Many constructions are left half finished since Russians left . very sad.

[JSixpack]

1 hour ago, scubascuba3 said:

Predicting a crash in any country is difficult, always takes longer than expected

 

Yep, still waitin' for the great currency crash as predicted in 1973 by the great currency guru, Dr. Franz Pick, based on thorough research. This will be a wonderful time for those holding baht and assets in baht, which suggests one should buy Thai real estate ASAP. It's gotta happen sometime, right? You gonna trust Dr. Pick or an ace TVF economist (excluding member midas, who's still with Dr. PIck)?

 

 

No doubt Dr. Pick made a fortune from his scaremongering, even had his own publishing company to churn it out. Similarly our old keyboard warriors get a lot of cred from the peanut gallery for discovering some empty shop houses or abandoned projects (which have always existed in Pattaya), surfing the internet for global doom signals (never lacking), knockin' back a few Changs and pecking out their Pattaya Perpetual Death Spiral prognostications, comforting room renters and giving themselves an illusory sense of expertise & importance. And waiting in gleeful anticipation of that golden "I told you so" moment, which may come in the next 20 years, hopefully before Wat Chai receives their old carcasses anyway.

 

In the meantime, if you've got the dosh, are going to live here long term, maybe permanently, and want to enjoy having your own place, then, after due diligence, any time's a good time to buy. If you're a speculator, you've got the dosh and know the risks. If you're an idiot, then nothing's going to protect you anyway.

Edited April 23, 2017 by JSixpack

[tropo]

5 minutes ago, JSixpack said:

  If you're an idiot, then nothing's going to protect you anyway.

 

LOL> that's my problem. When I arrived over 11 years ago I should have bought something. I never expected to be here so long. I've spent about 3.3 million on rent so far, with nothing to show for it.

[scubascuba3]

 
Yep, still waitin' for the great currency crash as predicted in 1973 by the great currency guru, Dr. Franz Pick, based on thorough research. This will be a wonderful time for those holding baht and assets in baht, which suggests one should buy Thai real estate ASAP. It's gotta happen sometime, right? You gonna trust Dr. Pick or an ace TVF economist (excluding member midas, who's still with Dr. PIck)?
 

 
No doubt Dr. Pick made a fortune from his scaremongering, even had his own publishing company to churn it out. Similarly our old keyboard warriors get a lot of cred from the peanut gallery for discovering some empty shop houses or abandoned projects (which have always existed in Pattaya), surfing the internet for global doom signals (never lacking), knockin' back a few Changs and pecking out their Pattaya Perpetual Death Spiral prognostications, comforting room renters and giving themselves an illusory sense of expertise & importance. And waiting in gleeful anticipation of that golden "I told you so" moment, which may come in the next 20 years, hopefully before Wat Chai receives their old carcasses anyway.
 
In the meantime, if you've got the dosh, are going to live here long term, maybe permanently, and want to enjoy having your own place, then, after due diligence, any time's a good time to buy. [emoji2] If you're a speculator, you've got the dosh and know the risks. If you're an idiot, then nothing's going to protect you anyway.

Crashes do happen, remember in 1997 baht went from 37 to 90 to the pound.

My feeling about property in Pattaya is its on the way down if people want to sell. If you want to sit on it for years don't drop the price. I doubt people are buying for an investment anymore

[Asiantravel]

44 minutes ago, JSixpack said:

 

Yep, still waitin' for the great currency crash as predicted in 1973 by the great currency guru, Dr. Franz Pick, based on thorough research. This will be a wonderful time for those holding baht and assets in baht, which suggests one should buy Thai real estate ASAP. It's gotta happen sometime, right? You gonna trust Dr. Pick or an ace TVF economist (excluding member midas, who's still with Dr. PIck)?

 

 

No doubt Dr. Pick made a fortune from his scaremongering, even had his own publishing company to churn it out. Similarly our old keyboard warriors get a lot of cred from the peanut gallery for discovering some empty shop houses or abandoned projects (which have always existed in Pattaya), surfing the internet for global doom signals (never lacking), knockin' back a few Changs and pecking out their Pattaya Perpetual Death Spiral prognostications, comforting room renters and giving themselves an illusory sense of expertise & importance. And waiting in gleeful anticipation of that golden "I told you so" moment, which may come in the next 20 years, hopefully before Wat Chai receives their old carcasses anyway.

 

In the meantime, if you've got the dosh, are going to live here long term, maybe permanently, and want to enjoy having your own place, then, after due diligence, any time's a good time to buy. If you're a speculator, you've got the dosh and know the risks. If you're an idiot, then nothing's going to protect you anyway.

 

These were your own infamous words some time ago in a different thread but regarding the same subject

 

“  we don't actually know how many unsold condos there are, we know there're too many for what we've determined as optimal “

 

hardly a great recipe for prudent “investing “ is it?

 

the best we can estimate is 17,000 condominiums as being available which was quoted in a research report by Colliers International. and at worst 60,000  was quoted by Knight Frank in their research report .

 

Quite simply many people right now might consider the reward isn’t worth the risk to buy property i.e do nothing and rent and simply wait on the sidelines until there are far more signs of political and economic stability in Thailand. And what’s wrong with that?

Rational individuals always consider their potential downside first. Fear of loss should be far greater than the fear of missing out.

[Asiantravel]

14 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Crashes do happen, remember in 1997 baht went from 37 to 90 to the pound.

My feeling about property in Pattaya is its on the way down if people want to sell. If you want to sit on it for years don't drop the price. I doubt people are buying for an investment anymore

indeed there might not be a sudden drop in values if that is someone's definition of a crash. Instead prices might decrease slowly over a long period of time but I still see no benefit  owning any asset under those conditions particularly when there would be no way of knowing where is the bottom.

[JSixpack]

4 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Crashes do happen, remember in 1997 baht went from 37 to 90 to the pound.

 

I remember that and the outpouring of doom prophecies. Instead, with some highly visible exceptions (inevitable), it turned out something of a boom for foreign property buyers. Our doomsters, who only understand buy-and-hold, naively assume everything stays static and that's IT. THE END. Justice finally served as Thailand now returns to the Stone Age! Actually the gov't took appropriate measures, even changed the condo law, markets adjusted (Thais really aren't fools), and the economy recovered nicely as the baht floated into economically justifiable valuations. So, anyone who realized that recovery follows crashes could have made some good money, as our ace economists didn't and so we find them whinging about inflation in bar fines and room rent on Soi Buakhao. 

 

Quote

My feeling about property in Pattaya is its on the way down if people want to sell. If you want to sit on it for years don't drop the price. I doubt people are buying for an investment anymore

 

You'll find plenty of company around here among our renters.

[JSixpack]

36 minutes ago, Asiantravel said:

 

These were your own infamous words some time ago in a different thread but regarding the same subject

 

“  we don't actually know how many unsold condos there are, we know there're too many for what we've determined as optimal “

 

hardly a great recipe for prudent “investing “ is it?

 

But as you're not an investor and don't know much about the market, then let's let the real investors decide for themselves, as they know their own tolerance for risk. If you can't tolerate any, then just stuff your cash under your mattress, man. Who cares?

 

No, that "we" was a little too subtle for you. That assumed the consensus viewpoint of our ace TVF economists and their large contingent of renters. Yes, that's exactly the view propounded in all the CONDO GLUT threads for the last decade or more. Now it's easy to feel there's a condo glut, and I have myself since the Russian market fell, but then as I noted earlier, adjustments take place. Now the Russians are coming back, more Chinese are buying, and one report noted developers were going to hold back a bit in Pattaya. If they do then the uptake should dry up the excess if there really is any, but the implication is then that prices won't fall. 

 

Quote

Quite simply many people right now might consider the reward isn’t worth the risk to buy property i.e do nothing and rent and simply wait on the sidelines until there are far more signs of political and economic stability in Thailand. And what’s wrong with that?

 

Addressed above.

 

Quote

Rational individuals always consider their potential downside first. Fear of loss should be far greater than the fear of missing out.

 

1. Yes, or last, but before putting down the money. 2. Not necessarily, and depends on resources available, as KittenKong explained for you earlier. Simple-mindedness, timidity, tea leave reading, and mistaking one's own ignorance for expertise means inevitably missing out and later complaining about bar fines and prices of rooms over on Soi Buakhao and dreaming that a Condo Crash will lead to the opportunity buy a cheap penthouse Just Any Day Now.

 

Edited April 23, 2017 by JSixpack

[JSixpack]

34 minutes ago, Asiantravel said:

indeed there might not be a sudden drop in values if that is someone's definition of a crash. Instead prices might decrease slowly over a long period of time but I still see no benefit  owning any asset under those conditions particularly when there would be no way of knowing where is the bottom.

 

Or there might not be a sudden uptick in values, if that is someone's definition of boom. Instead prices might increase slowly over a long period of time so that the benefit owning any asset under those conditions would be unquantifiable as there would be no way of knowing where is the top.

[Pattaya46]

44 minutes ago, Asiantravel said:

the best we can estimate is 17,000 condominiums as being available which was quoted in a research report by Colliers International. and at worst 60,000  was quoted by Knight Frank in their research report .

You fully distorted the article.

It was an article from the 14 Nov 2016 on the property.bangkokpost.com, so I can't put the link here but Google will help you if you search for "Excess supply, tepid demand dent sales in Pattaya"

- The 17'000 number was about the number of units "available" including all projects "launched", even if nothing has been build yet, and thousands in this case...

- Excluding the "projects" and the 5'000 units under construction, there would be less than 10'000 units really available to buy

- The article also said that "the total number of condo units in Pattaya was 70'577" so I really doubt that 60'000 could be available or Pattaya would be in serious trouble 

 

Edited April 23, 2017 by Pattaya46

[scubascuba3]

 
You'll find plenty of company around here among our renters. [emoji6]

I've been following the market for the last 6 months in Pattaya and what I've noticed is prices are pretty static, people hold out as long as possible then there's a rogue condo for sale at a big discount. Hipflat seems pretty good.

[Asiantravel]

40 minutes ago, JSixpack said:

 

But as you're not an investor and don't know much about the market, then let's let the real investors decide for themselves, as they know their own tolerance for risk. If you can't tolerate any, then just stuff your cash under your mattress, man. Who cares?

 

No, that "we" was a little too subtle for you. That assumed the consensus viewpoint of our ace TVF economists and their large contingent of renters. Yes, that's exactly the view propounded in all the CONDO GLUT threads for the last decade or more. Now it's easy to feel there's a condo glut, and I have myself since the Russian market fell, but then as I noted earlier, adjustments take place. Now the Russians are coming back, more Chinese are buying, and one report noted developers were going to hold back a bit in Pattaya. If they do then the uptake should dry up the excess if there really is any, but the implication is then that prices won't fall. 

 

 

Addressed above.

 

 

1. Yes, or last, but before putting down the money. 2. Not necessarily, and depends on resources available, as KittenKong explained for you earlier. Simple-mindedness, timidity, tea leave reading, and mistaking one's own ignorance for expertise means inevitably missing out and later complaining about bar fines and prices of rooms over on Soi Buakhao and dreaming that a Condo Crash will lead to the opportunity buy a cheap penthouse Just Any Day Now.

 

 In your first sentence you declared I am not an investor so obviously I’m not talking about myself and yes indeed let other investors decide regarding their own risk profile themselves. But where is the evidence that there has been any dramatic change to the oversupply figures published by two leading property consulting companies ? so that would suggest that such other investors are erring on the risk averse side also at the moment.

[Asiantravel]

49 minutes ago, JSixpack said:

 

Or there might not be a sudden uptick in values, if that is someone's definition of boom. Instead prices might increase slowly over a long period of time so that the benefit owning any asset under those conditions would be unquantifiable as there would be no way of knowing where is the top.

As according to you I don’t know much about the market can you please help me understand exactly which economic fundamentals right now would contribute to conditions that would result in result in continued slow price increases over a long period of time? I’m really looking forward to being educated by you on this matter.

and I previously posted a number of links showing this same phenomenon is happening in a number of countries neighbouring Thailand.

Bottom line is should we ignore the warnings issued by the likes of  the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).?

 

Fears of a 'massive' global property price fall amid 'dangerous' conditions and market slow-down

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/02/fears-massive-global-property-price-crash-amid-dangerous-conditions/

Edited April 23, 2017 by Asiantravel

[Asiantravel]

33 minutes ago, Pattaya46 said:

You fully distorted the article.

It was an article from the 14 Nov 2016 on the property.bangkokpost.com, so I can't put the link here but Google will help you if you search for "Excess supply, tepid demand dent sales in Pattaya"

- The 17'000 number was about the number of units "available" including all projects "launched", even if nothing has been build yet, and thousands in this case...

- Excluding the "projects" and the 5'000 units under construction, there would be less than 10'000 units really available to buy

- The article also said that "the total number of condo units in Pattaya was 70'577" so I really doubt that 60'000 could be available or Pattaya would be in serious trouble 

 

No the figures were taken directly from the reports of the two property consulting companies.

But the very fact there is such a huge disparity and that the methodology and indeed what each set of figures clearly represents is cause for concern in itself.

[JSixpack]

16 minutes ago, Asiantravel said:

But the very fact there is such a huge disparity and that the methodology and indeed what each set of figures clearly represents is cause for concern in itself.

 

Which in turn leads to cause for concern among your disciples that you're basing your ace Pattaya property market forecasts on such figures without actually knowing what the figures represente.

[JSixpack]

21 minutes ago, Asiantravel said:

As according to you I don’t know much about the market can you please help me understand exactly which economic fundamentals

 

It's too late, even were it possible . . . and would spoil so much fun. :) It's been tried before with no success.

Edited April 23, 2017 by JSixpack

[Asiantravel]

3 minutes ago, JSixpack said:

 

Which in turn leads to cause for concern among your disciples that you're basing your ace Pattaya property market forecasts on such figures without actually knowing what the figures represente.

no  I'm also carefully looking at what is happening simultaneously in adjoining countries such as Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore (where prices have actually fallen quite noticeably)where there are also huge oversupply problems.

[Asiantravel]

5 minutes ago, JSixpack said:

 

It's too late, even were it possible . . . and would spoil so much fun. :) It's been tried before with no success.

like biting into cotton candy.......................

[JSixpack]

2 minutes ago, Asiantravel said:

no  I'm also carefully looking at what is happening simultaneously in adjoining countries such as Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore (where prices have actually fallen quite noticeably)where there are also huge oversupply problems.

 

Miami, man. Critical!

[JSixpack]

59 minutes ago, Asiantravel said:

 But where is the evidence that there has been any dramatic change to the oversupply figures published by two leading property consulting companies ? so that would suggest that such other investors are erring on the risk averse side also at the moment.

 

But where is your answer to " Who's "they" and who would believe it if "they" did? Give us some references with that promise of never. " And when's the Crash coming?

 

Where is the evidence (of most concern to our renters) that the oversupply figures are leading to your prophesied Condo Crash? What's the rate of price increase and when is the Crash? I mean, in the next 20 - 50 years. You see, as the CRASH forecaster, the burden of proof is on you to show there is in fact an overall decrease in prices, not just blow hot air about why there's supposed to be a decrease, which we've heard in every CONDO GLUT thread for the last decade or so.

 

In fact tropo just gave the reality from the ground, not from your little internet connection.

 

Where is the evidence that the supposed oversupply figures accurate or rather less inaccurate? In fact another developer was pretty bullish recently. That was of course sneered at by our ace TVF economists. I'd say your learned economic prognostications should be published over in the Jobs, economy, banking, business, investments where they'll be properly appreciated rather than merely wasted and laughed at here. Member Heng is a real estate investor, knows what he's talking about, and can enlighten you as to what's really going on.

 

So, just boils down to the usual hot air on your part and you're ready to surf into the usual non sequiturs and irrelevancy. Hope you've enjoyed the needed attention and I enjoyed a few more laughs. Cheers from the balcony.

 

Edited April 23, 2017 by JSixpack

[KittenKong]

I dont follow house prices here at all as I'm not interested in living in one, but as far as condo rental and advertised sale prices in my building go there definitely seems to have been a downwards movement in the last couple of years.

[guzzi850m2]

If you want to live here long term and have a family here (I do) I see no other option than buying.

 

We bought our current house in 2009 for just under 8mill and have perhaps spend another 1 mill on it (incl some furniture) and are pretty good set now.

 

I read in another topic about one that was so careful/scared living in Thailand that he had a suitcase packed and ready to head to the airport with 1 hour notice and fly out, never to come back. Almost living like a criminal, always looking over your shoulder. 

 

I don't want to live like that, I been here permanently since 2004 and this is my home now and I live accordingly.  

 

That being said, my pension fond(s) sits outside Thailand, still growing (I am still working) and I could theoretically also leave quickly if I had to and survive. 

 

If you read Tropo's post; he wrote that he spend +3mill on rent in 11 years, okay giving him a roof over his head but not much else.

 

I would say it's okay to spend app 25% of your amassed fortune to buy a place here if you plan to stay longer than 10 years here but you have to plan extremely careful before buying anything and ask yourself some questions first: Is this area of my choice a nice place also in 10 years time?  Can I rent my place out if I can't sell it? Can I survive if I loose my place in case of natural disasters/war?   

 

Don't buy a house here unless you got kids or have a wife you really really love, a 30 year lease is; well a lease (long term rent in other words). My wife & son will get my place when I go 6 feet under, I am very likely the first of the 3 of us to check out permanently(well I sure as hell hope so), he-he.

 

My 2 cents.   

 

 

[bkk6060]

Some good points made on here.  The big problem for me is all the unknown about the health of the current market.  Can anyone find any accurate information on sales over the past 5 or 10 years?  How about a current multiple listing service?  How about a biggie which is length of time units on the market before sale, and empty or unfinished units.

I cannot find any of this.  Maybe it is my issue as I had houses in California and most of the stats were pretty accurate.  This place is a crap shoot guessing game.

I know more people that are trying to sell then buy.  They have terrible neighbors, bought w/o doing location research and now are hit with bar or band noise until 2 or 3 am, building maintenance that is terrible, or they need the money.  

Also, do you buyers know the process of what will happen to your place after you die?  I have been told it is fairly complicated not something I want to put my family through.

I would never buy but also have a very good monthly income so why tie up my capital?  Also, you cannot leverage your money here with a loan.

With this, not trying to brag I inherited $80,000 a few years ago and I did have a thought to buy here.  Risky I know but I bought one of the high tech stocks and the thing has shot up 80%.   How much has real estate gone up here?  

I guess my point is rents I think are pretty inexpensive here.  For $400 a month you can get a decent place.   It seems to me if you manage your capital correctly, you will do much better financially to rent here.  But, some people like my ex-wife have an "always have to own" mentality. I just hope it all works out.

Edited April 24, 2017 by bkk6060

[JSixpack]

36 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

I know more people that are trying to sell then buy.  They have terrible neighbors, bought w/o doing location research and now are hit with bar or band noise until 2 or 3 am, building maintenance that is terrible, or they need the money.

 

Most owners are happy enough w/ their properties, contrary to the bewilderment, foreboding, sour grapes, and scaremongering on the part of our renters here. I'm not saying ecstatic, mind you.

 

Quote

 Also, do you buyers know the process of what will happen to your place after you die?  I have been told it is fairly complicated not something I want to put my family through.

 

Your Will gets probated. Mine hasn't been yet but I'm sure your family won't find the process terribly onerous; more knowledgeable members can weigh in on this. 'Course, before you kick off, you can put everything in their names.

 

Quote

I would never buy

 

Then point's moot, ain't it. Slow day?

 

Quote

Risky I know but I bought one of the high tech stocks and the thing has shot up 80%.   How much has real estate gone up here?

 

Shares prices are a lot more volatile as you know, and share certificates would make a poor roof over your head. That is, you're comparing apples & oranges. What shows the hypocrisy and mere bluster of our CONDO CRASH doomsters, BTW, is that if they really believed in their forecasts, then they'd short property and construction-related shares on the SET. But they aren't doing so of course.

 

Quote

  It seems to me if you manage your capital correctly, you will do much better financially to rent here.

 

Well, maybe, or maybe not. It just all depends.

 

Edited April 24, 2017 by JSixpack

[scubascuba3]

 
Well, maybe, or maybe not. It just all depends. [emoji6]
 

Opposite of the doomsters though is the guys trying to talk up the market, developers, estate agents and those already bought. Anyone on the ground can see its different now to a couple of years ago. Many people wouldn't touch off plan any more, that must have a knock on effect.

[JSixpack]

4 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Opposite of the doomsters though is the guys trying to talk up the market, developers, estate agents and those already bought. Anyone on the ground can see its different now to a couple of years ago. Many people wouldn't touch off plan any more, that must have a knock on effect.

 

Well, our renters and doomsters will label any neutral party as a real estate agent--the ultimate insult in the vast TVF arsenal, the usual resort to name calling in the absence of rational argument. The Received Wisdom is that all owners are desperate to sell, even hanging out in bars trying to find buyers. Good laugh but such comforting tripe doesn't help credibility. Moreover, owners will be happy to tell you what they don't like about ownership as well, and they do sometimes here--a few out of the vast number in Pattaya. It wouldn't occur to them to try talk up the market as they'd quite rightly have no reason to believe they could possibly do so AND they bought for the long term anyway. Any negative point related will, however, be seized upon as grist for the mill.

 

Meanwhile, we have tropo's report from the ground, which seems to (cough!) contradict some of the hot air around here.

 

Buying off plan in this Third World country has ALWAYS been a risk and only for the well-heeled or foolhardy. Nothing new there at all. In fact you may cue the mighty Ocean 1 Chorus now to chant the chant. Whether there's been any increase in caution is entirely a matter of speculation. Maybe there has been or not. Who cares?

 

 

[Seizetheday]

6 hours ago, JSixpack said:

 

Well, our renters and doomsters will label any neutral party as a real estate agent--the ultimate insult in the vast TVF arsenal, the usual resort to name calling in the absence of rational argument. The Received Wisdom is that all owners are desperate to sell, even hanging out in bars trying to find buyers. Good laugh but such comforting tripe doesn't help credibility. Moreover, owners will be happy to tell you what they don't like about ownership as well, and they do sometimes here--a few out of the vast number in Pattaya. It wouldn't occur to them to try talk up the market as they'd quite rightly have no reason to believe they could possibly do so AND they bought for the long term anyway. Any negative point related will, however, be seized upon as grist for the mill.

 

Meanwhile, we have tropo's report from the ground, which seems to (cough!) contradict some of the hot air around here.

 

Buying off plan in this Third World country has ALWAYS been a risk and only for the well-heeled or foolhardy. Nothing new there at all. In fact you may cue the mighty Ocean 1 Chorus now to chant the chant. Whether there's been any increase in caution is entirely a matter of speculation. Maybe there has been or not. Who cares?

 

 

Yes, it's obvious that the depreciation of the Aussie dollar, GBP, Euro and Rouble in the last 5 years has had absolutely no effect on the Thai property market. Any neutral will tell you that!!!

[galt67]

Why? will this supposed 'crash' happen...?

 

Simple 'oversupply' is NOT the answer in Pattaya where the majority (most?) of the residential properties are owned 'mortgage/debt' free.

 

Having lived in cities with (and read about) other 'property crashes' going back to the 1920s the common element is 'leverage' (mortgages/debt) which is NOT the case in Pattaya.

 

Bottom line: What's going to 'force' multitudes of property owners to 'suddenly' sell?

[tropo]

On 4/24/2017 at 11:38 AM, JSixpack said:

 

On 4/24/2017 at 11:38 AM, JSixpack said:

  It seems to me if you manage your capital correctly, you will do much better financially to rent here.

 

 

Well, maybe, or maybe not. It just all depends.

 

 

Here's another point not usually considered in the rent or buy debate...

 

Would you be able to afford a place that you would be very happy living in? For example, all the places I've rented so far have been worth over 6 million on the market. I wouldn't be happy living in a cheap place. I've been renting places I couldn't have afforded to buy. Even if I could afford a place I would like to live in, would I want to invest that much money in Thailand?

 

If I had bought a cheap place, and lived in it, my standard of living would have been lower, therefore my rent payments have not been totally wasted. Lifestyle counts for something. How much it counts depends on the individual.

 

I did consider buying a cheap place a few years back but decided I wouldn't be happy living in it.

[tropo]

17 hours ago, Seizetheday said:

Yes, it's obvious that the depreciation of the Aussie dollar, GBP, Euro and Rouble in the last 5 years has had absolutely no effect on the Thai property market. Any neutral will tell you that!!!

 

I'm sure it has some knock-on effect. For example, some foreigners will consider selling their place for a baht loss due to gains (since they bought) in converting the proceeds back to their own currency. 

[JSixpack]

17 hours ago, Seizetheday said:

Yes, it's obvious that the depreciation of the Aussie dollar, GBP, Euro and Rouble in the last 5 years has had absolutely no effect on the Thai property market. Any neutral will tell you that!!!

 

Personally I believe the depreciations must have had some effect. Unfortunately, however, they merely call into further question the expertise and prescience of our ace TVF economists, who follow the Standard Model, i. e., the classical TVF Poster Golden Egg Layers Theory Of Thai Economics. (More about that here: https://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/936844-pattaya-going-downhill/?page=31#comment-11359895) The Model predicts that the shortage of critical Golden Eggs must spell the long-predicted Collapse Of The Thai Economy (and return to the Stone Age). Certainly the baht, in such a mismanaged, stupid economy with high bar fines (despite so many ace TVF economists' sneers and advice over decades), must depreciate into utter worthlessness far further than the well-managed, intelligent, Western Golden Egg currencies. Finally: JUSTICE!

 

Alas. Thai economy continued doing OK, baht didn't depreciate, and crucially the long-predicted, gleefully anticipated, great CONDO CRASH didn't happen either. Wot? So then the real question--which you ignored--is what has been the visible effect of the Golden Eggs shortage? Most simply that real estate prices didn't appreciate as fast as they might have otherwise, but then we also have to consider the even greater supply too (wot?). As the Standard Model, where Fixed Pie is a fundamental principle, can't account for this, our ace economists will often fall back to "money laundering"--without explaining the new sources of extra money being laundered (not simply printed, as inflation's low and baht strong). Always amusing, no?

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 25, 2017 by JSixpack