Thailand not tilting towards China, away from US: Expert

[webfact]

Thailand Not Tilting Towards China, Away From US: Expert
A Japanese scholar sees more continuity than change in Bangkok’s foreign policy.
By Prashanth Parameswaran

WASHINGTON: -- Thailand is not shifting its foreign policy dramatically towards embracing China at the expense of the United States, a leading Japanese scholar said Wednesday.

Growing estrangement between the United States and Thailand following a bloodless coup in May 2014, coupled with Bangkok’s decisions to initially award a submarine deal to China and hand over 109 Uighurs to Beijing, have led to concerns that the country’s generals are moving too close to China (See: “Is China’s Submarine Deal With Thailand Now in Peril?”).

But Nobuhiro Aizawa, an associate professor at Kyushu University and a former researcher at the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), told an audience at a Washington, D.C.-based think tank that he did not see any serious shift towards China in post-coup Thai foreign policy.

“In terms of foreign policy, I would rather see more similarities,” Aizawa said at an event at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

If, for instance, one were to compare the travel schedules of ousted former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra and Thailand’s current leader Prayuth Chan-o-cha, Aizawa argued, there would be a consistent pattern of visiting Thailand’s neighbors as well as China and Japan.

Full story: http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/thailand-not-tilting-towards-china-away-from-us-expert/

-- The Diplomat 2015-08-13

[keemapoot]

Although I hate the word "hub" in connection with all aspirations voiced by Thailand, I found this quote to be the most interesting in the article:

China’s ambitions to make Kunming the hub of continental Southeast Asia through an ambitious string of infrastructure projects in the region and Bangkok’s own aspirations for that status.

There seems no doubt China intends to make Kunming its transportation hub for SE Asia, and whether or not they intend it to be more than that is a competitive danger that Bangkok should heed carefully, and I think Thai leadership are and will. Kunming has come a long way since I first visited 20+ years ago, and China is making it another showpiece in a long string.

This alone should temper any fears that Thailand and Bangkok will be subsumed by the Chinese juggernaut, as Thailand will be fighting for its own SE Asia leadership position at the same time as increasing cooperation with China. By necessity, it will need to come back to America as soon as practicable.

Edited August 12, 2015 by keemapoot

[Thai at Heart]

Although I hate the word "hub" in connection with all aspirations voiced by Thailand, I found this quote to be the most interesting in the article:

China’s ambitions to make Kunming the hub of continental Southeast Asia through an ambitious string of infrastructure projects in the region and Bangkok’s own aspirations for that status.

There seems no doubt China intends to make Kunming its transportation hub for SE Asia, and whether or not they intend it to be more than that is a competitive danger that Bangkok should heed carefully, and I think Thai leadership are and will. Kunming has come a long way since I first visited 20+ years ago, and China is making it another showpiece in a long string.

This alone should temper any fears that Thailand and Bangkok will be subsumed by the Chinese juggernaut, as Thailand will be fighting for its own SE Asia leadership position at the same time as increasing cooperation with China. By necessity, it will need to come back to America as soon as practicable.

Any successful effort to make Kunming a true hub would surpass any effort from Bangkok simply due to volume of trade.

Today, shipments from south West China exit China via shanghai huangpu.

Move a significant volume of that to Kunming and onwards and it will represent an enormous volume of traffic that will automatically make it the hub to deal with for outgoing goods.

This dalliance with China will wear off soon enough. The junta don't bring Thai business to the table because they know every policy may change once an elected govt come to the table.

Kunming today versus 20 years ago is absolutely unrecognisable.

Edited August 12, 2015 by Thai at Heart

[tonbridgebrit]

Okay, everybody, get real.
You will notice that it was some Japanese bloke who said that Thailand was not tilting towards China, and away from the US.

Whatever Japanese man who said this is obviously talking with a biased and ridiculous mentality. He is saying this out of hope rather than reality. Japan is basically a slave to the USA (okay, call Japan a vassel state of the USA ever since 1945) and they hate China far more than they dislike America.

I really do think that people should remember that Japan was very much part of World War Two. Yes, World War Two was not just about defeating the evil of Nazi Germany, it was also about defeating Japan.

Basically, a load of Japanese are scared of China. They would rather be a prostitute to America rather than be raped by China. But don't worry, China is not going to attack Japan. China just wants to export it's low-priced goods.

[chilli42]

China's current ambitions are focused on Asia and Africa (for the resources). They will seek to tame SEA and make them vassal states. China has the vision and money to make KM what ever it wants. Both of these assets in very short supply in Thailand. The opportunity and weath acquired by Thailand in the 1980's and 1990's has been squandered. That window will not open again. Vietnam has a good shot at maintaining its sovereignty. They have a deep and healthy mistrust of the Chinese, they are smart and hard working and they are the low cost producer of choice in SEA. Shall be interesting to see where Mysnmar goes. It's strategically more important than Thailand (Its proximity to India and access to the Indian Ocean) and if they are smart they should be able to play off the Chinese against the Americans for investment.

[Bluespunk]

Not surprised really seeing as cracks are starting to appear in the Chinese economic model.

[Jai Dee]

One off-topic post has been removed from this thread.

[Time Traveller]

Not surprised really seeing as cracks are starting to appear in the Chinese economic model.

Don't worry the next US recession and those reliable Thais will be friends with China again. Or India. Or the EU. Or Russia. Or Africa. Or whover has money and will gladly ignore thai human rights violations, intellectual property violations, human trafficking etc etc.

[elgordo38]

Although I hate the word "hub" in connection with all aspirations voiced by Thailand, I found this quote to be the most interesting in the article:

China’s ambitions to make Kunming the hub of continental Southeast Asia through an ambitious string of infrastructure projects in the region and Bangkok’s own aspirations for that status.

There seems no doubt China intends to make Kunming its transportation hub for SE Asia, and whether or not they intend it to be more than that is a competitive danger that Bangkok should heed carefully, and I think Thai leadership are and will. Kunming has come a long way since I first visited 20+ years ago, and China is making it another showpiece in a long string.

This alone should temper any fears that Thailand and Bangkok will be subsumed by the Chinese juggernaut, as Thailand will be fighting for its own SE Asia leadership position at the same time as increasing cooperation with China. By necessity, it will need to come back to America as soon as practicable.

You got to love all these quotes by "experts"

[elgordo38]

Although I hate the word "hub" in connection with all aspirations voiced by Thailand, I found this quote to be the most interesting in the article:

China’s ambitions to make Kunming the hub of continental Southeast Asia through an ambitious string of infrastructure projects in the region and Bangkok’s own aspirations for that status.

There seems no doubt China intends to make Kunming its transportation hub for SE Asia, and whether or not they intend it to be more than that is a competitive danger that Bangkok should heed carefully, and I think Thai leadership are and will. Kunming has come a long way since I first visited 20+ years ago, and China is making it another showpiece in a long string.

This alone should temper any fears that Thailand and Bangkok will be subsumed by the Chinese juggernaut, as Thailand will be fighting for its own SE Asia leadership position at the same time as increasing cooperation with China. By necessity, it will need to come back to America as soon as practicable.

Any successful effort to make Kunming a true hub would surpass any effort from Bangkok simply due to volume of trade.

Today, shipments from south West China exit China via shanghai huangpu.

Move a significant volume of that to Kunming and onwards and it will represent an enormous volume of traffic that will automatically make it the hub to deal with for outgoing goods.

This dalliance with China will wear off soon enough. The junta don't bring Thai business to the table because they know every policy may change once an elected govt come to the table.

Kunming today versus 20 years ago is absolutely unrecognisable.

The whole world is unrecognizable compared to 20 years ago when I retired. Today its what country is doing what idiotic thing daily in the news. When you have left your footprint all over the planet you just scratch your head in wonderment and wonder what the hell planet am I living on. Am I living in a alternate universe? Maybe I passed away but part of me stayed behind. As this does not seem like Heaven it must be Hell.

[Srikcir]

If Thailand is not shifting its foreign policy dramatically towards embracing China at the expense of the United States, it is doing so at its OWN expense.

The USA is strong enough economically and militarily to deal with whatever petty consequences may arise from the Junta's daliances with China.

But the Junta is plunging Thailand into an economic abyss with inept foreign policies and economic decisions. The nation's survival has become more tenuous under the Junta government that took power allegedly to protect it from chaos.

An economically healthy nation experiencing freedom of expression within a democratic regime might be preferrable. But that would require the military to sacrifice its absolute power.

[TomJoad]

As long as America keeps spending $ 800 B (a year!) on "defense" and is 48% of the world's military, Thailand will keep listening.*

_________

* Yet, the total amount the US government spends on medical research (cancer, heart disease, alzheimers, etc etc, you know, the kind of stuff that actually KILLS people ) is only $30 B a year. Says a lot about our priorities these days.