Now that Britain has voted to leave the EU, what comes next?

[webfact]

Now that Britain has voted to leave the EU, what comes next?
By DANICA KIRKA and FRANK JORDANS

LONDON (AP) — Britons have voted to leave the European Union, their concerns about immigration and what some saw as the ever-increasing power of the 28-member bloc trumping the attraction of being part of a single market of more than 500 million people and a European project forged from the ashes of World War II.

Here's a look at what happens next:

WHAT HAPPENS FRIDAY MORNING?

Prime Minister David Cameron, head of the ruling Conservative Party, is expected to make a statement, most likely outside his official residence at 10 Downing Street. Former London Mayor Boris Johnson has not indicated when he will speak about the "leave" campaign success. U.K. Independence Party chief Nigel Farage, who spoke several times late Thursday and early Friday, also plans a further statement Friday morning. Cameron's defeat in the referendum represents a political earthquake that may re-shape the Conservative Party leadership, which was deeply split by the Brexit issue, and could cost him his job. "He's almost certainly got to go," said Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London. "There are too many people who will see him as someone who lost his legitimacy and ... was outplayed by an opponent who wants to take over as a leader."


WHAT HAPPENS TO ECONOMY?

The pound suffered one of its biggest one-day falls in history Friday, plummeting more than 10 percent in six hours on concerns that severing ties with the EU will hurt the U.K. economy and undermine London's position as a global financial center. Authorities including the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England had warned Britain's exit would send shivers through a world economy that is only slowly recovering from the global crisis that began in 2008. Now economists will wait to see if their predictions come to pass.

WHAT ABOUT THE NEIGHBORS?

EU leaders will see Britain quitting as a dangerous precedent and a potentially fatal blow to the European project. Some face growing euroskepticism from their own citizens and may feel the need to make a strong case domestically for why the now-27-nation bloc has a future. This could lead to reforms of how the EU works. Future negotiations may be overshadowed by a sense of betrayal and the feeling that an example needs to be made of the U.K. to discourage others from leaving too. The fallout could also hit Europe's fragile growth. Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble recently said that "it would be a miracle if a withdrawal of Britain would come without economic disadvantages." On the other hand, a British exit, or Brexit, could spur the European Union into action. Since joining the club in 1973, Britain has shaped the bloc mainly by putting the brakes on the drive toward ever-closer political union, a project that could now be revived with gusto.

COULD LAWMAKERS DECIDE TO IGNORE THE PROCESS?

Britain's referendum doesn't automatically trigger an exit from the European Union, which has led a few commentators to suggest that lawmakers might simply decide to ignore or slow-ball the process. So could they? "In legal theory that is possible. In practice that is absolutely not possible," said Alan Renwick, the deputy director of the Constitution Unit at University College London. "If there is a vote for Brexit then on Friday the PM will indicate how the process of Brexit will begin."

THE WAY FORWARD MAY NOT BE STRAIGHTFORWARD

The result will trigger a new series of negotiations as Britain and the EU search for a way to separate economies that have become intertwined since the U.K. joined the bloc on Jan. 1, 1973. Under Article 50 of the Treaty of European Union, talks would likely last two years, with the possibility for extension if all of the remaining 27 EU nations agree. But the clock starts ticking only when the U.K. notifies the EU that it wants a divorce — and some on the "leave" side have suggested that this won't occur until 2018. However, the EU may not accept a delayed exit. "U.K. negotiations with the European Union will prove difficult, given that EU leaders will not want to set a precedent for an easy withdrawal for other countries that could reconsider their status, such as Denmark," said Howard Archer of IHS, a research firm. No matter what, the EU will face issues. Alongside economic woes, troubles with Greece and the inability to agree on how to manage a refugee emergency, a British exit would deepen Europe's existential crisis.

___

Associated Press Writer Raphael Satter in London contributed to this report.


-- (c) Associated Press 2016-06-24

[piersbeckett]

Game on!

[neverdie]

Ignoring it would probably result in civil war, even Cameron isn't that stupid.

He's history as it is, but he wants his lucrative pension. Bet he wished he cashed it in last week

[thai3]

Hopefully the whole corrupt, bureaucratic and unworkable union will slowly start to fall apart.

Edited June 24, 2016 by thai3

[kimamey]

Hopefully the whole corrupt, bureaucratic and unworkable union will slowly start to fall apart.

The problem comes when that falling apart adversely affects an already weak economy. In or out the UK and many other countries trade with the EU and it will hit them as well.

China wasn't directly hit by the global crisis in 2008 but the fact that many western countries who were stopped buying so much from them did. They're fortunate that to so extent they've been able to counter that by encouraging the domestic economy. That won't work forever but it's helping in the short term. When you're hit on both fronts it's a bit more difficult.

It will certainly be interesting.

[kimamey]

Ignoring it would probably result in civil war, even Cameron isn't that stupid.

He's history as it is, but he wants his lucrative pension. Bet he wished he cashed it in last week

I doubt he has any pension worries.

The issue now is that a lot of the politicians who will have to push this through and negotiate things like trade deals are pro EU so they could include things like free movement even if with more restrictions.

This won't be simple.

[happy Joe]

- GB rejected Europe, now Europe will reject GB.

- Reconciliation GB / USA and Canada.

- Reconciliation EU / Russia and China.

- EU forced to question to avoid contagion.

- Book Columbia will lose sustainably..

But finally everyone will find its rightful place with Europe far away from US tutelage and GB vassal US definitive .

[Galactus]

good move from Brits.

Europe is just full of hypocrites.

More countries in EU will follow this case.

from now on EU has no future.

never forget though, It is first rats to abandon a sinking ship:)

Edited June 24, 2016 by Galactus

[MaxYakov]

A national epidemic of very bad hangovers.

Edited June 24, 2016 by MaxYakov

[bkkcanuck8]

England and Wales should leave the United Kingdom... while Scotland and Northern Ireland remain part of Europe.

[petermik]

The Dutch will be next.....they also are fed up with being dictated to by people who have no interest in what is best for their country.

Great day for Britain I say.

[RickBradford]

From the leader of one of the Netherlands' biggest political parties:

Thursday, June 23, 2016, will go down in history as Britain’s Independence Day. The Europhile elite has been defeated. Britain points Europe the way to the future and to liberation. It is time for a new start, relying on our own strength and sovereignty. Also in the Netherlands.

The Dutch people deserve a referendum as well. The Party for Freedom consequently demands a referendum on NExit, a Dutch EU exit. As quickly as possible the Dutch need to get the opportunity to have their say about Dutch membership of the European Union.

[Bunnychow]

- GB rejected Europe, now Europe will reject GB.

- Reconciliation GB / USA and Canada.

- Reconciliation EU / Russia and China.

- EU forced to question to avoid contagion.

- Book Columbia will lose sustainably..

But finally everyone will find its rightful place with Europe far away from US tutelage and GB vassal US definitive .

Nope

GB leaves

France votes to leave

Holland votes to leave

EU implodes and Germany left holding the baby

The United States of Europe experiment fails

[BuaBS]

Geert Wilders rules !! ... well not yet anyway but he might .

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-24/now-its-our-turn-geert-wilders-calls-dutch-referendum

[OMGImInPattaya]

Welcome back to the fraternity of free nations...come on in, the water's warm and invigorating ☺

Edited June 24, 2016 by OMGImInPattaya

[happy Joe]

The Dutch will be next.....they also are fed up with being dictated to by people who have no interest in what is best for their country.

Great day for Britain I say.

It must be hoped.

What interest for Europe that these countries opportunists who have no community ideal and participate for the unic purpose to glean some market share?

Same for Sweden and Denmark, good riddance if they leave.

In France, many were beginning to open Champagne in the late morning. Funny to get together with us, sharing the same ideal.

[thai3]

Boris Johnson for PM and Blair to be arrested as a tratoir should be the next

[OMGImInPattaya]

The EU is a profoundly anti-democratic movement at its core and this has now been exposed. The Dutch, French, Poles, and Hungarians may well be next to push the eject button. It should return to its original purpose as a trade union (at which it was doing quite well)...not a political, social, and currency union (at which it has failed).

[Bunnychow]

Boris Johnson for PM and Blair to be arrested as a tratoir should be the next

And what about Dodgy Dave ?

[Chicog]

The EU is a profoundly anti-democratic movement at its core and this has now been exposed. The Dutch, French, Poles, and Hungarians may well be next to push the eject button. It should return to its original purpose as a trade union (at which it was doing quite well)...not a political, social, and currency union (at which it has failed).

Nailed it.

[MissAndry]

Found this,

[Steely Dan]

From the leader of one of the Netherlands' biggest political parties:

Thursday, June 23, 2016, will go down in history as Britain’s Independence Day. The Europhile elite has been defeated. Britain points Europe the way to the future and to liberation. It is time for a new start, relying on our own strength and sovereignty. Also in the Netherlands.

The Dutch people deserve a referendum as well. The Party for Freedom consequently demands a referendum on NExit, a Dutch EU exit. As quickly as possible the Dutch need to get the opportunity to have their say about Dutch membership of the European Union.

Can I just say Jenga!

[chrisinth]

I wonder if the 24th June will now be an annual holiday as Britain’s Independence Day?

[marcofunny]

the most ridiculous thing I ve heard in the remain campaign was border control and Independence is Xenophobic what a propaganda . This vote is about the right for a sovereign country to self rule, the right to govern oneself and to have a democracy where the elected are accountable to the electorate, the right for a government to determine how its tax is spent, the right to determine its own law, the right to develop international trade with whom it chooses, the right to protect itself. This decision is about the people's right to choose its own future and not to have a future dictated by others outside of the sovereign country.

[steve187]

Cameron resigns, his lies have caught up with him

[MJP]

Cameron's jacked!

[SantiSuk]

Now look for even worse chaos on the markets.

[Alive]

So you Brits want to rent Hong Kong again?

[MJP]

Now look for even worse chaos on the markets.

Makes for great telly!

[Alive]

Most Brits in Thailand aren't posting online now. They've run to sell their pounds before they lose 20%.