What is going to happen to the Pound?

[bert bloggs]

Thats it boys , how bad is it going to get , or with a softer Brexit that may (no pun intended) come about ,will the pound go up a little? 

[tonray]

Go up against what ? Currency valuations only have meaning in the context of a currency pair. I would assume you mean against the Thai baht ? 

 

Whether it goes up or down depends on a number of factors, all tied in with the expectations or prospects for future growth and stability. My guess is not much will happen until after formal plans are announced regarding BREXIT and the timing of events.

[Kwasaki]

The way l see it is how strong can the £ get to be with the $ before any rises.

[impulse]

I can see it going from 16 to 13 or 14 ounces.

 

Sorry, couldn't resist.

 

[steven100]

Just read an article where they predict 35 - 37 is the area expected ....

[mfd101]

Noone can tell exactly - all currencies rise and fall on a daily basis as various relevant & irrelevant bits of news break and as profiteers move in and out of the market.

 

So it's the longterm trend (if any) that counts. And, at this stage, that looks entirely grim for the pound.

 

How could it not be? The UK economy is already looking a bit sick, moving - as reported over the last few days - from highish (by European standards) growth to bottom of the European barrel over the last quarter. A weak government and the inability of the UK to get its act together on negotiations and sufficient experienced negotiators as it undoes the last 50 years of literally thousands of international agreements & then tries to redo them individually with 150 or so other countries ... the British self-inflicted nightmare is only just beginning and it will get worse and worse for at least the next 10 years. After that, noone knows.

Edited June 11, 2017 by mfd101
grammar

[CaptHaddock]

Exchange rates depend mostly on cross-border trade.  The UK's trade level can hardly be expected to increase from exiting the EU.  It will certainly go down.  The only question is by how much.  The Brexiteers have cut their own throat.

[elliss]

4 hours ago, steven100 said:

Just read an article where they predict 35 - 37 is the area expected ....

         Yep ,  thats about it  i will settle for 36 ,   and soon to be my  waist size .

             Tight  times  ahead lads ,   Transfer  now .

Edited June 11, 2017 by elliss

[evadgib]

This whole sorry mess reminds me of Al Pachino being clawed back into the mafia just when he thought he was out.

 

We are leaving the EU and will be better off in the long run regardless of what might be ahead in the short term.

[mfd101]

1 hour ago, evadgib said:

We are leaving the EU and will be better off in the long run regardless of what might be ahead in the short term.

Your certainty rivals that of Tiresias May.

[KelSolaar]

I think, yes, it will go up a bit (against Euro, Dollar and Baht) but only slightly.

[swissie]

In my view, basically all the possible negative-effects may well be incorporated in current exchange rates already. What could come next? The UK sinking to the bottom of the ocean?

Have been trading currencies for all of my adult live. Mid-Term, I rather see a buying opportunity as far as the £ is concerned.
"The night is always darkest, shortly before sunrise".
Cheers. 

[CaptHaddock]

6 hours ago, swissie said:

In my view, basically all the possible negative-effects may well be incorporated in current exchange rates already. What could come next? The UK sinking to the bottom of the ocean?

Have been trading currencies for all of my adult live. Mid-Term, I rather see a buying opportunity as far as the £ is concerned.
"The night is always darkest, shortly before sunrise".
Cheers. 

That's possible of course, but it could also be the case that the market has underestimated the effects of leaving the EU, the UK's largest trading partner, since there are no precedents.

 

[mfd101]

8 hours ago, KelSolaar said:

I think, yes, it will go up a bit (against Euro, Dollar and Baht) but only slightly.

Alternatively, it will go down a bit, but only quite a lot. And over an indefinite timescale.

[evadgib]

Perhaps not:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40212594

Edited June 12, 2017 by evadgib

[Ricardo]

The 1.7% drop, immediately after the exit-poll suggesting a hung-parliament, says IMO that a firm win for the Cons had been priced-in.

 

I'd now expect continuing-volatility for the next year or two, as Brexit-negotiations proceed, so a few ups-and-down against the THB  might be expected ?

 

And higher prices for raw-materials will continue to weigh upon UK manufacturing-costs & high-street inflation, leading eventually to a slow rise in BoE interest-rates, which may help the Pound a little ?

 

I really don't have much of a view on the THB forward, and will continue to bring-in our living-expenses as/when needed.

 

As always the rate will definitely move against you, just after you've sent the transfer-instruction, so you'll just have to continue to grin and bear it !

Edited June 12, 2017 by Ricardo

[elliss]

On 6/11/2017 at 11:48 AM, steven100 said:

Just read an article where they predict 35 - 37 is the area expected ....

 

            May  be a farce , very unpredictable .

Edited June 13, 2017 by elliss

[bbi1]

The Pound is going to take a massive pounding

[elliss]

On 6/13/2017 at 7:50 PM, bbi1 said:

The Pound is going to take a massive pounding

        Rightly  so .  UK is well and truely ,    Fkd ,    IMO ,  a well deserved  fate . RIP

[observer90210]

On 11.06.2017 at 7:36 AM, mfd101 said:

Noone can tell exactly - all currencies rise and fall on a daily basis as various relevant & irrelevant bits of news break and as profiteers move in and out of the market.

 

So it's the longterm trend (if any) that counts. And, at this stage, that looks entirely grim for the pound.

 

How could it not be? The UK economy is already looking a bit sick, moving - as reported over the last few days - from highish (by European standards) growth to bottom of the European barrel over the last quarter. A weak government and the inability of the UK to get its act together on negotiations and sufficient experienced negotiators as it undoes the last 50 years of literally thousands of international agreements & then tries to redo them individually with 150 or so other countries ... the British self-inflicted nightmare is only just beginning and it will get worse and worse for at least the next 10 years. After that, noone knows.

but aren't the big buck businesses who export,  popping out champagne as they exports should explode due to the cheapness of the £ ?????

[salavan]

"What will happen to the pound"

It's going to disappear up its own arse that's what,  congratulations brexit voters

[bert bloggs]

16 minutes ago, salavan said:

"What will happen to the pound"

It's going to disappear up its own arse that's what,  congratulations brexit voters

Brexit brexit ,yea yea yea , free from the shackles of the gravy train brigade in Brussels. 

[Kwasaki]

10 hours ago, elliss said:

        Rightly  so .  UK is well and truely ,    Fkd ,    IMO ,  a well deserved  fate . RIP

Cambodia.

[mfd101]

16 hours ago, observer90210 said:

but aren't the big buck businesses who export,  popping out champagne as they exports should explode due to the cheapness of the £ ?????

And what exports would that be?

[elliss]

12 hours ago, bert bloggs said:

Brexit brexit ,yea yea yea , free from the shackles of the gravy train brigade in Brussels. 

       Brexit really ? ,will not happen .Plan B , is on the table ,  another  U turn ,  May be .       GBP  ,   is  holding steady , we can live in hope lads . 

Edited June 16, 2017 by elliss

[tonray]

5 hours ago, mfd101 said:

And what exports would that be?

The ones taking up all the bar stools on Phuket

[chickenslegs]

6 hours ago, mfd101 said:

And what exports would that be?

 

1. Machinery including computers: US$60.3 billion (14.7% of total exports)
2. Vehicles : $51.7 billion (12.6%)
3. Pharmaceuticals: $32.6 billion (8%)
4. Gems, precious metals: $27.5 billion (6.7%)
5. Electrical machinery, equipment: $27.1 billion (6.6%)
6. Mineral fuels including oil: $26.2 billion (6.4%)
7. Aircraft, spacecraft: $20.7 billion (5.1%)
8. Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $17.2 billion (4.2%)
9. Plastics, plastic articles: $11.2 billion (2.7%)
10. Organic chemicals: $10.8 billion (2.6%)

Vehicles were the fastest-growing among the top 10 export categories, up 80.8% for the 7-year period starting in 2009.

In second place for improving export sales was the aerospace category which gained 72.7% led by significant international sales for airplanes and turbojets.

UK exported gems and precious metals posted the third-fastest gain in value up 64.4% thanks to booming gold and platinum shipments.

 

http://www.worldstopexports.com/united-kingdoms-top-exports/

[observer90210]

7 hours ago, mfd101 said:

And what exports would that be?

redbull?

[observer90210]

7 hours ago, mfd101 said:

And what exports would that be?

more seriously..

 

1. Machinery including computers: US$37.2 billion (17.4% of total exports)
2. Electrical machinery, equipment: $29.7 billion (13.9%)
3. Vehicles : $27.2 billion (12.7%)
4. Gems, precious metals: $14.2 billion (6.6%)
5. Rubber, rubber articles: $12.2 billion (5.7%)
6. Plastics, plastic articles: $11.4 billion (5.3%)
7. Mineral fuels including oil: $6.3 billion (2.9%)
8. Meat/seafood preparations: $5.9 billion (2.8%)
9. Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $5.3 billion (2.5%)
10. Cereals: $4.6 billion (2.1%)

 

(ref: www.worldexports.com)

 

have a nice evening.

Edited June 16, 2017 by observer90210

[bert bloggs]

11 hours ago, elliss said:

       Brexit really ? ,will not happen .Plan B , is on the table ,  another  U turn ,  May be .       GBP  ,   is  holding steady , we can live in hope lads . 

Enjoy your dream ,because when you wake up Brexit will still be going ahead .