Do EXPATS have a future in Thailand 20 years from now?

[JJGreen]

What's the future for expats here?

 

Thailand isn't cheap to live and visas can be a hassle

 

There is increasing xenophobia such as the sim card tracking.

Increasing unexplained deaths and scams against foreigners.

 

Things here going to be getting increasingly betterms in 20 years time?

 

Will visas be made.easier and land ownership for retirees allowed.

 

Asia has a burgeoning middle class with changed attitudes amd more worldliness so where does the humble expat farang fit in?

 

My biggest concerns are visa related and climate change related

[canuckamuck]

The temperature has gone up half a degree in 100 years. So climate wise you're going to be safe longer than you will live. 

 

As far as Expats in Thailand are concerned, it is impossible to say. Thailand has manged to make feudalism work well into the 21'st century. But history shows us that fuedalism often ends in a brutal mess. Conditions will change in the next decades and it is anybody's guess how things are going to go. If nothing dramatic occurs and things continue as they have for the last 70 years or so. There is still the fact that many of the reasons to be in Thailand are disappearing. You really have to ask yourself if this is where you want to be 20 years from now?

[villagefarang]

Having lived here for forty years I have heard many forecasts of gloom and doom about the future of Thailand.  Thailand has changed but so have I.  You may be able to freeze time with a photo but in real life everything is changing all the time.  

I have never had a problem adapting to change in Thailand and despite the negative forecasts there are more foreigners here now than there were when I first arrived.  In 20 years I will be in my 80s and my physical health at that point is of more interest than the overall state of Thailand.  Thailand has always been easy for me so I am not worried about myself and as for others, they will figure it out one way or another.

[BudRight]

17 minutes ago, villagefarang said:

Having lived here for forty years I have heard many forecasts of gloom and doom about the future of Thailand.  Thailand has changed but so have I.  You may be able to freeze time with a photo but in real life everything is changing all the time.  

I have never had a problem adapting to change in Thailand and despite the negative forecasts there are more foreigners here now than there were when I first arrived.  In 20 years I will be in my 80s and my physical health at that point is of more interest than the overall state of Thailand.  Thailand has always been easy for me so I am not worried about myself and as for others, they will figure it out one way or another.

 

There are looming challenges that make the next forty unlikely to be like the last forty. I can't be specific due to Thai law.

 

One can be optimistic about those challenges, but I am not.

[Dexlowe]

I'm not going to enjoy writing this post. But I have been experiencing a lot of antipathy towards me of late (not personal - towards all white western males). I live on the darkside of Pattaya - about 20 mins on the motorbike to Beach Rd. When I first moved here (and in the preceding couple of years), I thought this area was quite cool as it was fairly quiet and the people were friendly. Fast forward 5 years and I'm beginning to feel unwelcome, both on the darkside and in the Pattaya/Jomtien area. Whereas young Thais were mostly indifferent towards you in the past, now there is quite open disdain - even hostility in some cases. Of course, there are still many lovely Thai people around whom I enjoy meeting as I go about my daily chores. But the level of indifference/disdain/resentment is growing ever stronger - it's not my imagination, it's very palpable. I've lived in Thailand for 3 decades, so I think I have a reasonable "handle" on local conditions. 

 

So, how does this answer the OP's question? Unfortunately, I shall not be around to find out as I intend leaving soon. Part of my reason for going home (apart from wanting to spend my remaining years with family) is that I don't feel quite as comfortable as I did here, even going back just 5 years. There is a lot I still enjoy about living on the darkside, but I fear that the next time some young smart-asp decides to "buzz" the farang on his motorcycle (and put my life in danger) to prove he's the superior Thai male, then I might just snap. And get the sh1t kicked out of me. I can't live in a village like Mr VF above (sorry, mate - I'm a city slicker  ). So I don't see a comfortable or relaxed lifestyle ahead for us WWMs (white western males) in my area - and it's that lifestyle that I desire in my retirement.

[Alive]

Maybe the temperature hasn't risen much but the rain certainly is less. If you live in Thailand, make sure you have water. Thailand's working classes are making more money and many are rural people. These young people are often building homes in their home villages which are already near max for water supply. If the droughts continue certain areas will have much larger water problems than others, especially those in the northeast which are a distance from large water supplies.

 

As for xenophobia, yes it is on the rise in Thailand and other places. Hate and fear by groups create polar opposites so I see the world seeing more overall. But something is going to have to happen here are there are so many mixed folks in this society. Eventually the mentality of the establishment here which can be see in the group now in power and its supporters, will have to change or else there will be conflict. Thailand is a diverse nation of mixed peoples now especially the cities where foreigners have had a long influence. Nationalism and patriotism are going to have to mean something different to the traditional military/BKK ruling class.

 

As for prices, well that's capitalism and expected. Only something really major and lasting in this society can bring prices down again.

 

Foreigners need better treatment as most of their nations give it to Thais in their land. This might be slow coming as most Thais themselves are treated as second-class citizens by the elite Thais who have always controlled this nation.

[Dexlowe]

PS (to the above): For the most part, I still think Thailand is fairly safe, if you factor out the seamy side of Pattaya (which doesn't affect me). But of late, I'm getting a nagging sense of disquiet in the back reaches of my mind about my personal safety. It's not up front, just sitting in the shadows, lurking, and I can't dismiss it. I haven't got to the stage where I'm getting twitchy, but nevertheless, this thought now exists where it didn't 5 years ago. I sincerely hope that in 20 years time this marginal snippet of alarm hasn't manifested into something more real.

[LannaGuy]

9 minutes ago, Dexlowe said:

I'm not going to enjoy writing this post. But I have been experiencing a lot of antipathy towards me of late (not personal - towards all white western males). I live on the darkside of Pattaya - about 20 mins on the motorbike to Beach Rd. When I first moved here (and in the preceding couple of years), I thought this area was quite cool as it was fairly quiet and the people were friendly. Fast forward 5 years and I'm beginning to feel unwelcome, both on the darkside and in the Pattaya/Jomtien area. Whereas young Thais were mostly indifferent towards you in the past, now there is quite open disdain - even hostility in some cases. Of course, there are still many lovely Thai people around whom I enjoy meeting as I go about my daily chores. But the level of indifference/disdain/resentment is growing ever stronger - it's not my imagination, it's very palpable. I've lived in Thailand for 3 decades, so I think I have a reasonable "handle" on local conditions. 

 

So, how does this answer the OP's question? Unfortunately, I shall not be around to find out as I intend leaving soon. Part of my reason for going home (apart from wanting to spend my remaining years with family) is that I don't feel quite as comfortable as I did here, even going back just 5 years. There is a lot I still enjoy about living on the darkside, but I fear that the next time some young smart-asp decides to "buzz" the farang on his motorcycle (and put my life in danger) to prove he's the superior Thai male, then I might just snap. And get the sh1t kicked out of me. I can't live in a village like Mr VF above (sorry, mate - I'm a city slicker  ). So I don't see a comfortable or relaxed lifestyle ahead for us WWMs (white western males) in my area - and it's that lifestyle that I desire in my retirement.

 

come north to Chiang Mai... it's changing but nowhere near as much as BKK/Pattaya and I always head back here after my forays down your neck of the woods and I think that distinction will continue to grow

Edited August 11, 2016 by LannaGuy

[villagefarang]

15 minutes ago, BudRight said:

 

There are looming challenges that make the next forty unlikely to be like the last forty. I can't be specific due to Thai law.

 

One can be optimistic about those challenges, but I am not.

Of course the next forty won’t be anything like the last forty, that goes without saying.  The thing is, some people always worry about change and others just adapt.  I don’t worry about changing the weather, I just change my apparel to something more appropriate.  

People have been debating what happens after, for as long as I can remember and still no one knows with any certainty, though some are certain in their own minds it will be bad.

 

#Dexlowe For thirty years I was a city slicker, too, living in Bangkok.  I haven’t suddenly become a hillbilly by virtue of moving to a more beautiful environment.  I am simply adapting to my changing needs and desires, just as you are by leaving.

[cyberfarang]

I personally think that 20 years into the future as far as expats are concerned moving to Thailand is going to be reserved for the idle rich, especially for those on retirement who get their incomes from abroad.

 

The banking financial system is going to change, exchange rates between the baht and other currencies are going to be low, could drop to under 20 baht to the £1. Thai bank interest rates maybe less than 1% as in the UK at the moment. The married to a Thai spouse and retirement stays present amounts of 400000 baht and 800000 baht will certainly increase within the next 20 years with a chance of grandfathering being discontinued. Inflation and the cost of living expenditure could increase 5 fold or even more as it has done in the last 20 years.

 

I doubt the immigration rules will change too much, it`s going to be finance that will determine who can afford to stay here and who can`t.

 

 

[BudRight]

32 minutes ago, Alive said:

As for prices, well that's capitalism and expected. Only something really major and lasting in this society can bring prices down again.

 

It's actually not capitalism, it's protectionism that have caused price increases. Tearing down trade barriers would be politically impossible though I'm afraid - Thais just don't like competition.

[JJGreen]

25 minutes ago, cyberfarang said:

I personally think that 20 years into the future as far as expats are concerned moving to Thailand is going to be reserved for the idle rich, especially for those on retirement who get their incomes from abroad.

 

The banking financial system is going to change, exchange rates between the baht and other currencies are going to be low, could drop to under 20 baht to the £1. Thai bank interest rates maybe less than 1% as in the UK at the moment. The married to a Thai spouse and retirement stays present amounts of 400000 baht and 800000 baht will certainly increase within the next 20 years with a chance of grandfathering being discontinued. Inflation and the cost of living expenditure could increase 5 fold or even more as it has done in the last 20 years.

 

I doubt the immigration rules will change too much, it`s going to be finance that will determine who can afford to stay here and who can`t.

 

 

 

20 baht to the pound? What is the lowest historically? 

[1FinickyOne]

I am always amused at the "difficulties" people seem to find in visas, being an expat here. It takes me a couple of hours a year at the Immigration office, and 3 trips to the post office to mail in the 90 day forms... I think if you legitimately qualify, it is rather easy - - - compare the qualifications for us retiring here to a Thai wanting to go live in the West... I think we are getting off very very easily. 

 

I have never been at a point in life or a place where I thought there would no longer be change. 

 

I think that the fact that it is so much easier and yes, cheaper to live here has brought some people who can no longer afford to live in the West. Could it get tight for people on limited income? Absolutely. But it can get tight in Tuscaloosa too... I think many elderly in the West are having problems financially. 

[happynthailand]

you know in 20 years ,I'll most likely just be ash's,so don't really care what they

 

think of me or whats going on here

 

but had one Hell of a good time while I was here,before I was turned into ash's,you can bet your ass on that

Edited August 11, 2016 by happynthailand
add more to port

[Denim]

10 minutes ago, JJGreen said:

 

20 baht to the pound? What is the lowest historically? 

 

I've been here when it was only 26.

That was when the baht was tied even more closely to the dollar and one pound only got you a dollar.

 

Talk about belt tightening ........ My eyes nearly popped out.

[MissAndry]

Will anyone be left alive in 20 years? Looking that far in the future is totally pointless and totally unpredictable. If I were to guess what would happen to me in 20 years time, my guess would be I'd be dead by then so it wouldn't matter. If I went back in time 20 years would I have been able to predict being single and living in Thailand ..... not in my wildest dreams.

Edited August 11, 2016 by MissAndry

[MissAndry]

44 minutes ago, cyberfarang said:

The banking financial system is going to change, exchange rates between the baht and other currencies are going to be low, could drop to under 20 baht to the £1. Thai bank interest rates maybe less than 1% as in the UK at the moment. The married to a Thai spouse and retirement stays present amounts of 400000 baht and 800000 baht will certainly increase within the next 20 years with a chance of grandfathering being discontinued. Inflation and the cost of living expenditure could increase 5 fold or even more as it has done in the last 20 years.

 

Here we have the exact prediction silliness that I mentioned in my previous post. A Thai interest rate of 1% would reduce the value of the Thai baht to around 60bht = 1gbp. No other economic considerations required. A more likely prediction would be Thailand would go the way of Cambodia under Pol Pot, with all foreigners being excluded or killed, and half the Thai population being culled.

Edited August 11, 2016 by MissAndry

[55Jay]

Those who are in their 30s right now will be saying the very same things when they reach their 60s and 70s.    I'm only in my late 40s and I'm already feeling a bit behind the power curve, and I recognize it's because I'm no longer working, out in the big bad world, keeping abreast of changing styles, tech, lingo and attitudes.  Once you slow down and begin viewing the world through the narrow lens of the internet and television, it can seem a bit overwhelming, as if the whole world is going into full and total melt down.  

 

The normal reaction seems to be that we pull our necks further into our protective shells, becoming more detached, cynical and judgemental as the world continues to march on without us.    Next thing you know, you're your grandfather.

 

One remedy is travel.  You've got to get out there to maintain perspective.   Mrs and I try to get out of Thailand once a year for a couple of months.  I thoroughly enjoy these trips and a by-product of them seems to be a re-appreciation of the little things I enjoy living here in Thailand. 

[MissAndry]

1 minute ago, 55Jay said:

One remedy is travel.  You've got to get out there to maintain perspective.   Mrs and I try to get out of Thailand once a year for a couple of months.  I thoroughly enjoy these trips and a by-product of them seems to be a re-appreciation of the little things I enjoy living here in Thailand. 

 

Only once a year? I try to get out once a month!

[guzzi850m2]

The whole world might have gone to hell in 20 years time, 3rd WW, climate change gone out of control, volcanic outbreak making it impossible for most species to live/survive.

 

Gloom and doom maybe but it's impossible to say how Thailand/ the World looks 20 years ahead.

 

 

[Chapelroad]

In 20 years time, I might have got used to the Thaivisa upgrade 

[MissAndry]

2 minutes ago, guzzi850m2 said:

The whole world might have gone to hell in 20 years time, 3rd WW, climate change gone out of control, volcanic outbreak making it impossible for most species to live/survive.

 

I'm putting my money on alien invasion or (fast) zombie apocalypse.

Edited August 11, 2016 by MissAndry

[ezzra]

 

This kind of topics makes a lot of use out what once was and what if,

and since no one has a crystal ball to gaze into and tell the future ,

all we can do if be philosophical about it and just roll the dice, we always

have the luxury of getting up and move away, something the locals can't

readily do.....

[thai3]

59 minutes ago, Denim said:

 

I've been here when it was only 26.

That was when the baht was tied even more closely to the dollar and one pound only got you a dollar.

 

Talk about belt tightening ........ My eyes nearly popped out.

 

What year was this?  8 baht to the pound was it's lowest ever in the 19th c

[Kwasaki]

Well OP just my take on the previous 15 years dunno about another 20 who does :-

 

What's the future for expats here?..........Ans.  Good guys in bad guys out.  

 

Thailand isn't cheap to live and visas can be a hassle.....Ans.    Disagree with both,  l am better of here than UK depends where you live and your circumstances.

 

There is increasing xenophobia such as the sim card tracking. ..Ans.  Lots of silly things are suggested by people, they have to be seen that they are about. 

 

Increasing unexplained deaths and scams against foreigners.  Ans.  Oh yeah everyone knows that only happens in Thailand.  

 

Things here going to be getting increasingly betterms in 20 years time?  What's betterms.?

 

Will visas be made.easier and land ownership for retirees allowed.  Ans.. No problem with visas for most as said....No opinion on land ownership myself,  you can lease land up to 30 years if you want as a retiree. 

 

Asia has a burgeoning middle class with changed attitudes and more worldliness so where does the humble expat farang fit in?.......Ans.   Don't understand the question.  

 

My biggest concerns are visa related and climate change related..  Ans.  Thinking on that myself they wouldn't be my concerns at all.  

Edited August 11, 2016 by Kwasaki

[chiang mai]

I think there will be a natural cull of Brits as a result of exchange rates, 40 is probably the lowest it will go against GBP but that's far enough to rule out a fair proportion of existing expats. The question is whether others will follow in their steps? Unlikely for a while I would guess, not until some of the rhetoric stops and the politics stabilises.

[cyberfarang]

59 minutes ago, MissAndry said:

 

Here we have the exact prediction silliness that I mentioned in my previous post. A Thai interest rate of 1% would reduce the value of the Thai baht to around 60bht = 1gbp. No other economic considerations required. A more likely prediction would be Thailand would go the way of Cambodia under Pol Pot, with all foreigners being excluded or killed, and half the Thai population being culled.

I still believe it will be the banks that determine the expats future in Thailand, but it doesn`t mean to say that I rule out what you are saying as nonsense.

 

The governments of Thailand, past and recent have always been unstable. Anything could happen here in the future at anytime, more military coups, civil war or even the coming to power of a brutal regime. Not meaning to be doom and gloom, but I wouldn`t rule anything out in this country. All we can do is hope it doesn`t happen.

[useronthenet]

I believe that Thailand isn't 'foreigner friendly'. Furthermore, it is apparent that your stay in Thailand could at any time, without any reason, be revoked by the authorities, (if they so wished). Foreigners have almost no rights at all, and it is for this reason that you should be prepared to leave at a moments notice. Buying property, or investing is not advised, as this would also leave you both exposed and in many cases, falling foul to the Thai law if you were forced to suddenly leave.

 

Foreigners are generally looked upon by Thais as merely 'cash cows', and no more. Those thinking that they have any kind of recognized status will be somewhat disappointed. The laws which govern the country constantly change, (depending on the political climate at the time), and could be described as extremely xenophobic (discriminatory)  towards foreigners, which in most 'civilized' countries would be classed as an infringement of your human rights. 

 

The current trend in Thailand towards foreigners is very grim indeed. Recently, we have witnessed more stringent controls, on both movement, and other visa requirements, which were almost non-existent before. Therefore, if this behavior by the authorities continues, then it will become almost intolerable to live in Thailand as an expat.

 

 

[Plutojames88]

2 hours ago, Dexlowe said:

I'm not going to enjoy writing this post. But I have been experiencing a lot of antipathy towards me of late (not personal - towards all white western males). I live on the darkside of Pattaya - about 20 mins on the motorbike to Beach Rd. When I first moved here (and in the preceding couple of years), I thought this area was quite cool as it was fairly quiet and the people were friendly. Fast forward 5 years and I'm beginning to feel unwelcome, both on the darkside and in the Pattaya/Jomtien area. Whereas young Thais were mostly indifferent towards you in the past, now there is quite open disdain - even hostility in some cases. Of course, there are still many lovely Thai people around whom I enjoy meeting as I go about my daily chores. But the level of indifference/disdain/resentment is growing ever stronger - it's not my imagination, it's very palpable. I've lived in Thailand for 3 decades, so I think I have a reasonable "handle" on local conditions. 

 

So, how does this answer the OP's question? Unfortunately, I shall not be around to find out as I intend leaving soon. Part of my reason for going home (apart from wanting to spend my remaining years with family) is that I don't feel quite as comfortable as I did here, even going back just 5 years. There is a lot I still enjoy about living on the darkside, but I fear that the next time some young smart-asp decides to "buzz" the farang on his motorcycle (and put my life in danger) to prove he's the superior Thai male, then I might just snap. And get the sh1t kicked out of me. I can't live in a village like Mr VF above (sorry, mate - I'm a city slicker  ). So I don't see a comfortable or relaxed lifestyle ahead for us WWMs (white western males) in my area - and it's that lifestyle that I desire in my retirement.

...Something is happening ..so many people are sensing Danger here now.

The attitude to westerners (has ) and is ..changing ...no it's not imagined.
The young are perceiving us through a prism of military passion .
Inspired by ""us and them "" propaganda .
Nationalistic , xenophobic pronouncement s .
Monks outside embassies burning flags.

Will we increasingly die ? 
Be at risk ?

I left ...( for ticking yes) 
History shows military governments in struggles with minds and hearts slowly undergo a metamorphosis into something different.
Harsh , more paranoid .
Preference to people from non human rights countries.

Criminals know this .
Case closed .
Far more easily for them.

The hatred in the eyes you see on the dark side is real.

Your message is equally of real.
Time will cocoon only so long the transformation.
But it's there.

The young are told we are bad .
Don't understand Thainess.
Interfering ...bad.

Hard times make us a prime target to take out some whiskey anger at 3am .

Be careful.

[Plutojames88]

12 minutes ago, useronthenet said:

I believe that Thailand isn't 'foreigner friendly'. Furthermore, it is apparent that your stay in Thailand could at any time, without any reason, be revoked by the authorities, (if they so wished). Foreigners have almost no rights at all, and it is for this reason that you should be prepared to leave at a moments notice. Buying property, or investing is not advised, as this would also leave you both exposed and in many cases, falling foul to the Thai law if you were forced to suddenly leave.

 

Foreigners are generally looked upon by Thais as merely 'cash cows', and no more. Those thinking that they have any kind of recognized status will be somewhat disappointed. The laws which govern the country constantly change, (depending on the political climate at the time), and could be described as extremely xenophobic (discriminatory)  towards foreigners, which in most 'civilized' countries would be classed as an infringement of your human rights. 

 

The current trend in Thailand towards foreigners is very grim indeed. Recently, we have witnessed more stringent controls, on both movement, and other visa requirements, which were almost non-existent before. Therefore, if this behavior by the authorities continues, then it will become almost intolerable to live in Thailand as an expat.

 

 

Yes current trend is getting more and more like Jews in Nazi Germany before it became obvious ....early signs are being tagged