Export revenue drops 5% in May

[Lite Beer]

Export revenue drops 5% in May

BANGKOK: -- Thailand’s export revenue declined for the fifth consecutive month in May by 5.01% to US$18,429 million, the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy's secretary general Mr Somkiat Trairatpan said.

He said the fall since January this year puts the country’s export revenue in five months to US$88,694 million, a 4.2% shrink.

But he said this is a similar trend developed in various countries including Australia, France, Japan and the U.S. due to the uncertainty of global economy.

Factors causing the decline were attributed to ongoing low oil price which fell 39.7% in May, resulting in lower earnings from oil-related products, drop in sale of agricultural and agro industrial products such as canned tuna, sugar, and rubber which dropped 14.4%.

However he said import value in the month decreased by 19.97% to US$16,012 million.

But despite the gloomy global economy, the export growth target will be maintained at 1.2% while the drought disaster would possibly dampen Thai exports next year due to lower farm l produce throughout the year.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/export-revenue-drops-5-in-may

-- Thai PBS 2015-06-27

[Srikcir]

Just to recap the conclusion of a recent article on the Thai economy, Thailand's economic engine sputtering as global storm approaches (The Nation 2015-06-19) :

"Brace for more tough times in the second half of this year, when the effect of the recent drought on Thai farmers begins to spread. There is only one way to go forward - by muddling through."

Muddling the economy has been the Junta's best accomplishment.

I expect to see further pressure on the baht to depreciate beyond Bt35 to 1 USD and the Junta to delay several of its foreign financed infrastructure projects.

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

Just to recap the conclusion of a recent article on the Thai economy, Thailand's economic engine sputtering as global storm approaches (The Nation 2015-06-19)[/size] :

"Brace for more tough times in the second half of this year, when the effect of the recent drought on Thai farmers begins to spread. There is only one way to go forward - by muddling through."[/size]

Muddling the economy has been the Junta's best accomplishment.[/size]

I expect to see further pressure on the baht to depreciate beyond Bt35 to 1 USD and the Junta to delay several of its foreign financed infrastructure projects.[/size]

I think you are missing some of the pieces. The drought are projected to continue into 2016, which will bring the farmers to or past breaking point. We are seeing a collapse of the exports, which could only be a start as the world economy slows down further. We are in a deflation phase which will soon turn into a high inflation phase (as the drought push up food prices). We already have big companies starting to express concern about business. The Thai households are heavily indebted and NPL are increasing. Unemployment are increasing. FDI's are down from pre-coup levels. We are facing a seafood ban and flight bans. You should look at a USD/Baht at B 40 to B 50 next year this time.

[tonytigerbkk]

Of course exports have dropped, especially in Europe.

Europe no longer accepts the Form A/Certificate of Origin from Thai exports, so the importer does not get tax relief on the goods.

On top of that many Thai companies had to adjust their prices to counter the damage caused by the effect of the minimum wage increase.

It is now cheaper to buy the equivalent product from manufacturers based in Europe or if importers are willing to take the chance, the copy version from China, Vietnam, Turkey, etc.

I'm sure that Ms. Wilaiwan (president of the Thai Labour Reconciliation Committee) will feel good when she forces through another the minmum wage rise, pushing Thailand further out of the Export Race and as such closing down more companies and putting more Thais out of work.

Edited June 27, 2015 by tonytigerbkk

[NeverSure]

I agree with Tony. ^^^ The rest here are my own thoughts.

The EU has restricted and the US is actually setting records for $ imports, including from Thailand. Thailand's biggest error lately is hitching its wagon to the wrong horses. China is going into recession as are some other countries. China also doesn't normally import expensive consumer goods but rather imports food and energy. China has the world's largest population, but the income per capita for the people is 1/2 what it is in Thailand and 1/10th of what it is in the West. The general makes noises about China but China can't support its own people well let alone the Thais.

Someone who spent his life in the army has no clue how to run an economy. He also has no clue how to manage people because in the military he was a dictator. Oh wait...

This is like watching a slow motion train wreck.

[mango66]

Just to recap the conclusion of a recent article on the Thai economy, Thailand's economic engine sputtering as global storm approaches (The Nation 2015-06-19) :

"Brace for more tough times in the second half of this year, when the effect of the recent drought on Thai farmers begins to spread. There is only one way to go forward - by muddling through."

Muddling the economy has been the Junta's best accomplishment.

I expect to see further pressure on the baht to depreciate beyond Bt35 to 1 USD and the Junta to delay several of its foreign financed infrastructure projects.

Thats why all Thais hope TS will be back soon,

Export will get a dramatically jump by G2G rice exports to China and Dubay,

Montenegro and Colombia have also shown interess of a G2G rice deal !

[konying]

Do not panic, next week there will be another release that exports are rebounding.

PS, Not much press coverage about people being let off all over the country

[topt]

I agree with Tony. ^^^ The rest here are my own thoughts.

The EU has restricted and the US is actually setting records for $ imports, including from Thailand. Thailand's biggest error lately is hitching its wagon to the wrong horses. China is going into recession as are some other countries. China also doesn't normally import expensive consumer goods but rather imports food and energy. China has the world's largest population, but the income per capita for the people is 1/2 what it is in Thailand and 1/10th of what it is in the West. The general makes noises about China but China can't support its own people well let alone the Thais.

Someone who spent his life in the army has no clue how to run an economy. He also has no clue how to manage people because in the military he was a dictator. Oh wait...

This is like watching a slow motion train wreck.

You may want to rethink - "China also doesn't normally import expensive consumer goods........"

http://www.economist.com/news/business/21579015-life-getting-harder-purveyors-luxury-china-growth-prospects-are-still and more recently

http://luxurysociety.com/articles/2014/10/what-is-really-happening-in-chinas-luxury-market

However not really that relevant to the subject matter either..........

[NeverSure]

I agree with Tony. ^^^ The rest here are my own thoughts.

The EU has restricted and the US is actually setting records for $ imports, including from Thailand. Thailand's biggest error lately is hitching its wagon to the wrong horses. China is going into recession as are some other countries. China also doesn't normally import expensive consumer goods but rather imports food and energy. China has the world's largest population, but the income per capita for the people is 1/2 what it is in Thailand and 1/10th of what it is in the West. The general makes noises about China but China can't support its own people well let alone the Thais.

Someone who spent his life in the army has no clue how to run an economy. He also has no clue how to manage people because in the military he was a dictator. Oh wait...

This is like watching a slow motion train wreck.

You may want to rethink - "China also doesn't normally import expensive consumer goods........"

http://www.economist.com/news/business/21579015-life-getting-harder-purveyors-luxury-china-growth-prospects-are-still and more recently

http://luxurysociety.com/articles/2014/10/what-is-really-happening-in-chinas-luxury-market

However not really that relevant to the subject matter either..........

I think we're on topic. China is a major market for Thai exports. I stand by what I said. China is a very poor county by even Thai standards per capita, and most of what it imports are basic materials, food, energy. Remember, China's goal has been to be a manufacturer, not an importer of manufactured goods.

Your links are to things that are for the privileged few and don't impact total imports enough to show up on charts. The list below shows that China's big import money mostly goes to energy, food, and raw materials.

Here's a shot of a chart of China's imports by item, by dollar amount imported. Thailand would have to ring the bell on some of these items to get dollar amount increases in total exports. Link

Cheers.

Edited June 27, 2015 by NeverSure

[Cake Monster]

The Junta have really proved themselves as Commodity Traders, selling Rubber to the Chinese at a 14.4% reduction in price.

Anybody can run a business at a loss, thats so easy to do. But to make money takes a certain flair.

[Misty]

For over a decade the Thai economy benefited from external factors in the form of a rising Chinese economy and low global interest rates. Although TS took credit for Thai economic growth, the reality is the main domestic item contributing to Thai growth was really rising consumer debt levels inside Thailand - the rest was external factors.

Now Thai consumer debt levels are at a relatively high level and probably can't be extended much further, USD interest rates are likely to rise (affecting several Asian money markets) and the Chinese economy appears to be slowing/weakening. These factors just can't be overcome by domestic policies - neither TS nor anyone else can change them. Other Asian economies are experiencing the same dynamics. Blaming this on the junta seems misplaced.

[kaorop]

How does and why does the baht continue to hold so strong?

When the AUD drops to the value of a drachma when ever someone in China coughs !

[topt]

I agree with Tony. ^^^ The rest here are my own thoughts.

The EU has restricted and the US is actually setting records for $ imports, including from Thailand. Thailand's biggest error lately is hitching its wagon to the wrong horses. China is going into recession as are some other countries. China also doesn't normally import expensive consumer goods but rather imports food and energy. China has the world's largest population, but the income per capita for the people is 1/2 what it is in Thailand and 1/10th of what it is in the West. The general makes noises about China but China can't support its own people well let alone the Thais.

Someone who spent his life in the army has no clue how to run an economy. He also has no clue how to manage people because in the military he was a dictator. Oh wait...

This is like watching a slow motion train wreck.

You may want to rethink - "China also doesn't normally import expensive consumer goods........"

http://www.economist.com/news/business/21579015-life-getting-harder-purveyors-luxury-china-growth-prospects-are-still and more recently

http://luxurysociety.com/articles/2014/10/what-is-really-happening-in-chinas-luxury-market

However not really that relevant to the subject matter either..........

I think we're on topic. China is a major market for Thai exports. I stand by what I said. China is a very poor county by even Thai standards per capita, and most of what it imports are basic materials, food, energy. Remember, China's goal has been to be a manufacturer, not an importer of manufactured goods.

Your links are to things that are for the privileged few and don't impact total imports enough to show up on charts. The list below shows that China's big import money mostly goes to energy, food, and raw materials.

Here's a shot of a chart of China's imports by item, by dollar amount imported. Thailand would have to ring the bell on some of these items to get dollar amount increases in total exports. Link

Cheers.

Unticopy.jpg

NS I don't disagree with your overall view but I was merely being perhaps pedantic about one comment. I think your chart actually proves that. Number 4 and 5 on the list are not everyday staples. China has a huge domestic car manufacturing business but still imports a lot of cars - and they ain't from Thailand! Also being pedantic the privileged few are (due to China's overall size) becoming more and more numerous which is why as luxury markets go China for many has been the driver of growth.

The reason why I said I thought maybe not relevant is that Thailand hasn't really got any luxury products to export anyhow

[NeverSure]

I think we're on topic. China is a major market for Thai exports. I stand by what I said. China is a very poor county by even Thai standards per capita, and most of what it imports are basic materials, food, energy. Remember, China's goal has been to be a manufacturer, not an importer of manufactured goods.

Your links are to things that are for the privileged few and don't impact total imports enough to show up on charts. The list below shows that China's big import money mostly goes to energy, food, and raw materials.

Here's a shot of a chart of China's imports by item, by dollar amount imported. Thailand would have to ring the bell on some of these items to get dollar amount increases in total exports. Link

Cheers.

Unticopy.jpg

NS I don't disagree with your overall view but I was merely being perhaps pedantic about one comment. I think your chart actually proves that. Number 4 and 5 on the list are not everyday staples. China has a huge domestic car manufacturing business but still imports a lot of cars - and they ain't from Thailand! Also being pedantic the privileged few are (due to China's overall size) becoming more and more numerous which is why as luxury markets go China for many has been the driver of growth.

The reason why I said I thought maybe not relevant is that Thailand hasn't really got any luxury products to export anyhow

OK, let's agree to disagree. The topic is Thai exports and I take the position that Thailand has focused too much on China when China isn't a likely buyer for many $ of Thai exports.

Cars and gold are a tiny percent of China's imports compared to energy and manufacturing materials. Thailand doesn't have much to sell that China buys and certainly not enough to increase its exports much.

Cheers

[sandmonster]

I agree with Tony. ^^^ The rest here are my own thoughts.

The EU has restricted and the US is actually setting records for $ imports, including from Thailand. Thailand's biggest error lately is hitching its wagon to the wrong horses. China is going into recession as are some other countries. China also doesn't normally import expensive consumer goods but rather imports food and energy. China has the world's largest population, but the income per capita for the people is 1/2 what it is in Thailand and 1/10th of what it is in the West. The general makes noises about China but China can't support its own people well let alone the Thais.

Someone who spent his life in the army has no clue how to run an economy. He also has no clue how to manage people because in the military he was a dictator. Oh wait...

This is like watching a slow motion train wreck.

income per capita in China really that low ? I think you are you talking 15 years ago.... You didn't do your research. Even a quick wiki shows China has moved on.1/2 Thai , 1/10th world. lol