Foreign tourist arrivals in Thailand drop 10.28 percent

[MJP]

With rising living costs and stagnant wage growth, disposable income in the consumer countries is falling. I reckon that's the primary reason for the fall in tourist numbers.

If these numbers are compared to tourist numbers in similar destinations (long haul, say two to three week breaks) I wonder if there's a difference?

Of course recent events won't help matters.

• British Airways owner falls by 7% - knocking £500million off market value
• Low-cost airline easyJet down 5%; cruise ship operator Carnival falls 6%
• There are fears that disease's spread could cause major travel disruption

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2783947/Ebola-panic-hits-airlines-travel-firms-millions-knocked-share-prices-Spanish-case-deadly-virus.html

Thai tourism is off because tourism anywhere that airplanes fly is off because of the Ebola scare. Nor rocket science really is it?

Ebola's too recent to effect the numbers like this. Unions are starting to strike in the UK (as an example) over pay not keeping up with living costs. Boomer generation (the one with the money) is getting older and less likely to travel further than local these days, Thailand is a long old haul from US and Europe. Australia is suffering from high living costs in an economy that's been heavily dependent on mining, which is slowing down.

No I think it's demographic change and economic factors mostly at play here although Ebola fears will have an acute impact in the coming months.

[englishoak]

Besides, KT is not symbolic of all the islands - far from it I would hope.

From what I have seen, KT is a perfect example of all the islands.

Rape, murder, violence, gang control and mafia.

must say i found Kho Chang to be different from most of the other islands...very peaceful.

Have spent a lot of tine on Ko Chang and spoken with a lot of expat business owners there - never had any trouble and no a hint of mafia as far as can tell. Will be goig back as soon as I can.

Ko Chang ( eastern seaboard ) is a bit different as its got a LOT of BKK big money there has invested since the early 2000s and mafia families never got a hold, there is mafia of course but its very low key and isnt allowed to encroach on the tourist business. Yet its still a national park and technically it shouldnt have most of the building done there that has been done, but they still built, so even there is riddled with corruption.

15 years ago there was litle there on KC whereas the Samui Islands were already 15 - 25 years spoiled by then.

It is a better Island but its a sad shadow of what it was, much less friendly and getting just as built up and ruined as the rest, just more slowly.

[bbbbooboo]

Wouldn't Thai logic be a contradiction in terms?

[tonbridgebrit]

Then why are all my favorite hotels charging higher advertised rates this year than the same months last year?

Because they are using Thai-logic... When demand is low, then raise the prices to recover the lost revenue.

when demand is low,lower your prices further........then go bust! The UK has thousands of bust companies who followed the lower your price strategy. I think just hold your price and don't panic is the best move. Thai -logic is arrogant towards pricing policies. They will advertise a vacant room ,increase its rent by whatever percent year on year,even if 10 years later they never rented the room for 1 week they would believe themselves justified.Never thinking they were asking too much ten years ago and it still applies.

All because they heard second hand that someone somewhere was getting said x amount for a similar room.

But you have to balance the books,and if that means increasing prices to cover costs so be it. Whats the alternative! put money in.....no thats just a western idea.Thai-logic does not go there.

How about this ?

When the number of 'customers' is falling, right, you might feel that the customers who are still there are the 'hard-core addicts'. These people will carry on being customers, so you might want to bump up prices.

People who love going to Pattaya, Nana and Soi Cowboy, in all honesty, there's no other places like them on planet earth. So, yes, bump up prices if there is a reduction of customers. Those customers will continue to arrive, only a nuclear bomb will stop the genuine 'sex tourist' !

Actually, if there's no reduction in customers, bump up prices anyway. Where are they going to go ? There's no Nana or Soi Cowboy in Rangoon or Phom Penh.

[jack19201]

Idea, If we count all the passenger come through the immigration regardless nationality than the figure/ % will show up rather than lower. Just a thought.x

[smotherb]

Then why are all my favorite hotels charging higher advertised rates this year than the same months last year?

Please, obvious logic; since there are fewer tourists, they have to charge more to the ones who do come.

[smotherb]

Then why are all my favorite hotels charging higher advertised rates this year than the same months last year?

Because they are using Thai-logic... When demand is low, then raise the prices to recover the lost revenue.

when demand is low,lower your prices further........then go bust! The UK has thousands of bust companies who followed the lower your price strategy. I think just hold your price and don't panic is the best move. Thai -logic is arrogant towards pricing policies. They will advertise a vacant room ,increase its rent by whatever percent year on year,even if 10 years later they never rented the room for 1 week they would believe themselves justified.Never thinking they were asking too much ten years ago and it still applies.

All because they heard second hand that someone somewhere was getting said x amount for a similar room.

But you have to balance the books,and if that means increasing prices to cover costs so be it. Whats the alternative! put money in.....no thats just a western idea.Thai-logic does not go there.

How about this ?

When the number of 'customers' is falling, right, you might feel that the customers who are still there are the 'hard-core addicts'. These people will carry on being customers, so you might want to bump up prices.

People who love going to Pattaya, Nana and Soi Cowboy, in all honesty, there's no other places like them on planet earth. So, yes, bump up prices if there is a reduction of customers. Those customers will continue to arrive, only a nuclear bomb will stop the genuine 'sex tourist' !

Actually, if there's no reduction in customers, bump up prices anyway. Where are they going to go ? There's no Nana or Soi Cowboy in Rangoon or Phom Penh.

You are right, no cop will stop you on the street, search you, and make you take a piss test in PP or Yangon.

[tonbridgebrit]

'Smotherb'

You do accept right, they will never build red-light districts, with bars that have stages for dancing girls, that cater for foreigners, they will never build such places in PP or Yangon ??

[princesiam]

Not sure why I am a <deleted> for making a point about high taxes on air fare? Please do explain.

[mjj]

My comment was aimed at Kozmo.

[princesiam]

Thailand taking a hammering again,look around the world and everything that happens in Thailand is happening else where,far worse in some cases!

Let me tell you one of the main reasons for a drop in tourism,the greedy taxes on airfares,it will cost me over 2 k to just fly me and my family there,(2 adults 2 children 2&6 yrs) and then travel and hotels on top, over 650 to fly to Samui because of the monopoly on flights there.

I love Thailand and been backpacking round for the last 15 + years! But it's getting harder to do because of Greed.

And cheap backpackers like you!!!

Why would I be cheap because we back pack,we back pack because we like the freedom to choose were we go and when we want to do it,and though none of your buisness we always have the best, so unless you know the facts keep your dumb opinions to yourself

[princesiam]

My comment was aimed at Kozmo.

My apologies sir

[Eurojomtien]

To SjaakNL2013

I understand that people need to be shocked to act. Please think of the families of these people they have had the worst time any of us could possibly imagine, Actually cannot imagine.

I know these pictures have been circulated elsewhere but please don't post them. imagine the hurt you cause if member of the family or a friend was reading through the supportive posts and then your post with a picture of what the disgusting animals did to their child or friend.

I don't think they will ever stop grieving and that is so unfair.

We should keep talking about the whole subject because it MAY bring the bastards that did this to justice and stop them doing it again but enough pain has already been given to the families.

That post containing that gory image has been removed. Pretty insensitive and uncaring to the family if they were to be reading this forum and to come across that post.

Well, one thing for sure, 'sensitive' and 'caring' are not the two adjectives that come to mind when defining the global attitude of most posters on this Forum.

Being able to hide behind a computer screen and a nickname obviously does nothing to bring out the best in keyboard cowboys. It just goes to prove how thin is the crust of 'civilization' on a fathomless ocean of barbarism.

Edited October 14, 2014 by Eurojomtien

[Fred Flinstone]

Of course the purpose of this news item is to dramatically under play the actual fall. Which is far higher.

How propaganda works is multi levelled -

The interaction of truths and half truths with plain falsehoods.

This is a glaring example-

The world sees that the Thais are suffering because people simply "don't like having "the military and bogus laws around a structured holiday.

So they advise us its FUN and SAFE and come and enjoy.

Well on one hand anyhow -

While on another try and tell us that even writing our thoughts in NEW York or Sydney or where ever you are is illegal .

When clearly its not.

Punishing, or threatening to punish people once in Thailand, for expressing thoughts in a different country where its called ""freedom"" of speech is a sign of thugs .

Its unlawful internationally , and seen as both cowardly and Oppressive in the extreme .

To lie about figures, far far higher , of what is essentially their international punishment by way of boycott does little to make people alter their view.

It might save face for a while - but not long.

If anything this succession of media propaganda makes people realise the extent of deceit at play.

Edited October 14, 2014 by Fred Flinstone

[hansgruber]

10% less traffic is fine by me.

Tour buses full of no spending Chinese on the decline would be even better.

Phuket has become the tour bus capital the last few years.

Sent from my LG-D858

[orosee]

Oldest trick in the book of statistics. Compare one frame of reference (year-on-year) with a completely different one (quarter-on-quarter) to say whatever you want to say.

High season in any year will have more arrivals than low season. Duh. Wait for the numbers high season 2013/14 versus 2014/15.

Other thoughts:

Was it really necessary to answer one specific question 30+ times? Nice to see so many helpful people but can't you guys read 1-2 pages to check if the question has been answered already? There's 3 pages worth of "if business down, Thais put prices up" posts in 8 pages total! I really wonder about the state of mind of the last 20 respondents.

Recent events (KT) won't be reflected in these statistics yet. But they may affect the next quarter. Also, permanent conditions (these long lists that were made by gentlemen with too much time and anger) would not be a cause of the drop. This is the result of the coup, MH and perhaps ebola.

Edited October 14, 2014 by orosee

[Greg Nixon]

This is not a massive drop but rather a normal fluctuation given the state of the world. If Thailand wants to significantly increase the tourist arrivals, they need to clean their image. That is they need to purge prostitution from the beaches. they need to make Thailand family friendly. No more corruption including the mafia. I spoke to a Thai woman who had just come from Pattaya and she said the Russian mafia were everywhere. Russian Mafia are not a tourist attraction at least not for the best tourists.

[thailiketoo]

This is not a massive drop but rather a normal fluctuation given the state of the world. If Thailand wants to significantly increase the tourist arrivals, they need to clean their image. That is they need to purge prostitution from the beaches. they need to make Thailand family friendly. No more corruption including the mafia. I spoke to a Thai woman who had just come from Pattaya and she said the Russian mafia were everywhere. Russian Mafia are not a tourist attraction at least not for the best tourists.

How does a Thai woman tell the difference between a Russian tourist and a Russian Mafia member? Since when do Pattaya ladies work the beach? All that sand? Hardly conducive to their profession. I think you have been misinformed. Pattaya was just fine till some Russians families tried to turn it into a family tourist area which it isn't suited for.

[hhgz]

Anytime that anyone involved with Thailand provides any statistic with two decimal places, that person is wrong. Many people in the higher echelons of the Thai hierarchy are trying to eliminate all costs ancillary costs associated with visiting Thailand, especially the low cost of the visa. Many times, they've claimed that visitors are deterred by the cost of a Thai visa, and this data allows them to point their collective finger. As with many others, he Thai government uses statistics in the same manner that a drunken farang uses a lamp post: for support, rather than for illumination.

[wilcopops]

This is not a massive drop but rather a normal fluctuation given the state of the world. If Thailand wants to significantly increase the tourist arrivals, they need to clean their image. That is they need to purge prostitution from the beaches. they need to make Thailand family friendly. No more corruption including the mafia. I spoke to a Thai woman who had just come from Pattaya and she said the Russian mafia were everywhere. Russian Mafia are not a tourist attraction at least not for the best tourists.

Whether you approve or not, prostitutution attracts tourists and Russian Mafia...if that's what they are.....are arrivals. So I'd say your argument doesn't make sense in that respect.

I think you are just citing things you personally don't like.

[bunuel]

The tourism minister, is the wife of one of the 1000 plus generals!

Doubtless sheerly a coincidence!!! Hasn't she demonstrated her profound

understanding of the global tourism industry with her brilliant promotional

ideas, like the ID bracelet to help identify dead tourists?? And what other

country can offer Martial Law tourism?? LOS has that market cornered for

forseeable future.

Besides, who wants the nattering nabobs of negativity anyway? Let them go

to Bali, Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia - who cares if high rolling farang

decide to go elsewhere? LOS has also cornered the market on Chinese low

roller group tours!

[metisdead]

A flame post has been extinguished.

[samuibeachcomber]

Besides, KT is not symbolic of all the islands - far from it I would hope.

From what I have seen, KT is a perfect example of all the islands.

Rape, murder, violence, gang control and mafia.

your post is spot on!

[ParadiseLost]

The one positive thing is TAT has been muzzled, it appears. Perhaps someone with integrity was asked to provide accurate information, for a change.

Great care was taken not to mention the islands, but again this was an opportunity missed, they could express condolences and support for (real) justice to be served.

Besides, KT is not symbolic of all the islands - far from it I would hope.

About your hope... I'm afraid it's wishful thinking, pal.

The five common points of all the islands in LOS are :

1. They're run by a limited number of clans who act like there's no law, simply because

2. they bribe the local authorities who are not numerous and therefore easily 'bought',

3. The locals usually have little or no idea about how to run a tourist business in a logical, rational and profitable way, but the profit comes in anyway so why should they care ?

4. The locals work as little as possible and hire an impressive proportion of illegal migrant workers, with very little legal risk (see point 2). Those migrant workers are paid a ridiculous amount, sleep and live in spartan conditions, are ill-treated and looked down upon by the locals, and have absolutely no sex life (Thai girls would not touch them even with a space suit on, prostitutes are not within their means and there are very few migrant girls because it would be extremely dangerous for them and they know it). These guys are therefore walking pressure cookers waiting to explode,

5. The locals have an insular mentality (not specific to Thai islands but can be seen in all islands around the world) which means they dislike anyone who is not from the island. Of course they learn to hide their contempt because they are not stupid and do realize that it's not good for business, but it oozes out of their attitude in a million ways for anyone who is minimally observant.

Well, perhaps. I was only hoping...

My thinking was that there have been no gruesome double murder and rape cases, on any of the islands in the past 10 years that I can recall. This is a particularly vicious crime and while I agree there are dangerous elements around, most would not carry out such a heinous crime through fear of community retribution. KT community has been silenced; perhaps they are not complicit, and any statements given are sealed, or vanished. Not typical of any island, but typical of Thailand.

So. not gonna argue your points because they are mostly true I guess. Point 4 is what has changed the most in the past few years? Perhaps becoming slave-masters removed the last semblance of decency and pride: Bahtism has displaced Buddhism.

I cannot agree the current KT murders were carried out by 'horny' migrants, acting solo but I can see how opaque Thai culture has become.

[samuibeachcomber]

I'd like to see some solid statistics (wouldn't we all).

For example - my numerous contacts in the hotel/resort business tell me that numbers are down overall, but revenue is disproportionately even lower. The Asian tourists have increased in numbers - but their stay typically is only for 3 to 5 days - therefore they are spending less per head and overall.

The number of Euro visitors has declined by much more than 10% - more like 20% or even more. But their length of stay is three times greater than their Asian counterparts - typically 10 to 13 days

So the overall effect on tourism is that there's a numbers drop of perhaps 10% overall. But what nobody is outlining is the comparatively big spenders are missing now, even though part of their numbers has been offset by Asians with smaller wallets.

R

Agree entirely...just look at the empty bars near empty restuarants.............one wonders what and where these asian tourist eat...thin air by the size of them.

[samuibeachcomber]

Then why are all my favorite hotels charging higher advertised rates this year than the same months last year?

Simple Thai logic - if fewer visitors are staying we must charge them more to make sure we have the same income! This may fall apart when it reaches the stage of one tourist having to fund the entire running cost of the establishment!!

[Jip66]

Then why are all my favorite hotels charging higher advertised rates this year than the same months last year?

Because Thai's have a backward thought on business sense, they believe that if booking numbers are down they can charge higher prices to whatever guests they do get to make up the difference, when really they should be lowering their prices to attract more guests, go figure!!!!

[ParadiseLost]

Besides, KT is not symbolic of all the islands - far from it I would hope.

From what I have seen, KT is a perfect example of all the islands.

Rape, murder, violence, gang control and mafia.

your post is spot on!

Why don't you guys at least attempt to add something of value to the discussion, instead of really lame one-liners - oops sorry AOA managed two...

[RTH10260]

Then why are all my favorite hotels charging higher advertised rates this year than the same months last year?

a few months back in a similiar thread a poster revealed what a receptionist leaked: the owners are compensating for the recent loss of business.

(TIT)

[samuibeachcomber]

Why am I not surprised? Is it perhaps because...

1) Visitors have realised that Thailand is far from "safe" due to the Koh Tao and other incidents?

2) The deep south is a civil war zone, although not officialy announced as such?

3) Democracy is dead in Thailand?

4) Thailand by now is without freedom of speech and under censorship?

5) Your friend and helper, the RTP is a corrupt pile of horse$#ite?

6) Many Thais are getting more uneasy and more aggressive by the day?

7) Foreigners are losing more and more rights and by now are stripped of the few privileges they previously had?

8) It still is unattractive to invest in Thailand since foreigner can own $#!t and due to all the additional minus pointes here it gets even more unattractive?

9) National and marine parks are being poached, neglected and handed to the fishery industry to be destoyed at will, while the park fees disappear in the rangers' pockets?

10) Martial law?

11) The smile in the land of such disappearing?

12) Prices increasing?

13) Quality decreasing?

14) ... on and on goes the list - it could fill a book

your point in no. 6....i completely agree with.We are seeing this more and more in the 'GULF" islands of Samui Koh Tao and phangan.