Prayut faces acid test over rice policy

[webfact]

Prayut faces acid test over rice policy 
By Sasithorn Ongdee 
The Nation

 

 

As the price of rice falls, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha finds himself caught between a rock and a hard place

 

BANGKOK: -- Past governments either bought up paddy or offered farmers a guaranteed price for their crop, but neither of these remedies for low rice prices is acceptable to the current junta-led administration.

The price pledge is ruled out by the fact that the government is now suing former premier Yingluck Shinawatra over alleged negligence of duty towards just such a scheme run by her government. She is now facing a bill of Bt36 billion in civil liabilities.

But Prayut and his administration are under pressure to act after the price of Hom Mali (jasmine) rice plunged from Bt9,700 to Bt12,000 per tonne down as low as Bt5,000 per tonne.

 

Full story: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/politics/30299094

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2016-11-04

[surangw]

careful, if he messes with the wrong persons, the test may involve real acid

[davehowden]

" plunged from Bt9,700 to Bt12,000 per tonne ", now that is some plunge!!

[Thailand]

The catch 22 to end all catch 22's. Quite amusing.

[Ricardo]

"May you live in interesting times !"

[Brer Fox]

No rocks and no hard places for a capable soldier such as PM Prayuth. He can slip the trap by invoking Article 44 on himself to disallow himself and the government from entering into a rice pledging scheme. Problem solved.

[yellowboat]

1 hour ago, Brer Fox said:

No rocks and no hard places for a capable soldier such as PM Prayuth. He can slip the trap by invoking Article 44 on himself to disallow himself and the government from entering into a rice pledging scheme. Problem solved.

True, only is "reputation" is at stake.  He is not subject to the similar punishment that he wields.  He can afford to fail and just fade in to obscurity in a few years time.  At least he will have bike lanes and beach chair management to his credit. 

[Emster23]

Acid test? From whom? What they gonna do, have a no confidence vote? Vote him out of office? Is the press going to have a field day? ("No" to all the previous, for those yet to have morning coffee)

[waldroj]

Welcome to the world outside Thailand !!!

 

I suspect that this conundrum is beyond even Prayut's self-opinionated belief that he can bring happiness to the Thai people through his home-spun policies.

 

Regardless of the recent propaganda that has sought to lay the blame of middle-men, ill-intentioned politicians, or anyone else with different views, the simple fact is that world rice prices are falling.

 

According to the economic modelling group Trading Economics (TE), "...rice is expected to trade at 9.92 USD/CWT by the end of this quarter...". Far more worrying, TE also say, "...Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 9.62 in 12 months time..." (www.tradingeconomics.com/commodity/rice/forecast/).

 

 

So, regardless of the immediate problems for Prayut, in just over twelve months from now he could be faced with a classic wicked problem: a prolonged and ongoing decline in the price of rice (and very little that Thailand could do about it); an election at the end of 2017; a large group of desperate rice farmers, a large group of people opposing any government bailout, and worse still, a nation full of very angry voters.

 

It's going to be very interesting to see how long Prayut and the junta will/can resist resorting to a blatant populist policy in a fervent effort to minimise the damage to Thailand from ongoing low rice prices, and how they spin this with their propaganda.

 

 

 

 

[mtls2005]

The forecasted cost for this "barn-storage" scheme seems to be rising hourly.

 

It will be difficult, but not impossible, to find a previous government liable for losses, while trumpeting new schemes, given this new scheme seems even more difficult to manage.

[ElPatron]

I have got an idea : let's store the rice in a safe place to create some rice shortage, once the price goes up again sell it for big money. What could go wrong?

[robblok]

Someone should really do something, producing rice the way its been done does not work. We seen this over the years.. either put up some cooperatives and get better prices (cut out the middlemen) or stop planting rice.

I don't see why the normal tax payers should keep paying for the farmers problems. All this money could have gone to healthcare or schooling. All these years.. always the same thing.. farmers need money... but they never change one bit. That is because they know if they threaten they will get paid. 

 

I wonder if people would feel the same way if they paid normal companies to come to Thailand (no not talking tax breaks that is just getting less money from them) I mean paying Honda.. Toyota money to stay in Thailand and have Thai workers.. i guess people would see that as crazy.

[Denim]

Better hurry and get that money from Yingluk. It will come in handy to cover this governments losses from its own subsidy.

[IsaanAussie]

The FAO issued a report on the global rice market last month. Yes the price has fallen recently and indeed ever since 2008. Short term solutions are not the answer. This year our cost of production was 5.77 baht per kg, a loss at 5 baht and only a slight profit at the 6.4 baht being paid locally. The cost of production must be lowered if Thailand is to remain as an exporting nation, and alternate crops introduced if not. 

[StefanBBK]

7 minutes ago, ElPatron said:

I have got an idea : let's store the rice in a safe place to create some rice shortage, once the price goes up again sell it for big money. What could go wrong?

Jeffe, this is not your idea. I heard it before . Guess we all remember that economical masterpiece . ..

[mikosan]

4 hours ago, davehowden said:

" plunged from Bt9,700 to Bt12,000 per tonne ", now that is some plunge!!

Read what was written before you make your inane comments  "plunged from Bt9,700 to Bt12,000 per tonne down as low as Bt5,000 per tonne"  So what that means is that the price of rice was between Bt 9700 & Bt 12000 and it has plunged as low as Bt 5000.  That actually is a considerable plunge!

[Srikcir]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

neither of these remedies for low rice prices is acceptable to the current junta-led administration.

Maybe not acceptable but certainly not accountable:

 

"Under the programme, the Bank of Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives will accept paddy pledged by farmers at a fixed price of 9,500 baht/tonne or 90 percent of market price estimated at 11,000 baht/tonne. On top of that, farmers will receive 2,000 baht/tonne for quality improvement fee plus 1,500 baht/tonne for storage fees for farmers who have their own barns to store the pledged paddy with the first 1,000 baht to be paid immediately to farmers and the rest to be paid when the paddy is redeemed."  (2016-11-02)

 

http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/rice-board-adjusts-rice-pledging-price-to-13000-baht-from-11525-bahttonne/

 

[bark]

27 minutes ago, mikosan said:

Read what was written before you make your inane comments  "plunged from Bt9,700 to Bt12,000 per tonne down as low as Bt5,000 per tonne"  So what that means is that the price of rice was between Bt 9700 & Bt 12000 and it has plunged as low as Bt 5000.  That actually is a considerable plunge!

The information is not correct. 5,000 bt  = $143 USD/ton. Wrong

Price of 5 % Broken rice for October 2016 was $ 369.00 USD.

Price of 100 % Broken rice @ October 2016 was $ 350.00 USD.

 

[mikosan]

1 minute ago, bark said:

The information is not correct. 5,000 bt  = $143 USD/ton. Wrong

Price of 5 % Broken rice for October 2016 was $ 369.00 USD.

Price of 100 % Broken rice @ October 2016 was $ 350.00 USD.

 

 

I wasn't commenting on whether the information was correct or not, simply pointing out that the OP had misinterpreted what was written in the article. I have no idea what the price of rice is and really don't care.

[debate101]

Can we stop pretending that anything the government does might somehow come back to have some kind of repercussions on them? They rule by force. End of. At this point, Prayuth could eat children's bones on live TV and the next day, he would still hold unchecked power.

[SaintLouisBlues]

1 minute ago, debate101 said:

At this point, Prayuth could eat children's bones on live TV and the next day, he would still hold unchecked power.

"I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters," Trump said

[JetsetBkk]

5 minutes ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

6 minutes ago, debate101 said:

At this point, Prayuth could eat children's bones on live TV and the next day, he would still hold unchecked power.

"I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters," Trump said

 

Congratulations for bringing Trump into this discussion.   

 

[SaintLouisBlues]

Just now, JetsetBkk said:

Congratulations for bringing Trump into this discussion.   

You're most very welcome. You don't think they're two peas in a pod?

[JetsetBkk]

14 minutes ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

16 minutes ago, JetsetBkk said:

Congratulations for bringing Trump into this discussion.   

You're most very welcome. You don't think they're two peas in a pod?

 

Possibly.  

 

But I'm still waiting for the Thaksin/Yingluk haters to post. The silence is deafening.

[Xonax]

3 hours ago, waldroj said:

Welcome to the world outside Thailand !!!

 

I suspect that this conundrum is beyond even Prayut's self-opinionated belief that he can bring happiness to the Thai people through his home-spun policies.

 

Regardless of the recent propaganda that has sought to lay the blame of middle-men, ill-intentioned politicians, or anyone else with different views, the simple fact is that world rice prices are falling.

 

According to the economic modelling group Trading Economics (TE), "...rice is expected to trade at 9.92 USD/CWT by the end of this quarter...". Far more worrying, TE also say, "...Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 9.62 in 12 months time..." (www.tradingeconomics.com/commodity/rice/forecast/).

 

 

So, regardless of the immediate problems for Prayut, in just over twelve months from now he could be faced with a classic wicked problem: a prolonged and ongoing decline in the price of rice (and very little that Thailand could do about it); an election at the end of 2017; a large group of desperate rice farmers, a large group of people opposing any government bailout, and worse still, a nation full of very angry voters.

 

It's going to be very interesting to see how long Prayut and the junta will/can resist resorting to a blatant populist policy in a fervent effort to minimise the damage to Thailand from ongoing low rice prices, and how they spin this with their propaganda.

 

 

 

 

If growing rice is no longer a profitable business, then stop growing more and more rice for export.  Only less rice in the market, will result in a higher price.

[robblok]

2 hours ago, IsaanAussie said:

The FAO issued a report on the global rice market last month. Yes the price has fallen recently and indeed ever since 2008. Short term solutions are not the answer. This year our cost of production was 5.77 baht per kg, a loss at 5 baht and only a slight profit at the 6.4 baht being paid locally. The cost of production must be lowered if Thailand is to remain as an exporting nation, and alternate crops introduced if not. 

 

Great someone who understands something that needs to change. Shielding the farmers all the time will not help.. it will make them do the same thing again because they know they will be bailed out. 

[Emster23]

Stop beating around the paddy..... just have an election, with one booth for those in favor of current government (Vote there and get a 10,000 baht "thank you" note) and one booth against (free small bottle of water, just to keep it balanced). All this other ways to try to make it look like some sort of viable plan is just smoke and mirrors.