Is the Thai economy collapsing?

[hohososo]

Amazing a few mam and pop shops close and the doomsters are out in force .

Record numbers of arrivals .Stock market not too far off a record high.

Considering the global picture Thailand is doing well for a country with an Junta government . Your cash in a Thai Bank offers more protection guarantee than European banks Remember.Santander recently failed a stress test

I really, really wish people would leave the gambling for rich people ( stock market ) out of a discussion about small, local businesses and economy. Does anyone think the owners of the types of businesses I mentioned in the OP are participating in the stock market? The stock market could vanish today and it would make zero difference to the lives of the vast majority of people anywhere.

If the stock market vanished tomorrow, it would have a profound affect on every Thai person and the economy would go into a depression.

Large companies would find it extremely difficult to access capital. This will lead to a wave of bankruptcies. Next thing you know your local 7/11 will be empty as they cannot finance their inventory.

Just because the vast majority of Thais do not participate in the market or understand its function, does not mean its existence is not relevant to them.

[MissAndry]

If the stock market vanished tomorrow, it would have a profound affect on every Thai person and the economy would go into a depression.

Large companies would find it extremely difficult to access capital. This will lead to a wave of bankruptcies. Next thing you know your local 7/11 will be empty as they cannot finance their inventory.

Just because the vast majority of Thais do not participate in the market or understand its function, does not mean its existence is not relevant to them.

I don't know any Thais that work for large companies. Most near me are self employed or work for local 2/3/4 man business.

7/11 is a bad thing, it drives the local mom and pop stores out of business, and takes profits out of the local community.

Big business is evil, it takes from the local community and reduces employment.

International business is the devil, it destroys countries and puts everything in the hands of international bankers.

The world would be a safer and more peaceful place if all international commerce was totally banned and every country ringed itself with barbed wire allowing none in or out.

Edited July 21, 2016 by MissAndry

[marcofunny]

I ve heard this saga of economy collapsing many times, yet it never happened, Cuba was under an economic embargo for 50 years, yet 95% of the people are happy, very healthy, slim, fit and don't eat the garbage poisonous foods that is full of carcinogens and additives, great fresh seafood and organic food, no Monsanto and its garbage, life expectancy very high, education levels match those of the developed world.

The British politicians tried to blackmail the Brits with lies that in case of brexit, doom day will fall, nothing happened so far, it s time for the people to wake up to stop believing the wallstreet banksters and new world order elites.

Edited July 21, 2016 by marcofunny

[mania]

I don't know any Thais that work for large companies. Most near me are self employed or work for local 2/3/4 man business.

I know both types

As for the self employed I think it is a good idea

If they have a decent idea/food/trade etc it is not hard to beat the average wage paid to most mid class types here.

My wife worked years at a Uni here & after telling me what parents paid & seeing how many of the students basically

are just coasting I thought ....you know here especially...when parents are many times stall workers or farmers...maybe better

to spend that tuition money on a small business idea for the kids & say this is it sink or swim up to you

From the students I have seen they would actually learn more & have more real world experience with a start-up

Instead of some BS degree then go work for low pay anyway most of the time

Edited July 21, 2016 by mania

[hohososo]

If the stock market vanished tomorrow, it would have a profound affect on every Thai person and the economy would go into a depression.

Large companies would find it extremely difficult to access capital. This will lead to a wave of bankruptcies. Next thing you know your local 7/11 will be empty as they cannot finance their inventory.

Just because the vast majority of Thais do not participate in the market or understand its function, does not mean its existence is not relevant to them.

I don't know any Thais that work for large companies. Most near me are self employed or work for local 2/3/4 man business.

7/11 is a bad thing, it drives the local mom and pop stores out of business, and takes profits out of the local community.

Big business is evil, it takes from the local community and reduces employment.

International business is the devil, it destroys countries and puts everything in the hands of international bankers.

The world would be a safer and more peaceful place if all international commerce was totally banned and every country ringed itself with barbed wire allowing none in or out.

The mom and pop stores will have empty shelves without big business.

[marcofunny]

The mom and pop stores will have empty shelves without big business.

I I think for all falangs it s better to wish and hope for a stagnant-downed economy, who wants to retire in Singapore, HK, South Korea or Japan ??, stronger economy means life getting very expensive and un-affordable, again to the advantage of the elites and not the average people, red numbers are blissful, it means cheaper currency and living cost.

Edited July 21, 2016 by marcofunny

[Naam]

I I think for all falangs it s better to wish and hope for a stagnant-downed economy, who wants to retire in Singapore, HK, South Korea or Japan ??, stronger economy means life getting very expensive and un-affordable, again to the advantage of the elites and not the average people, red numbers are blissful, it means cheaper currency and living cost.

Ladies and Gentlemen... we have a winner!

[Agent Sumo]

If the stock market vanished tomorrow, it would have a profound affect on every Thai person and the economy would go into a depression.

Large companies would find it extremely difficult to access capital. This will lead to a wave of bankruptcies. Next thing you know your local 7/11 will be empty as they cannot finance their inventory.

Just because the vast majority of Thais do not participate in the market or understand its function, does not mean its existence is not relevant to them.

I don't know any Thais that work for large companies. Most near me are self employed or work for local 2/3/4 man business.

7/11 is a bad thing, it drives the local mom and pop stores out of business, and takes profits out of the local community.

Big business is evil, it takes from the local community and reduces employment.

International business is the devil, it destroys countries and puts everything in the hands of international bankers.

The world would be a safer and more peaceful place if all international commerce was totally banned and every country ringed itself with barbed wire allowing none in or out.

Could you be more out of touch with reality in that bubble of yours but look who I'm asking - a poster who admits he hangs out at home and on Thaivisa

Edited July 21, 2016 by Agent Sumo

[hohososo]

The mom and pop stores will have empty shelves without big business.

I I think for all falangs it s better to wish and hope for a stagnant-downed economy, who wants to retire in Singapore, HK, South Korea or Japan ??, stronger economy means life getting very expensive and un-affordable, again to the advantage of the elites and not the average people, red numbers are blissful, it means cheaper currency and living cost.

Increasing red numbers have a direct correlation to increased crime rates, corruption etc..

Lots of red numbers seen in Venezuela these days. Consider relocating there perhaps?

[hohososo]

The mom and pop stores will have empty shelves without big business.

I I think for all falangs it s better to wish and hope for a stagnant-downed economy, who wants to retire in Singapore, HK, South Korea or Japan ??, stronger economy means life getting very expensive and un-affordable, again to the advantage of the elites and not the average people, red numbers are blissful, it means cheaper currency and living cost.

Increasing red numbers have a direct correlation to increased crime rates, corruption etc..

Lots of red numbers seen in Venezuela these days. Consider relocating there perhaps?

[craigt3365]

If the stock market vanished tomorrow, it would have a profound affect on every Thai person and the economy would go into a depression.

Large companies would find it extremely difficult to access capital. This will lead to a wave of bankruptcies. Next thing you know your local 7/11 will be empty as they cannot finance their inventory.

Just because the vast majority of Thais do not participate in the market or understand its function, does not mean its existence is not relevant to them.

I don't know any Thais that work for large companies. Most near me are self employed or work for local 2/3/4 man business.

7/11 is a bad thing, it drives the local mom and pop stores out of business, and takes profits out of the local community.

Big business is evil, it takes from the local community and reduces employment.

International business is the devil, it destroys countries and puts everything in the hands of international bankers.

The world would be a safer and more peaceful place if all international commerce was totally banned and every country ringed itself with barbed wire allowing none in or out.

Many from the villages are employed by various factories here in Thailand. Many.

Less than 10% are in agricultural. A huge percent work for others.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Thailand

[craigt3365]

I ve heard this saga of economy collapsing many times, yet it never happened, Cuba was under an economic embargo for 50 years, yet 95% of the people are happy, very healthy, slim, fit and don't eat the garbage poisonous foods that is full of carcinogens and additives, great fresh seafood and organic food, no Monsanto and its garbage, life expectancy very high, education levels match those of the developed world.

The British politicians tried to blackmail the Brits with lies that in case of brexit, doom day will fall, nothing happened so far, it s time for the people to wake up to stop believing the wallstreet banksters and new world order elites.

You've obviously never been to Cuba. It's nothing like that.

[slipperylobster]

As far as up North is concerned...

I could link to several articles headlining the fact that most families are in serious debt, from which they will never recover, but I think we all know, and seen this news. I was amazed how young kids were driving brand new cars, but their families were selling fried chicken, for income. Same with homes.

There are all sorts of ways for people to purchase cars and homes. If they do not qualify for a loan, somebody in the family will take it out for them. Most then take up with a money lender, when repossession is at stake. It is hard to find anyone that has ownership papers on any property/vehicle they supposedly own. A buyer in Udon (for example) would often be dealing with three parties..as the home/vehicle has been pawned out. Bank wants their money, Chinese money lenders want theirs, and the owner is still trying to get a profit.

Rent is ridiculously cheap, and does not generate enough income to pay back the owner's credit. (High interest from lenders).

The crises is similar to what happened back home, when almost anyone could get a home loan, but hardly anyone paid it back.

Yes....there is a crises, caused by the inability to pay off credit. There is almost no protection (Bankruptcy) for the low income. Many people go to court, and it takes years and years of mitigation....some are not paying a dime on their loans. They keep the loan alive by borrowing from Peter to pay Paul. On the third call out for repayment, they mitigate a low figure to keep it alive.

Edited July 21, 2016 by slipperylobster

[chiang mai]

A few things about consumer credit in Thailand:

Household debt has more than tripled in the past ten years up to 10.7 trill. baht, that's over 80% of nominal GDP - circa 50% of it on mortgages, 25% on credit cards and 25% on car loans. Much of that was prompted by government plans to stimulate the economy, some of it is even backed by government lending. In effect this is government trying to stimulate the economy and initiate a consumer driven recovery, similar to the UK in many respects except there, 85% of consumer debt is based on mortgage lending. The problem is that houses tend to increase in value over time so a mortgage can be viewed as an appreciating asset, car loans and credit card spending is the opposite and that's the problem, 50% of the personal credit is on depreciating loans. (NB: The PI and Indonesia have low household debt of around 8%, Malaysia is closer to Thailand at 85%).

Estimates are that loan shark repayments now account for over 60% of household income, 60%! So the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer, all at the behest of government and frequently with their assistance. Bank NPL's are up to circa 2.5%.

Difficult to see how this will play out, builders can build but the population can't afford to buy and there's already an oversupply and bank lending is getting tighter, L&H approval rates are down to 30%. Hopes seem to be pinned on a recovery in the West and in China, I wonder what plan B is!

[AlexRRR]

The whole wide world is in a similar situation, just ticking over, the very fact interest rates world wide are so low tells you everything you need to know.

The world economy is in the same position it was around 10 years after the great depression, that makes it 1938, you know what happened in 1939.

Do i think a world war will happen no i dont but there easily could be and if it did happen it will destroy a third of the world and then economies will start kicking into gear to rebuild everything.

Not really. The West is hanging in there. It's not great, but not terrible. Asia is tied to China. Which isn't doing great. Look at the results from Singapore lately. Not good. But with stats you can trust. Thailand is not doing well at all.

http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/singapore-non-oil-exports-fall-23-in-june

“With China’s deceleration being a structural one, the lackluster NODX performance could last for a while."

The world economy wasn't looking to bad in 1938 10 years after yet it was sluggish mostly, why does it look better today because governments have a vested interest in keeping there people happy hi color yv does a better job than the old black and white news reels too.

[thaibeachlovers]

• Thailand's homogeneous population causes less sectarian tensions, think about Mexico, Brazil or Salvador or the ghettos in Europe-USA where the state has to deploy the army and police to intervene frequently inside the favelas to keep orders (eg cituad Juarez oro sao Paulo).

Did you forget about the Southern separatists?

And the red shirts?

What about the Red Shirts?

There's nothing going on there, and I live up in the north.

[thaibeachlovers]

If the stock market vanished tomorrow, it would have a profound affect on every Thai person and the economy would go into a depression.

Large companies would find it extremely difficult to access capital. This will lead to a wave of bankruptcies. Next thing you know your local 7/11 will be empty as they cannot finance their inventory.

Just because the vast majority of Thais do not participate in the market or understand its function, does not mean its existence is not relevant to them.

I don't know any Thais that work for large companies. Most near me are self employed or work for local 2/3/4 man business.

7/11 is a bad thing, it drives the local mom and pop stores out of business, and takes profits out of the local community.

Big business is evil, it takes from the local community and reduces employment.

International business is the devil, it destroys countries and puts everything in the hands of international bankers.

The world would be a safer and more peaceful place if all international commerce was totally banned and every country ringed itself with barbed wire allowing none in or out.

Never been to Lamphun then? It is a factory town and thousands work for large companies.

Same would apply on the road from Bkk to Sri Racha which is lined with huge factories.

[thaibeachlovers]

The world economy is collapsing. Thailand is not immune to that.

Most Thais are completely immune to the world economy. They live hand to mouth and buy local produce. If the worst happens they are good at growing their own food and gathering from the jungle. Most of the Thais I have met are almost completely self sufficient, or they could be if needful. Their kids might not get a new tablet or phone, that's about their exposure to the world.

Quite right. If my wife couldn't get a job, the family house in the village has enough land to grow all the food she needs.

[thaibeachlovers]

Most Thais have never left the country, they don't care about the exchange rate.

This is a thread about how Thais are doing, not rich foreigners visiting Thailand.

There are wealth creators who build businesses that employ the rest, those businesses are the economy and those people care about exchange rates, the economy does not care, nor does it take a hit if Somchai closes his noodle shop for any reason.

Your reply seems to ignore the reality of most Thais that live in the countryside. They aren't employed by companies. The local farmer perhaps. Every company in Thailand could vanish tomorrow and it wouldn't affect their ability to feed themselves.

Of course they would miss their crap phones, but that would be a good thing.

[chiang mai]

Most Thais have never left the country, they don't care about the exchange rate.

This is a thread about how Thais are doing, not rich foreigners visiting Thailand.

There are wealth creators who build businesses that employ the rest, those businesses are the economy and those people care about exchange rates, the economy does not care, nor does it take a hit if Somchai closes his noodle shop for any reason.

Your reply seems to ignore the reality of most Thais that live in the countryside. They aren't employed by companies. The local farmer perhaps. Every company in Thailand could vanish tomorrow and it wouldn't affect their ability to feed themselves.

Of course they would miss their crap phones, but that would be a good thing.

Agriculture is in the doldrums and has been for two years or more, another couple of years of adverse weather conditions like last year and this and it could take a serious permanent hit. So the population is moving on into other activities, construction being the most notable increase, take a look at the indicators and you'll see what's in turned and what's going out:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/indicators

But back to your point about companies: rural farmers need somebody to sell to other than their neighbours or small scale native sales, CP, Tesco and the like spring to mind. Agricultural exports to Tesco for overseas sale are an important part of the exports figure and a contributor to GDP, Somchai growing some guava and rice does little more than sustain the population, subsistence farming basically. So yes, if all big business were to vanish tomorrow, the population would revert and continue to exist, the same could be argued of most countries however. But the debate is about the state of the economy here and whether it is collapsing and my post that you responded to above was about exchange rates where I said that big business does care about the foreign exchange rates, very much so.

[Jip99]

Most Thais have never left the country, they don't care about the exchange rate.

This is a thread about how Thais are doing, not rich foreigners visiting Thailand.

There are wealth creators who build businesses that employ the rest, those businesses are the economy and those people care about exchange rates, the economy does not care, nor does it take a hit if Somchai closes his noodle shop for any reason.

Your reply seems to ignore the reality of most Thais that live in the countryside. They aren't employed by companies. The local farmer perhaps. Every company in Thailand could vanish tomorrow and it wouldn't affect their ability to feed themselves.

Of course they would miss their crap phones, but that would be a good thing.

Agriculture is in the doldrums and has been for two years or more, another couple of years of adverse weather conditions like last year and this and it could take a serious permanent hit. So the population is moving on into other activities, construction being the most notable increase, take a look at the indicators and you'll see what's in turned and what's going out:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/indicators

But back to your point about companies: rural farmers need somebody to sell to other than their neighbours or small scale native sales, CP, Tesco and the like spring to mind. Agricultural exports to Tesco for overseas sale are an important part of the exports figure and a contributor to GDP, Somchai growing some guava and rice does little more than sustain the population, subsistence farming basically. So yes, if all big business were to vanish tomorrow, the population would revert and continue to exist, the same could be argued of most countries however. But the debate is about the state of the economy here and whether it is collapsing and my post that you responded to above was about exchange rates where I said that big business does care about the foreign exchange rates, very much so.

I believe that is the point; subsistence = subsistence. It always will, whether it rains too much - or not enough.

There has long been systematic control of 75% of the population in keeping them around the subsistence level. Occasional government support by way of rice price subsidy or 1,000 Baht per rai payments saves them taking a serious look at a proper welfare system. From the top down there is no incentive to improve the lot of the average Thai farmer.

It is these people in these communities that are the bulk of the Thai economy. These are the people that have been shackled by such things as the village loan scheme and by taking out private loans that they neither understand nor can repay.

[MissAndry]

• Thailand's homogeneous population causes less sectarian tensions, think about Mexico, Brazil or Salvador or the ghettos in Europe-USA where the state has to deploy the army and police to intervene frequently inside the favelas to keep orders (eg cituad Juarez oro sao Paulo).

Did you forget about the Southern separatists?

And the red shirts?

What about the Red Shirts?

There's nothing going on there, and I live up in the north.

My neighbors are rumouring a BIG event on 28th of this month.

If it happens, the economy might suddenly be much worse.

Edited July 22, 2016 by MissAndry

[marcofunny]

Increasing red numbers have a direct correlation to increased crime rates, corruption etc..

Lots of red numbers seen in Venezuela these days. Consider relocating there perhaps?

it s not true that poverty will increase crimes, Bhutan is very safe country, I used to travel to Cambodia and Laos during the 90s also very safe, the problem of Venezuela is different, the problem in Venezuela is racial problem, the other race is very lazy and jealous from the whites, got addicted to government welfare and subsidies, leftist ideology refuses to work hard, btw most whites opposes maduro (source: had a cousin traveled there, western media wont tell u this fact), you think of Venezuela exactly just like another Detroit with oil resources.

Edited July 22, 2016 by marcofunny

[thaibeachlovers]

Most Thais have never left the country, they don't care about the exchange rate.

This is a thread about how Thais are doing, not rich foreigners visiting Thailand.

There are wealth creators who build businesses that employ the rest, those businesses are the economy and those people care about exchange rates, the economy does not care, nor does it take a hit if Somchai closes his noodle shop for any reason.

Your reply seems to ignore the reality of most Thais that live in the countryside. They aren't employed by companies. The local farmer perhaps. Every company in Thailand could vanish tomorrow and it wouldn't affect their ability to feed themselves.

Of course they would miss their crap phones, but that would be a good thing.

Agriculture is in the doldrums and has been for two years or more, another couple of years of adverse weather conditions like last year and this and it could take a serious permanent hit. So the population is moving on into other activities, construction being the most notable increase, take a look at the indicators and you'll see what's in turned and what's going out:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/indicators

But back to your point about companies: rural farmers need somebody to sell to other than their neighbours or small scale native sales, CP, Tesco and the like spring to mind. Agricultural exports to Tesco for overseas sale are an important part of the exports figure and a contributor to GDP, Somchai growing some guava and rice does little more than sustain the population, subsistence farming basically. So yes, if all big business were to vanish tomorrow, the population would revert and continue to exist, the same could be argued of most countries however. But the debate is about the state of the economy here and whether it is collapsing and my post that you responded to above was about exchange rates where I said that big business does care about the foreign exchange rates, very much so.

Fair enough, but my thread is about small businesses not large companies.

the same could be argued of most countries however

Seriously! Most city dwellers these days would die because they lack any clue about actually growing food, and there isn't anywhere in western countries for them to live in the countryside anyway. Rural communities have been gutted by mechanisation, and the ones that do live there have guns and won't be slow to protect themselves from a plague of townies.

In NZ used to be that everyone knew or was related to a farmer and spent holidays on farms, now most have only seen a sheep from the car window.

[thaibeachlovers]

Increasing red numbers have a direct correlation to increased crime rates, corruption etc..

Lots of red numbers seen in Venezuela these days. Consider relocating there perhaps?

it s not true that poverty will increase crimes, Bhutan is very safe country, I used to travel to Cambodia and Laos during the 90s also very safe, the problem of Venezuela is different, the problem in Venezuela is racial problem, the other race is very lazy and jealous from the whites, got addicted to government welfare and subsidies, leftist ideology refuses to work hard, btw most whites opposes maduro (source: had a cousin traveled there, western media wont tell u this fact), you think of Venezuela exactly just like another Detroit with oil resources.

The problem is with government handouts. I doubt Bhutan gives handouts while in Venezuela the poor are used to being given stuff for nothing in return. Now the oil prices have collapsed, the money tree has dried up.

[chiang mai]

• Thailand's homogeneous population causes less sectarian tensions, think about Mexico, Brazil or Salvador or the ghettos in Europe-USA where the state has to deploy the army and police to intervene frequently inside the favelas to keep orders (eg cituad Juarez oro sao Paulo).

Did you forget about the Southern separatists?

And the red shirts?

What about the Red Shirts?

There's nothing going on there, and I live up in the north.

My neighbors are rumouring a BIG event on 28th of this month.

If it happens, the economy might suddenly be much worse.

I'm thinking a 50% discount sale at Big C, am I right, am I?

BTW, politics and civil unrest barely manage to dent the economy or the strength of THB so I wouldn't get too excited.

Edited July 22, 2016 by chiang mai

[marcofunny]

The problem is with government handouts. I doubt Bhutan gives handouts while in Venezuela the poor are used to being given stuff for nothing in return. Now the oil prices have collapsed, the money tree has dried up.

I ask you seriously have you been to any Favelas (south American ghetto) in Brazil or Venezuela ?? check the rate of criminality of Caracas and who are most of the murderers.

Edited July 22, 2016 by marcofunny

[chiang mai]

The subject/topic is Thailand, not SA!

[craigt3365]

Most Thais have never left the country, they don't care about the exchange rate.

This is a thread about how Thais are doing, not rich foreigners visiting Thailand.

There are wealth creators who build businesses that employ the rest, those businesses are the economy and those people care about exchange rates, the economy does not care, nor does it take a hit if Somchai closes his noodle shop for any reason.

Your reply seems to ignore the reality of most Thais that live in the countryside. They aren't employed by companies. The local farmer perhaps. Every company in Thailand could vanish tomorrow and it wouldn't affect their ability to feed themselves.

Of course they would miss their crap phones, but that would be a good thing.

You are correct. But most Thai families have one, or many, family members who work in Bangkok or a factory somewhere. They send money home, take care of the parents, kids they've left in the village. It's the reason for the mass exodus from Bangkok to Issan during the major holidays! I've seen several buses come in full of people working in Bangkok and returning to their home in the village. I'm talking about a really small farming village in the middle of nowhere!

[craigt3365]

Interesting article in the Bangkok Post today about farmers defaulting on their debts.