Sturgeon says autumn 2018 would be 'common sense' date for independence referendum - BBC

[goldenbrwn1]

She will get her personal ambition granted. But I doubt very much until after the UK has left the EU. Once the negotiations have finished , the people of Scotland will have a better idea of where the UK stands after Brexit and therefore be able to make a much more informed decision instead of just listening to and going by what both sides think will happen.   My family will be voting to remain in the UK no matter what happens after Brexit, like 90% of Scots I know. They can actually see through that beady eyed nut truck.  Glasgow will be the only place that may vote leave overall but we all know what that's about....

 

 

[dabhand]

Latest poll, issued by Ipsos Mori, shows the Yes vote in a narrow 51/49 lead. Their best showing for about nine months. Can expect Sturgeon and her chums to up the rhetoric - if that is even possible.

 

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask#table

[dabhand]

Double post

Edited March 10, 2017 by dabhand

[dunroaming]

I think that Autumn 2018 makes perfect sense.  By then we should all have a better idea of where the divorce negotiations are taking us.  It also makes the UK government aware that if they are failing to deliver the goods on Brexit that Scotland my well choose to leave.  It could be seen as a veiled threat but actually I can't see anything veiled about it.  I do think that leaving it a little longer until the finish line is in view would be more prudent but late in 2018 will do.

[RuamRudy]

  My family will be voting to remain in the UK no matter what happens after Brexit, like 90% of Scots I know. They can actually see through that beady eyed nut truck.  Glasgow will be the only place that may vote leave overall but we all know what that's about....
 
 

What is the reason Glasgow will vote yes? What about the other regions that voted yes last time? Has being in the UK got so much better since 2014 that you think they will have had a change of heart?

[Galactus]

fully support Scottish independence! time has come for Scottish people to decide their own fate and stand on their own feet!

while trying to be independent, they should get all the oil fields close to Scotland as well and claim their rights for all natural resources around there.

 

[Baerboxer]

On 3/9/2017 at 2:48 PM, RuamRudy said:

 

I wasn't sold on this 'back of the queue' story that was spun a few weeks ago. Any suggestion that Scotland would need to wait until the prior applicants were fully processed before it could be admitted to the EU is clearly incorrect.

 

As for Albania, I think the structural / corruption issues that continue to bedevil the country are a significant issue in their ongoing EU application. Scotland, on the other hand, is already in the EU, has EU laws enshrined in its own laws and has been a fully functioning member (albeit as part of a larger member) for years so the obstacles to overcome will be negligible in comparison.  

 

No Scotland isn't in the EU. Scotland is not a sovereign country nor does it posses EU membership. Scotland, as a member of the UK is a member of the EU as the UK is currently a member.

The EU have made it abundantly clear that an independent Scotland, should it wish to apply for membership, would be treated like any new applicant. It would have to agree to accept the Euro, Schengen, and the jurisdiction of EU law and meet the applicable financial criteria for new members. Once all things were met there would still need to be a positive vote from all member states. Any one could potentially block entry if they wished so.

 

I don't know if applications are processed sequentially or simultaneously so can't comment. But, Scotland will have to meet the stricter financial criteria and as yet the SNP have not said how they will do that.

[Baerboxer]

57 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

 

What is the reason Glasgow will vote yes? What about the other regions that voted yes last time? Has being in the UK got so much better since 2014 that you think they will have had a change of heart?

 

 

I don't know about the other regions but for Glasgow a considerable number of nationalists have Irish Catholic roots and simply hate the English and anything English.

 

It's time the UK as a whole voted on such matters. 

[Baerboxer]

1 hour ago, dunroaming said:

I think that Autumn 2018 makes perfect sense.  By then we should all have a better idea of where the divorce negotiations are taking us.  It also makes the UK government aware that if they are failing to deliver the goods on Brexit that Scotland my well choose to leave.  It could be seen as a veiled threat but actually I can't see anything veiled about it.  I do think that leaving it a little longer until the finish line is in view would be more prudent but late in 2018 will do.

 

I don't think it's up to Sturgeon, or the 8% of the population of the UK in Scotland to dictate to the 92% what they think is best for them and sod everyone else. 

 

Time the UK government manned up and told Sturgeon the realities. 

[7by7]

7 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

Clearly many more Scots feel differently to your friends:

 

STV poll: Half of Scots would vote for independence

 In a different topic you rubbished a recent poll saying the opposite!

 

Are polls reliable when you agree with the results; but unreliable when you don't?

[dunroaming]

I doubt that Scotland would vote to leave if the referendum were held next week or next month.  Too many unknowns.  That is why I think that postponing it until 2018 makes sense for sturgeon.  She will hope that May will be making a complete pigs ear of the negotiations and just hitting a brick wall with the EU.  Of course there is a chance that the EU may be crumbling by then which would take away the motivation to leave the UK.

[Baerboxer]

Just now, 7by7 said:

 In a different topic you rubbished a recent poll saying the opposite!

 

Are polls reliable when you agree with the results; but unreliable when you don't?

 

To be fair, he does the same with newspapers. Ones that support the nationalist view are ethical and simply following editorial policy. Ones that favor the union are denounces as a xenophobic rag that only prints propaganda.

 

Consistent.

 

 

[Baerboxer]

3 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

I doubt that Scotland would vote to leave if the referendum were held next week or next month.  Too many unknowns.  That is why I think that postponing it until 2018 makes sense for sturgeon.  She will hope that May will be making a complete pigs ear of the negotiations and just hitting a brick wall with the EU.  Of course there is a chance that the EU may be crumbling by then which would take away the motivation to leave the UK.

 

Sturgeon will wait until she thinks things are so favorable that she can win. In or out of the EU isn't really important to her. Her dream is a Scotland not connected to primarily England and the UK.

[Baerboxer]

4 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

There is no such thing as UK law, never has been. There are three distinct and different sets of law in the UK - Scots, English and Northern Irish. 

 

"Scots law is the legal system of Scotland. It is a hybrid or mixed legal system containing civil law and common law elements, that traces its roots to a number of different historical sources.[1][2][3] Together with English law and Northern Ireland law, it is one of the three legal systems of the United Kingdom.[4] It shares some elements with the two other systems, but it also has its own unique sources, institutions and nomina juris."

 

Think you'll find the second in your list is actually the Law of England and Wales. Unfortunate the source you fail to site is a little lazy in noting that.

 

UK statutes do apply in Scotland. But yes, in somethings, like selling houses, shop opening times, Scottish law is different.

[RuamRudy]

8 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

To be fair, he does the same with newspapers. Ones that support the nationalist view are ethical and simply following editorial policy. Ones that favor the union are denounces as a xenophobic rag that only prints propaganda.

 

Consistent.

 

 

Please, don't talk about me as if I am not here...

 

I think that, much like most other things Scottish, you are seeing things from a very polarised light. I make no apologies for calling the Express a xenophobic rag that deliberately fans the flames of extremism. Maybe you disagree, but the evidence, to me, is stark. However the Guardian also favours the union - I see no evidence of xenophobia there. Similarly, the Scotsman, the Herald and many others.

[Baerboxer]

Just now, RuamRudy said:

Please, don't talk about me as if I am not here...

 

I think that, much like most other things Scottish, you are seeing things from a very polarised light. I make no apologies for calling the Express a xenophobic rag that deliberately fans the flames of extremism. Maybe you disagree, but the evidence, to me, is stark. However the Guardian also favours the union - I see no evidence of xenophobia there. Similarly, the Scotsman, the Herald and many others.

 

But the papers that support the nationalist view - not changing you comments about them then?

[RuamRudy]

6 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Think you'll find the second in your list is actually the Law of England and Wales. Unfortunate the source you fail to site is a little lazy in noting that.

 

UK statutes do apply in Scotland. But yes, in somethings, like selling houses, shop opening times, Scottish law is different.

In your haste to attack me, why not try to be correct? English Law is the term used to describe the laws governing England and Wales. 

 

I appreciate that this is becoming personal, and that rather than trying to discuss the topic you are looking for reasons to criticise me on personal level; is this really the best you have to occupy yourself on a Friday evening?

[RuamRudy]

3 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

But the papers that support the nationalist view - not changing you comments about them then?

There aren't so many of those, but none of them, to my knowledge, can be accused of pandering to the extreme right. 

[dunroaming]

25 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Sturgeon will wait until she thinks things are so favorable that she can win. In or out of the EU isn't really important to her. Her dream is a Scotland not connected to primarily England and the UK.

But "In or out" of the EU is the vehicle she is riding and  the referendum result will heavily be influenced by that.   Without Brexit it is unlikely that can justify a second referendum at all, at least at the moment.

[7by7]

5 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

You should educate yourself a bit more - maybe you would realise that the notion of Scots being scroungers is so far from the truth:

 

"In every single one of the last 30 years, the amount of tax revenues generated per person in Scotland was greater than for the UK as a whole."

Salmond's figures compare Scotland to the UK average. Unfortunately I have not been able to find comparisons between revenue raised in each constituent country. But I am certain that they would show England's per capita contribution to be higher than Scotland's

 

The article is a look at Salmond's claim, made more than four years ago; showing that his claim contained many ifs, buts and maybes. The main one being how oil revenues are shared. Take oil completely out of the picture then the picture is very different.

 

Of course, even if one goes along with his desire that Scotland receives nearly all oil revenue, the drop in oil prices means the figures today would be very different. 

 

Tax revenue alone does not show the true picture; you have to include public expenditure as well.

From this Scotsman article about the financial year 2013/14.

Quote

Including North Sea oil saw total public sector revenue increase to £54bn, a figure that represented £10,100 per person, £400 more than the UK average. When the £400 extra per person raised north of the Border was subtracted from the £1,200 per person extra spending, Scotland remained £800 in the red.

 

Tax revenue alone does not show the true picture; you have to include public expenditure as well.

 

Public Expenditure by country and region

Quote

In 2015/16, public spending per head in the UK as a whole was £9,076. In England, it was £8,816 (3% below the UK average).  This compares with:

• Scotland: £10,536 (16% above the UK average)
• Wales: £9,996 (10% above the UK average)
• Northern Ireland £10,983 (21% above the UK average).

 

It is obvious that the SNP myth that Scottish tax payers are subsidising the rest of the UK is just that; a myth. 

 

Even if one takes Salmond's 2011/12 figures at face value,

 

It is only the Northern Irish who receive more government money per head than the Scots. 

 

 

Edited March 10, 2017 by 7by7
correct schoolboy error!

[Grouse]

I wonder if there is a religious element here?

 

TM is obviously a catholic (have we had a catholic PM before?)

 

Maybe she is anti Scots Presbyterianism and European Protestantism generally?

 

From an atheist point of view, all utter nonsense!

[sinbin]

Goodbye Scotland. Gone and soon forgotten.

[joecoolfrog]

What Sturgeon doesn't seem to realise is that 90% of the UK dont give a rats arse what she thinks. She can huff n puff as much as she likes but thats all she can do as she has no leverage left.

[joecoolfrog]

3 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

 

What is the reason Glasgow will vote yes? What about the other regions that voted yes last time? Has being in the UK got so much better since 2014 that you think they will have had a change of heart?

 

 

3 hours ago, Galactus said:

fully support Scottish independence! time has come for Scottish people to decide their own fate and stand on their own feet!

while trying to be independent, they should get all the oil fields close to Scotland as well and claim their rights for all natural resources around there.

 

As should the Shetland Islanders , correct ?

[goldenbrwn1]

8 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

 

What is the reason Glasgow will vote yes? What about the other regions that voted yes last time? Has being in the UK got so much better since 2014 that you think they will have had a change of heart?

 

 

7 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

I don't know about the other regions but for Glasgow a considerable number of nationalists have Irish Catholic roots and simply hate the English and anything English.

 

It's time the UK as a whole voted on such matters. 

The reason is just above.

[RuamRudy]

13 hours ago, 7by7 said:

Salmond's figures compare Scotland to the UK average. Unfortunately I have not been able to find comparisons between revenue raised in each constituent country. But I am certain that they would show England's per capita contribution to be higher than Scotland's

 

Whilst you may be certain of your belief, in the absence of any verifiable data to validate your certainty, it is meaningless. 

 

14 hours ago, 7by7 said:

The article is a look at Salmond's claim, made more than four years ago; showing that his claim contained many ifs, buts and maybes. The main one being how oil revenues are shared. Take oil completely out of the picture then the picture is very different.

 

Why would we take oil out of the picture? Will you also exclude the financial sector that is mainly resident in London? Oil is a contribution to the UK exchequer, mainly from Scotland, going back 40 years. You can exclude whatever you wish to make the figures represent that which you want to harp on about, but the facts remain the same. 

 

14 hours ago, 7by7 said:

Of course, even if one goes along with his desire that Scotland receives nearly all oil revenue, the drop in oil prices means the figures today would be very different. 

 

Of course - the oil price is a volatile and generally cyclical value, completely out of the control of the UK, but despite the several oil shocks in my lifetime, the UK has benefited significantly from Scottish oil fields. 

 

14 hours ago, 7by7 said:

It is obvious that the SNP myth that Scottish tax payers are subsidising the rest of the UK is just that; a myth. 

 

The SNP campaigned for the scrapping of the Barnett formula - blame Westminster for rejecting that one. 

[RuamRudy]

15 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

I don't know about the other regions but for Glasgow a considerable number of nationalists have Irish Catholic roots and simply hate the English and anything English.

 

I would be very interested in seeing the data that shows:

 

1) Glasgow having a large number of Irish catholics

2) Irish Catholics en-mass supporting independence for Scotland

3) Irish Catholics in Glasgow hating the English and anything English.

 

In the absence of such evidence, I am afraid that I will have to conclude that it is you espousing bigotry and hate speech.

[RuamRudy]

7 hours ago, goldenbrwn1 said:

 

The reason is just above.

I see no reason, simply ignorance and bigotry. 

[SpeakeasyThai]

16 hours ago, Galactus said:

fully support Scottish independence! time has come for Scottish people to decide their own fate and stand on their own feet!

while trying to be independent, they should get all the oil fields close to Scotland as well and claim their rights for all natural resources around there.

 

They already voted to stay with the UK. GAME OVER as they say.

[rockingrobin]

18 hours ago, goldenbrwn1 said:

She will get her personal ambition granted. But I doubt very much until after the UK has left the EU. Once the negotiations have finished , the people of Scotland will have a better idea of where the UK stands after Brexit and therefore be able to make a much more informed decision instead of just listening to and going by what both sides think will happen.   My family will be voting to remain in the UK no matter what happens after Brexit, like 90% of Scots I know. They can actually see through that beady eyed nut truck.  Glasgow will be the only place that may vote leave overall but we all know what that's about....

 

 

Scottish independence will have to take place before UK exit to ensure a smooth transition in maintaining EU membership, probably through Art 48