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Trump pulls U.S. out of Pacific trade deal, loosening Asia ties


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Trump pulls U.S. out of Pacific trade deal, loosening Asia ties

By Steve Holland and Ayesha Rascoe

REUTERS

 

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U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during the Inaugural Law Enforcement Officers and First Responders Reception in the Blue Room of the White House in Washington, U.S., January 22, 2017. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump formally withdrew the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal on Monday, distancing America from its Asian allies, as China's influence in the region rises.

 

Fulfilling a campaign pledge to end American involvement in the 2015 pact, Trump signed an executive order in the Oval Office pulling the United States out of the 12-nation TPP.

 

Trump, who wants to boost U.S. manufacturing, said he would seek one-on-one trade deals with countries that would allow the United States to quickly terminate them in 30 days "if somebody misbehaves."

 

“We're going to stop the ridiculous trade deals that have taken everybody out of our country and taken companies out of our country," the Republican president said as he met with union leaders in the White House's Roosevelt Room.

 

The TPP accord, backed heavily by U.S. business, was negotiated by former Democratic President Barack Obama's administration but never approved by Congress. It had been the main economic pillar of the Obama administration's "pivot" to the Asia-Pacific region to counter China.

 

Trump has sparked worries in Japan and elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific with his opposition to the TPP and his campaign demands for U.S. allies to pay more for their security.

 

But his trade stance mirrors a growing feeling among Americans that international trade deals have hurt the U.S. job market. Republicans have long held the view that free trade is a must, but that mood has been changing.

 

"It's going to be very difficult to fight that fight," said Lanhee Chen, a Hoover Institution fellow who was domestic policy adviser to 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney. "Trump is reflecting a trend that has been apparent for many years."

 

Harry Kazianis, Director of Defense Studies at the Center for the National Interest think tank in Washington, said Trump must now find an alternative way to reassure allies in Asia.

 

"This could include multiple bilateral trade agreements. Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam should be approached first as they are key to any new Asia strategy that President Trump will enact,” he said.

 

Trump is also working to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement to provide more favourable terms to the United States, telling reporters he would meet leaders of NAFTA partners Mexico and Canada to get the process started.

 

BUSINESS LEADERS

 

The new president also met with a dozen American manufacturers at the White House on Monday, pledging to slash regulations and cut corporate taxes - but warning them he would take action on trade deals he felt were unfair.

 

Trump, who took office on Friday, has promised to bring factories back to the United States - an issue he said helped him win the Nov. 8 election. He has not hesitated to call out by name companies that he thinks should bring outsourced production back home.

 

He said those businesses that choose to move plants outside the country would pay a price. "We are going to be imposing a very major border tax on the product when it comes in," Trump said.

 

He asked the group of chief executives from companies including Ford Motor Co <F.N>, Dell Technologies Inc <DVMT.N>, Tesla Motors Inc <TSLA.O> and others to make recommendations in 30 days to stimulate manufacturing, Dow Chemical Co <DOW.N> Chief Executive Officer Andrew Liveris told reporters.

 

Liveris said the CEOs discussed the border tax "quite a bit" with Trump, explaining "the sorts of industry that might be helped or hurt by that."

 

"Look: I would take the president at his word here. He's not going to do anything to harm competitiveness," Liveris said. "He's going to actually make us all more competitive."

 

At part of the meeting observed by reporters, Trump provided no details on how the border tax would work.

 

The U.S. dollar fell to a seven-week low against a basket of other major world currencies on Monday, and global stock markets were shaky amid investor concerns about Trump's protectionist rhetoric.

 

"A company that wants to fire all of its people in the United States, and build some factory someplace else, and then thinks that that product is going to just flow across the border into the United States - that’s not going to happen," he said.

 

CUT TAXES AND REGULATIONS

 

The president told the CEOs he would like to cut corporate taxes to the 15 percent to 20 percent range, down from current statutory levels of 35 percent - a pledge that will require cooperation from the Republican-led U.S. Congress.

 

But he said business leaders have told him that reducing regulations is even more important.

 

"We think we can cut regulations by 75 percent. Maybe more," Trump told business leaders.

 

"When you want to expand your plant, or when Mark wants to come in and build a big massive plant, or when Dell wants to come in and do something monstrous and special – you're going to have your approvals really fast,” Trump said, referring to Mark Fields, CEO of Ford, who sat around the boardroom-style table in the Roosevelt Room.

 

Fields said he was encouraged by the tone of the meeting.

 

"I know I come out with a lot of confidence that the president is very, very serious on making sure that the United States economy is going to be strong and have policies - tax, regulatory or trade - to drive that," he said.

 

Trump told the executives that companies were welcome to negotiate with governors to move production between states.

Trump was scheduled to hold a meeting later on Monday with labour leaders and U.S. workers, the White House said.

 

(Additional reporting by David Brunnstrom, Doina Chiacu, Susan Heavey, Ayesha Rascoe and David Shepardson; Editing by Frances Kerry, Alistair Bell and Jonathan Oatis)

 
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-- © Copyright Reuters 2017-01-24
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So just wait and see what happens when China and Japan want to cash out their $2.4 trillion ($2.400.000.000.000) in US national debts.
Add to that that most of today's electronics are produced in China and SAE and even if Apple, Qualcomm and other semiconductor companies are American they have their silicon foundries and production plants (the infrastructure and backbone of tech companies) in China and SAE. The same goes for much of the heavy industry that has moved out of US and with it the infrastructure needed to do those jobs has moved too. Who will spend the money to rebuild that?!

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3 minutes ago, Kasset Tak said:

So just wait and see what happens when China and Japan want to cash out their $2.4 trillion ($2.400.000.000.000) in US national debts.
Add to that that most of today's electronics are produced in China and SAE and even if Apple, Qualcomm and other semiconductor companies are American they have their silicon foundries and production plants (the infrastructure and backbone of tech companies) in China and SAE. The same goes for much of the heavy industry that has moved out of US and with it the infrastructure needed to do those jobs has moved too. Who will spend the money to rebuild that?!

Cashing out their bonds would only strengthen their currencies against the US dollar...which they have been trying to avoid to maintain their trade surplus.

 

What production centres and foundaries would survive should their local currencies double in value overnight?

 

Lots of rhetoric but their hands are tied...

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19 minutes ago, Kasset Tak said:

So just wait and see what happens when China and Japan want to cash out their $2.4 trillion ($2.400.000.000.000) in US national debts.
Add to that that most of today's electronics are produced in China and SAE and even if Apple, Qualcomm and other semiconductor companies are American they have their silicon foundries and production plants (the infrastructure and backbone of tech companies) in China and SAE. The same goes for much of the heavy industry that has moved out of US and with it the infrastructure needed to do those jobs has moved too. Who will spend the money to rebuild that?!

China has been cashing out for some time, as has Japan.  Russia is buying.  There's a huge demand for US treasuries.

 

http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/19/investing/china-sells-us-debt-japan-russia/
 

Quote

 

According to figures released by the Treasury Department on Wednesday evening, China's holdings of U.S. government bonds fell $66 billion in November to $1.05 trillion. It is the sixth straight month that China has reduced its exposure to U.S. Treasuries.

 

Since May, the value of China's Treasury holdings has dropped by nearly $195 billion. Japan passed China in October to become the largest foreign owner of U.S. debt.

.....

It's also worth noting that China and Japan may be selling bonds because they need the cash to support their own economies.

 

China's economy is likely in pretty bad shape.

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18 minutes ago, trogers said:

Cashing out their bonds would only strengthen their currencies against the US dollar...which they have been trying to avoid to maintain their trade surplus.

 

What production centres and foundaries would survive should their local currencies double in value overnight?

 

Lots of rhetoric but their hands are tied...

Yes, but US want to end China's and SAE's trade surplus with leaving the TPP and that is what might trigger China and Japan cashing out.
US on the other hand don't have the infrastructure anymore to build anything as the companies have moved to places where it's cheaper to produce... who want to spend money to build new production plants in US and then pay up to 10 times as much as they pay today for the workforce?!

 

7 minutes ago, craigt3365 said:

China has been cashing out for some time, as has Japan.  Russia is buying.  There's a huge demand for US treasuries.

 

http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/19/investing/china-sells-us-debt-japan-russia/
 

China's economy is likely in pretty bad shape.

China and Japan still own $2.4 trillion and Russia's economy is in a bad shape thanks to US putting embargo and such things on them. This leaves us with over $3 trillion in US treasuries that is owned by basically 3 countries that US at the moment are doing everything they can to piss off!

EU and Europe have its own problems and don't need US tressure bonds and the OPEC countries are bleeding cash thanks to the low oil prices so who then will buy US bonds, especially when you add the $120 trillion unfunded deficiency that US government already have that they need to find money for?!

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46 minutes ago, Kasset Tak said:

So just wait and see what happens when China and Japan want to cash out their $2.4 trillion ($2.400.000.000.000) in US national debts.
Add to that that most of today's electronics are produced in China and SAE and even if Apple, Qualcomm and other semiconductor companies are American they have their silicon foundries and production plants (the infrastructure and backbone of tech companies) in China and SAE. The same goes for much of the heavy industry that has moved out of US and with it the infrastructure needed to do those jobs has moved too. Who will spend the money to rebuild that?!

have you ever actually considered why a lot of these large companies choose China for their manufacturing ? China does not play a straight game, everything they do is rigged for their benefit, in the west there are rules and regulation that limit flexibility - China adheres to none of it, they also manipulate their currency to maximum effect, I get the impression Trump is about to throw a huge spanner in the works and it is a long time coming

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33 minutes ago, Kasset Tak said:

China and Japan still own $2.4 trillion and Russia's economy is in a bad shape thanks to US putting embargo and such things on them. This leaves us with over $3 trillion in US treasuries that is owned by basically 3 countries that US at the moment are doing everything they can to piss off!

EU and Europe have its own problems and don't need US tressure bonds and the OPEC countries are bleeding cash thanks to the low oil prices so who then will buy US bonds, especially when you add the $120 trillion unfunded deficiency that US government already have that they need to find money for?!

US treasuries are highly sought after, no lack of demand for them.  No dire consequences here.

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50 minutes ago, smedly said:

have you ever actually considered why a lot of these large companies choose China for their manufacturing ? China does not play a straight game, everything they do is rigged for their benefit, in the west there are rules and regulation that limit flexibility - China adheres to none of it, they also manipulate their currency to maximum effect, I get the impression Trump is about to throw a huge spanner in the works and it is a long time coming

Lots of nonsense here but the manipulating currency meme is the most egregious. China is actually trying to prop up its currency to stop capital outflow. Among other things, it is selling not buying US bonds.

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Trump just tossed the Canadian and Australian economies a lifeline. Those two countries will be able to exploit the Asian market without fear of the US under cutting their efforts.  As the TPP and NAFTA collapse because of small mindedness and typical short term  vulture capital thinking, China will turn to the EU, Canada and Mexico and if need be tighten its belt and take a haircut. The US is pushing its allies to work closer together and to make deals with China all to the detriment of the US economy.

 

Ok, so the USA will make it tough to  buy from China and others. Alll they will do is readjust their trade policies and trade amongst themselves and it will soon become an anyone but USA thing.

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What a moronic whack-job. Does he seriously think the TPP members are going to wring their hands in horror and beg him to reconsider? Or is it more likely that they will regroup and press on with other prospective members? 

In any case, major beneficiary of this lunacy will be Beijing rather than the American worker. Madness and folly.

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Lots of opinions on what this means but as always it's all speculation.  There was a time when it wasn't hard to predict what would come next, but not anymore.  Trump is on a mission to de-stabilise the world economy although he probably doesn't realise it.

 

The biggest fear with Trump was that he would actually go ahead with his madcap ideas.  So that is one box ticked.

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Trump may wish to return to a period of time when the world was inherently unstable, a time where China was lurching from one catastrophe to another and was closed, where there was an Iron Curtain to match the Bamboo Curtain and where countries cowered in fear and had to align with one major country or face invasion by another.   

 

The Irish and the English were at it, Europe was relatively unstable up to and including the time of the breakup of Yugoslavia.   

 

China has gotten it's act together, Europe is United and the two countries that really haven't got much of a place in the Old World lineup are the US and Russia.   Trump has the opportunity to move forward or backward.   It appears like he is going backwards.   Time will tell.   

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12 hours ago, Prbkk said:

What a moronic whack-job. Does he seriously think the TPP members are going to wring their hands in horror and beg him to reconsider? Or is it more likely that they will regroup and press on with other prospective members? 

In any case, major beneficiary of this lunacy will be Beijing rather than the American worker. Madness and folly.

Exactly.

I'm extremely angry and disgusted about this.

He runs to make American great (again?) and demonizing China and in his first few days he gives it all up to ... CHINA.

In case this is confusing, yes Hillary Clinton came out against TPP for political positioning but I took that to mean she would work on getting the U.S. a better deal rather than just wholesale BAIL / withdraw from Asia like the baby man president just did. 

What did we (Americans) do to deserve it (trump)? 

 

trumpmoron.jpg

 

Trump kills TPP, giving China its first big win

 

He also handed China its clearest opening yet to tilt the geopolitical balance in Asia in its favor.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/01/24/trump-kills-tpp-giving-china-its-first-big-win/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_todays-wv-915a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.6940cdd75b26

 

 

Edited by Jingthing
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1 minute ago, connda said:

A 'trade agreement' that gives corporate courts jurisdiction over sovereign counties?  Good riddance and that garbage tossed on the trash heap of history. 

Yes it's a bad idea. And just as bad is the fact that conservative justices in the USA have given corporations the right to impose arbitration instead of being subject to the courts.

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10 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

Yes it's a bad idea. And just as bad is the fact that conservative justices in the USA have given corporations the right to impose arbitration instead of being subject to the courts.

agreed.

Arbitration should only be possible to make compulsory for corporations, businessmen/tradesmen and within sport organizations.

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2 minutes ago, manarak said:

agreed.

Arbitration should only be possible to make compulsory for corporations, businessmen/tradesmen and within sport organizations.

Given Trump's Supreme Court preferences and the fact that mandatory arbitration works massively in favor of the corporations, I think it's clear that he wants to keep the status quo.

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No TPP is inflationary for the US. Trump cannot cut the deals he says in his first term and looking beyond that is ridiculous. He should be about getting what's achievable, done. This was a campaign issue. It was about bloated middle America and restoring them. They cannot be restored and will die off. Harsh, I know. 

 

More concerning should be inflation and gripeing middle america. Serious domestic tension there. That will do his affection for the media no end of help.

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Trump may wish to return to a period of time when the world was inherently unstable, a time where China was lurching from one catastrophe to another and was closed, where there was an Iron Curtain to match the Bamboo Curtain and where countries cowered in fear and had to align with one major country or face invasion by another.   
 
The Irish and the English were at it, Europe was relatively unstable up to and including the time of the breakup of Yugoslavia.   
 
China has gotten it's act together, Europe is United and the two countries that really haven't got much of a place in the Old World lineup are the US and Russia.   Trump has the opportunity to move forward or backward.   It appears like he is going backwards.   Time will tell.   

He got elected on the promise of letting the good old times relive.
Can't happen, the world is moving forward.

Sent from my ROBBY using Thaivisa Connect mobile app

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4 hours ago, optad said:

No TPP is inflationary for the US. Trump cannot cut the deals he says in his first term and looking beyond that is ridiculous. He should be about getting what's achievable, done. This was a campaign issue. It was about bloated middle America and restoring them. They cannot be restored and will die off. Harsh, I know. 

 

More concerning should be inflation and gripeing middle america. Serious domestic tension there. That will do his affection for the media no end of help.

 

The forecast outcome of the Trump TPP decision is forecast to create US workers US$131 billion less annual income by 2030. So much for increasing US workers wealth with his ideology based decisions, rather than what would have been of benefit for US workers.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-trade-tpp-peterson-idUSKCN0V30ZA

 

IMO & others, having a multiplicity of bi-lateral trade agreements with differing tariffs and regulations will create an additional overhead in regulatory compliance,  countering Trump Administration promises to reduce legislation compliance overheads for businesses.

Edited by simple1
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52 minutes ago, simple1 said:

 

The forecast outcome of the Trump TPP decision is forecast to create US workers US$131 billion less annual income by 2030. So much for increasing US workers wealth with his ideology based decisions, rather than what would have been of benefit for US workers.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-trade-tpp-peterson-idUSKCN0V30ZA

 

IMO & others, having a multiplicity of bi-lateral trade agreements with differing tariffs and regulations will create an additional overhead in regulatory compliance,  countering Trump Administration promises to reduce legislation compliance overheads for businesses.

 

I agree. This tendency started with the Bush regime primarily in an attempt to push ideologically driven policy objectives through the trade mechanism. It started with the US moving away form multilateralism in the form of the WTO Doha round into a series of bilateral FTA's that clearly benefited one side more than the other and were in fact often instruments to bully smaller states into submission. This was back in 2006.

 

"Critics like Jagdish Bhagwati, CFR's senior fellow in international economics, say the United States is using such deals to bully smaller states, which want access to the large American market. They say Washington is able to insist on tough labor standards and intellectual property rules far in excess of requirements of the World Trade Organization. Arvind Panagariya, an economics professor at Columbia University, says some deals are clearly detrimental to the smaller partners. In the case of the recent FTA the United States signed with Chile: "We forbid them from using capital controls [restrictions on the trade of assets across borders],"

http://www.cfr.org/trade/rise-bilateral-free-trade-agreements/p10890#p7

 

The Right's push to move away from multilateralism is entirely self defeating and consistent with the nativist isolationism that we now see under Minority President Trump. As America's soft power dissipates through the rest of the World scoffing at the ignoramus currently in the White House, the only alternative for these America Firsters will be the use of Hard Power. Or to skulk away behind their border wall-fence. Let's hope it is the latter and we can get on and all start learning Chinese.

 

 

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"The new president also met with a dozen American manufacturers at the White House on Monday, pledging to slash regulations and cut corporate taxes -"

 

"The president told the CEOs he would like to cut corporate taxes to the 15 percent to 20 percent range, down from current statutory levels of 35 percent - a pledge that will require cooperation from the Republican-led U.S. Congress."

 

"We think we can cut regulations by 75 percent. Maybe more," Trump told business leaders.

 

LUNATIC.

 

The Swamp Dwellers are drooling...

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On 1/24/2017 at 11:03 AM, Kasset Tak said:

Yes, but US want to end China's and SAE's trade surplus with leaving the TPP and that is what might trigger China and Japan cashing out.
US on the other hand don't have the infrastructure anymore to build anything as the companies have moved to places where it's cheaper to produce... who want to spend money to build new production plants in US and then pay up to 10 times as much as they pay today for the workforce?!

 

China and Japan still own $2.4 trillion and Russia's economy is in a bad shape thanks to US putting embargo and such things on them. This leaves us with over $3 trillion in US treasuries that is owned by basically 3 countries that US at the moment are doing everything they can to piss off!

EU and Europe have its own problems and don't need US tressure bonds and the OPEC countries are bleeding cash thanks to the low oil prices so who then will buy US bonds, especially when you add the $120 trillion unfunded deficiency that US government already have that they need to find money for?!

The US can print money, and can rebuild quickly with state of the art new factories to produce anything they need. WW2 was living proof of this with a very strong economy following it. The US is very capable of making machines that will make its clothing etc. These machines don't need to eat or sleep and the goods will not need to be shipped nor will the raw cotton, iron ore, etc.

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16 minutes ago, Grubster said:

The US can print money, and can rebuild quickly with state of the art new factories to produce anything they need. WW2 was living proof of this with a very strong economy following it. The US is very capable of making machines that will make its clothing etc. These machines don't need to eat or sleep and the goods will not need to be shipped nor will the raw cotton, iron ore, etc.

Yes, US prints money to cover the fact that it's basically broke and that's why US has a $150 trillion deficit. If US continue to just print and print and print money then what will happen to the value of the USD ... it will fall like a rock!

State of the art factories made with parts imported from China and Japan that will be need to be payed for in Yen or Yuan as the USD will be worthless!

Just look at it, the USD is not guaranteed by the United Stated, USD is guaranteed by the Federal Reserve, an "Independent Central Bank" not governed by the US government or the US treasury department! Basically US <deleted> up the banking system the same way they <deleted> up democracy... how can you otherwise explain how Trump became president with almost 3 million votes less than Hillary!?

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1 minute ago, Kasset Tak said:

Yes, US prints money to cover the fact that it's basically broke and that's why US has a $150 trillion deficit. If US continue to just print and print and print money then what will happen to the value of the USD ... it will fall like a rock!

State of the art factories made with parts imported from China and Japan that will be need to be payed for in Yen or Yuan as the USD will be worthless!

Just look at it, the USD is not guaranteed by the United Stated, USD is guaranteed by the Federal Reserve, an "Independent Central Bank" not governed by the US government or the US treasury department! Basically US <deleted> up the banking system the same way they <deleted> up democracy... how can you otherwise explain how Trump became president with almost 3 million votes less than Hillary!?

You are wrong a falling dollar would make the US stronger not weaker. Bye

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