IS bomb on Russia plane would herald new phase in conflict

[webfact]

IS bomb on Russia plane would herald new phase in conflict
By ZEINA KARAM

BEIRUT (AP) — At this stage, there is no hard evidence. But reports from the U.S. and Britain suggesting an Islamic State group bomb may have caused the Russian plane crash in Egypt are raising the alarm among experts, who say such an act would be a frightening change in tactics by the extremist group.

It would also underscore the failure so far of the U.S.-led coalition to deter the jihadis — despite the recent addition of Russia to the seemingly formidable forces arrayed against them.

Russian and Egyptian officials say any talk about a bomb is premature, and aviation authorities are working on all possible theories as to why the Airbus A321-200 crashed Saturday in Egypt's chaotic Sinai Peninsula, 23 minutes after takeoff.

Still, British Prime Minister David Cameron said Thursday it was "more likely than not" that an explosive device brought the jetliner down. If that proves to be true, and if the Islamic State group was responsible, it would be the Sunni extremists' largest act of transnational terrorism by far.

While the Islamic State group has claimed responsibility for deadly attacks that struck tourists in Tunisia and Shiite mosques in oil-rich Sunni Gulf countries — claims that have not been proven — it has so far refrained from spectacular al-Qaida-style attacks on airliners. It has focused instead on seizing and expanding territory it already holds in Syria and Iraq, and establishing branches in other countries like Egypt and Libya.

And while some attacks in the West may have been inspired by the group, there has been no clear evidence that any of them was planned or directed by the group itself.

"The Sinai attack would be a first, and would signal that the Islamic State has become both capable of — and interested in — joining the dreadful ranks of global terrorism," concluded an analysis by the Soufan Group, a private geopolitical risk assessment company.

Given the Islamic State militants' success in creating mayhem in the region through its brutal tactics and ferocious fanaticism, such a metamorphosis would be a major challenge for security services around the world.

IS has claimed responsibility for bringing the Russian plane down in written statements, as well as video and audio messages posted on the Internet this week. It said the attack was retaliation for Russia's air campaign against IS — and other groups — in Syria, where Moscow wants to preserve the rule of President Bashar Assad. The group warned Putin that they would also target him "at home."

But IS has not offered any details to back its claim. While releasing specifics would add credibility, the group may be withholding either because its claim is false, or because doing so would undermine plans for similar attacks in the future — or because the aura of mystery might deepen its mystique among die-hard followers.

A U.S. official briefed on the matter said that intercepted communications played a role in the tentative conclusion that the Islamic State group's Sinai affiliate planted an explosive device on the plane.

However, the official added that if it was a bomb, intelligence analysts don't believe IS leaders in Syria ordered the operation, but rather that it was planned and executed by the group's Sinai affiliate, which operates autonomously.

The Islamic State group's insistent series of responsibility claims suggests it is trying to boost its global credentials.

Until now, the main advantage it has claimed over al-Qaida is its hold over a significant chunk of territory in Iraq and Syria.

Aymenn al-Tamimi, an expert on rebel and Islamic extremist groups and a fellow at the Middle East Forum think tank, said bombing a jetliner becomes a significant "one-up" in the rivalry with al-Qaida.

"If the Islamic State is capable of conducting attacks like this — particularly against a target now widely reviled (Russia) — this could bolster their appeal in the jihadi world," he said.

It a bomb brought down the plane, it would not be the first time a Russian jetliner was targeted by Islamic militants. Two suicide attackers brought down two Russian planes over Russia in 2004, killing 89 people — attacks claimed by Chechen rebels. Chechens and other militants from the northern Caucasus still have lots of reason to strike at Russian targets.

IS regularly uses high-tech propaganda videos, including those showing the beheadings of foreign hostages, as a form of psychological warfare.

Those gruesome videos have sent shockwaves across the globe and appear to have succeeded in instilling terror outside their base territory without having to actually attack — although there have been some gruesome killings around the region, including beheading a group of Ethiopian laborers in Libya.

In recent days, IS for the first time explicitly threatened Israel, in videos featuring a militant speaking fluent Hebrew. If they make good on this threat, the potential for escalation is huge.

Such ambition underscores the extreme challenge facing the U.S.-led coalition. Part of the challenge is the group's geographic dispersal: It has branched out from its base in Syria and Iraq, adding affiliates in Egypt's Sinai, Afghanistan, Libya and Yemen.

The U.S. and its allies have been bombing IS in Iraq since August 2014, extending the campaign to Syria a month later. Russia recently joined the fray, launching an aerial campaign against the group in Syria on Sept. 30. Iranian-backed militias in both countries are fighting the group on the ground. Yet IS has not been pushed back an inch in its strongholds of Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria.

In another incremental step, Obama announced last week the U.S. would deploy up to 50 U.S. special operations troops into northern Syria to assist in the fight against IS.

The question now becomes whether a bomb planted by IS on an airliner will spur more serious and decisive action to destroy the group.

An official with the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq said a bomb on an aircraft is a somewhat isolated incident and would be hard to replicate, adding that it wouldn't necessarily demand a change in coalition tactics.

The attack will play into Putin's narrative that IS needs to be fought in Syria now, before it poses an even bigger threat to Russia.

Putin has regarded Syria as an opportunity to promote Russia's world standing at relatively low cost and risk, but will now be keeping a close eye on public opinion at home.
___

Zeina Karam is The Associated Press bureau chief in Beirut and has covered the region since 1996. Follow her at http://twitter.com/zkaram
___

Associated Press writers Susannah George in Baghdad, Ken Dilanian in Washington and Vladimir Isachenkov in Moscow contributed to this report.


-- (c) Associated Press 2015-11-06

[impulse]

Sadly, there is so much propaganda value in the death of these people, we'll never be able to trust the outcome of any "investigation", one way or the other.

[NeverSure]

^^^ Yes we will. The US and the UK are all over this and by the time they are finished they'll be able to tell you what the exact explosive was and where it was, if it was a bomb. They'll find embedded residue and markers and specific damage...

If it was a bomb. If it wasn't, it's almost certain they'll tell you what it actually was that caused it.

Cheers.

[impulse]

^^^ Yes we will. The US and the UK are all over this and by the time they are finished they'll be able to tell you what the exact explosive was and where it was, if it was a bomb. They'll find embedded residue and markers and specific damage...

If it was a bomb. If it wasn't, it's almost certain they'll tell you what it actually was that caused it.

Just like they told us all about WMD?

A bomb to demonize ISIS and to wag the "Told you so" finger at Putin is exactly what they want. They can find it whether it was there or not.

Edited November 6, 2015 by impulse

[Jingthing]

Russian doesn't seem to want to admit it was a bomb if it turns out it was, which is very possible. I can guess some reasons, but what do you think they are?

[Hayduke]

^^^ Yes we will. The US and the UK are all over this and by the time they are finished they'll be able to tell you what the exact explosive was and where it was, if it was a bomb. They'll find embedded residue and markers and specific damage...

If it was a bomb. If it wasn't, it's almost certain they'll tell you what it actually was that caused it.

Just like they told us all about WMD?

A bomb to demonize ISIS and to wag the "Told you so" finger at Putin is exactly what they want. They can find it whether it was there or not.

Don't know that there's much need to 'demonize' these psychopaths. They've done a remarkably good job of doing that all by themselves. Besides, they're already claiming responsibility.

Fact is, they're a highly malignant cancer and need to be taken out.

The US has the means but Obama lacks the will.

The Russians also have the means...let's see if Putin has the will.

[Tywais]

^^^ Yes we will. The US and the UK are all over this and by the time they are finished they'll be able to tell you what the exact explosive was and where it was, if it was a bomb. They'll find embedded residue and markers and specific damage...

If it was a bomb. If it wasn't, it's almost certain they'll tell you what it actually was that caused it.

Cheers.

Some of the photos show what appears to be shrapnel holes protruding outward from the craft skin.

[godden]

We know that Islam is at war with the non-Islam world, when are the politicians going to admit it.

[shamrock09]

Russian doesn't seem to want to admit it was a bomb if it turns out it was, which is very possible. I can guess some reasons, but what do you think they are?

Maybe it wasn't a bomb. In this game of smoke and mirrors truth is distorted all the time. Some say the plane was shot down. I don't know! Clearly the US and UK, its biggest ally, know and the Russians are keeping quiet. If it was shot down who would the US and the UK want to protect?

[kiwikeith]

Very sad if it was a bomb,

America would love it to be one.

The monster backed by the Saudis,earns money selling stolen oil through Turkey, selling antiques on the black market and armed with American weapons now needs to be taken out.

America has been embarassed by Russias involvement in Syria.

All the money (tax payers) they have spent on airstrikes that have done nothing, now they have to pay attention, ISIS is now out of control and Obama still talks gibberish as they were happy for ISIS to take out Syria.

[impulse]

^^^ Yes we will. The US and the UK are all over this and by the time they are finished they'll be able to tell you what the exact explosive was and where it was, if it was a bomb. They'll find embedded residue and markers and specific damage...

If it was a bomb. If it wasn't, it's almost certain they'll tell you what it actually was that caused it.

Just like they told us all about WMD?

A bomb to demonize ISIS and to wag the "Told you so" finger at Putin is exactly what they want. They can find it whether it was there or not.

Don't know that there's much need to 'demonize' these psychopaths. They've done a remarkably good job of doing that all by themselves. Besides, they're already claiming responsibility.

Fact is, they're a highly malignant cancer and need to be taken out.

The US has the means but Obama lacks the will.

The Russians also have the means...let's see if Putin has the will.

That’s probably true, but it’s beside the point.

Democracy cannot work when the people, then the politicians make their decisions based on lies.

Recent announcements of “advisors” going to Syria are strangely reminiscent of a little country in SE Asia, 50+ years ago.

And regardless of what the spin masters try to convince us, it ain’t “different this time.”

[phantomfiddler]

What little pleasure there ever was in flying anywhere has certainly been destroyed by our muslim friends

[HenryB]

We know that Islam is at war with the non-Islam world, when are the politicians going to admit it.

The West are afraid to admit this because they are cowards

Yes Cowards

Now we will see if Russia are Cowards also

Will their friends the Chinese help remember the Chinese have a large Muslim population

[Rancid]

Read an interesting article suggesting that just as cars can be hacked so can planes. Confirmed by Israeli intelligence.

Also seems many similarities between how the AA plane in Indonesia went down. Pilot did radio loss of control before transmission ceased. Suggests plane could have been put into extreme manoeuvres that broke it up, if so sure wasn't ISIS on their own.

Regardless expect plenty of propaganda will be milked, also seems the loss of Western civilians is a tragedy but not so for Russians.

[zaphod reborn]

At this stage, there is no hard evidence. But reports from the U.S. and Britain suggesting an Islamic State group bomb may have caused the Russian plane crash in Egypt are raising the alarm among experts, who say such an act would be a frightening change in tactics by the extremist group.

Sorry, no it wouldn't. If the media had done any kind of investigation, or had RTP not covered it up, they would have found the link between ISIL and the Erawan bombing. No one lifted their finger to research the fact that ISIL was the source of all the fake Turkish passports that had circulated through Thailand and Malaysia, the same fake passports that were found in the room with the bomb-making materials.

Edited November 6, 2015 by zaphod reborn

[DLang]

Don't know that there's much need to 'demonize' these psychopaths. They've done a remarkably good job of doing that all by themselves.

Fact is, they're a highly malignant cancer and need to be taken out.

I agree completely.

We're talking about the American Military-Industrial Complex.

Right?

[Richard W]

^^^ Yes we will. The US and the UK are all over this and by the time they are finished they'll be able to tell you what the exact explosive was and where it was, if it was a bomb. They'll find embedded residue and markers and specific damage...

If it was a bomb. If it wasn't, it's almost certain they'll tell you what it actually was that caused it.

The UK and US do not have physical access to the wreckage. At best, they will have access to the Ukrainian victims (3 in number, I believe), and I suspect that won't happen either.

[TheCruncher]

^^^ Yes we will. The US and the UK are all over this and by the time they are finished they'll be able to tell you what the exact explosive was and where it was, if it was a bomb. They'll find embedded residue and markers and specific damage...

If it was a bomb. If it wasn't, it's almost certain they'll tell you what it actually was that caused it.

Cheers.

Some of the photos show what appears to be shrapnel holes protruding outward from the craft skin.

Earlier there were reports that the explosion may have been caused by diving equipment. I think that would mean oxygen cannisters, which in my opinion, would give similar visible results as a bomb.

[craigt3365]

We know that Islam is at war with the non-Islam world, when are the politicians going to admit it.

Ummm....it's been mentioned in the press pretty much every day for the past several years. By politicians around the world.

And actually, it's a war between various muslim tribes.

http://religion.blogs.cnn.com/2013/09/04/syrian-wars-got-religion-and-that-aint-good/

(CNN) - How did Syria go from an internal uprising to a wider clash drawing funding and fighters from across the region?

In a word, Middle East experts say, religion.

Shiite Muslims from Lebanon, Iraq and Iran have flooded into Syria to defend sacred sites and President Bashar al-Assad's embattled regime. Sunni Muslims, some affiliated with al Qaeda, have rushed in to join rebels, most of whom are Sunni.

Both sides use religious rhetoric as a rallying cry, calling each other "infidels" and "Satan's army."

[Expat1]

Now there are two groups that one can trust in this scenario. No credibility gaps here. Given America's attempt to overthrow Assad, their hand in starting ISIL (ask a number of multi-star US Generals about this) and their feeble non-efforts to stop ISIL (again one may ask the Belgians who left because of this) and lastly, the support for what they call the "moderate" forces that once again they created. Anytime one sees Zio-Yanks pointing the finger at someone else take pause and consider what the reality is and what they may gain by what they may lose. I would consider ALL options especially US and friends operatives until an assessment is forthcoming from the Russians and no one else. The Russians just moved more of those S-300s and 400s in for air suppression work, and those things clear skies and the US, et al know it. So sit back and consider, are the finger pointers right or are they the ones deflecting the blame first.

[ddavidovsky]

It was always freakingly obvious that it was a bomb, only the respective governments have been dragging their heels in admitting it because of the huge policy implications for Russia, and the potential damage to tourism for Egypt. For some inexplicable reason, the media have been wrong-footed by this smokescreen (being totally waylaid by the talk about the impossibility of shooting the plane down) and have been unwilling/unable to even put their finger on the bomb theory until quite recently. Such is the power of spin.

Brutish forces occasionally rise up and, once they have proven evil enough, civilisation has the moral responsibility to beat them down. That time has come.

[Mudcrab]

Russian doesn't seem to want to admit it was a bomb if it turns out it was, which is very possible. I can guess some reasons, but what do you think they are?

Probably a devious plan by Mossad to get the Russians to up the ante.

[JHolmesJr]

Russian doesn't seem to want to admit it was a bomb if it turns out it was, which is very possible. I can guess some reasons, but what do you think they are?

Probably a devious plan by Mossad to get the Russians to up the ante.

Or worse, an act perpetrated by the russkies themselves…to earn the right to stay on in the M.E.

[Mosha]

From the BBC, The intel comes from intercepted messages between the so called islamists, This could be as reliable as the WMD statements.

[Jingthing]

From the BBC, The intel comes from intercepted messages between the so called islamists, This could be as reliable as the WMD statements.

But there seems to be evidence in the wreckage. Such as the way some bodies were charred report to be associated with a bomb. Bush WMD thing was a disaster but that doesn't mean that everything else is the same. That is not logical.

[Jingthing]

Russian doesn't seem to want to admit it was a bomb if it turns out it was, which is very possible. I can guess some reasons, but what do you think they are?

OK.

I think it's time to CANCEL the above post.

Russia has suspended air service to Egypt... connect the dots ... game over ... it's clear now that Russia agrees the crash was a TERRORISM event.

Next ...

Edited November 6, 2015 by Jingthing

[stoneyboy]

Russian doesn't seem to want to admit it was a bomb if it turns out it was, which is very possible. I can guess some reasons, but what do you think they are?

OK.

I think it's time to CANCEL the above post.

Russia has suspended air service to Sinai ... connect the dots ... game over ... it's clear now that Russia agrees the crash was a TERRORISM event.

Next ...

It was fairly obvious,the British Govt would not have gone to the trouble and disruption without relatively sound intelligence,it was merely the Russians not wanting to be told by someone else what they already suspected.

[dabhand]

Apparently there are 45,000 Russian holidaying in Sharm at the moment.

The TV shots of the airport were a but chaotic today. Looks like the Brits are going to have some company in the coming days. They were complaining about the conditions at the airport, they ain't seen nothing yet!!

Maybe Thailand can offer some good deals on holidays to those Russians who were due to fly to Egypt in the coming weeks? Oh No!!

[Jingthing]

Yes I expect many to shift to Thailand this winter.

The biggest groups to Egypt were Russians first, then Brits and Germans.

[roo860]

^^^ Yes we will. The US and the UK are all over this and by the time they are finished they'll be able to tell you what the exact explosive was and where it was, if it was a bomb. They'll find embedded residue and markers and specific damage...

If it was a bomb. If it wasn't, it's almost certain they'll tell you what it actually was that caused it.

Just like they told us all about WMD?

A bomb to demonize ISIS and to wag the "Told you so" finger at Putin is exactly what they want. They can find it whether it was there or not.

Don't know that there's much need to 'demonize' these psychopaths. They've done a remarkably good job of doing that all by themselves. Besides, they're already claiming responsibility.

Fact is, they're a highly malignant cancer and need to be taken out.

The US has the means but Obama lacks the will.

The Russians also have the means...let's see if Putin has the will.

Boots on the ground, with Arab states taking the lead.