmir Putin is seeking to present to the world, Der Spiegel magazine said on Sunday.

Mr Schindler was reported to have told the committee and subsequently Mrs Merkel personally that a struggle had broken out in the Kremlin with hardliners and oligarchs seeking to exert their influence on President Putin.

"According to German intelligence it is quite possible that some of the oligarchs who are worried by European Union sanctions will soon start putting economic interests above political concerns and try to put the brakes on Putin," Der Spiegel wrote.

Harsh Jones · August 5, 2014

Russia may restrict trans Siberian flights for EU airlines.

Reuters

The Russian business daily Vedomosti quoted unnamed sources as saying the foreign and transport ministries were discussing possible action which might force EU airlines into long and costly detours and put them at a disadvantage to Asian rivals.

Russia may restrict or ban European airlines from flying over Siberia on busy Asian routes, a newspaper reported on Tuesday, following Western sanctions which have grounded one Russian carrier and a billionaire's private jet.

Vedomosti quoted one source as saying a ban could cost carriers including Lufthansa, British Airways and Air France 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) over three months. Restrictions would lead to longer flights, higher fuel use and other additional costs.

lovetotravel · August 5, 2014

http://zeenews.india.com/news/world/sanctions-may-force-russia-to-raise-taxes-pm_952700.html

Moscow: Russia may be forced to raise taxes in next year's budget to make up for the impact of Western sanctions imposed over Moscow's Ukraine policy, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said Tuesday.

The budgets for 2015-2017 will "have to reflect the current situation in the Russian and global economies, including the negative consequences of sanctions launched against some of our companies and, in essence, against the whole country," he told a government meeting.

......

The IMF last month said it now expects the Russian economy to grow by just 0.2 percent this year, although Russian officials have stated they see an expansion of around 1 percent.

craigt3365 · August 6, 2014

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Harsh Jones · August 6, 2014

Loopholes Blunt Impact of U.S., EU Sanctions Over Ukraine

http://online.wsj.com/articles/eu-units-of-russian-banks-exempt-from-sanctions-1406714101

The economic sanctions that the U.S. and European Union imposed Tuesday against Russian banks were designed to severely punish a key part of Russia's economy. But their immediate impact is likely to be relatively muted.

The U.S. sanctions don't include Russia's biggest bank, and the EU carved out a loophole for big parts of the lenders that are affected.

lovetotravel · August 6, 2014

Looks like Russia is trying to calm things down. Not!

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/05/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

Russian troop increase at Ukraine border raises concerns

Donetsk, Ukraine (CNN) -- A new buildup of Russian troops along the Ukraine border raised concerns Tuesday that Moscow might be contemplating another intervention like the one that annexed Crimea earlier this year.

According to a NATO official, Russia now has about 20,000 troops stationed "in an area along the entire border with eastern Ukraine." The buildup nearly doubled the troop deployment in the last week by adding 8,000 more forces to 12,000 already there, the official said.

.......

Meanwhile, Russian combat aircraft crew will practice firing at air and ground targets in unfamiliar territory, the defense ministry said of the military exercises in the region. The maneuvers will involve 100 aircraft, including fighter jets, bombers and combat helicopters.

And they've got the nerve to blame the West for this? Laughable.

Harsh Jones · August 6, 2014

Looks like Russia is trying to calm things down. Not!

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/05/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

Russian troop increase at Ukraine border raises concerns

Donetsk, Ukraine (CNN) -- A new buildup of Russian troops along the Ukraine border raised concerns Tuesday that Moscow might be contemplating another intervention like the one that annexed Crimea earlier this year.

According to a NATO official, Russia now has about 20,000 troops stationed "in an area along the entire border with eastern Ukraine." The buildup nearly doubled the troop deployment in the last week by adding 8,000 more forces to 12,000 already there, the official said.

.......

Meanwhile, Russian combat aircraft crew will practice firing at air and ground targets in unfamiliar territory, the defense ministry said of the military exercises in the region. The maneuvers will involve 100 aircraft, including fighter jets, bombers and combat helicopters.

And they've got the nerve to blame the West for this? Laughable.

There are 67,000 US troops in Europe as of 2014.

lovetotravel · August 6, 2014

Looks like Russia is trying to calm things down. Not!

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/05/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

Russian troop increase at Ukraine border raises concerns

Donetsk, Ukraine (CNN) -- A new buildup of Russian troops along the Ukraine border raised concerns Tuesday that Moscow might be contemplating another intervention like the one that annexed Crimea earlier this year.

According to a NATO official, Russia now has about 20,000 troops stationed "in an area along the entire border with eastern Ukraine." The buildup nearly doubled the troop deployment in the last week by adding 8,000 more forces to 12,000 already there, the official said.

.......

Meanwhile, Russian combat aircraft crew will practice firing at air and ground targets in unfamiliar territory, the defense ministry said of the military exercises in the region. The maneuvers will involve 100 aircraft, including fighter jets, bombers and combat helicopters.

And they've got the nerve to blame the West for this? Laughable.

There are 67,000 US troops in Europe as of 2014.

Absolutely correct. But almost 50% of them didn't just recently show up and they for sure haven't recently invaded a sovereign nation and captured territory, claiming it for their own.

Bit of a difference there.

Asiantravel · August 6, 2014

Putin signs decree on countermeasures to Western sanctions

MOSCOW, August 06. /ITAR-TASS/. President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday signed a decree on countermeasures to Western sanctions.

The document entitled “On the Application of Certain Special Economic Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation” prohibits or restricts, for one year, the import of certain kinds of agricultural products, raw materials and food originating in a country that has imposed economic sanctions against Russian companies and (or) individuals or has joined such sanctions.

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/743798

lovetotravel · August 7, 2014

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/06/world/europe/russia-ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

"Russia's Central Bank yesterday pointed out that bans on imported food will push up Russia's already high inflation rate, eroding the purchasing power of Russian citizens," the official said.

The United States insists that sanctions against Russian businesses and individuals are having and effect and already weakened Russia's economy.

"Sanctions are working as intended in putting enormous pressure and strain on the Russian economy. ... The economy has ground to halt," U.S. President Barack Obama told reporters on Wednesday.

Putin's putting his citizens at risk all due to his disastrous decisions. The Russian people should have a free media to report all the news. Not just what the government wants them to hear. Things would probably change rapidly.

Harsh Jones · August 7, 2014

Russia Sanctions Accelerate Risk to Dollar Dominance

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-sanctions-accelerate-risk-dollar-060237135.html

U.S. and European Union sanctions against Russia threaten to hasten a move away from the dollar that's been stirring since the global financial crisis.

One place the shift has become evident is Hong Kong, where dollar selling has led the central bank to buy more than $9.5 billion since July 1 to prevent its currency from rallying as the sanctions stoked speculation of an influx of Russian cash.

lovetotravel · August 7, 2014

Russia Sanctions Accelerate Risk to Dollar Dominance

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-sanctions-accelerate-risk-dollar-060237135.html

U.S. and European Union sanctions against Russia threaten to hasten a move away from the dollar that's been stirring since the global financial crisis.

One place the shift has become evident is Hong Kong, where dollar selling has led the central bank to buy more than $9.5 billion since July 1 to prevent its currency from rallying as the sanctions stoked speculation of an influx of Russian cash.

You cherry picked a bit. The dollar will be dominant for the rest of our lives, guaranteed. From the same article:

While no one's suggesting the dollar will lose its status as the main currency of business any time soon, its dominance is ebbing. The greenback's share of global reserves has already shrunk to under 61 percent from more than 72 percent in 2001.

.....

Such a transformation may take as long as 25 years, with the dollar remaining "top of the heap" even as other currencies play a greater role, Quinlan said, speaking by phone on Aug. 4 from New York.

lovetotravel · August 7, 2014

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