Exchange rate baht/sterling falls again - why?

[cliveshep]

The value of the £ is sliding badly again, previous gains wiped out. Is this because they are all afraid Labour will make enough gains for Corbyn and his Train-wreck sweetheart to win the election?

 

It's all rather worrying!

 

[vogie]

You are spot on Clive, if Labour get in I estimate 1baht to 1 pound.

Edited May 27, 2017 by vogie

[trd]

The value of the £ is sliding badly again, previous gains wiped out. Is this because they are all afraid Labour will make enough gains for Corbyn and his Train-wreck sweetheart to win the election?
 
It's all rather worrying!
 

Currencies are in pairs. The pound is rising against the US dollar, but the baht is rising against the pound and other currencies. It is baht strength not pound weakness over the last few days.

[vogie]

I'm not an expert, but does this make sense, a quote from a financial expert:-

 

Pound Sterling is the worst-performing currency amongst the world's top twenty currencies on Friday morning on news that the UK Conservative party are on track to lose the upcoming election based on recent momentum in the public's voting intentions ahead of the June 8 poll.

[swissie]

Short term this "Labour-Scare" has it's effect.

Longer term, the hopes of re-juvenating the commonwealth (compensating for trade-losses with the EU) is not realistic.
So, the BP is likely to remain under pressure for the foreseeable future.

Of course, the BP weakening even more, at some point, British exports will become very competitive. This putting a floor under the BP at some point. At some lower level the BP WILL stabilize

.
Not much consolation for British expats, depending on monthly pension-moneyes from the UK.
- I still keep in touch with my UK Expat-Friends in Thailand. Most are able and willing to reduce their "standart of living" if necessary to compensate. No "mass-exodus" of Brits as far as I can see. Just my observances, not an official poll.
Cheers.

[puck2]

Don't forget that exchange rates depend on politics too. Not only on British, but also on world politics. Especially on the politics „created“ by the new air-headed POTUS (hot air inside, but no substance).

 

On May 25 there was the Nato meeting in Brussels. On the same day, the Thai Baht won against the mayor Western currencies, not only against the GBP.   SCB --->

 

 

The world realises now that you cannot trust the POTUS any more for many reasons, among them being uniformed and stupidiness. He changes his mind faster than you have to go to the toilet.

 

The money doesn't like political unsteadiness and loss of trust. as well as protectionism. Consequences, it flies to „safer“ harbours, i.e. Thailand with the prospect of better returns. At the same time it seems not so important that the Thai economy isn't in the best condition.

[peterb17]

Gosh it's easy to understand: the UK is struggling under vast amounts of Governmental and personal debt- half the population lives in total poverty - they have to go  to food banks ( free food) . No infrastructure or a decent police / military. 

The country is run by the very very rich - whose wealth has steadily increased.

Education is amongst one of the worst in the world.

 

Thailand on the other hand has the greatest incoming foreign investment, a well educated population- high social mobility , low debts and a pick up in every garage. 

Ever increasing tourist numbers. A total utopia 

 

Whats not to understand ? 

[gamini]

24 minutes ago, peterb17 said:

Gosh it's easy to understand: the UK is struggling under vast amounts of Governmental and personal debt- half the population lives in total poverty - they have to go  to food banks ( free food) . No infrastructure or a decent police / military. 

The country is run by the very very rich - whose wealth has steadily increased.

Education is amongst one of the worst in the world.

 

Thailand on the other hand has the greatest incoming foreign investment, a well educated population- high social mobility , low debts and a pick up in every garage. 

Ever increasing tourist numbers. A total utopia 

 

Whats not to understand ? 

The Thai economy is doing far better than the UK so naturally the thai baht is rising agaist the poundIt is as simple as that

[gamini]

I think the best we can hope for is about BT 39 to the baht. But there are many who believe it will be much lower. The UK has a lot of problems. The BA Debacle, political infighting, and the brexit disaster etc.

[samsensam]

4 minutes ago, gamini said:

The Thai economy is doing far better than the UK so naturally the thai baht is rising agaist the poundIt is as simple as that

 

erm, no it's not that simple (as i learned studying economics at school aged 15). exchange rates can, and are, effected by:

 

- differentials in inflation

- differentials in interest rates

- public debt

- terms of trade

- political stability

- economic performance

 

 

[GreasyFingers]

5 minutes ago, samsensam said:

 

erm, no it's not that simple (as i learned studying economics at school aged 15). exchange rates can, and are, effected by:

 

- differentials in inflation

- differentials in interest rates

- public debt

- terms of trade

- political stability

- economic performance

 

 

But since you were at school exchange rates have become part of the casino (BP & Soros)

[English Engineer]

You can add in speculation. There is good money to be made in currency trading. I know people who make good money just by buying and selling currency at the right time. The speculation adds to the instability. 

[abrahamzvi]

On 5/27/2017 at 8:50 PM, vogie said:

You are spot on Clive, if Labour get in I estimate 1baht to 1 pound.

The mad communist Corbyn 

 

On 5/27/2017 at 8:50 PM, vogie said:

You are spot on Clive, if Labour get in I estimate 1baht to 1 pound.

The mad communist Corbyn will never win the elections. Labour will be Lucky if it gets 100 seats in Westminster.

 

As far as the value of the Pound is concerned, the markets are worried about a hard Brexit and are selling Sterling. In addition the Thai Baht has recently gained in value against the $, € and other currencies.

 

As far as the future is concerned I personally am quite pessimistic regarding the Pound, but I may be wrong, hopefully....

[KarenBravo]

The way I read it, it's because the latest poll showed that Labour had gone from twenty points behind, to only five points behind.

[vogie]

5 minutes ago, abrahamzvi said:

The mad communist Corbyn 

 

The mad communist Corbyn will never win the elections. Labour will be Lucky if it gets 100 seats in Westminster.

 

As far as the value of the Pound is concerned, the markets are worried about a hard Brexit and are selling Sterling. In addition the Thai Baht has recently gained in value against the $, € and other currencies.

 

As far as the future is concerned I personally am quite pessimistic regarding the Pound, but I may be wrong, hopefully....

If Corbyn gets in the pound will tumble, when the torys gets in it will go up in value. 

 

The world has more confidence in the torys, that's how it is and that's how it always has been.

 

If Corbyns Labour gets in (Diane Abbott as Home Secretary?) I will poke my eyes out with a red hot needle!

[Peterw42]

25 minutes ago, samsensam said:

 

erm, no it's not that simple (as i learned studying economics at school aged 15). exchange rates can, and are, effected by:

 

- differentials in inflation

- differentials in interest rates

- public debt

- terms of trade

- political stability

- economic performance

 

 

Or plain old propping up of the currency, Australian dollar is way down as well.

I am cynical enough to think a big import or export is happening this month.

[Laza 45]

On 5/27/2017 at 10:16 PM, trd said:

Currencies are in pairs. The pound is rising against the US dollar, but the baht is rising against the pound and other currencies. It is baht strength not pound weakness over the last few days.

True.. my Aussie $ has taken a nose dive too..  question... why is the Bt so strong?? 

[NoBrainer]

It just means that the people who play the currency markets on a large scale, think that the US & UK are printing money faster than Thailand.

 

And they are usually correct.

[trd]

Gosh it's easy to understand: the UK is struggling under vast amounts of Governmental and personal debt- half the population lives in total poverty - they have to go  to food banks ( free food) . No infrastructure or a decent police / military. 
The country is run by the very very rich - whose wealth has steadily increased.
Education is amongst one of the worst in the world.
 
Thailand on the other hand has the greatest incoming foreign investment, a well educated population- high social mobility , low debts and a pick up in every garage. 
Ever increasing tourist numbers. A total utopia 
 
Whats not to understand ? 

Well this. Poor standard of education, record high levels of household debt, an underperforming economy with increased uncertainty under a military government, extreme poverty at one end of the scale where there isn't a pickup in every garage and a reliance on tourist numbers which account for only 8% of the economy. Incoming foreign investment will quickly change to net foreign outflows when interest rates on the dollar rise at some stage making it the safe haven currency for investors. Not a utopia.

[louse1953]

1 hour ago, vogie said:

If Corbyn gets in the pound will tumble, when the torys gets in it will go up in value. 

 

The world has more confidence in the torys, that's how it is and that's how it always has been.

 

If Corbyns Labour gets in (Diane Abbott as Home Secretary?) I will poke my eyes out with a red hot needle!

The bankers have more confidence in the Torys because they play the game.If you Poms want a country that looks after the people instead of screwing,vote Labor

[louse1953]

21 minutes ago, Laza 45 said:

True.. my Aussie $ has taken a nose dive too..  question... why is the Bt so strong?? 

Because they export heaps same as China.

[hugh2121]

4 hours ago, gamini said:

The Thai economy is doing far better than the UK so naturally the thai baht is rising agaist the poundIt is as simple as that

So why is it also rising against US$? Will soon be below 34 at this rate.

 

[hugh2121]

2 hours ago, louse1953 said:

The bankers have more confidence in the Torys because they play the game.If you Poms want a country that looks after the people instead of screwing,vote Labor

The UK has no "Labor" party.

Edited May 29, 2017 by hugh2121

[StevieAus]

4 hours ago, trd said:

Well this. Poor standard of education, record high levels of household debt, an underperforming economy with increased uncertainty under a military government, extreme poverty at one end of the scale where there isn't a pickup in every garage and a reliance on tourist numbers which account for only 8% of the economy. Incoming foreign investment will quickly change to net foreign outflows when interest rates on the dollar rise at some stage making it the safe haven currency for investors. Not a utopia.

Spot on the last I read was that new foreign investment was zero

As far as education is concerned of course no one fails in Thailand but the level of English proficiency is abysmal have a look at the other ASEAN countries even Myanmar ( Burma) has a higher standard

[George Feedback]

8 hours ago, gamini said:

I think the best we can hope for is about BT 39 to the baht. But there are many who believe it will be much lower. The UK has a lot of problems. The BA Debacle, political infighting, and the brexit disaster etc.

The strength of the baht is the strange part of the equation. It has been overvalued for years, everyone knows it but it continues despite military governments and corruption in every institution.

Fact is the pound did drop after the referendum in 2016 but stabilised quickly after the doom and gloom predictions of the Remoners didn't happen.  It is now subject to speculation due to the general election next month of course. If Jezza and Diane get in with the help of the SNP  on the back of a borrow and spend manifesto we Brits are all doomed wherever you live.

[Laza 45]

6 hours ago, hugh2121 said:

So why is it also rising against US$? Will soon be below 34 at this rate.

 

As Louse1953 says.. Thailand is exporting lots of stuff and the economy is strong..  relatively... the Aussie $ is falling as well.. OZ exports 'lots of stuff' too.. but not manufactured 'stuff'...''' raw materials... which takes a hit when it looks like China is slowing down and there is some nervousness out there about China's massive debt and ability to sustain high growth.. America?..  I think the markets are getting nervous about Trump's ability to deliver on his promises... reality is settling in..  he can't deliver the jobs he promised.. he can't deliver the promised infrastructure spending   and his administration is in chaos.. his deregulation favoring big oil and coal caused some excitement for the big players but in the long game a shift to an economy based on renewable and clean energy  is the only sustainable way to go.. & Trump's isolationist policies are already hurting the US economy...

[abrahamzvi]

14 hours ago, Peterw42 said:

Or plain old propping up of the currency, Australian dollar is way down as well.

I am cynical enough to think a big import or export is happening this month.

What you are saying is all correct. However, the exchange rates are greatly influenced by the factor psychology, which at times overshadows all,other material factors.

[simoh1490]

7 hours ago, George Feedback said:

The strength of the baht is the strange part of the equation. It has been overvalued for years, everyone knows it but it continues despite military governments and corruption in every institution.

Fact is the pound did drop after the referendum in 2016 but stabilised quickly after the doom and gloom predictions of the Remoners didn't happen.  It is now subject to speculation due to the general election next month of course. If Jezza and Diane get in with the help of the SNP  on the back of a borrow and spend manifesto we Brits are all doomed wherever you live.

On the contrary, the easiest part to understand is the strength of THB which is backed by solid fundamentals, low governement debt and hi levels of foreign currency reserves.

 

As for GBP: it remains at the bottom of the stack of valuable currencies and has the potential to go much lower if the election and Brexit don't go as hoped - and that's not remoaning/brexiteering, that's fact. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-11/the-three-worst-currencies-of-2017-show-that-politics-not-economics-are-driving-markets

[simoh1490]

9 hours ago, StevieAus said:

Spot on the last I read was that new foreign investment was zero

As far as education is concerned of course no one fails in Thailand but the level of English proficiency is abysmal have a look at the other ASEAN countries even Myanmar ( Burma) has a higher standard

Spot not on! BOT is acting to curb capital inflows into Thailand, that move is not indicative of anything like zero!!!

 

And do tell, what does the level or quality of English proficiency have to do with the strength of the  economy or indeed anything, if you had said the quality and proficiency of the Chinese language in Thailand was substandard I might have had some sympathy for your view, but English, nah!

[hugh2121]

5 hours ago, Laza 45 said:

As Louse1953 says.. Thailand is exporting lots of stuff and the economy is strong..  relatively... the Aussie $ is falling as well.. OZ exports 'lots of stuff' too.. but not manufactured 'stuff'...''' raw materials... which takes a hit when it looks like China is slowing down and there is some nervousness out there about China's massive debt and ability to sustain high growth.. America?..  I think the markets are getting nervous about Trump's ability to deliver on his promises... reality is settling in..  he can't deliver the jobs he promised.. he can't deliver the promised infrastructure spending   and his administration is in chaos.. his deregulation favoring big oil and coal caused some excitement for the big players but in the long game a shift to an economy based on renewable and clean energy  is the only sustainable way to go.. & Trump's isolationist policies are already hurting the US economy...

Still doesn't answer the OP's question. I only tried to point out that the THB is not only rising against GBP. However, one thing you seem to have neglected is possible interference from the BOT e.g. buying THB.