Falling treasury reserves: There’s more to it than the govt’s claims

[chiang mai]

1 minute ago, KhunBN said:

 

Why are the media and people making a big fuss if it's normal with no impact by historical data unless, they are not aware of this themselves? 

Stories like this sell newspapers

Some people trying to create mischief

People in high places not aware, left hand not talking to right hand

Some people just like to bash for the sake of bashing

 

Take your pick of one or more, they are all correct.

[chiang mai]

3 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

I guess we'll know the truth when the FY 2018 budget (Oct. 1, 2017-Sept. 31, 2018) is submitted in May 2017.

 

What is not so clear is what the deficit is now for FY2017 budget (Oct. 1, 2016-Sept. 31, 2017). DPM Somkid said last month "that deficit budget is still necessary as the country’s expenditure budget this fiscal year is estimated at 2.9 trillion baht with 450 billion baht in deficit."  http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/government-approves-deficit-budget-2017-fiscal-year/ 

 

So the deficit is no longer 390 billion baht passed by the NLA for FY 2017.

The 2017 deficit would appear to be 450 bill. and the reduction of Treasury Reserve account contribution is 67%, essentially the TR Account is being shrunk.

[The Deerhunter]

9 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

There is a decent article in the opinion piece of the BKP website which appears to ask some legitimate questions of this situation without getting all political about it.

It looks like a contrived posting.  The fluctuations seem historically reasonably normal.  Well, not abnormally out of order at this stage

Edited February 9, 2017 by The Deerhunter

[KhunBN]

1 minute ago, chiang mai said:

Stories like this sell newspapers

Some people trying to create mischief

People in high places not aware, left hand not talking to right hand

Some people just like to bash for the sake of bashing

 

Take your pick of one or more, they are all correct.

Sounds similar to the situation in America right now. People believing everything they see instantly on the internet especially if the information comes from some celebrity they adore.

 

I prefer to hear both sides of a story and do some self-research.

 

Thank you for your wise explanations, chiang mai.

[smutcakes]

1 minute ago, The Deerhunter said:

It looks like a contrived posting.  The fluctuations seem histroricaly pretty normal.

Fluctuations do seem normal, it does not mean they don't ask valid questions. Far more knowledgeable people than I or perhaps you are asking questions. I think the article questions more that the reason they have given about keeping reserves low does not exactly match with their fiscal policy over the past couple of years. In addition although fluctuations are normal, prior to the coup it appears the lower level of reserves was generally on the increase from 2012 (Floods). It would be interesting to see a more extended chart.

[gk10002000]

first of all, how can anybody trust the numbers when there is no independent accounting? 

[Eric Loh]

Collective patting each other backs will not vindicate the junta government massive borrowings and ability to pay when tax and revenues remain stagnant. They are smart to write themselves an amnesty. 

[Jip99]

6 minutes ago, gk10002000 said:

first of all, how can anybody trust the numbers when there is no independent accounting? 

 

 

Indeed - just look at the rice scam.

[Baerboxer]

1 hour ago, Eric Loh said:

Bottom line, falling treasury reserves, increasing budget deficits and more borrowings by the junta government are bad for the country and a burden for the tax payers and generations to come. More so when you have a junta government that lacks transparency and accountability and threaten people that ask too much difficult questions. Nothing good when you spend more than you earn especially at this time when the exports and domestic economy are weak and those are our major key economic engines. The global uncertainty and softness will persist for a long while and we need better financial discipline and accountability; not from this unelected junta government. 

 

What's interesting Eric, is that the current government haven't tried to suppress this information, immediately deny it and/or issue several other conflicting sets of figures whilst claiming all are real, or simply told a few "white lies" to make the public "feel better".

[Baerboxer]

9 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

Fluctuations do seem normal, it does not mean they don't ask valid questions. Far more knowledgeable people than I or perhaps you are asking questions. I think the article questions more that the reason they have given about keeping reserves low does not exactly match with their fiscal policy over the past couple of years. In addition although fluctuations are normal, prior to the coup it appears the lower level of reserves was generally on the increase from 2012 (Floods). It would be interesting to see a more extended chart.

 

Indeed - but at least they aren't telling little white lies to keep everyone happy and quiet.

[Srikcir]

20 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

the TR Account is being shrunk.

So not a cyclic event.

[smutcakes]

Just now, Baerboxer said:

 

Indeed - but at least they aren't telling little white lies to keep everyone happy and quiet.

Probably best we not talk about Governments lying.....

[chiang mai]

14 minutes ago, gk10002000 said:

first of all, how can anybody trust the numbers when there is no independent accounting? 

Just like the UK governement accounts are audited by the Audit Office, so are Thailands financial accounts audited:

 

http://www.oag.go.th/en/home

[chiang mai]

1 minute ago, Srikcir said:

So not a cyclic event.

Was cyclical, will be shrunk, will be cyclical thereafter once shrunk.

[joy16]

 

From this chart, you can see that the highest treasury reserves is in September every when all tax and revenue are collected from every sectors and then it will be decreased sharply every year. 

 

So. I think the low treasury reserves in this period of the year is normal.

 

And for the old news, I think they compare apple to orange because they can't compare TR in May vs TR in December or January.

Edited February 9, 2017 by joy16

[Eric Loh]

17 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

What's interesting Eric, is that the current government haven't tried to suppress this information, immediately deny it and/or issue several other conflicting sets of figures whilst claiming all are real, or simply told a few "white lies" to make the public "feel better".

The government was not forthcoming with the information too. It was leaked out by spokesman Sansern when answering a question on the financial health of the government. To counter a question that the government was going bankrupt, he blurted our a counter response that the government still have 74.9 B Baht in the reserves. That slip piqued the curiosity of an economic lecturer who told Sansern there was 420B Baht in the reserves. Then after comes a ton of excuses and white lies and a new treasury level set by the junta at between 50-100 B. Obviously, they know there are no ways they can pay back the reserves withdrawal. Obviously not normal as some here attest to. 

[joy16]

1 hour ago, Eric Loh said:

The government was not forthcoming with the information too. It was leaked out by spokesman Sansern when answering a question on the financial health of the government. To counter a question that the government was going bankrupt, he blurted our a counter response that the government still have 74.9 B Baht in the reserves. That slip piqued the curiosity of an economic lecturer who told Sansern there was 420B Baht in the reserves. Then after comes a ton of excuses and white lies and a new treasury level set by the junta at between 50-100 B. Obviously, they know there are no ways they can pay back the reserves withdrawal. Obviously not normal as some here attest to. 

I don't know why the economic lecturer commented like that. I think he should know that TR in May usually higher than TR in Dec or Jan and it can't comparable. He should wait and compare it with the same month except he has an other agenda.

Edited February 9, 2017 by joy16

[elgordo38]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

The reserves have been spent stimulating the economy and, more importantly, for implementing national reforms, the government said.

How can they really say this with a straight face. Most of the money was chewed up buying military hardware. 

[chiang mai]

4 minutes ago, elgordo38 said:

How can they really say this with a straight face. Most of the money was chewed up buying military hardware. 

 

That's a different account, the military hardware was budgeted for hence it doesn't come out of the reserves.

[elgordo38]

18 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

 

That's a different account, the military hardware was budgeted for hence it doesn't come out of the reserves.

Would be interesting to know how many of these "accounts" are in existence. 

[chiang mai]

2 hours ago, elgordo38 said:

Would be interesting to know how many of these "accounts" are in existence. 

The budget doesn't show the entire chart of accounts but it will give you a fair idea if you care to read it, conservatively I would say there are hundred of different accounts, if not thousands (not all backed up by individual bank accounts however)..

 

http://www.bb.go.th/budget_book/e-Book2559/FILEROOM/CABILIBRARY59/DRAWER01/GENERAL/DATA0000/inBrief2016.pdf

[elgordo38]

Just now, chiang mai said:

The budget doesn't show the entire chart of accounts but it will give you a fair idea if you care to read it, conservatively I would say there are hundred of different accounts, if not thousands (not all backed up by individual bank accounts however)..

 

http://www.bb.go.th/budget_book/e-Book2559/FILEROOM/CABILIBRARY59/DRAWER01/GENERAL/DATA0000/inBrief2016.pdf

I can always depend on you to come through with the facts (one of my admitted weak spots) I feel a circle of trust forming. 

[chiang mai]

6 minutes ago, elgordo38 said:

I can always depend on you to come through with the facts (one of my admitted weak spots) I feel a circle of trust forming. 

Go see Dr Morgan and get a shot before it develops into something serious.

[Eric Loh]

4 hours ago, joy16 said:

I don't know why the economic lecturer commented like that. I think he should know that TR in May usually higher than TR in Dec or Jan and it can't comparable. He should wait and compare it with the same month except he has an other agenda.

 

Dr Decharut is well known as a social critic and is not aligned to any colors. Apparently he is concern by the piling of borrowings. Even the monthly average 2017 deficit of this junta government is much higher than previous governments. Mind you, the years that the junta took power, the annual average deficits was 17% compare to 12.6% of previous governments. It speak of poor financial planning and discipline. We got to thank him for exposing such information and not wait until irreparable damage to the financial health. The junta will never disclose anything. Hopefully this awareness will cause the junta to be more discipline with spending public money. If they overspend and pile up the borrowings, the public will have to bear the burden of higher tax and possibly VAT. Already happening with the sudden increase in jet fuel duties.  

[chiang mai]

4 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

 

Dr Decharut is well known as a social critic and is not aligned to any colors. Apparently he is concern by the piling of borrowings. Even the monthly average 2017 deficit of this junta government is much higher than previous governments. Mind you, the years that the junta took power, the annual average deficits was 17% compare to 12.6% of previous governments. It speak of poor financial planning and discipline. We got to thank him for exposing such information and not wait until irreparable damage to the financial health. The junta will never disclose anything. Hopefully this awareness will cause the junta to be more discipline with spending public money. If they overspend and pile up the borrowings, the public will have to bear the burden of higher tax and possibly VAT. Already happening with the sudden increase in jet fuel duties.  

That is untrue!

 

The deficits for previous years are as follows:

 

2009 = -4.8

2010 = -2.7

2011 = -1.3

2012 = -4.1

2013 = -2.5

2014 = -2.5

2015 = -2.5

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/government-budget

 

[Eric Loh]

3 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

That is untrue!

 

The deficits for previous years are as follows:

 

2009 = -4.8

2010 = -2.7

2011 = -1.3

2012 = -4.1

2013 = -2.5

2014 = -2.5

2015 = -2.5

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/government-budget

 

I was referring to annual budget deficits as a percentage of state revenue. 

[chiang mai]

4 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

I was referring to annual budget deficits as a percentage of state revenue. 

Well the numbers I posted are annual budget deficits as a percentage of GDP so I've no idea what you're trying to calculate or how, but I'm willing to bet it's wrong and biased.

[chainarong]

8 hours ago, chiang mai said:

That graph is just the Treasury Reserve account it is not the annual budget.

If you don't have any reserves you don't have a budget.

[chiang mai]

1 minute ago, chainarong said:

If you don't have any reserves you don't have a budget.

Yes, and?

 

I'm saying that is not the ENTIRE budget.

[Eric Loh]

3 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

Well the numbers I posted are annual budget deficits as a percentage of GDP so I've no idea what you're trying to calculate or how, but I'm willing to bet it's wrong and biased.

Try reading and research more. He need all the help.