NeverSure Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Yes, they never radioed at all, and when they got low enough of course they went off radar. When you have an emergency such as a fire in the cabin or something the rule is "first fly the airplane" and they may have been too busy to radio. The more the information comes in, the less I know, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manarak Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 It could be as simple as a decompression issue followed by a failure with the pilots oxygen system that led to the rapid onset on hypoxia. Tests have been done to show that hypoxia can set in at somewhere between 30 seconds & 2 minutes. I thought about this too. Yet don't the pilots have a backup system for oxygen, such as portable masks with their own small bottle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newatthis Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Found this interesting article online. Could be an explanation http://www.dw.de/gases-caused-near-disaster-on-german-plane/a-16274783 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawksway Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 On the face of it, the aircraft suffered a severe cabin de-compression at high altitude affording little or no possibility for the Crew to maintain control. Early reports also indicate that prior to take off, maintenance had been going to fix a defective nose wheel door which would not close properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeverSure Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 It could be as simple as a decompression issue followed by a failure with the pilots oxygen system that led to the rapid onset on hypoxia. Tests have been done to show that hypoxia can set in at somewhere between 30 seconds & 2 minutes. I thought about this too. Yet don't the pilots have a backup system for oxygen, such as portable masks with their own small bottle? They have masks and a common oxygen system. So do the passengers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manarak Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 (edited) Found this interesting article online. Could be an explanation http://www.dw.de/gases-caused-near-disaster-on-german-plane/a-16274783 Interesting indeed, especially if the oil vapors caught both pilots asleep It could also explain why a group of pilots refused to fly today, since improved air filters have been a request of the German pilot's association "Cockpit" which behaves as a trade union but sometimes has valid demands regarding safety. Edited March 25, 2015 by manarak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeverSure Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 On the face of it, the aircraft suffered a severe cabin de-compression at high altitude affording little or no possibility for the Crew to maintain control. Early reports also indicate that prior to take off, maintenance had been going to fix a defective nose wheel door which would not close properly. That's possible. One report said the plane appeared to be flown including reducing power for the descent which would be necessary to avoid overspeed. That report actually said that the plane slowed down in the descent from over 500 mph to 4XX mph. At the rate it was descending it seems the speed would have gone to the moon if power wasn't reduced. They might have redlined the airspeed indicator. I don't think there's a way to know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neverdie Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 It could be as simple as a decompression issue followed by a failure with the pilots oxygen system that led to the rapid onset on hypoxia. Tests have been done to show that hypoxia can set in at somewhere between 30 seconds & 2 minutes. I thought about this too. Yet don't the pilots have a backup system for oxygen, such as portable masks with their own small bottle? Indeed there is portable oxy, however one must first realise that one is being deprived by oxeygen and make the conscious decision to get up and get it. It may be the case that the oxygen worked briefly before failing or that they were busy with other issues and didn't notice . As I said a million and one things but perhaps a silly equipment failure could render the drivers useless in just a few short seconds.....maybe as little as 30. It's not uncommon for a pilot to spring out of his chair and takes leak immediately ipon reaching cruise levels as he might have been busy for a number of hours at that point where he was unable to have one depending on whether or not they drove it away on time, late, delays etc etc.....so maybe only one guy was peddaling when the emergency started. Sitting on the jon when the emergency started might have rendered one of them completely useless right from the go. Anyway, at this point there's no easy guess, however it wouldn't be the first time equipment has failed when called up.....and oxy might explain this strange descent . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manarak Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 (edited) On the face of it, the aircraft suffered a severe cabin de-compression at high altitude affording little or no possibility for the Crew to maintain control. Early reports also indicate that prior to take off, maintenance had been going to fix a defective nose wheel door which would not close properly. That's possible. One report said the plane appeared to be flown including reducing power for the descent which would be necessary to avoid overspeed. That report actually said that the plane slowed down in the descent from over 500 mph to 4XX mph. At the rate it was descending it seems the speed would have gone to the moon if power wasn't reduced. They might have redlined the airspeed indicator. I don't think there's a way to know yet. Speculation: - depressurization or oil vapor contamination - pilots initiate controlled dive for emergency landing - before they can do anything else: oxygen system failure or pilots too intoxicated to stay awake, pilots fall unconscious - plane carries on set course Edited March 25, 2015 by manarak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balo Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 (edited) We will understand what happened when we listen to the cockpit voice recorder. At least we can rule out a possible suicidal terrorist in the cockpit. Yes I also believe in the theory about oxygen failure. I still think that the pilots could have been unconscious already soon after the plane started descending from FL 380 which explains the lack of communication. Edited March 25, 2015 by balo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Let's stay on topic please. It is normal to speculate and to try and figure out what caused this (and any other tragedy). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neverdie Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Let's stay on topic please. It is normal to speculate and to try and figure out what caused this (and any other tragedy). Most concerning issue too Scott. What if there is some fault with the A320....something new or something that develops with age. Very concerning indeed as its one of the workhorses of the sky, thousands, tens of thousand of people fly on them every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibbler Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Did the planes engines run out of avgas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigermonkey Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Let's stay on topic please. It is normal to speculate and to try and figure out what caused this (and any other tragedy). Most concerning issue too Scott. What if there is some fault with the A320....something new or something that develops with age. Very concerning indeed as its one of the workhorses of the sky, thousands, tens of thousand of people fly on them every day. We'll still have to wait and see. I agree that our speculation, when coming from an informed background , is interesting, but in the end, it will be up to BEA and Airbus to sort this out - hopefully transparently. Interesting that you say "develops with age". D-AIPX was an old gal at 24 years and 3 months - she was the 147th A320 ever built, and had well in excess of 47,000 cycles ( take-offs/landings) against an expected life of 48,000 cycles. That said, LH/Germanwings take extremely good care of their aircraft, and they have several A320's which are older. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigermonkey Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Did the planes engines run out of avgas? The aircraft seemed to be under power ( albeit reduced) all the way from FL380 until it hit the mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barismanco Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 what bad news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Argus Tuft Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Did the planes engines run out of avgas? Doubtful, considering this aircraft type cannot fly on Avgas (among other indicators suggesting that it did not run out of fuel) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdenner Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 (edited) Off topic but I had to raise a smile at TW after she heard this tragic news. We have just completed a trip to my home taking 8 individual flights, she was concerned right from the planning stages being scared of flying. She came crawling into my study a few minutes ago thanking Budda and me for a safe holiday. As I said to her the scariest part of the trip was the 100 km night drive from the Udon Thani airport to our home in the village. Edited March 25, 2015 by bdenner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manarak Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 (edited) Here is something new: Pierre Polizzi, the owner of a campsite near where the plane crashed, said he heard the plane making strange noises shortly before it disappeared. “I heard a series of loud noises in the air. There are often fighter jets flying over, so I thought it sounded just like that. I looked outside, but I couldn’t see any fighter planes,” Polizzi told the Associated Press. “The noise I heard was long, like eight seconds, as if the plane was going more slowly than military plane speed. There was another long noise after about 30 seconds.” http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/24/germanwings-plane-black-box-found-as-investigators-reach-crash-site Edited March 25, 2015 by manarak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neverdie Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Let's stay on topic please. It is normal to speculate and to try and figure out what caused this (and any other tragedy). Most concerning issue too Scott. What if there is some fault with the A320....something new or something that develops with age. Very concerning indeed as its one of the workhorses of the sky, thousands, tens of thousand of people fly on them every day. We'll still have to wait and see. I agree that our speculation, when coming from an informed background , is interesting, but in the end, it will be up to BEA and Airbus to sort this out - hopefully transparently.Interesting that you say "develops with age". D-AIPX was an old gal at 24 years and 3 months - she was the 147th A320 ever built, and had well in excess of 47,000 cycles ( take-offs/landings) against an expected life of 48,000 cycles. That said, LH/Germanwings take extremely good care of their aircraft, and they have several A320's which are older. may be a very important factor.....may not be but it always catches my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeOboe57 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Anonymous quote on the aviation herald website, I quote from http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/558654-airbus-a320-crashed-southern-france-26.html CVR data has been read. It seems structural failure (windshield? not determined yet)..It was quick... sound of cracks,but crew initiated emergency descent by autopilot and then they weren't heard anymore. Autopilot was on during whole descent, but disconnected automatically shortly before impact when GPWS alerts appeared. As an anonymous quote it should be treated with caution, but the scenario makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manarak Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Anonymous quote on the aviation herald website, I quote from http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/558654-airbus-a320-crashed-southern-france-26.html CVR data has been read. It seems structural failure (windshield? not determined yet)..It was quick... sound of cracks,but crew initiated emergency descent by autopilot and then they weren't heard anymore. Autopilot was on during whole descent, but disconnected automatically shortly before impact when GPWS alerts appeared. As an anonymous quote it should be treated with caution, but the scenario makes sense. I wonder if the pilots were still inside the plane when it crashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balo Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Anonymous quote on the aviation herald website, I quote from http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/558654-airbus-a320-crashed-southern-france-26.html CVR data has been read. It seems structural failure (windshield? not determined yet)..It was quick... sound of cracks,but crew initiated emergency descent by autopilot and then they weren't heard anymore. Autopilot was on during whole descent, but disconnected automatically shortly before impact when GPWS alerts appeared. As an anonymous quote it should be treated with caution, but the scenario makes sense. I wonder if the pilots were still inside the plane when it crashed. I'm thinking the same thing, if it was a structural failure in the cockpit all they had time for was to turn on the auopilot before they were sucked out of the plane. Maybe only the cockpit was damaged so the passengers would have been alive during the 8 minute descent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manarak Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Anonymous quote on the aviation herald website, I quote from http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/558654-airbus-a320-crashed-southern-france-26.html CVR data has been read. It seems structural failure (windshield? not determined yet)..It was quick... sound of cracks,but crew initiated emergency descent by autopilot and then they weren't heard anymore. Autopilot was on during whole descent, but disconnected automatically shortly before impact when GPWS alerts appeared. As an anonymous quote it should be treated with caution, but the scenario makes sense. I wonder if the pilots were still inside the plane when it crashed. I'm thinking the same thing, if it was a structural failure in the cockpit all they had time for was to turn on the auopilot before they were sucked out of the plane. Maybe only the cockpit was damaged so the passengers would have been alive during the 8 minute descent. yes - can any pilot here tell if pilots are required to keep their seatbelts on and if said seatbelts are designed to prevent someone from being sucked out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manarak Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Anonymous quote on the aviation herald website, I quote from http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/558654-airbus-a320-crashed-southern-france-26.html CVR data has been read. It seems structural failure (windshield? not determined yet)..It was quick... sound of cracks,but crew initiated emergency descent by autopilot and then they weren't heard anymore. Autopilot was on during whole descent, but disconnected automatically shortly before impact when GPWS alerts appeared. As an anonymous quote it should be treated with caution, but the scenario makes sense. I wonder if the pilots were still inside the plane when it crashed. I'm thinking the same thing, if it was a structural failure in the cockpit all they had time for was to turn on the auopilot before they were sucked out of the plane. Maybe only the cockpit was damaged so the passengers would have been alive during the 8 minute descent. horrible thought about the passengers being conscious of their imminent demise :-( Okay, another thought I had was that if the windshield or another cockpit structure broke and one pilot had the time to set a descent with the autopilot, this probably also means that he had time to do something else, and the sequence of events didn't lead to one or both pilots being safely strapped in their seats and being able to act. My next thought is that even without oxygen, a pilot should have at least one minute of time to get some things done ? What if one pilot got sucked halfway out of the window and the other quickly set a descent and then got up to rescue his colleague but then both got sucked out ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicog Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Anonymous quote on the aviation herald website, I quote from http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/558654-airbus-a320-crashed-southern-france-26.html CVR data has been read. It seems structural failure (windshield? not determined yet)..It was quick... sound of cracks,but crew initiated emergency descent by autopilot and then they weren't heard anymore. Autopilot was on during whole descent, but disconnected automatically shortly before impact when GPWS alerts appeared. As an anonymous quote it should be treated with caution, but the scenario makes sense. As an anonymous quote quoting a Finnish newspaper quoting the Finnish CAA, I think it should be treated rather less seriously than "cautiously". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicog Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 I'm thinking the same thing, if it was a structural failure in the cockpit all they had time for was to turn on the auopilot before they were sucked out of the plane. Maybe only the cockpit was damaged so the passengers would have been alive during the 8 minute descent. I think your imagination is working overtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neverdie Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Anonymous quote on the aviation herald website, I quote from http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/558654-airbus-a320-crashed-southern-france-26.html CVR data has been read. It seems structural failure (windshield? not determined yet)..It was quick... sound of cracks,but crew initiated emergency descent by autopilot and then they weren't heard anymore. Autopilot was on during whole descent, but disconnected automatically shortly before impact when GPWS alerts appeared. As an anonymous quote it should be treated with caution, but the scenario makes sense. I wonder if the pilots were still inside the plane when it crashed. I'm thinking the same thing, if it was a structural failure in the cockpit all they had time for was to turn on the auopilot before they were sucked out of the plane. Maybe only the cockpit was damaged so the passengers would have been alive during the 8 minute descent. yes - can any pilot here tell if pilots are required to keep their seatbelts on and if said seatbelts are designed to prevent someone from being sucked out? At the stage of reaching level flight, it would be commonplace to make ones self more comfortable by loosening and even removing the upper most part of the pilots seat harness.....it's not just a lap constraint.It would be unreasonable to expect them to stay firmly strapped in throughout the entire flight.Pilots refasten their complete harnesses at certain times, as per t/o, landing, encounter turbulence or unusual situations.An aircraft with many cycles is more susceptible to fatigue issues, even a plane with lower hours but high amount of cycles.If this is what happened, it's indeed really tragic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neverdie Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 I'm thinking the same thing, if it was a structural failure in the cockpit all they had time for was to turn on the auopilot before they were sucked out of the plane. Maybe only the cockpit was damaged so the passengers would have been alive during the 8 minute descent. I think your imagination is working overtime. There was a case where a windscreen went (BA from memory) & the captain was sucked out.....his feet got caught in the controls and cabin crew held onto his legs while the F.O.Mlanded the aircraft. The captain lived too. Sudden decompression can be extremely violent and can cause substantial structual damage to the airframe.....it can cripple the plane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicog Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 I'm thinking the same thing, if it was a structural failure in the cockpit all they had time for was to turn on the auopilot before they were sucked out of the plane. Maybe only the cockpit was damaged so the passengers would have been alive during the 8 minute descent. I think your imagination is working overtime. There was a case where a windscreen went (BA from memory) & the captain was sucked out.....his feet got caught in the controls and cabin crew held onto his legs while the F.O.Mlanded the aircraft. The captain lived too. Sudden decompression can be extremely violent and can cause substantial structual damage to the airframe.....it can cripple the plane. That was down to a maintenance error, not structural failure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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