Central bank admits crackdown on zero-dollar package tours has greater impacts than earlier projected

[atyclb]

they cannot expect the chinese will send tourists to the country that confiscated their 2100 tour buses. chinese are clever business people and unlike thai's they do not forget.

 

 

now loss of  airport fees, bus driver salaries, bus maintenance, fuel, consumables bought in thailand, hotel workers, etc etc.

[khunPer]

14 minutes ago, Anthony5 said:

See my post on the previous page, October 2015 had 2.6 M arrivals, so a decline of 20%

Thanks, and October 2015 compared to September 2015, as all of 2015 may be less than 2016..?

[free123]

9 hours ago, damo said:

You can't always have your cake and eat it too. 

question : what are zero dollars tours ????? never heard of that...been to los often but zero dollar ? where can i register ??? for free around Thailand ??? 

confused....

[Ondral]

It is such a pleasant surprise to see a central bank admitting that their interference in the genuinely FREE market has created problems.

[madusa]

On 01/12/2016 at 0:13 AM, madusa said:

 

Everyone get their share, that's how it works. Don't you Farangs understands.?

If you understand how things work you will no longer complain, like me I never complain when I am in Thailand. And you will see the farmers are the honest guys who really break his back to put foods on table for his family. And worst part is he get cheated by the big guys in Bangkok.

[natway09]

No, we do not want them.

In the end you will find net receipts will show they are not needed & just add to the pollution factor for little return.

The Chinese with spending power will still come & would not be seen dead with these groups anyway

[Prbkk]

2 hours ago, Anthony5 said:

See my post on the previous page, October 2015 had 2.6 M arrivals, so a decline of 20%

 

And I was taking heart from those numbers preparing to come through BKK this morning: instead it was bedlam with huge queues, totally insufficient immigration desks open and great thongs blocking access to the fast track area. After a few good months it was back to the bad old days.

[seedy]

Troll post Removed

[geisha]

Mass tourism never did any one any good. Look at Spain , Bali, Thailand. Thousands of cheap flights landing every day with 1 week to 10 day tourists who have very little money to spend. They stay in their cheap hotels and guest houses, have lovely days on the beach and a cheap tasty meal at night , a few beers from the 7/11 and Bobs your uncle, a good holiday. These tourist monies do not get spread out. I'm not saying this is wrong , but if a country welcomes this sort of tourism, this is what it will get.All that it has achieved in Thailand is the rapid destruction of all the islands beauty , ugly buildings and a completely failed infrastructure. Shame. 

[sambum]

8 hours ago, madmitch said:

So what's happened to all the independent Chinese tourists that would replace the package tourists? Not to forget the visa free ones from Bhutan, San Marino and the like.

 

One positive from this article: a Government department has actually admitted they may have screwed up!

Must be a first - well this year anyway!

[sambum]

6 hours ago, Songlaw said:

 

For a land where 'plans' are the name given to whatever coalesces from the snowball effect of unintended consequences from other 'spurts of ingenuity' past, stupidity's inertia eventually becomes an insurmountable obstacle. It would be well advised to immediately suspend all plans and planning devised since 2014 (though it would have been infinitely better to do this before they ripped the spine out of Ratchayothin leaving traffic patterns to do <deleted> all for the next couple of years, but I digress).

This would allow absurdity's momentum to wind itself down, and a chance to begin anew, preferably with economics and engineering majors from pretty much anywhere other than here. In the interests of practicality, I use 'economics and engineering majors' more as euphemisms for anyone with the ability to say, no and make it stick. When all else, including intellect has failed, apply basic physics for chrissakes.

 

Or, conversely, continue attempting to outrun the tsunami of nonsense that all the 'governmental rumblings' have generated thus far. Though it can admittedly be frustrating to watch, it does nevertheless hold a modicum of entertainment value. Especially for they who find pleasure in laughing and crying, at the same time.

 

Your point being? I got confused after reading 2 lines!

[Anthony5]

1 hour ago, Prbkk said:

 

And I was taking heart from those numbers preparing to come through BKK this morning: instead it was bedlam with huge queues, totally insufficient immigration desks open and great thongs blocking access to the fast track area. After a few good months it was back to the bad old days.

 

They put in all those obstacles, on the roads as well they are creating trafic jams on purpose, just to give the impression that it's busy.

[starfish]

11 hours ago, davehowden said:

Foot, gun, shoot.

Can´t stop loughing .

You´re so right. can tell you that !

Edited December 1, 2016 by starfish

[elgenon]

But wait, the Minister of Tourism wants to close down the sexy businesses. What will that do to the tourism numbers? Raise them?

[GiantFan]

5 hours ago, khunPer said:

That stats in article don't say much...

Isn't October more low season than September..?
Was was the same difference in percent for 2015..?

How is October arrivals 2016 compared to October 2015..?

AOT has a spreadsheet that you can check out.

Bkk/DMK quarterly growth was around 10% for the first 3 quarters.  Oct up 4% compared to 15.

HKT quarterly around 20% q1-3.  October 8% increase compared to 15.

One or two months does not a trend make.  I'm waiting for Nov numbers.   My bet is around 32-33 million this year.  

[kkerry]

The Bangkok Post last week reported the DMK airport manager saying tourist arrivals at the airport had dropped to 80,000 passengers per day, from 90-100,000 before the crackdown, but were starting to pick-up again.

 

BP also reported that at Suvarnabhumi, the airport manager there noticed a drop in Chinese tourists to 4,000 from 13,000 per day in August.

 

 

[jabis]

10 hours ago, MROLL320 said:

So how is the baht remaining strong?  Increased oil prices will mean a devaluation is out the question? 

Foreign reserves being used to prop it up - simple ^^

[Peterw42]

11 hours ago, hansnl said:

13 hours ago, davehowden said:

Foot, gun, shoot.

Feet, gun, one shot, two hits.

 

A 100% rise in productivity, A better than expected outcome. 2 times the projected impact. 

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

A few days ago theee was an article about 3 airlines thats got severe problems due to this. The impact was a 70% decline in Chinese arrivals. In most other countries people that makes these type of errors get fired.

Edited December 1, 2016 by SOUTHERNSTAR

[digibum]

12 hours ago, Srikcir said:

I have never seen such a statistic. Can you provide a reference or link?

 

The generally cited GDP revenue distribution has been from exports (70%), tourism (10-11%) and domestic consumption by Thai private enterprise and government spending (20%).

 

Perhaps what you are referring to is that tourism contributes 20% of GDP growth. Export growth has been contracting since 2015 while tourism and government spending have been increasing as the main contributors to GDP growth, albeit nominal in terms of total GDP growth.

 

I've seen it mentioned several times across various sources but I'm too lazy to look them up (plus, a few sources might not be viewable in Thailand).  If I run across something in the next few days I'll come back and post it though.  

[digibum]

15 hours ago, terminatorchiangmai said:

we don't want them, no sorry we want them please come back.

 

Chinese don't understand Thai culture.  

[digibum]

15 hours ago, Bantex said:

Is this the motto of Thailand?

 

 

I thought the motto of Thailand was:  If you try something and it doesn't work, just keep doing it.  You can always lie and tell people it was wildly successful. 

 

 

[digibum]

14 hours ago, mike324 said:

Zero dollar tours are not good for the country, period. Wonder why people are bashing the government, they are just reporting that it has a bigger impact than they expected. Which means zero dollar tour industry is bigger than they expected.

 

 

They're bashing them because, as usual, Thailand thought it could have its cake and eat it too.  They courted all of these Chinese tourists full well knowing that this is how the game worked but they needed the numbers so they looked the other way to get them.  Then, once they start coming, they decide to lay the hammer down and make them pony up cash and they quit coming.  

[nausea]

Oops, maybe we need to rethink this. Like when they finally drive out all the expat Farangs, and the billions they bring in. 

[onthesoi]

Zero dollar tours are a scam to fleece tourists, the Thai government should be commended for cracking down, especially as some large Thai companies have been involved which are now being brought to heel.

 

Go Prayut ...

[GAZZPA]

17 hours ago, Pib said:

And when looking at about webpage that Anthony5 gave when looking from 1998 to mid 2016 current tourist arrivals are still trending upward with the very typical sawtooth pattern...up a little, down a little....but over the long term still trending upward.  Short term variations are all part of the long term game.

 

Of course, this is a consequence of the rise of SE Asia overall. The thing to consider is this, "what kind of tourists are visiting Thailand today?"

 

In my opinion the high's and growth of Thai tourism over the last 2 decades is under pressure. The package tours from China are a serious problem for the economy so if that proportion of tourists is increasing then the benefit to the Thai economy reduces.

 

I hope Thailand finds its direction one day but right now they dont really know what they want or at the very least know how to control it. 

[kannot]

22 hours ago, berybert said:

One thing you can guarantee is that despite tourist numbers being down and money spent being down, the end of year figures will show tourist numbers up and money spent up.

The numbers never lie in Thai.

yet  they  all  need a  calculator  in  the  shops

[digibum]

4 hours ago, GAZZPA said:

Of course, this is a consequence of the rise of SE Asia overall. The thing to consider is this, "what kind of tourists are visiting Thailand today?"

 

In my opinion the high's and growth of Thai tourism over the last 2 decades is under pressure. The package tours from China are a serious problem for the economy so if that proportion of tourists is increasing then the benefit to the Thai economy reduces.

 

I hope Thailand finds its direction one day but right now they dont really know what they want or at the very least know how to control it. 

 

The other thing to consider is it's a different type of tourist coming from China.  Yes, they don't spend as much.  Of course.  

 

But I'm talking about the fact that if Thailand farts wrong and China doesn't like it, well buddy, tourism drops very fast.  

 

You insult the UK or the US, sure, you might see a minor 10% dip for a month or two but then they forget about it and they come back.  

 

If Thailand plays hardball on a rail project or isn't as ponying up enough money for a dam, well, maybe the Chinese government lets some travel agents know that Thailand isn't a nice place.  Oh, and best not take a side China doesn't approve of on issues concerning Taiwan or the South China Sea.  Nope.  That simply isn't acceptable.  

 

And the more and more Thailand relies on tourism to hold up the economy and the more and more China is the main source of that tourism, well, Thailand's going to be walking a very thin line. 

 

  

[NongKhaiKid]

Just now, digibum said:

 

The other thing to consider is it's a different type of tourist coming from China.  Yes, they don't spend as much.  Of course.  

 

But I'm talking about the fact that if Thailand farts wrong and China doesn't like it, well buddy, tourism drops very fast.  

 

You insult the UK or the US, sure, you might see a minor 10% dip for a month or two but then they forget about it and they come back.  

 

If Thailand plays hardball on a rail project or isn't as ponying up enough money for a dam, well, maybe the Chinese government lets some travel agents know that Thailand isn't a nice place.  Oh, and best not take a side China doesn't approve of on issues concerning Taiwan or the South China Sea.  Nope.  That simply isn't acceptable.  

 

And the more and more Thailand relies on tourism to hold up the economy and the more and more China is the main source of that tourism, well, Thailand's going to be walking a very thin line. 

 

  

Macau's tourism has suffered when the Mainland bans people from going to gamble and not so long back the Chief Executive of Hong Kong warned that it was necessary for citizens to be nice to mainlanders otherwise Beijing would restrict visitor numbers.

China doesn't mess around.

[digibum]

6 minutes ago, NongKhaiKid said:

Macau's tourism has suffered when the Mainland bans people from going to gamble and not so long back the Chief Executive of Hong Kong warned that it was necessary for citizens to be nice to mainlanders otherwise Beijing would restrict visitor numbers.

China doesn't mess around.

 

Thailand is so out of their depth dealing with China.  China can be as mean and nasty as a mafia loan shark.  Thailand thinks that because they were able to jerk around the US and a few other passive western countries that they understand how to wag the dog.  But this isn't China's first rodeo and they're very good at getting what they want on their terms so I think this plays out very badly for Thailand in the long run.  

 

Thailand is like a guy who catches a python by the head and says, "See, it's harmless," as the python wraps itself around the man's chest.