New charter will see a revival of 1980s ‘Prem Model’ scenario, experts say

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New charter will see a revival of 1980s ‘Prem Model’ scenario, experts say

JUTHATHIP LUCKSANAWONG 
THE NATION 

 

BANGKOK: -- FOLLOWING the endorsement of the charter draft in the August 7 referendum, Thailand’s new political landscape is increasingly reminiscent of 1980s politics in the country.

 

It was then that a figure with "baramee" took the helm of the administration at the request of weakened House members who were vying for power.

A politician with baramee would possess a number of characteristics attributed to a good leader such as acceptability, honesty and integrity. They must also be admired and respected. 

The new constitution, which must be approved by the Constitutional Court next month, outlines a new electoral system, mixed-member apportionment, in which people vote only once and their votes are used to calculate the constituency MP and party-list MP seats at once.

As a result, changes to the parliamentary and administration landscapes are foreseen with no single party gaining a majority in the Lower House any more. Instead, there could be a power struggle that would pave the way for a person with baramee to lead the country.

Sukhum Nuansakul, a veteran political analyst and former rector of Ramkhamhaeng University, is among those who has observed this phenomenon closely. The senior scholar noted that as a result of the new electoral method, no party could form a strong government, and none of the elected parties would collaborate with one another to form a strong coalition government.

"The two major parties - the Democrats and Pheu Thai - would not be able to join forces. We won't see such a big coalition," he said. "The two opposition parties have different stances and different types of supporters. If they collaborated with each other, their own supporters would bombard them with criticism."

Sukhum said politicians always want to be a part of the government, not be in the opposition. After this predicted deadlock, he said, small and medium-sized parties would emerge as the most powerful entities.

The unfolding political situation reminds the veteran analyst of the 1983 political climate, when parliament called for non-MP General Prem Tinsulanonda, the current Privy Council president, to serve a second consecutive term as premier.

Sukhum, who was Prem's political adviser at the time, said after the 1983 election that some major and medium-sized parties, including the Democrats, the Social Action Party (Kij-Sang-Kom), the Thai Citizen's Party (Prachakorn Thai), and the Chart Prachathippatai Party, supported the general prolonging his tenure. Sukhum said Chart Thai initially planned to form a government by taking the support of other parties. However, it did not win the premier race due to disharmony in the Lower House.

He said, it was the military-appointed Upper House, which the 1978 Constitution empowered to jointly select the premier, that hampered the party's effort as it rather supported Prem from the beginning.

"Many political blocs then continuously came to Prem to offer him votes and support in a bid to get positions," Sukhum recalled.

He said Senate has got similar powers under the new constitution. By approving the additional referendum question, voters have empowered the Senate to jointly select the premier at the first joint Parliament meeting for the first five years following the election.

Sukhum predicted that under the new charter, the junta-appointed Senate would definitely back Prime MinisterPrayut Chan-o-cha, who also heads the ruling National Council for Peace and Order. 

However, Sukhum believes it is unlikely Prayut will vie to remain premier straightaway, as he had often reiterated that he did not want to cling to power. Prayut, he said, would wait for an appropriate time to do so - when the joint Parliament calls for his return to ease a deadlock and lead the new government.

"This way, Prayut would be in a better position to claim legitimacy to enter the office," Sukhum remarked.

If the future political outlook is indeed similar to the environment over three decades ago, Thai politics would see a lot of compromises in Parliament. The Lower House will have to come to terms with the power of the Upper House, remarked political academic Yutthaporn Issarachai, deputy rector of Sukhohai Thammathirat University.

Yutthaporn noted that elected MPs would have to yield to the united Senate in the coming Parliament as the constitutional draft gave the Upper House extensive power to supervise politicians and the Cabinet, despite having no role in nominating the premier from the outset. 

The academic also pointed out that the military would still be active in the next government because it believed that its mission was uncompleted.He said the NCPO seized power in 2014, citing as its mission the need to reform the country. However, the ongoing efforts to reform political parties and politicians had apparently not worked, he remarked. So, the junta wanted to continue its work as the country's guardian.
 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/New-charter-will-see-a-revival-of-1980s-Prem-Model-30294525.html

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2016-09-05

[The stuttering parrot]

Sounds like back to the future.

Doesnt matter which way they want to spin it about legitimacy they are not and never will be but in their eyes they think the smoke and mirror tricks are fooling the intl community.

[smutcakes]

You dont need to be a scholar to see this. It has been clear for a couple if years what they are trying to do. The irony being they will probably need to bribe parties and people to ensure their result, but they are not Shinawatra so bribery and corruption is acceptable.

[JAG]

The difference is that the people are better informed, if not better educated than they were in the 1980s.

 

There are significant new channels for opinion forming and sharing that were not available then. They can be clamped down on of course, but that in itself is a highly visible act of repression, domestically and internationally. 

 

Secondly, between then and now the electorate have had several chances to elect their own governments. Whilst those governments have been overthrown the electorate have tasted selecting a government. 

 

Bottling genies has never been  done.

 

[JAG]

57 minutes ago, JAG said:

The difference is that the people are better informed, if not better educated than they were in the 1980s.

 

There are significant new channels for opinion forming and sharing that were not available then. They can be clamped down on of course, but that in itself is a highly visible act of repression, domestically and internationally. 

 

Secondly, between then and now the electorate have had several chances to elect their own governments. Whilst those governments have been overthrown the electorate have tasted selecting a government. 

 

Bottling genies has never been  done.

 

One more thought occurs - the source of the " Baramee" which Prem enjoyed is no longer active. ..

 

Look up "Baramee", it is the root of a very pertinent phrase.

[MaxLee]

Haha, back to the middle age, where "Put-up, shut up and swallow-it-down-your-throat-brainwashed" will be the norm without questioning....

 

.... Shut down the Internet and telecommunication system 4ever in Thailand and mission complete...

 

[elgordo38]

8 hours ago, The stuttering parrot said:

Sounds like back to the future.

Doesnt matter which way they want to spin it about legitimacy they are not and never will be but in their eyes they think the smoke and mirror tricks are fooling the intl community.

Sounds more like a "Blast from the Past"  Quote  However, the ongoing efforts to reform political parties and politicians had apparently not worked, he remarked. So, the junta wanted to continue its work as the country's guardian. unquote. Does that just not warm the cuckolds of your heart? The PM just has our best interests at heart. He would like to return in the future as PM only in a more legitimate status? What does that make him now?

[MisterTee]

8 hours ago, smutcakes said:

You dont need to be a scholar to see this. It has been clear for a couple if years what they are trying to do. The irony being they will probably need to bribe parties and people to ensure their result, but they are not Shinawatra so bribery and corruption is acceptable.

Do you really think that bribery and corruption were unacceptable under the Shinawatra clan?

If so, you need some remedial education in Thai politics.

Maybe I'm misreading your post - apologies if that's the case.

[tbthailand]

Prem?   Really, ya don't say.... 

 

Well, he's already got the wardrobe for it. 

 

[candide]

The current PM will appoint senators, who in turn will later appoint him.

The perfect loop!

[JAG]

2 hours ago, candide said:

The current PM will appoint senators, who in turn will later appoint him.

The perfect loop!

 

Unless he gets Prems job. (I have heard persuasive arguments to the effect that he is after/ in line for it). In that case no doubt he will instruct the senators who to choose. That choice will of course be beholden to him.

[Redline]

Very interesting, but will the gods send someone?

 

A person who possesses baramee usually would have the following elements. 
First, he or she is visible or is publicly known.  This can be termed as “visibility.” Hence those who often appear in the mass media most notably T.V. would have an advantage. 

Second, he or she must have an expertise well recognized by the people.  He or she would thus be acceptable in case being appointed to a post pertinent to the knowledge or the know-how they possess. This may be termed as “acceptability.” 

Third, he or she must be known as people with honesty, integrity, responsibility, trustworthiness etc., which are the attributes of a good man, so to speak. 

Fourth, he or she is admired, respected and even worshiped by the people.  How strong such a sentiments are would  depend on the intensity of the quality above. 
Fifth, a person with pecuniary power will have baramee in a certain circle.  Bill Gate as a student at Harvard University did not have pecuniary baramee but after having been a successful I.T. tycoon, his baramee has extended to the circles of I.T., finance, business, and if he chooses to run for public office, he might develop political baramee in the political arena.  Thaksin Shinawatra is another example of a person who built his baramee, first in business and then politics. 

Sixth, personality, physiognomy (reading one’s personality and fortunes by the facial features), stature, speech, voice and the display leadership quality would add to the attribute of baramee.   Field Marshal Sarit Thanarat possessed powerful voice indicating his baramee as a strong leader, for example.  Dr. Puey Ungphakorn, a renowned economist, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, and Rector of Thammasat University was recognized for his baramee as being knowledgeable, honest and selfless services for the country.

[Pib]

Nothing like setting the political system back several decades to make things more comfortable for some. One step forward followed by several steps backwards.

[dbrenn]

On 05/09/2016 at 7:52 AM, JAG said:

One more thought occurs - the source of the " Baramee" which Prem enjoyed is no longer active. ..

 

Look up "Baramee", it is the root of a very pertinent phrase.

 

The army will make its own baramee and anyone who disagrees will 'disappear'.

[lucky11]

What a super scenario - and all carried out under the banner of democracy!! I'm afraid that the politicians have been out manouvered left right and centre and have been usurped by the military. Serves them right for serving themselves and not their voters when they were trusted to do so by them.

[lucky11]

18 hours ago, candide said:

The current PM will appoint senators, who in turn will later appoint him.

The perfect loop!

 

 No different to Thaksin bribing his constituents so that they would vote for him!!

[tominbkk]

I'm sure with this throwback to the good old days of the 1980s will also bring a throwback to more coups and mass protests where University demonstrators are shot down on the streets, labeled miscreants and communists.


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