Baht unlikely to slide below 35/$

[DeepInTheForest]

I have no expertise in these matters, but according to a post linked to below, the fall in the value of the baht may be to Thailand's advantage, and this may be the result of policy. In fact, because of the sliding Japanese yen, other SE Asian countries, including the Malaysia and Indonesia, have been put into a position where they must allow their currencies to slide in order to prop up exports. Until the yen recovers and household demand increases in Japan, the claim is that the central banks of these countries will likely attempt to keep the ringgit and rupiah relatively weak so as to remain competitive. They will also probably remain relatively weak compared to the pound and dollar. Thailand has little option other than to play a similar game.

The dollar's recent strength of course may be due not only to an improving economy but also to its position as a safe harbor during the euro crisis.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world-news/falling-yen-raises-spectrecurrency-warasia_1403989.html

Have no idea whether this is indeed the case, but it does provide a reasonable explanation for the recent sudden baht slide.

[Time Traveller]

I always believed that the gold price was set by the world market. Interesting it has gone down 3.2% in Thailand, and 4.5% everywhere else. Would this not be called "price-fixing"? Why would you buy gold here, if it is above the market in the rest of the world?

The difference is because they are comparing the change of gold in THB terms with the change in gold in USD terms.

You gold bugs never let up with you price manipulation conspiracy theories, do you?

[Time Traveller]

We all knock Thailand occasionally, but just think of how many governments around the "civilized" world that would kill to have a current account surplus. That is something they have right .... live within your means.

There's been specualtion that the Chinese may devalue to RMB to prevent capital flight and grow their exports. If that happens then THB won't stop at 35. It'll be trading at 40+, regardless of their capital account surplus.

Thailand's economy does have much higher risks than what the thai officials publicly admit, as the country is effectively competeting with China in trade and also relying on China as a customer.

[Doc46]

I always believed that the gold price was set by the world market. Interesting it has gone down 3.2% in Thailand, and 4.5% everywhere else. Would this not be called "price-fixing"? Why would you buy gold here, if it is above the market in the rest of the world?

gold in Thailand is sold at exactly the world market price (see below) with the advantage that bid/ask (buy/sell) difference is lower in Thailand.

some people arrive at wrong assumptions, respectively calculations because they compare apples with oranges by not taking the different currencies in which gold is quoted into consideration.

example:

-the selling price of 1 Baht weight is today THB 18,200

-world market price of gold per Troy ounce USD 1,099.50

-one Troy ounce of gold is the equivalent of ~2.0438 Baht weights

-the mid exchange rate US-Dollar/Thai Baht today is 34.89

18200 : 34.89 = $521.64 x 2.0438 = $1,066.12 x 1.0363 (Thai gold purity only 96.5%) = $1,105 minus goldshop margin = $1,099.50 = difference zero!

this lesson is free of charge although i have wasted at least 5 minutes of my precious time.

If you don't want to wast your precious time ,why post?

[pokerface1]

The Aussie continued it's downward trend against the Baht however I expect a reversal from 25.2 up to 26.3 in the short term

[dabhand]

I'm happy to see the baht slide , the further the better . When I first came it was 70baht to the pound stirling , but every little counts .

When I first came over it was 35 to the pound Stirling, only went up after the Asian crash.

Exactly. Many people don't realise this or have forgotten.

It was virtually fixed at 25 to the USD which made it around 35 to the Pound.

Looking historically at other Asian currencies it should probably be around 38-39 to the USD right now.

I recall the rate to the Pound dropping to around 28 towards the end of 1984. That was when the $/£ rate neared parity. Think 1.07 was the lowest around that time. But still didn't put me off travelling to Thailand

So, in comparison, current rates are reasonable but I can still wish for a return to the heady rates of 1997!

[Scouse123]

Yea and when the pound that you remember was 28, how much was a beer or a hotel room? A limousine taxi etc etc

[rayw]

This makes me laugh "....(name any financial market)...... is expected to .....(fill in the blank).... because of......(fill in the blank)".

The future direction of any financial market is completely unknowable. Everything someone can list as a possible reason why something "should" happen, is already known by the market and is already "priced in" resulting in the current price. There are billions of $, Baht whatever being traded by people whose business it is to trade currency markets. These are serious people. If they thought for one second that the current price was in some way "wrong" or that others had failed to consider a certain key piece of information or data, they would place their bets and rake in a fortune when they were proved right.

The current price is there as a result of all the people who have already placed their bets on the direction based on all known data / information / forecasts.

The only thing that will move markets one way or the other is if new news or data becomes available which differs significantly from what was expected. This data / information is by it's very definition "unknown", hence the future direction is also unknown.

But these economists will know: if you forecast the direction as "up" or "down", which ever they choose there is about a 50-50 chance of being correct. Then they can heap praise on their own shoulders for being so clever!!

Flip a coin, you have about as much chance of being right.

And there is the big problem and reason the Capitalist system in the 21st century is now deeply flawed.

It is all one betting shop and countries economies are "played" with by selfish and low life gamblers. Exchange rates in the old days of more true economies were almost exclusively effected, as they very much should be, by a country's balance of payments for goods and services in and out, not by low life a'hole speculators trying to make a quick free buck on the backs of the poor folk in the economies they falsely effect and often ruin. This world is currently totally crazy and grossly unfair to the the 99% of folk who are ordinary decent people simply trying to earn an honest living and have a happy and comfortable rewarding life but all of that is being ruined by the fat cat selfish pond life whom Governments allow to get away with it !!!!!!!!!!

Silly fraudulent manipulations by very corrupt and evil Governments like Washington and much of Europe too, who are a major part and main cause in fact of the problem. Falsely making the what should be a very weak US dollar stronger by fraud and deceit, and gold weaker (which is very strange as physical gold is highly in demand that exceeds supply!!), manipulating oil prices to help demonise Russia in punishment for them being independent and refusing to bow down to the hegemonic US domination as most World wide vassal states are having to do these days.

NOW before anyone starts the stupid jumping on me as usual on this point, I will say now that I am NOT being anti American as I have many US based friends and generally love most US folk and the beautiful country, though some are sadly it seems a bit apathetic and lacking in real knowledge of the truth. However I am really very much currently very anti the corrupt and simply evil corporate run Washington and indeed anti UK Government too for similar reasons as they are very much a US vassal nation now. There lies the problem that affects us all and time we all did something to rid ourselves of this blight on society IMHO.

Almost ALL of us here are ordinary decent folk and we are being totally stitched up by corrupt Western Governments and fat cat corporations that are controlling us and still too many of us seem unable to see the truth in that. This we must stop and get back to normality if it is at all possible. Unfortunately we are still being brainwashed and mislead by the Washington controlled Western media.

All just my honest two pence worth and I am not up to any debate on it as I am happy that it is all the truth and many or even most open minded ordinary decent folk can now see that too and agree !! So silly flamers who are unable to hold a serious sensible debate will as usual be ignored as they always should be.

[elgordo38]

Nice for it to be where it belong, same as 7/8 years ago. 43-45 US/64-66 GBP to the baht

They are forever the optimist here (Day to day living demands that) but then I can be pessimistic at times. I think we will see 40 by the end of the year (You can take that to the bank). Thailand is not an island unto itself in the middle of a Sh-storm as much as they would like to think so. I see a lot of negatives here (pessimist again damn) military government till 2017 and beyond plus they are slow out of the gate to enact spending. Spending is earmarked for the wrong things like subs (Oops sorry this is on hold till things die down then they will they slip the funds out the back door) A continued drought (manufacturing and tourism requires a lot of water) highfalutin ideas like railways to China (only benefits China) double track em, high consumer debt low wages (but high according to the surrounding countries) but low wages for the bright eyed and bushy tailed young people coming out of the halls of higher learning. I can see electricity becoming a problem in the future its in the news now, tourism could drop if the world keeps sliding downward. Its the first thing people strike off of their bucketlist when they must tighten their belt. On the manufacturing front demand will dry up for new vehicles again a belt tightening feature. Throw in some wild cards like civil unrest, increase in crime although this could be a universal problem around the globe. I am sure you can think of many others that will upset the rosy apple cart painted in the thread statement.

Edited July 25, 2015 by elgordo38

[Jiggo]

If the baht was in the region of 60 to the £ I would be happy when I first came over it was 74 to the £ and my living standard was really good over time it got as low as 43 to the £ and I did contemplate going back to the UK as my retirement income for my extension of stay was very borderline. In my humble opinion I feel that Government has propped up the baht what country in the world who is taken over by a coup and has many domestic and financial issues shows a continuos strong currency as the baht has shown I believe that before long it will hit 60 to the £ .......... ,!!

Doesn’t worry the Thais, they will just increase their prices due to farangs having more cash, to part with, as they did in the past....

[pokerface1]

[mayview]

I always believed that the gold price was set by the world market. Interesting it has gone down 3.2% in Thailand, and 4.5% everywhere else. Would this not be called "price-fixing"? Why would you buy gold here, if it is above the market in the rest of the world?

gold in Thailand is sold at exactly the world market price (see below) with the advantage that bid/ask (buy/sell) difference is lower in Thailand.

some people arrive at wrong assumptions, respectively calculations because they compare apples with oranges by not taking the different currencies in which gold is quoted into consideration.

example:

-the selling price of 1 Baht weight is today THB 18,200

-world market price of gold per Troy ounce USD 1,099.50

-one Troy ounce of gold is the equivalent of ~2.0438 Baht weights

-the mid exchange rate US-Dollar/Thai Baht today is 34.89

18200 : 34.89 = $521.64 x 2.0438 = $1,066.12 x 1.0363 (Thai gold purity only 96.5%) = $1,105 minus goldshop margin = $1,099.50 = difference zero!

this lesson is free of charge although i have wasted at least 5 minutes of my precious time.

Not wasted. I definitely learnt. Thank you!

Edited July 25, 2015 by mayview

[mommysboy]

We all knock Thailand occasionally, but just think of how many governments around the "civilized" world that would kill to have a current account surplus. That is something they have right .... live within your means.

Governments would..... but not at the expense of consigning the economy to the rubbish heap.

[IMA_FARANG]

The £ is doing well vs the Baht because the UK are talking of raising interest rates.

The Baht is weaker because of doubts over the Thai economy.

The $:B is also influenced by other factors

An interest rise in the UK will happen towards the end of this year or early next and talk of this is creating a stronger pound.

I personally believe it has a little further to go from its present 53.5 but don't hold me to it.

-------------------------

And the Fed will be raising interest rates in the U.S. by the end of this year or at the very least in Early 2016.

So how is that going to affect the Dollar and it's exchange rate against the Baht?

I would guess the Dollar will still go up some against the Baht.......maybe to 36 Baht for a Dollar?

But I agree, that's just a guess.

[timendres]

We all knock Thailand occasionally, but just think of how many governments around the "civilized" world that would kill to have a current account surplus. That is something they have right .... live within your means.

You only have a SURPLUS here by moving DEBT off the books to BONDS or shift the debt to long term so it is removed from this fiscal session or make the BOND as an asset because you SELL a bond. Something like that is going on big time here in Thailand. All you have to do is read. It is just move the dots. Kiddies stuff to fool the people and make the next mob accountable.

But not an entirely unreasonable thing to do at a time when interest rates are at historical lows.

[timendres]

Market forces always decide the strength or weakness of a currency. The USA are now faced with the problem of expensive exports which will weigh heavily on the USD both economic and currency wise.

Thailand is in a very weak spot at the moment with declining exports, falling tourism,weak demand and a military government in disarray that is making a total hash of the economy and shows no signs of stepping down for the foreseeable future.There is also a lack of projects and investment within the country.

Through its own arrogance Thailand has severely damaged it's tourist sector believing the Chinese sector will always come to the rescue, China who is doctoring its own trade figures, the government interfering directly in its own stock market and declining growth home and abroad.

Thailand,In the eyes of investors such as Japan, credibility is damaged severely and has stretched the patience of one of its biggest investors.

I believe, unless there is a dramatic turnaround, the baht has further to slide.The Thai baht's strength previously was caused not by the strengthening economic factors of their economy but by the weakness of others,particularly the West.

The USA and UK economies are strengthening due to the improving economies of both countries with the UK being Europe's best performer in terms of growth, ( pitiful as it is ) low unemployment by comparison to its neighbors and no Euro.exposure or involvement.

Turing to Gold, some analysts are predicting $800-$900 by the end of 2016.How can you possibly make these assumptions in the very uncertain world we live in? These are the same people who fall silent for months on end with no explanation whatsoever when Gold rallies.

Gold rallies and gets strong in times of uncertainty. If Gold were to fall to these levels as quoted by the analysts, they will mothball the mines and await price recovery. Smaller mines would close and the bigger players will sit on the sidelines.Gold has been manipulated by the USA for years, based on a recent audit, China has bought less than what was thought, Well, if they did an audit on the USA, they probably have a lot less than they say!

Has the ISIS threat, Greece,Iraq, Libya, Iran or Ukraine crises all evaporated? Has the world suddenly become a lot safer? Is the world economy right back on track?

I don't believe the " other shoe " has actually dropped yet in the world's economic downturn. They always say, you can't spend your way out of a recession, With all the unparalleled QE both in the US and Europe, that's what they have tried to do and it is untested waters.

Indeed! Toss in the aging demographics around the world, combined with already suffocating debt loads and impossible social funding promises, and the path looks rough ahead.

[pattayasnowman]

We will see what happens when the US/Baht reaches 36.00 the 2009 highs

With the current momentum this is likely within the next 2 months

[timendres]

I have no expertise in these matters, but according to a post linked to below, the fall in the value of the baht may be to Thailand's advantage, and this may be the result of policy. In fact, because of the sliding Japanese yen, other SE Asian countries, including the Malaysia and Indonesia, have been put into a position where they must allow their currencies to slide in order to prop up exports. Until the yen recovers and household demand increases in Japan, the claim is that the central banks of these countries will likely attempt to keep the ringgit and rupiah relatively weak so as to remain competitive. They will also probably remain relatively weak compared to the pound and dollar. Thailand has little option other than to play a similar game.

The dollar's recent strength of course may be due not only to an improving economy but also to its position as a safe harbor during the euro crisis.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world-news/falling-yen-raises-spectrecurrency-warasia_1403989.html

Have no idea whether this is indeed the case, but it does provide a reasonable explanation for the recent sudden baht slide.

What you are describing, "Currency Wars", has been predicted for some time, based upon the poor management by most central banks and bad policy by most governments. It is likely to continue, and accelerate the coming crisis in fiat currencies and central banks.

[timendres]

The Aussie continued it's downward trend against the Baht however I expect a reversal from 25.2 up to 26.3 in the short term

Wow. Pretty colors, Fibonacci ranges, and a curvy target line. Who could possibly doubt your prediction?

[pattayasnowman]

the baht is ONLY WEAK against the US$$$ no other currency.

Not So see Chart of GBP/THB The Pound will be at its June 2014 highs shortly with the current momentum

[chiang mai]

The Aussie continued it's downward trend against the Baht however I expect a reversal from 25.2 up to 26.3 in the short term

Wow. Pretty colors, Fibonacci ranges, and a curvy target line. Who could possibly doubt your prediction?

And overlayed narrative in bubble boxes, neat, it has to be correct!

[cookee68]

I'm happy to see the baht slide , the further the better . When I first came it was 70baht to the pound stirling , but every little counts .

When I first came over it was 35 to the pound Stirling, only went up after the Asian crash.

That must have been in the 60s or 70s

[cookee68]

You slide down not up.

Rubbish.

Give me an example of something that slides up

my penis on a good day,

[dao16]

is there someway to trade currencies and make a profit for living expenses from a no fee site like maybe xe.com? I'm not sure what the mathematical equations are that might be useful in currency predictions

I knew a guy who made his entire living from trading currencies online, and he lived in a major European city (so, quite expensive). He lived a middle class life--he did ok, but he wasn't rolling in money or anything. He also spent a lot of time reading the news and analyzing graphs and whatnot. Didn't really appeal to me to try, but he liked it.

So, it can be done, but I am sure the learning curve is pretty steep.

[nev]

is there someway to trade currencies and make a profit for living expenses from a no fee site like maybe xe.com? I'm not sure what the mathematical equations are that might be useful in currency predictions

I knew a guy who made his entire living from trading currencies online, and he lived in a major European city (so, quite expensive). He lived a middle class life--he did ok, but he wasn't rolling in money or anything. He also spent a lot of time reading the news and analyzing graphs and whatnot. Didn't really appeal to me to try, but he liked it.

So, it can be done, but I am sure the learning curve is pretty steep.

Met someone in Sydney who did this, said it was all about counting pips.

[Naam]

I'm happy to see the baht slide , the further the better . When I first came it was 70baht to the pound stirling , but every little counts .

When I first came over it was 35 to the pound Stirling, only went up after the Asian crash.

That must have been in the 60s or 70s

nope! that was even in the 90s till the crash 97.

[Naam]

I always believed that the gold price was set by the world market. Interesting it has gone down 3.2% in Thailand, and 4.5% everywhere else. Would this not be called "price-fixing"? Why would you buy gold here, if it is above the market in the rest of the world?

gold in Thailand is sold at exactly the world market price (see below) with the advantage that bid/ask (buy/sell) difference is lower in Thailand.

some people arrive at wrong assumptions, respectively calculations because they compare apples with oranges by not taking the different currencies in which gold is quoted into consideration.

example:

-the selling price of 1 Baht weight is today THB 18,200

-world market price of gold per Troy ounce USD 1,099.50

-one Troy ounce of gold is the equivalent of ~2.0438 Baht weights

-the mid exchange rate US-Dollar/Thai Baht today is 34.89

18200 : 34.89 = $521.64 x 2.0438 = $1,066.12 x 1.0363 (Thai gold purity only 96.5%) = $1,105 minus goldshop margin = $1,099.50 = difference zero!

this lesson is free of charge although i have wasted at least 5 minutes of my precious time.

Sorry you feel that you wasted your time. Very good explanation and lesson learned. Thanks for the response. Hope you feel better now.....

i feel actually good when i'm able to render some advice

[Naam]

I always believed that the gold price was set by the world market. Interesting it has gone down 3.2% in Thailand, and 4.5% everywhere else. Would this not be called "price-fixing"? Why would you buy gold here, if it is above the market in the rest of the world?

gold in Thailand is sold at exactly the world market price (see below) with the advantage that bid/ask (buy/sell) difference is lower in Thailand.

some people arrive at wrong assumptions, respectively calculations because they compare apples with oranges by not taking the different currencies in which gold is quoted into consideration.

example:

-the selling price of 1 Baht weight is today THB 18,200

-world market price of gold per Troy ounce USD 1,099.50

-one Troy ounce of gold is the equivalent of ~2.0438 Baht weights

-the mid exchange rate US-Dollar/Thai Baht today is 34.89

18200 : 34.89 = $521.64 x 2.0438 = $1,066.12 x 1.0363 (Thai gold purity only 96.5%) = $1,105 minus goldshop margin = $1,099.50 = difference zero!

this lesson is free of charge although i have wasted at least 5 minutes of my precious time.

If you don't want to wast your precious time ,why post?

an oxymoronic question not taking facts into consideration combined with the wrong assumption that i don't want to post although i posted

[nithisa78]

We all knock Thailand occasionally, but just think of how many governments around the "civilized" world that would kill to have a current account surplus. That is something they have right .... live within your means.

no we all don't. the silent majority lives a life of constant appreciation. No need for whipping boy. Take ownership for our lives.

you maybe the spokesperson for the malcontents. You are not the spokesperson for me.

Edited July 25, 2015 by nithisa78

[cookee68]

I'm happy to see the baht slide , the further the better . When I first came it was 70baht to the pound stirling , but every little counts .

When I first came over it was 35 to the pound Stirling, only went up after the Asian crash.

That must have been in the 60s or 70s

nope! that was even in the 90s till the crash 97.

wow, I can remember it being good in the late 90s but I never knew it was that low a few years earlier