Polls show divided America with Democrats viewed more favorably after convention

[Gary A]

I'm too old to get upset about a country full of corrupt politicians. Like it or not, the entire system has fallen apart. What happened to politicians who thought about the country rather than their bank accounts. Obviously they no longer exist. 

 

The liberals should think about one important thing. Don't worry about the country, worry about what the future will bring your children and grandchildren. The huge bloated government and the massive spending of money that doesn't exist except for the printing of funny money has to end sometime. Hopefully the system won't implode until I am dead and gone. I don't want to watch it happen.  I do worry about my grandchildren trying to pick up the pieces.

 

Never before, at least in my lifetime, have I seen a more inept selfish group of politicians than exist today. That includes the sad presidential candidates.

[Ulysses G.]

3 hours ago, CaptHaddock said:

I think there is a 50% chance Trump will drop out rather than be humiliated by Clinton in the debates.

 

There is a pretty good chance that he will humiliate HER. He has a pretty good track record when it comes to debates and she has plenty of weaknesses for him to capitalize on.

[ilostmypassword]

1 minute ago, Ulysses G. said:

 

There is a pretty good chance that he will humiliate HER. He has a pretty good track record when it comes to debates and she has plenty of weaknesses for him to capitalize on.

There is almost no chance at all that he will humiliate her.  In the Republican debates there were so many candidates that it was impossible to focus on the issues. It was perfect for Trump's hit and run sty le.But in a one on one debate the questions will force candidates to go into a lot more details.  Which means that they have to have knowledge of the issues at hand.   Trump knows this which is why he's kicking up a groundless fuss about the debates.

[Ulysses G.]

Don't count your chickens. Hillary has lot more vulnerabilities than the candidates he defeated already.

[CaptHaddock]

57 minutes ago, Ulysses G. said:

Don't count your chickens. Hillary has lot more vulnerabilities than the candidates he defeated already.

 

Curren electoral vote project by Princeton Election Consortium (which went 50 for 50 in 2012):
 

HRC 334   DT 204

[Publicus]

7 hours ago, CaptHaddock said:

 

Curren electoral vote project by Princeton Election Consortium (which went 50 for 50 in 2012):
 

HRC 334   DT 204

 

With due respect to the fellows at Princeton, Trump won't reach 200 Electoral College votes. 

 

Trump is already averaging in the mid 30s popular vote percentage. Most states he'll carry have fewer than 10 ECVs (Texas being the exception with 38 ECVs). Most of those have 5 ECVs or 3 ECVs. HRC conversely will get every ECV big state except that one, TX. 

 

The Clinton campaign is presently moving resources into solid red states where she is leading, such as Georgia, North Carolina, Missouri, while Arizona is exceptionally tight between 'em but the Clinton campaign is moving in there too. Trump is doing nothing that amounts to an election campaign.

 

Going in to the first debate September 26th Trump will have been out of it for more than a month. He's got to squirm out of at least the 2nd and the 3rd third debates for reasons we know and that have been articulated at the thread. The first debate September 26th is at Hofstra University in NYC so Trump will be hard pressed not to attend that one. The other two debates are problematic for Trump, with the chances of Trump attending either or both being slim to none and slim has already left town.

 

(October 9th at Washington University in St. Louis...October 19th in Las Vegas where btw HRC is the hugely odds-on favorite.)

[CaptHaddock]

9 hours ago, Publicus said:

 

With due respect to the fellows at Princeton, Trump won't reach 200 Electoral College votes. 

 

Trump is already averaging in the mid 30s popular vote percentage. Most states he'll carry have fewer than 10 ECVs (Texas being the exception with 38 ECVs). Most of those have 5 ECVs or 3 ECVs. HRC conversely will get every ECV big state except that one, TX. 

 

The Clinton campaign is presently moving resources into solid red states where she is leading, such as Georgia, North Carolina, Missouri, while Arizona is exceptionally tight between 'em but the Clinton campaign is moving in there too. Trump is doing nothing that amounts to an election campaign.

 

Going in to the first debate September 26th Trump will have been out of it for more than a month. He's got to squirm out of at least the 2nd and the 3rd third debates for reasons we know and that have been articulated at the thread. The first debate September 26th is at Hofstra University in NYC so Trump will be hard pressed not to attend that one. The other two debates are problematic for Trump, with the chances of Trump attending either or both being slim to none and slim has already left town.

 

(October 9th at Washington University in St. Louis...October 19th in Las Vegas where btw HRC is the hugely odds-on favorite.)

 

Could be.  I think the question in Trump's mind about the debates is whether he can get away with derailing substantive discussion with his usual bluster.  But it won't be like the Republican debates, so he won't be able to play his act.  I don't expect him to show up even for one debate.    She's certain to humiliate him and he knows it.  He'll come up with some bullshit reason.

 

As you know popular vote polls don't matter.  Only the states count.  I'll stick with PEC although electoral-vote.com, another excellent poll aggregator site, currently has it as HRC 353  DT 179 with 6 ties.

 

So, DT will go down in flames.  It is also looking good for Democrat control of the Senate.  Here's PEC's probability distribution of Senate outcomes.

 

[linksman00]

Interesting update on the Presidential race polling:  yesterday(8/11/2016) Reuters poll had Clinton up by 5% and Rasmussen had her up by 3%  and today the LA Times(a left leaning newspaper)/USC poll had Hillary up by only 1%. Considering that  the Clinton machine has already spent tens of millions of Dollars  on attack ads against Trump, while Trump has yet to begin his TV ad spending these are some really interesting numbers.  The electorates distrust of Hillary will continue to grow as scandals about the Clinton foundation  keep coming forward and I do think that Mr. Assange has plenty that he is holding back just waiting to make public   Now I'll let our resident left wing radicals have at it,  c'mon there boys lets hear more about Hillarys landslide

[Publicus]

 

The right's long list of hopes to bring down one Clinton and now the other has one scratched concoction after the other, dozens of 'em, from Whitewater which amounted to nothing to Ben Ghazi to whatever it is now, i.e., Putin and Assange trying to influence and redirect the election of the Potus.

 

Former acting director of CIA who'd been the long time deputy director said Trump is the "unwitting" agent of Vladimir Putin. Assange is owned by Putin.

 

The rightwhingenoids always side with Russia and Putin anyway and the American people know this. Some like it, the vast majority of us strongly disapprove of betrayal or of sleeping with the enemy.

[otherstuff1957]

In order for Trump to win two things have to happen:

 

1. Clinton goes down in flames, either because Assange has an "October surprise" up his sleeve and releases it just before the vote; or Clinton has a stroke or some other health problem between now and Nov. 11.

 

2.  Trump stops saying stupid things.

 

#1 is unlikely and #2 is definitely not going to happen.

 

[CaptHaddock]

4 hours ago, linksman00 said:

Interesting update on the Presidential race polling:  yesterday(8/11/2016) Reuters poll had Clinton up by 5% and Rasmussen had her up by 3%  and today the LA Times(a left leaning newspaper)/USC poll had Hillary up by only 1%. Considering that  the Clinton machine has already spent tens of millions of Dollars  on attack ads against Trump, while Trump has yet to begin his TV ad spending these are some really interesting numbers.  The electorates distrust of Hillary will continue to grow as scandals about the Clinton foundation  keep coming forward and I do think that Mr. Assange has plenty that he is holding back just waiting to make public   Now I'll let our resident left wing radicals have at it,  c'mon there boys lets hear more about Hillarys landslide

 

National polls are interesting for the uninformed.  The rest of us have known for a long time that presidents are elected by the Electoral College, not a popular vote.  Current best estimates are:

 

Clinton 342  Trump 196      Princeton Election Consortium

Clinton 353   Trump 179     electoral-vote.com

 

I'll hang my hat on those numbers.  The right-wingnuts can boast about crowd attendance as much as they wish.

Edited August 13, 2016 by CaptHaddock
truncated

[keemapoot]

7 minutes ago, otherstuff1957 said:

In order for Trump to win two things have to happen:

 

1. Clinton goes down in flames, either because Assange has an "October surprise" up his sleeve and releases it just before the vote; or Clinton has a stroke or some other health problem between now and Nov. 11.

 

2.  Trump stops saying stupid things.

 

#1 is unlikely and #2 is definitely not going to happen.

 

 

I agree with you. This deflection about voter fraud, which Trump is now trumpeting in Pennsylvania is just a diversion. There is very little voter fraud as one would expect in any western democracy. But, it's pretty evident how Trump is setting up his excuse for a potential landslide loss.

[Publicus]

3 hours ago, keemapoot said:

 

I agree with you. This deflection about voter fraud, which Trump is now trumpeting in Pennsylvania is just a diversion. There is very little voter fraud as one would expect in any western democracy. But, it's pretty evident how Trump is setting up his excuse for a potential landslide loss.

 

To try to delegitimise the election of Hilary Clinton as Potus.

 

Same as Trump and Republicans who are anyway rightwhingenuts worked so insanely to try to delegitimise the Barack Obama presidency. 

 

It is dangerous Trump is a radical crackpot wildman but it is injurious to the Constitution and the stability of the political and social system that Trump is compulsively malicious and malevolent. 

 

[ilostmypassword]

4 hours ago, CaptHaddock said:

 

National polls are interesting for the uninformed.  The rest of us have known for a long time that presidents are elected by the Electoral College, not a popular vote.  Current best estimates are:

 

Clinton 342  Trump 196      Princeton Election Consortium

Clinton 353   Trump 179     electoral-vote.com

 

I'll hang my hat on those numbers.  The right-wingnuts can boast about crowd attendance as much as they wish.

The best numbers are the state polls. Because they drill down a lot deeper.  Or they're more granular, Or whatever.  The serious regular polling of the states has just started. So far, it does look good for Clinton.

[linksman00]

14 hours ago, Publicus said:

 

The right's long list of hopes to bring down one Clinton and now the other has one scratched concoction after the other, dozens of 'em, from Whitewater which amounted to nothing to Ben Ghazi to whatever it is now, i.e., Putin and Assange trying to influence and redirect the election of the Potus.

 

Former acting director of CIA who'd been the long time deputy director said Trump is the "unwitting" agent of Vladimir Putin. Assange is owned by Putin.

 

The rightwhingenoids always side with Russia and Putin anyway and the American people know this. Some like it, the vast majority of us strongly disapprove of betrayal or of sleeping with the enemy.

Ah yes more delusions from our left wing radicals  The Clintons do indeed  have a long list of scandals and they have been more slimy and slippery than a good teflon frying pan at deflecting them.  The corrupt Clinton foundation may be their undoing though, it was clearly set up for influence peddling.  I'm not sure why you fellows on the far left always bring up Putin, or why your delusional little minds think that conservatives like Putin, but then it's that goofy liberal mindset always seeing the world with blinders on and regurgitating things that you heard on the leftwing nut blogosphere.  The information and leaked emails coming out about Hillarys corruption and incompetence is not propaganda , but merely things that Hillary and Bill have done that are finally coming to light thanks to people like Assange.  We  will see what unfolds in the Clinton saga over the coming weeks,  but whatever does comes to light, it is not Trumps fault, Putins fault or Assanges fault, the blame for all the corruption and underhanded dealings is all the Clintons fault.  I do not know if Assange is owned by Putin as you put it, but I do know that Hillary is owned by Wall Street

[Ulysses G.]

14 hours ago, otherstuff1957 said:

In order for Trump to win two things have to happen:

 

1. Clinton goes down in flames, either because Assange has an "October surprise" up his sleeve and releases it just before the vote; or Clinton has a stroke or some other health problem between now and Nov. 11.

 

2.  Trump stops saying stupid things.

 

 

Two more possibilities.

 

3. Trump completely trounces her in the debates.

 

4.  There is a major terrorist attack in America.

 

Neither of these is impossible.

[iReason]

^^^ @Post 166 UG

 

3. Is impossible.

 

4. Is purely whacked, crackpot, fatalistic gibberish.

 

 

Dunning Kruger.

 

[Diplomatico]

8 hours ago, Ulysses G. said:

 

Two more possibilities.

 

3. Trump completely trounces her in the debates.

 

4.  There is a major terrorist attack in America.

 

Neither of these is impossible.

 

  5.  The FBI investigates the Clinton Foundation, currently underway.  

 

  http://dailycaller.com/2016/08/11/exclusive-joint-fbi-us-attorney-probe-of-clinton-foundation-is-underway/

 

  Both of these candidates suck and neither should be elected to the Presidency.  Clinton should  be in jail, Trump should be back in his cocoon.  

 

  What a cr@pfest this is.  

[tomwct]

My bets on the Republicans winning across the board! More corruption will continue to be revealed on the Socialist Democrats Agenda.

Don't listen to the Lame Duck Media because they will be the losers when the results are confirmed. There is a "Silent Majority" who haven't voted in years, but they will this year! Also, lets not forget the debates. No way Hillary will survive the debates with Trump! She looks like she may have a "stroke" anytime! God Bless America and the hell with PC! Vote Trump!

[Scott]

A post violating Fair Use Policy has been removed.  

 

[iReason]

Boo hoo.

You made your bed Donnie...

 

Trump blames 'disgusting' media: 'I would be beating Hillary by 20'

 

"In a series of tweets Sunday morning, Donald Trump launched a new tirade against the media, calling it "disgusting" and blaming it for his drop in polls."

"His latest tweet storm first targeted the New York Times, which published an article Saturday about the GOP nominee's allegedly failing campaign, but quickly expanded as an indictment of the media in general."

"In the article, colleagues who spoke on the condition of anonymity called Trump "exhausted, frustrated and

still bewildered by fine points of the political process."  

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/trump-on-nyt-their-reporting-is-fiction-226988

 

[JHolmesJr]

One thing is for sure…..this will be the election with the lowest turnout in history.

 

So if crooked hillary wins, she won't exactly have the enthusiastic backing of the electorate…just her brainwashed zombie followers.

 

 

[Ulysses G.]

Do not forget the MSM. They will distort what is actually happening and enable whatever she wants to do - like they did with Obama.

Edited August 14, 2016 by Ulysses G.

[Publicus]

20 minutes ago, JHolmesJr said:

One thing is for sure…..this will be the election with the lowest turnout in history.

 

So if crooked hillary wins, she won't exactly have the enthusiastic backing of the electorate…just her brainwashed zombie followers.

 

 

 

Wrong again because it's elementary (with apologies to Sherlock).

 

The greater the difference between the two candidates for Potus, the greater the turnout of voters. The reason is that people see the grand differences between the two so they want to be sure they get their vote in.

 

This is a huge difference election so Trump is going to get really routed on election day by huge numbers of voters going to the polls. Really huge. Really crushed. Nuked.

 

The 2000 election for instance indicated the opposite side of the principle. Voters saw so little difference between GW and Al Gore the turnout was low and the voting was close nationally, not just in Florida. The differences in that election were so paltry that the marginal Ralph Nader got enough of his few votes to cause chaos in the FL vote total and vote count. The Bush Mafia with Jeb as governor took full advantage of it.

 

Reagan in 1980 ran Carter out on a rail and four years later in '84 Reagan won 49 states against the sleepwalking Walter Mondale in his Thom McAn shoes. In 1992 Perot was so different (bizarre) from GHW Bush and Bill Clinton he got 19% of the popular vote (no states and no electoral college votes however) in a strong voter participation (of a lotta whackjobs).

 

With 270 Electoral College votes to win, GW Bush in 2000 got 271 ECV. The 51.2% national voter participation was one of the very lows in Potus election history. This one this year is going to be a whopper and Trump is going to get whopped and whipped.

 

In this election, with the standard 270 ECV needed to win, by the time the polls close at 8 pm in the Eastern Time Zone states, HRC will have accumulated 227 Electoral College Votes. By the time the polls close in the Central Time Zone states, at 9 pm Eastern Time, HRC will have won the election with a total of 295 Electoral College Votes.

 

After the states of the Mountain Time Zone close their polls at 10 pm Eastern Time, and the states of the Pacific Time Zone close their polls at 11 pm Eastern Time, HRC will have won 392 ECV.

 

If all does not go "well," the final ECV count would be no fewer than 360. Good and nice neat number anyhow.

[Publicus]

 

In 2012, the total number of valid votes cast was 126 million (spoiled ballots discounted, blank ballots do actually get returned etc but these numbers are infinitesimal ).

 

Barack got 65.5 m and Mitt got 60.5 m. Voter participation was 55% in an election President Obama was projected to win comfortably. (Only four states were decided by fewer than 5% of the vote in each of those states, so the outcome was in fact predictable.) President Obama won 26 states and the District of Columbia, Romney won 24 states. Obama got 51.1% of the vote and 332 ECV, Romney got 47.2% of the vote and 206 ECV.

 

In this election upwards of 130 million will vote and that is because of the high visibility of the candidates and the spectacular nature of the campaigns.

 

If HRC wins 46% of the estimated 130 m voters, she will receive the raw popular vote of 59.8 million. If Trump gets 36% of the raw unpopular vote, he will get stuck with only 46.8 million votes. That would be twice President Obama's margin of victory in 2012 and then some.

 

(Recall the radical Republican Sen Barry Goldwater in his landslide 1964 loss to LBJ got 38.7% of the unpopular vote, won six states and 52 ECV. Trump will not do as "well" as Goldwater in the unpopular raw vote or in the percentage of the total vote, for sure. No chance either Trump will see 200 ECV come his way.)

 

Not only will the creek rise on Trump, the wall of the damn is going to collapse [sic].

[Publicus]

On 8/13/2016 at 0:09 PM, keemapoot said:

 

I agree with you. This deflection about voter fraud, which Trump is now trumpeting in Pennsylvania is just a diversion. There is very little voter fraud as one would expect in any western democracy. But, it's pretty evident how Trump is setting up his excuse for a potential landslide loss.

 

Trump is also and plainly trying to intimidate Democratic party voters nationally.

 

By talking about a stolen election by crooked Hillary, he is encouraging Nazi and KKK groups, among many other radical crazy wingnut groups -- which we well know to be armed and dangerous in everyday life, never mind an election in which Donald Trump is fatally doomed -- to show up at polling stations across the country.

 

Not necessarily at every one of the thousands of polling stations in the 50 states (and in DC), but at any one of 'em anywhere -- in the states especially that have black voters and other voters of minority groups. After all, with all those "illegals" enabled to vote by the evil wicked Democrats and other leftwing liberal anti-American progressives, someone has to protect the "integrity" of the electoral process and the white nutcase man.

 

Never mind either that Putin-Assange-Wikileaks are trying their damndest to throw the election -- to Trump of course. That has no meaning to the armband torchlight right which anyway worships Putin as a real leader, the kind of leader the 2016 Republican party is trying its damndest to gift and deliver to America (and the world).

[Publicus]

Post deleted by Publicus

Edited August 14, 2016 by Publicus
Duplicate post deleted due to an outside third party interception of the post which made the intended technical mess

[Publicus]

Deleted by Publicus due to an outside third party interference to make the intended technical mess.

Edited August 14, 2016 by Publicus
Deleted due to an outside third party malicious activity

[Publicus]

 

Deleted by Publicus as indicated.

Edited August 14, 2016 by Publicus

[Publicus]

 

Deleted by Publicus due to reason as indicated.

Edited August 14, 2016 by Publicus