What is going on with the Thai baht ?

[billd766]

5 minutes ago, EricTh said:

I am waiting for the Baht to go down in value but it seems it is going the other way for the past few months.

 

According to KBank which is the bank that my pensions are paid into the exchange rate between the THB/GBP started on 02 January at 43.5525, hit its low point on 16th January of 42.265 and it high point on 11th May of 44.53125. This morning it was 42.80625. Going back down a little.

 

That gives a difference of of about 2.66 baht for the year so far.

 

What will it do next? I have no idea, nor do I think many people including money traders and forex experts do either, though their guesses are probably not much better than mine.

 

 

[IMA_FARANG]

What currency are you referring to?

The English pound is being affected downward by BREXIT worries and now Mays governmental problems. as the Tory government flounders in it's self-generated stupidity

The U.S. dollar is suffering from Donald Trumps engrained stupidity as the U.S. President and fool in charge.

All that is a short term stuff. but internationally foreign exchange "experts" are all spineless cowards and are deliberately bidding and talking down those currencies against the Baht. 

Anyone who doesn't see the short term "bad news" is a temporary thing does not understand that in the long run both the English pound and the U.S. dollar are long term winners is a fool.

The Baht although in the long run a weaker currency is because of the above making short term gains against the Pound, the Dollar, and the Euro.

That is just a temporary fluctuation.....the basic fundamentals in the long term will bring the Pound and the Dollar back to its proper position.

Even the Euro will in the long term come back to its correct balance as the fundamentals are there for its long term..

You need to think "long term" , and look past the temporary gloom and doom of the so called "experts".

As I said above they are all cowards anyway.

That at least s my opinion.

[EricTh]

4 hours ago, IMA_FARANG said:

What currency are you referring to?

The English pound is being affected downward by BREXIT worries and now Mays governmental problems. as the Tory

 

When do you see the US dollar moving up again when compared to the Thai baht?

 

 

Edited June 22, 2017 by EricTh

[EricTh]

No wisecrack answers please.

 

We would like to hear IMA_Farang's prediction since he said it's only short-term

[t8769]

>The English pound is being affected downward by BREXIT worries and now Mays governmental problems. as the Tory government flounders in it's self-generated stupidity

 

Britain is booming, manufacturing and exports the highest for decades, unemployment is very low and youth unemployment has fallen 50%. While much of Europe is dying, in recession or on the verge of it, Britain's economy continues to grow. If this is floundering - lets have more of it.

https://order-order.com/2017/06/22/british-manufacturers-order-books-29-year-high/#disqus_thread

 

 

> The U.S. dollar is suffering from Donald Trumps engrained stupidity as the U.S. President and fool in charge.

Since the Clown/Hitler/Devil/Monster from the black lagoon Trump took over from the boy wonder, the American economy has continued to show strong growth, with unemployment at a 10 year low, and business confidence high. 

 

 

 

 

[Naam]

53 minutes ago, t8769 said:

Britain is booming, manufacturing and exports the highest for decades, unemployment is very low and youth unemployment has fallen 50%. While much of Europe is dying, in recession or on the verge of it

[t8769]

It is good to see that a CBI report indicating UK export orders at a 22 year high cause you enjoyment. 

 

I hope the lowest unemployment figures since 1979 also cause merriment.

 

It is good to see positive news being celebrated.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[fredbear10]

On 07/06/2017 at 2:33 PM, malt25 said:

Definitely the egg.

Just saying.

No egg, No chicken / No chicken, No egg. Damn this is confusing. 

I got it. Chicken is a figment of our imagination. Mmmmm, I think :)

[malt25]

10 hours ago, fredbear10 said:

Just saying.

No egg, No chicken / No chicken, No egg. Damn this is confusing. 

I got it. Chicken is a figment of our imagination. Mmmmm, I think :)

My understanding is that birds, chickens, evolved from reptiles. Reptiles lay eggs. So, egg first. Not really rocket surgery.

[lannarebirth]

Pretty important support here for the USD:THB. 200 week ma at 33.91. Not much of a bounce from this level for several weeks now, which would have been expected given the sharp slope of the ascending 200 wma. If this week and next close below the the 200 wma I would expect a pretty quick move down to 33.50ish with 33.00 soon to follow.

[lannarebirth]

So, 33.52 today's low. Probably going to bounce around here a bit. My view is that its on its way to 33.00.

[EricTh]

2 hours ago, lannarebirth said:

So, 33.52 today's low. Probably going to bounce around here a bit. My view is that its on its way to 33.00.

 

Why is the US dollar dropping so much so quickly? 

 

[Berkshire]

1 hour ago, EricTh said:

 

Why is the US dollar dropping so much so quickly? 

 

Here is one answer....

 

[The U.S. dollar slumped against major currencies on Tuesday after Republicans abandoned their latest plan to repeal Obamacare.]

[The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, dropped to its lowest level since September 2016 after it became clear that Republican leaders in the Senate did not have the votes to even begin debate on the legislation.]

[The collapse raises questions about the rest of President Trump's economic agenda.]

 

http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/18/investing/us-dollar-health-care/index.html

[EricTh]

Just now, Berkshire said:

Here is one answer....

 

[The U.S. dollar slumped against major currencies on Tuesday after Republicans abandoned their latest plan to repeal Obamacare.]

[The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, dropped to its lowest level since September 2016 after it became clear that Republican leaders in the Senate did not have the votes to even begin debate on the legislation.]

[The collapse raises questions about the rest of President Trump's economic agenda.]

 

http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/18/investing/us-dollar-health-care/index.html

 

Does it mean that the US dollar is going to slide further for the next few years because Trump will be president for another 4 years.

[Berkshire]

4 minutes ago, EricTh said:

 

Does it mean that the US dollar is going to slide further for the next few years because Trump will be president for another 4 years.

Well, it doesn't work that way.  There are short term catalyst and long term fundamentals.  The US economy is strong, relative to the EU, Japan, etc.  And if the Feds keep raising interest rates, that would help the dollar.  The USD may take a hit in the short term because of political uncertainty, but middle and longer term should be ok.  Of course, free financial advice is worth exactly what you paid for it...

[EricTh]

37 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

Well, it doesn't work that way.  There are short term catalyst and long term fundamentals.  The US economy is strong, relative to the EU, Japan, etc.  And if the Feds keep raising interest rates, that would help the dollar.  The USD may take a hit in the short term because of political uncertainty, but middle and longer term should be ok.  Of course, free financial advice is worth exactly what you paid for it...

If the US economy is strong, then it is mostly due to speculative activities of fund managers.

 

When they repatriate funds back to US in the future, the dollar would rise again.

 

[Thai Ron]

Depends on one's definition of "strong".

The Fed is trying to raise interest rates but no one can fathom why since the US economy only grew at 1.9% last year and can hardly be described as "overheating'.

IMO, the Fed is trying to build up some ammunition to combat the next downturn/recession.

The penny will drop this year or early next

 

 

[lannarebirth]

7 hours ago, EricTh said:

 

Why is the US dollar dropping so much so quickly? 

 

I don't know. I like to focus on the what rather than the why.

[EricTh]

1 hour ago, Thai Ron said:

Depends on one's definition of "strong".

The Fed is trying to raise interest rates but no one can fathom why since the US economy only grew at 1.9% last year and can hardly be described as "overheating'.

 

 

If you print money too long and interest rate kept artificially low, the bubble will burst one day.

 

[lannarebirth]

On 7/13/2017 at 10:49 PM, lannarebirth said:

Pretty important support here for the USD:THB. 200 week ma at 33.91. Not much of a bounce from this level for several weeks now, which would have been expected given the sharp slope of the ascending 200 wma. If this week and next close below the the 200 wma I would expect a pretty quick move down to 33.50ish with 33.00 soon to follow.

 

Should bounce pretty hard from the 33.00 ish area. If it doesn't then look out below, but I'm not expecting that.

[Dene16]

On 22/06/2017 at 9:50 AM, IMA_FARANG said:

You need to think "long term" , and look past the temporary gloom and doom of the so called "experts".

The 'long term' may be too long for some people on here!

[dfdgfdfdgs]

9 minutes ago, Dene16 said:

The 'long term' may be too long for some people on here!

 

I once made quite an offensive old people joke on Thaivisa and I was surprised at the lack of reaction.  Then 6 days later when I thought I was safe, I noticed what can only be described as a 'herd' of zimmerframes slowly advancing down Soi Onnut towards my building.

Edited July 27, 2017 by dfdgfdfdgs

[EricTh]

2 hours ago, Dene16 said:

The 'long term' may be too long for some people on here!

 

It is too long. What is happening to US dollar?

 

I think it might be the Democrats manipulating the currency to make Trump look bad.

 

 

[Thai Ron]

The thing I'd be more concerned about is the fact that the dollar is weakening even though the Fed is raising rates and promising to unwind $4 trillion balance sheet.

Obviously, the market knows the Fed is bullshitting and they know Trump won't get anything done on tax or on stimulus.

 

I'm just surprised it took them this long to realise.

This dollar swoon could have a lot further to run

[Kwasaki]

8 minutes ago, EricTh said:

It is too long. What is happening to US dollar?

 

I think it might be the Democrats manipulating the currency to make Trump look bad.

Nah !!  keep up to speed will ya,  manipulating the currency is done by the Russians.  

[spidermike007]

The Thai baht has been getting stronger and stronger against the US Dollar. Is this the Trump effect? They keep jabbering about how strong the US economy is, but I just do not see it. Real Estate and restaurants seem to be doing well, as well as the stock market. But, is that an indicator of overall strength in the economy? Retail is down, and consumer confidence seems to be way down, with the deflector in chief giving mixed signals daily. Historically, when real estate was high, as well as the stock market, people were out spending. Not the case right now, at least in the US. 

 

In general the dollar seems to be weakening worldwide. But, the baht seems to be outpacing most regional currencies. What is causing this? Anybody out there with knowledge of the situation?

Edited August 12, 2017 by spidermike007

[Negita43]

You really must ask yourself. Is it better to keep your money in Thai Baht (and hence Thai banks) or some other currency with banks that understand customer service and international banking?

[Negita43]

On 7/27/2017 at 6:17 AM, Dene16 said:

The 'long term' may be too long for some people on here!

"In the long term we are all dead" John Maynard Keynes - if you don't know who he is look him up.

[tonray]

20 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

The Thai baht has been getting stronger and stronger against the US Dollar. Is this the Trump effect? They keep jabbering about how strong the US economy is, but I just do not see it. Real Estate and restaurants seem to be doing well, as well as the stock market. But, is that an indicator of overall strength in the economy? Retail is down, and consumer confidence seems to be way down, with the deflector in chief giving mixed signals daily. Historically, when real estate was high, as well as the stock market, people were out spending. Not the case right now, at least in the US. 

 

In general the dollar seems to be weakening worldwide. But, the baht seems to be outpacing most regional currencies. What is causing this? Anybody out there with knowledge of the situation?

People in the US are still spending but there is a paradigm shift happening and they are not buying at "brick and mortar" stores. The physical stores in the retail space were way,  way overbuilt from the late 90's until no and this is a major acknowledgement of overcapacity

 

I think the dollar has been weak short term because of fear of Trump's ability to stay focused but the real reason is that inflation, despite a decade of efforts by the Federal Reserve, has not been increasing,worrying people about price deceleration in the economy.

[meatboy]

its not only the dollar but the gbpound has lost 130satang since the 2nd.of august.