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Posted

Opportunities

...

- bigger access to the rest of the world's markets

Makes me remember back before NAFTA before US / Canada "free trade" when we were having a spat with the US over trade issues and the Prime Minister basically said, we don't need the US we can trade with the world.... went around the world pushing for more trade and better trading relationships.... then had to come back and play nice with the US because no matter how well you build trading relations internationally it typically is a mere fraction of the trading that you do with your closest neighbours... it really often is location, location, location...

That's just not true anymore,

Cheaper to source a container of TV sets from China, than from Germany (if they made them any more).

Apples, yep they nearly all come from China too. Grain comes from the USA.

I miss Argentine beef, the EU stopped the UK buying from them anymore.

Without the EU forcing things, I doubt if the UK would buy anything from Europe, apart from wine and cheese.

British laws, 59% of all new British laws forced through by the EU in the last 4 years.

Your trade with just Germany is still probably close to double that of China... and Germany is a much smaller country.... If you group all EU trade together it dwarfs everything else -- even with the cheaper outsourcing to China.

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Posted

No class whatsoever.

If you're referring to that brandy-swilling twerp Juncker, you have hit the nail on the head.
He went up to Farage at the beginning of the session and said: "I'm surprised to see you here. Didn't you support Brexit? The people voted for Brexit. Why are you here?"
No class, indeed

And so clueless that he does not understand that currently Farage is still an MEP and has every right and reason to be there.

Farage should have answered, "Because, unlike you, I was elected"

Posted

It appears that many voters voted with very little ... to zero ... effort to actually understand the realities of what happens when England actually departs the EU. Instead they depended upon slanted misinformation and slogans. Now the reality is slapping them in the face and they're bewildered. Very stupid indeed.

Tiresome same bullshit, that anyone who voted to leave is; stupid, uneducated, xenophobic, racist or too old and shouldn't be voting. I voted to leave and am none of these.

Of course all of the remain voters were well informed and educated, as you can see here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIjUESuwqes#t=74

Posted

No class whatsoever.

If you're referring to that brandy-swilling twerp Juncker, you have hit the nail on the head.
He went up to Farage at the beginning of the session and said: "I'm surprised to see you here. Didn't you support Brexit? The people voted for Brexit. Why are you here?"
No class, indeed

And so clueless that he does not understand that currently Farage is still an MEP and has every right and reason to be there.

Farage should have answered, "Because, unlike you, I was elected"

Hysterically funny . . .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmcaVDT2Uls

Posted

^ Additionally if you look at the most important part of it.... what you export.... I doubt China is a big customer of the UK.

I really wonder if anyone knows. I have read reports that the UK's exports to EU are anything from 60% down to only 10%.

What exactly does the UK export to the EU?

Posted

It appears that many voters voted with very little ... to zero ... effort to actually understand the realities of what happens when England actually departs the EU. Instead they depended upon slanted misinformation and slogans. Now the reality is slapping them in the face and they're bewildered. Very stupid indeed.

That assumes a bad reality for UK, and a good one for EU. Heck of an assumption that.

Posted

It appears that many voters voted with very little ... to zero ... effort to actually understand the realities of what happens when England actually departs the EU. Instead they depended upon slanted misinformation and slogans. Now the reality is slapping them in the face and they're bewildered. Very stupid indeed.

So what happens then when the UK (not just England) leaves the EU?

Threats

- less preferential access to the EU market

- weaker financial centre

Opportunities

- better control of policies

- bigger access to the rest of the world's markets

- better control of immigration / welfare benefits etc

- savings of approximately 10 billion pounds a year

Others are welcome to add to both threats and opportunities for the UK. Let's try to have a balanced debate

Threat/Opportunity : Scotland out.

Threat : Political instability N.Ireland

Opportunities : Even more competitive. Able to decide trading terms with rest of the world.

Posted

^ Additionally if you look at the most important part of it.... what you export.... I doubt China is a big customer of the UK.

I really wonder if anyone knows. I have read reports that the UK's exports to EU are anything from 60% down to only 10%.

What exactly does the UK export to the EU?

UK exports to EU account for 46% of all UK exports. And there is a wide range of products, goods, and services. However 90% of GDP is non EU related, although the way this is calculated is open to interpretation.

Posted

^ Additionally if you look at the most important part of it.... what you export.... I doubt China is a big customer of the UK.

I really wonder if anyone knows. I have read reports that the UK's exports to EU are anything from 60% down to only 10%.

What exactly does the UK export to the EU?

UK exports to EU account for 46% of all UK exports. And there is a wide range of products, goods, and services. However 90% of GDP is non EU related, although the way this is calculated is open to interpretation.

A simple reading of those two sentences - something seems fishy....

Posted

It appears that many voters voted with very little ... to zero ... effort to actually understand the realities of what happens when England actually departs the EU. Instead they depended upon slanted misinformation and slogans. Now the reality is slapping them in the face and they're bewildered. Very stupid indeed.

What reality is this that is slapping people in the face?

The Pound has dropped and a lot of politicians have been flustering around in a mad panic wetting themselves. That's about it so far. Hardly the end of the world is it?

Of course with change comes uncertainty. I don't think Brexit voters were as stupid as you seem to think to have not grasped this. What they did fail to grasp was that there would be an attempt to try and ignore the result of the referendum.

Yes it is all panic, but in reality nothing has changed as yet.

The fall in the value of the pound and stock market is a normal adjustment as happens with an anticipation of reduced growth, and political instability. It has seemed dramatic because the markets had bet on a vote to remain.

Mid term there is the threat of a deeper recessioin due to reduced investment.

Posted

Of course it's still on. It's a mess and everything's up in the air, but there can't be any back-tracking over the popular vote. That would open a real can of worms.

'That would open a REAL can of worms' (!?) Breathtaking...

You mean like the 'REAL' current and ongoing devastating clusterfck which was brought upon us by mostly ageing angry fearful racist isolationist xenophobes and low-information reactionary air-heads led by opportunist pied-pipers of utter stupidity, outright lies and complete shamelessness, the likes of Farage and Boris? Well that can of rotten worms has already been well and truly opened now... (!) Thanks and congrats on 'WINNING'...

Speaking as an ageing, angry, fearful, racist, isolationist, xenophobe (albeit one who understands how to punctuate a list of adjectives), and acknowledging that I am a mere low information, reactionary airhead, thank you for your gracious congratulations.

Now, why don't you...

I blame mum for not waking them up on polling day. The young would have voted overwhelmingly to remain, but the turnout was 32% (think not sure).

Posted

Opportunities

...

- bigger access to the rest of the world's markets

Makes me remember back before NAFTA before US / Canada "free trade" when we were having a spat with the US over trade issues and the Prime Minister basically said, we don't need the US we can trade with the world.... went around the world pushing for more trade and better trading relationships.... then had to come back and play nice with the US because no matter how well you build trading relations internationally it typically is a mere fraction of the trading that you do with your closest neighbours... it really often is location, location, location...

Yes that is true but it is also about competitiveness, and what you are selling. UK will come from a very low trading base that is true. But again it is wrong to assume that trade with Europe will be decimated. It might not even be impacted at all. Further there is a trade deficit with EU, to the tune of 40 billion annually (not cast iron sure of this figure).

It's always swings and roundabouts. But as you say UK location is an advantage with Europe, there are established links, and even in the worst case scenario tariffs are generally low. For instance, the recent dip in the pound more than covers the maximum 10% tariff applied to cars.

One other important factor is access. New goods wil need to go through all sorts of rules and regulations to be traded. This is an area where EU could play dirty. But of course, anything EU would do to UK would be reciprocated. A trade war is extremely unlikely and Germany has already hinted at a conciliatory relationship.

One absolute myth: England,N.Ireland, and Wales can not have free trade with EU without accepting EU terms, one of which is free movement of labour.

Because there are some very rapacious posters on this forum, I have to add the tedious over-rider that what I have written may contain errors and would welcome correction.

Posted

Belgium which is the central headquarters of the EU has the world's largest and deepest snout trough?

What has it ever created except smoked salmon sandwiches by the thousands every day of the week to feed said snouts. Plus it has ordered all member countries to open their doors and admit millions of economic refugees searching for free welfare (money, accommodation and health services).

Britain is well rid of the EU and has saved themselves millions of pounds that would otherwise go toward the lavish lifestyles of it's members.

What Belgium has ever created?

Well, in 1944 they prevented that all Brits would have spoken German today.

So Belgium won the second world war and saved Britain from invasion. Uh!!! Tosser.

Posted

^ Additionally if you look at the most important part of it.... what you export.... I doubt China is a big customer of the UK.

I really wonder if anyone knows. I have read reports that the UK's exports to EU are anything from 60% down to only 10%.

What exactly does the UK export to the EU?

Child Benefit?
Posted

^ Additionally if you look at the most important part of it.... what you export.... I doubt China is a big customer of the UK.

I really wonder if anyone knows. I have read reports that the UK's exports to EU are anything from 60% down to only 10%.

What exactly does the UK export to the EU?

Well, I don't think the 2.2 million jobs that are based around the financial industry are all based on UK customers. Financial industry typically is one of those industries that are discriminated against if the firm is not domestic.

A lot of it is legacy from Empire times, then the expertise became useful after UK joined the EEC.... but an independent UK will likely undergo a lengthy but steady decline to meet the new independent UK needs. I am not saying on day 1 poof gone, year after year it will likely suffer due to preference given to domestic industries.

Posted

It appears that many voters voted with very little ... to zero ... effort to actually understand the realities of what happens when England actually departs the EU. Instead they depended upon slanted misinformation and slogans. Now the reality is slapping them in the face and they're bewildered. Very stupid indeed.

Tiresome same bullshit, that anyone who voted to leave is; stupid, uneducated, xenophobic, racist or too old and shouldn't be voting. I voted to leave and am none of these.

Of course all of the remain voters were well informed and educated, as you can see here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIjUESuwqes#t=74

Oh come on......you've gotta be one of those!.......I'm tipping old!sorry.gif ........joke ...jokethumbsup.gif

Disclaimer.........I'm one of the young who knows more than the oldies..........oh wait.....I voted leavecheesy.gif

Posted

^ Additionally if you look at the most important part of it.... what you export.... I doubt China is a big customer of the UK.

I really wonder if anyone knows. I have read reports that the UK's exports to EU are anything from 60% down to only 10%.

What exactly does the UK export to the EU?

Well, I don't think the 2.2 million jobs that are based around the financial industry are all based on UK customers. Financial industry typically is one of those industries that are discriminated against if the firm is not domestic.

A lot of it is legacy from Empire times, then the expertise became useful after UK joined the EEC.... but an independent UK will likely undergo a lengthy but steady decline to meet the new independent UK needs. I am not saying on day 1 poof gone, year after year it will likely suffer due to preference given to domestic industries.

This is just sheer speculation really. Unfounded negativity. Is it more a case of what you want to see happen?

I think it is accepted that short term there will be a recession. And nobody is claiming UK will become a super power.

Nobody can be definitive about the Financial sector. Certainly the domestic banks will not be effected as they are just that now: domestic. City of London is one of the world's biggest financial centres and is not as Europe dependent as the rest of UK trade. It has many factors going for it : latency, location, expertise, established base of preference, infrastructure, language, support services. It is one of those sectors that can't easily be circumvented or replaced.

A lot depends on 'passporting' which is a licence that allows institutions to freely trade in EU. Yes if things got nasty it could be revoked., but it is also rather easily circumnavigated by opening an office in an EU state, Ireland I guess. I think it's true to say that not allowing Germany, for instance, to trade freely to London there would be serious implications for the EU. It is probably the only example where UK has the whip hand.

But I am only going on what I have learnt through the broadsheets and BBC financial programmes, and I may have misunderstood.

Posted

All the ad homemin Farage attacks aside, he's done more in 17 years then most have done in their entire lives. Consistent, undeterred against impossible odds, witty, scathing, Farage spent 17 years in the EU house of sand telling them he's going to collapse its foundation. Can't get more brutally candid. He was tolerated as a side show, a peciliar artifact of a period when dissent was permitted- this is why he was tolerated- a token to an illusion.

Farage's history will not be written by his detractors. Since his supporters will be writing history, his narrative will be favorable.

Posted

All the ad homemin Farage attacks aside, he's done more in 17 years then most have done in their entire lives. Consistent, undeterred against impossible odds, witty, scathing, Farage spent 17 years in the EU house of sand telling them he's going to collapse its foundation. Can't get more brutally candid. He was tolerated as a side show, a peciliar artifact of a period when dissent was permitted- this is why he was tolerated- a token to an illusion.

Farage's history will not be written by his detractors. Since his supporters will be writing history, his narrative will be favorable.

Posted

Is this Brexit on or off? All the effort went into a vote...but many are backtracking.

Not sure what the plan is....just reading the news, it looks like the whole thing is a mess.

Obviously, the EU is going to hold a grudge....so will Britain never be the same? If the vote for Brexit was popular, by vote....then how can they turn that back? If they do, seems like tremendous effort over nothing.

People are indeed trying to overturn the result, because they didn't get the result they wanted. Seems freedom and democracy only apply when you agree with them.

Look for every trick in the book to be used to try and derail the Brexit process.

Nothing to do with democracy. The fact is referendums are not part of the British political decision making process. The issue has to be voted on by Parliament. Only a Parliamentary vote has any actual consequence. Cameron hasn't called for a debate and vote and is unlikely to before he's replaced. His successor must before any action can be taken to invoke article 50.

Europe's, or Mrs Merkel and Mr Juncker's insistence on no informal talks before article 50 is invoked means nothing can happen before Britain take that action. Cameron won't.

In the meantime the uncertainty, misinformation, propaganda and actions by extreme racists will continue to fill the void.

Spineless inept leadership across the political spectrum with those speaking only pushing their own narrow agendas.

Posted

^ Additionally if you look at the most important part of it.... what you export.... I doubt China is a big customer of the UK.

I really wonder if anyone knows. I have read reports that the UK's exports to EU are anything from 60% down to only 10%.

What exactly does the UK export to the EU?

Well, I don't think the 2.2 million jobs that are based around the financial industry are all based on UK customers. Financial industry typically is one of those industries that are discriminated against if the firm is not domestic.

A lot of it is legacy from Empire times, then the expertise became useful after UK joined the EEC.... but an independent UK will likely undergo a lengthy but steady decline to meet the new independent UK needs. I am not saying on day 1 poof gone, year after year it will likely suffer due to preference given to domestic industries.

The concept of "over time" is central. I agree that major changes will not happen in the weeks after we leave.

But with this "over time" another uncertainty comes into play. The financial stability of the EU. At the moment Germany is effectively bankrolling many of the Mediterranean countries. With the UK gone and its significant net contribution to the EU funding base gone with it, the demand for the solvent EU members to stump up more cash will raise its head. If they (primarily the Germans) are not prepared to pour more of their cash into the Mediterranean countries ( and I rather doubt that they will), then several EU countries are likely to go bust. That will wreck the Euro, and the financial stability of the EU.

I would suspect that those who have to decide whether or not to transfer operations into mainland Europe will be pondering this.

Then of course we could factor in the enthusiasm for a tax on financial transactions, notably from the French.

I can't see them turning down the chance to get their paws on that cash......

Posted

All the ad homemin Farage attacks aside, he's done more in 17 years then most have done in their entire lives.

Can you list his achievements over this period? ...I mean apart from being an integral part of the "undemocratic Brussels machine".

He didn't even win his own seat in the last General election...which is highly embarrassing since he is the party leader for UKIP.

If fact, the entire UKIP party only won 1 seat from a possible 650 ....total failure!

He promised to resign if he didn't win his seat then backtracked...much like he backtracked on the £350m to the NHS.

Posted

I know from a friend in Wales that he voted leave to stop immigration and with absolutely no thought about the complexity of the withdrawal process. Almost literally he seemed to think telling Brussels ' we're out ' would do.

The only complex bit being Cameron refusing to say "we're out".

Cameron couldn't say it because the referendum is only advisory and ' we're out ' has to pass Parliament first apparently.

Yes - the UK Parliament has the supreme authority to ignore the result of the referendum if it suits them. It just can't ignore any rules handed down by Brussels.

Posted

All the ad homemin Farage attacks aside, he's done more in 17 years then most have done in their entire lives.

Can you list his achievements over this period? ...I mean apart from being an integral part of the "undemocratic Brussels machine".

He didn't even win his own seat in the last General election...which is highly embarrassing since he is the party leader for UKIP.

If fact, the entire UKIP party only won 1 seat from a possible 650 ....total failure!

He promised to resign if he didn't win his seat then backtracked...much like he backtracked on the £350m to the NHS.

Anyone who is even vaguely familiar with the vagaries of the British voting system knows what happened in 2015:

UKIP 3.9 million votes, 1 MP

SNP 1.4 million votes, 56 MPs

Thus UKIP are disadvantaged, by the UK voting system, by about 140:1 compared with the SNP.

I daresay that travesty may have helped Farage and the Leave movement, because British people remain acutely alive to the notion of "fair play".

Posted

All the ad homemin Farage attacks aside, he's done more in 17 years then most have done in their entire lives. Consistent, undeterred against impossible odds, witty, scathing, Farage spent 17 years in the EU house of sand telling them he's going to collapse its foundation. Can't get more brutally candid. He was tolerated as a side show, a peciliar artifact of a period when dissent was permitted- this is why he was tolerated- a token to an illusion.

Farage's history will not be written by his detractors. Since his supporters will be writing history, his narrative will be favorable.

Somehow first thought the opening was related to Farage's own style of delivery. In historical terms, Farage would be lucky to be remembered in a footnote. Not meant as an attack on his supposed achievements, but as a reference to the scope of his role in shaping events.

And no, it is not very likely that his "supporters" will be writing history (as in the accounts that make a widely accepted narrative). Human societies tend to constantly, and pretty consistently, move toward forming ever larger frameworks. This is not, to be clear, an opinion necessarily favoring the EU's "vision" with all its many flaws, merely an observation oh where things are ultimately heading.

Posted

Of course it's still on. It's a mess and everything's up in the air, but there can't be any back-tracking over the popular vote. That would open a real can of worms.

'That would open a REAL can of worms' (!?) Breathtaking...

You mean like the 'REAL' current and ongoing devastating clusterfck which was brought upon us by mostly ageing angry fearful racist isolationist xenophobes and low-information reactionary air-heads led by opportunist pied-pipers of utter stupidity, outright lies and complete shamelessness, the likes of Farage and Boris? Well that can of rotten worms has already been well and truly opened now... (!) Thanks and congrats on 'WINNING'...

I can’t paste this excellent tweet into here, so I’ll retype it. It addresses this poster’s tirade effectively I think:

“I know loads of people who voted Leave, including a lot of my family, and I haven’t heard a bigoted comment from a single one of them. Not one. From the Remain side, however, there has been explicit ageist bile, contempt for the uneducated, talk of sewers bursting and lizards voting, fantasies about creating a new independent state that would exclude the rough, backward, “racist” north, and arguments for limiting old people’s right to vote on the basis that they lack the IQ or social nous necessary for making big decisions.

If the leaders of remain want to see bigotry, they should take a look in the mirror. Their “anti-bigotry” is the bigotry blighting the country now.” (Brendan O’Neill).

As for the second referendum/non binding/advisory only crowd I’ll repeat what I wrote on another thread:

It is entirely in character for those supporting an anti-democratic union to reject a democratic vote that’s not in their interests…

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