Ten-year retirement visa doesn’t stand up to scrutiny

[Thaidream]

If I remember correctly the elite Visa has approximately 4300 people with one. i remember when it first came out- no one purchased it as the requirement were too high- they then went back and did some work and made it more attractive cost wise and benefit wise.

 

The requirement of the 5/10 year Visa are ridiculously high and I doubt there will be few takers. They will have to redo the requirements- lessen the cost and add more incentives. The insurance requirement levels are absurd. Thailand needs to allow long stayers access to their social security fund which will make the fund more viable by adding thousands more into the system.

[robsamui]

49 minutes ago, klauskunkel said:

tomorrows combined MOFA/TAT article:

New 10 Year Retirement Visa Instant Success

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has declared that the new visa is a hit with expats and retirees from other countries alike. "People are asking about it on Facebook and Line-App. We don't have enough staff to answer. It's like a flood of old people set loose!"

This is the quote from TAT: "The numbers are up."

 

It's Sombat's boss again. He gets in everywhere.

[Khon Kaen Dave]

I am sure that somewhere in the dark and dusty halls of government, a long way down the hall. Away from the sunlight and the rest of the world, that there is a door with the sign, "Department of ridiculous ideas"

[Jingthing]

I am sure that somewhere in the dark and dusty halls of government, a long way down the hall. Away from the sunlight and the rest of the world, that there is a door with the sign, "Department of ridiculous ideas"

I'm quite surprised this one actually came to exist.

[YetAnother]

not said directly but the thought process employed by the thai policy makers indicates largely the equivalent of a western 10 year old; i and many long termers here look to vietnam; we resent thai attitudes toward non-thais; the racism; frankly the people thailand really needs are the people who want and will get out

[George FmplesdaCosteedback]

11 hours ago, Lemonltr said:

I wonder why I keep getting an uneasy feeling that these new visas are in preparation for the drastic alteration in the terms of the existing 'extension of stay'at 800.000 baht in bank or 65.000 monthly income.

I fully expect these requirements to be heightened substantially to lower the numbers of expats on 'moderate incomes staying here. I hope I am misguided in my suspicion.

You might be right, I too suspect the stupid proposals they keep coming out with are to test the water for a new compulsory system.

All we can do is keep complaining until the idiots get a reasonable compromise worth looking at.

 

[George FmplesdaCosteedback]

1 hour ago, YetAnother said:

not said directly but the thought process employed by the thai policy makers indicates largely the equivalent of a western 10 year old; i and many long termers here look to vietnam; we resent thai attitudes toward non-thais; the racism; frankly the people thailand really needs are the people who want and will get out

You mean like the Europeans did to north and south America?

Err, I'll just go to Vietnam thanks.

[Stargeezr]

Maybe some year the Thai Government will actually modernize and come up

with a fair visa system. They certainly did not do it with this try. What an absolute farce.

  I do hope that one day there will be a better visa system in my life time, but I sure will

not be holding my breath for that to happen.

Geezer

[mrfaroukh]

I feel the best is if they let people to get their own health insurance from anywhere they like as long as they are insured. Make it 3 million in bank or certain amount of income like a million baht a year or so. The police report will also be difficult as many people have already lived in Thailand for many years and that make it difficult to go back to their home country for the police report. If they want foreigners to feel comfortable and get 10 years visa they should give them some bonus like being able to buy house, Thai ID card etc so the foreigners feel at home and safe.

[George FmplesdaCosteedback]

46 minutes ago, mrfaroukh said:

I feel the best is if they let people to get their own health insurance from anywhere they like as long as they are insured. Make it 3 million in bank or certain amount of income like a million baht a year or so. The police report will also be difficult as many people have already lived in Thailand for many years and that make it difficult to go back to their home country for the police report. If they want foreigners to feel comfortable and get 10 years visa they should give them some bonus like being able to buy house, Thai ID card etc so the foreigners feel at home and safe.

Not going to happen any time soon. Not everyone has a pension of around US$30k a year, but might have investments and property worth quite a few 10s of million baht.

Nothing is ever thought through here. No logic, no common sense, short sighted and greedy from bottom to top. It is just about money.

Funny that Thai investors look outside Thailand, but expect foreign investment to keep flooding in with no guarantees.

Amazing!

[JackThompson]

19 hours ago, Sheryl said:

The health insurance requirement, specifying it must be insurance from a Thai company, is indeed almost impossible to comply with and in itself will guarantee very few people avail of this visa.

Given recent experiences and 'crackdowns' on every type of visa (to varying extents), I would say their response would be, "Good, less farangs here.  Mission accomplished."  My view is that there are elements in the hierarchy who do not want us here, no matter how many Thai citizens suffer the economic-consequences of our absence.

 

18 hours ago, thaitero said:

I think this quite possible what is going to happen. So everyone with current retirement system should keep their retirement extensions alive and if possible not to use Home country O-A visas because there might be case of old rules grandfathered and that only applies to extensions not visas.

We can hope that they will apply grandfathering, as they did when they raised the financial-threshold the last time.

 

17 hours ago, robsamui said:

Boss: Hey Sombat come help me make up new ideas to get more aliens to land on planet Thailand.

That wasn't the question.  It was, "Help me figure out how to drive out every Farang who isn't hi-so?  It will make Vietnam and Cambodia rich with all those Western middle-class folks (old and young), but many Thai small-businesses who depend on the long-stay Farang will go OUT of business, driving them back to subsistence-farming, where they belong. 

 

"While we are at it, how can we make it easier to bring in Cambodians and Burmese as indentured-servants, so Thais cannot work in manufacturing, construction, etc?  Those opportunities, at Thai salaries, would allow access to an economic ladder - and we can't have that.  Let's make sure poorer foreigners are exempt from the visa-rules applied to the Farangs, so they have easy-access."

--------------

Note: I think it is awesome that so many Thais have family with farms where they can go in  an economic-downturn.  Unlike Americans, many Thais don't have a gun with "homeless" bullets pointed at their head for-life.  It is the "micro" aspect of self-sustainability - a reflection of the "macro" version which is that the nation can feed itself, so cannot be starved into submission by international-forces (see: every nation receiving international "food aid," for the converse).  But there is a huge difference between that as an option, vs "no other choice."

[wgdanson]

21 hours ago, WhizBang said:

Actually I think it is 2M baht, unless it has changed.  Basically it is 100,000 baht/year.

 

Yes, very easy to get.  No bank deposit requirements, no medical insurance requirement and no police report.  You get a 1 year stamp on arrival and still have to do the 90 day reports, BUT, if live live near a Thailand Elite office, you can drop your passport off with them and they will take care of it for you.

 

As an added bonus you get a free limo ride to and from the airport and are walked through flight checkin, immigration and baggage claim, for outgoing and incoming international flights, but not domestic.

 

Forgot.  You also get an ID card, sort of.  It has your name and photo on it, plus the expiration date, and of course, Thailand Elite on it.   I have used it in a pinch when asked for ID

You are not allowed to 'drop your passport off' with anyone. You MUST have it on your person all the time....officially.

[Xaos]

Comedians they are

Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk

[YetAnother]

On 6/20/2017 at 9:32 AM, webfact said:

The latter is difficult to obtain in some countries and virtually impossible if you happen to be American. 

i tried in the usa and was laughed out of the large police office/station

[JayBird]

I'll just come in here about health insurance.

 

The requirement says a minimum of coverage. You can get in patient coverage of 10m to 30m from a few companies here (LMG MSH BUPA).

 

of course this does not play nice for those with coverage from home or those who Can not switch.

 

 

I'm unsure if Thai companies cover preexisting, so it most likely will be a major factor for retirees who often have a preexisting condition of sorts.

[YetAnother]

The problem is not the impracticality of this offering

It is the thinking of the people behind it

[JayBird]

Some simple maths:

 

3,000,000 invested in a Thai Fixed Deposit Account for 20 years would yield about 3% return. 
This would result in a return of 4.8M THB after the 20 years.
Not adjusting for inflation, and not re-investing the payments.

 

3,000,000 invested in a very simple/safe US ETF for 20 years (let's say S&P 500) will result in a total return of about 7%.
This would result in a return of 7.2M THB after the 20 years.
Not adjusting for inflation, and not re-investing the dividends.

 

1,000,000 invested in a Thailand Elite 20 year visa would yield a 0% return.
This would result in a return of -1M THB after the 20 years.
Not adjusting for inflation.

 

Therefore, if we compare Fixed Deposit vs S&P 500 we have:
4.8M THB vs 7.2M THB.  A difference of 2.4M THB.

 

Therefore, investing in Thai Fixed Deposit Account for 20 years would result in a 'loss' of 2.4M THB when compared to investing in the S&P 500.

 

This means the true 'cost' of the 20 year retirement visa is 2.4M THB (opportunistic loss due to tied capital).

 

However, an interesting way of looking at it is thus:
Take the 3M THB that would have been invested.  Use 1M to pay for the 20 year Thailand Elite, leaving 2M.  Invest the 2M THB in the S&P 500 for 20 years and it would return 4.8M THB.

 

In both scenarios (20 year retirement vs 20 year thailand elite with 3M capital used), the return at the end of the 20 year period is the same (4.8M THB), and the length of stay is the same (20 years).  And in both scenarios, the true cost of the 20 year visa is 2.4M THB (again, opportunistic loss due to tied capital).

 

So from this point of view both solutions can be considered equal.  The main differentiator is that the Thailand Elite requires only 1M THB capital to be invested, whereas the Retirement Visa requires an upfront investment of 3M which is also bound within a Thailand based institution in a Thai based currency.

 

By purchasing only the Thailand Elite visa you can reduce investment risk by investing the 2M THB equivallent in US (or non-Thai) assets in non-Thai countries (diversification theory for risk reduction).

 

Fun Fact:
If you have 3M THB and purchase the 1M 20 Year Visa, the remaining 2M THB invested in the S&P 500 will yield a 2.5% dividend.  Over 20 years this is enough to purchase the next 20 Year Thaiand Elite, allowing you continue to do this in perpetuity (for those of us with more than 20 years left on the clock).

 

Therefore, I recommend the 20 Year Thailand Elite Visa.

 

Thank you.

[Mansell]

7 hours ago, YetAnother said:

i tried in the usa and was laughed out of the large police office/station

I needed a police report for my retirement visa. I went to my local police station in Santa Monica and they sent me to a specific police station an hour south that handled all these things. I think it took longer to ride there than it took to get my report. It just depends which part of the country you live....a lot of immigrants in SoCal.

[Mansell]

If there was somebody in government who had actually traveled to other countries and seen how it was handled, and actually talked with a farang here for suggestions to make the whole process less complicated, everybody would benefit. Issue farang with an I.d. that the police could scan to make sure it is bona fide. Notify change of address within 48 hours. Each year show immigration that you have funds or pension coming in. Job done.

[JackThompson]

2 hours ago, JayBird said:

Some simple maths:

3,000,000 invested in a Thai Fixed Deposit Account for 20 years would yield about 3% return. ...
However, an interesting way of looking at it is thus:
Take the 3M THB that would have been invested. ..

This is a very good angle for ThaiElite sales.  Savy investors can make up the difference over the new proposed retirement-scheme and the investment-scheme. 

 

The only fly in the ointment with the Elite and S&P Stock plan, is you must be "in it for the long haul."  Sometimes markets are down - not a good time to sell stock (even in a well-balanced stock-portfolio).  There are other investments that can be used to offset market ups/downs, but those generally do not offer yields as high as the stock.  If you "need your money in a hurry," it's not so great. 

 

OTOH, if someone has plenty of capital, and the amounts being considered for this plan/ analysis are only a small part of their overall capital-wealth, AND - especially if they are a savy investor who regularly gets above-average yields - it does make sense.

Edited June 21, 2017 by JackThompson

[roobaa01]

@JUST 1 VOICE

 

I have obtained a muang thai life @ health insurance when turning 58, now im 62 paying annually 42 k. having contacting muang thai today, i was advised the health insurance could legally not be cancelled by them when the health insurance contract has been running for more than 24 months.

 

wbr

roobaa01

[YetAnother]

2 hours ago, roobaa01 said:

@JUST 1 VOICE

 

I have obtained a muang thai life @ health insurance when turning 58, now im 62 paying annually 42 k. having contacting muang thai today, i was advised the health insurance could legally not be cancelled by them when the health insurance contract has been running for more than 24 months.

 

wbr

roobaa01

same company, same situation; wife is an ins agent for them; they will just raise the premiums to a point we just opt out

[YetAnother]

kudos to the person who penned the headline to the article; direct,concise,accurate

[YetAnother]

On 6/21/2017 at 5:38 PM, JayBird said:

Therefore, I recommend the 20 Year Thailand Elite Visa.

this place is too volatile ; 20 years here is a generation and a half

[wakeupplease]

Reading through your posts only confirms to me that Farangs out here are tolerated (Money deposit Wise) until maybe 60-65, then with insurance disappearing its time to leave one way or another. So a short life in the sun, is it worth it? I really hope you guys have a back up plan like I did. Hope so as I read of far to many people dying or being told to leave.

[wakeupplease]

3 hours ago, YetAnother said:

this place is too volatile ; 20 years here is a generation and a half

Thats 15 years then

[YetAnother]

1 hour ago, wakeupplease said:

Thats 15 years then

the us consulate in c mai tells me a 'generation' here . for them, is 12 years

[YetAnother]

On 6/20/2017 at 11:43 AM, Just1Voice said:

told me that we had to purchase life & hospital insurance BEFORE my 60th birthday, as we wouldn't be able to once I turned 60 in the following year.

my thai wife,ins agent, told me the same thing

[gk10002000]

On 6/21/2017 at 9:16 AM, JackThompson said:

This is a very good angle for ThaiElite sales.  Savy investors can make up the difference over the new proposed retirement-scheme and the investment-scheme. 

 

The only fly in the ointment with the Elite and S&P Stock plan, is you must be "in it for the long haul."  Sometimes markets are down - not a good time to sell stock (even in a well-balanced stock-portfolio).  There are other investments that can be used to offset market ups/downs, but those generally do not offer yields as high as the stock.  If you "need your money in a hurry," it's not so great. 

 

OTOH, if someone has plenty of capital, and the amounts being considered for this plan/ analysis are only a small part of their overall capital-wealth, AND - especially if they are a savy investor who regularly gets above-average yields - it does make sense.

One could invest in short or intermediate term bonds.  Price swings are irrelevent if you hold to maturity.  You collect interest and then at maturity get your principal back.  Tying up 3 million in Thailand, never.  Don't trust them.  Not to mention a USA person would now have to do FBAR, and of course the paperwork of transferring money in, and then later, transferring money out.