bushdoctor Posted July 4, 2017 Share Posted July 4, 2017 His approval ratings have gone up in his own country. I haven't researched the survey in question enough to answer you, but my opinion is that regardless of approval ratings the rest of the world respects his strength and position more than that of past presidents. I'm not sure if that question was included in this survey or not. My point was simply that I take these surveys with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chou Anou Posted July 4, 2017 Share Posted July 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jingthing Posted July 4, 2017 Share Posted July 4, 2017 (edited) 2 hours ago, bushdoctor said: His approval ratings have gone up in his own country. ... How unpopular is Donald Trump? An updating calculation of the president's approval rating, accounting for each poll's quality, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/ Edited July 4, 2017 by Jingthing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LazySlipper Posted July 5, 2017 Share Posted July 5, 2017 11 hours ago, Thakkar said: Sensible skepticism is a virtue. Believing only what you want without regard to the facts, is not. Surveys and statistics are a lynchpin of modern economies, government policies, business decisions and, at times, even personal decisions. They are not a precise science but any government, business or economist ignores them at their peril. T And that is why Trump won. Oh forgot... they predicted in the surveys that he would lose. Problem is everyone loves to quote surveys as if to show that "if the numbers show it then must be true". Too may dodgy surveys out there done by less than credible entities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilostmypassword Posted July 5, 2017 Share Posted July 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, LazySlipper said: And that is why Trump won. Oh forgot... they predicted in the surveys that he would lose. Problem is everyone loves to quote surveys as if to show that "if the numbers show it then must be true". Too may dodgy surveys out there done by less than credible entities. Actually the dodgiest of the major surveys is Rasmussen, which tends to skew Republican. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thakkar Posted July 5, 2017 Share Posted July 5, 2017 3 hours ago, LazySlipper said: And that is why Trump won. Oh forgot... they predicted in the surveys that he would lose. Problem is everyone loves to quote surveys as if to show that "if the numbers show it then must be true". Too may dodgy surveys out there done by less than credible entities. Polling is not an exact science. Polls deal in probabilities. The last pre election poll didn't say Trump would lose, only that he had a 40+% chance of winning, while HRC had a 50+% chance of winning. 40+% is not nothing, and, as it happens, he won. Trump's win was within the margin of error. He won in three states by a total of less than 80k votes. That is something like 0.057% of all votes cast in the election. He won two states by 0.7% and one by 0.2% The polls were more accurate when it came to the popular vote, because the probability of getting it right increases when dealing with larger, nationwide numbers. Ignoring the facts and going by one's guts is a successful Hollywood plot line. It occasionally works in real life too and one reads a lot about individual cases precisely because, in the larger scheme of things, these are rare cases. Most of the accurate predictions come from following the data, except when they don't—that's when they make the news. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Posted July 5, 2017 Share Posted July 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Thakkar said: Polling is not an exact science. Polls deal in probabilities. The last pre election poll didn't say Trump would lose, only that he had a 40+% chance of winning, while HRC had a 50+% chance of winning. 40+% is not nothing, and, as it happens, he won. Trump's win was within the margin of error. He won in three states by a total of less than 80k votes. That is something like 0.057% of all votes cast in the election. He won two states by 0.7% and one by 0.2% The polls were more accurate when it came to the popular vote, because the probability of getting it right increases when dealing with larger, nationwide numbers. Ignoring the facts and going by one's guts is a successful Hollywood plot line. It occasionally works in real life too and one reads a lot about individual cases precisely because, in the larger scheme of things, these are rare cases. Most of the accurate predictions come from following the data, except when they don't—that's when they make the news. T Worth pointing out that Trump's team also relied on polls when executing it's campaign strategy. Focus on messages, states and venues was not random. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple1 Posted July 5, 2017 Share Posted July 5, 2017 (edited) 41 minutes ago, Morch said: Worth pointing out that Trump's team also relied on polls when executing it's campaign strategy. Focus on messages, states and venues was not random. If I recall correctly the Trump campaign success was more based upon profiling / targeting, managed by Kushner, with tools such as Cambridge Analytica. yep, found a few articles... https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenbertoni/2016/11/22/exclusive-interview-how-jared-kushner-won-trump-the-white-house/#55491c8f3af6 http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/cambridge-analytica-the-psychographic-data-firm-behind-donald-trump-eyes-australian-move-20161212-gt926e.html As an aside some MNCs use similar database tools e.g. from my experience as a corporate IT sales person - Accor Edited July 5, 2017 by simple1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thakkar Posted July 5, 2017 Share Posted July 5, 2017 43 minutes ago, Morch said: Worth pointing out that Trump's team also relied on polls when executing it's campaign strategy. Focus on messages, states and venues was not random. Indeed. Trump himself was not at all averse to pointing to polls when they favored him. That they were only unreliable when they favored his opponents was quite the coincidence. Trump supporters might say that the fact that Trump won shows that only the polls that favored him were correct. This kind of reverse logic is why some people think they've "won" the argument. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Posted July 5, 2017 Share Posted July 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, simple1 said: If I recall correctly the Trump campaign success was more based upon profiling / targeting, managed by Kushner, with tools such as Cambridge Analytica. yep, found a few articles... https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenbertoni/2016/11/22/exclusive-interview-how-jared-kushner-won-trump-the-white-house/#55491c8f3af6 http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/cambridge-analytica-the-psychographic-data-firm-behind-donald-trump-eyes-australian-move-20161212-gt926e.html I have zero doubts HRC's campaign employed similar services. They all do. These are sometimes bundled together with polling and data analysis services. Whether or not one element was key to Trump's victory is an open question, which I doubt will be answered in a satisfying manner any time soon. Campaign secrets and inner workings get outed after some time, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boomerangutang Posted July 5, 2017 Share Posted July 5, 2017 For anyone interested in a psychiatrist's assessment of Trump, the video below articulates how Trump is an Extreme Narcissist. Most readers on this blog might say, "so what's the big deal? We've already known that for months." I'd agree, but it's interesting to hear a calm-voiced psychiatrist perfectly describe Trump...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
selftaopath Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 On 7/2/2017 at 10:27 AM, Johpa said: I think Rachael Maddow makes a great point to the brilliance of Trump's attack on Joe & Mika as we all talk about this gossip rather than the real news. Rachel Maddow is so informed. She details the various topics she has researched. I wish 45 defenders would watch her show and then claim facts are wrong. But all they typically do is listen to "opinions" and claim THEY are facts. Really faulty thinking 45 and his defenders have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
selftaopath Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 On 7/3/2017 at 10:29 AM, dexterm said: As a CNN spokesperson said "[Trump is] involved in juvenile behaviour far below the dignity of this office." http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40474118 That hit the nail on the head for me. Can he not see how his puerile histrionics are bringing his office and his country into disrepute. Putting his thin skin and super ego before the dignity of the most powerful position in the world. He loses credibility behaving this way. Who can take him seriously about anything? Honestly I believe his goal is/always will be Pro Putin/Russia and Anti democracy/America. He will earn the title "most hated" man in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
selftaopath Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 On 7/3/2017 at 1:28 PM, boomerangutang said: If anyone is wondering how anti-science Trump is, and how that attitude will harm America and its natural environment, take a look at this interview. Trumpsters will like it, because it's yet another indication of how the US will be debilitated under his rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomwct Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 7 1/2 more years of President Trump! Get use to it. After that 8 more years of President Pence! Making America Great Again one day at a time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilostmypassword Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 37 minutes ago, tomwct said: 7 1/2 more years of President Trump! Get use to it. After that 8 more years of President Pence! Making America Great Again one day at a time! All your remarks need to make them complete is an emoji for pompoms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobFord Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 7 1/2 more years of President Trump! Get use to it. After that 8 more years of President Pence! Making America Great Again one day at a time! Good Morning!Sent from my iPhone using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pegman Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 50 minutes ago, tomwct said: 7 1/2 more years of President Trump! Get use to it. After that 8 more years of President Pence! Making America Great Again one day at a time! Trump is overseas dumping on his country's spooks about WMD. I would not stand too close to this guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomwct Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Thank God for Trump! Sounded like Reagan in Poland! Obama apologized on his overseas trips, which made Socialist Europe very happy! Making America Great Again one day at a time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilostmypassword Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Just now, tomwct said: Thank God for Trump! Sounded like Reagan in Poland! Obama apologized on his overseas trips, which made Socialist Europe very happy! Making America Great Again one day at a time! Well, he certainly didn't sound like Trump. Which is almost guaranteed to be an improvement. I wonder what noises he'll be making when he has his private meeting with Putin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mesquite Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 The image of the United States is pretty good in George Clooney's English countryside. This resistance leader has moved his family back to the US after leaving due to the Trump victory. In doing so he acknowledges Trump is making America great again and that he, Clooney, was wrong to leave in the first place. http://www.lifeandstylemag.com/posts/george-clooney-twins-135725 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilostmypassword Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, mesquite said: The image of the United States is pretty good in George Clooney's English countryside. This resistance leader has moved his family back to the US after leaving due to the Trump victory. In doing so he acknowledges Trump is making America great again and that he, Clooney, was wrong to leave in the first place. http://www.lifeandstylemag.com/posts/george-clooney-twins-135725 Except of course, you're lying. Find me a reference in a real news source quoting George Clooney saying he would leave the USA if Trump won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobFord Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Well, he certainly didn't sound like Trump. Which is almost guaranteed to be an improvement. I wonder what noises he'll be making when he has his private meeting with Putin.At last we meet.Sent from my iPhone using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobFord Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 The image of the United States is pretty good in George Clooney's English countryside. This resistance leader has moved his family back to the US after leaving due to the Trump victory. In doing so he acknowledges Trump is making America great again and that he, Clooney, was wrong to leave in the first place. http://www.lifeandstylemag.com/posts/george-clooney-twins-135725More nonsense. Real estate is always a good investment. The Clooney's have 5 homes. I hope they're able to enjoy time in all of them. Sent from my iPhone using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pegman Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 2 hours ago, ilostmypassword said: Well, he certainly didn't sound like Trump. Which is almost guaranteed to be an improvement. I wonder what noises he'll be making when he has his private meeting with Putin. Being that he's Putin's poodle what do you imagine he would sound like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rancid Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 So is the dislike for Trump from his actions or lack of actions? He was elected saying he would drain the swamp, he didn't. That he would reduce wars, he didn't. That he would make America great again, that doesn't seem likely either as US greatness was based upon everybody sharing the wealth whereas, as with most countries now, its all going to the rich. He attacks the media for fake news, well nothing new about that, but why doesn't he mention his own fake campaign promises? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alocacoc Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Was a great speech in Poland. As usual, Trump is the Boss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jingthing Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 "Great" for xenophobic white nationalists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushdoctor Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 2 hours ago, Rancid said: So is the dislike for Trump from his actions or lack of actions? He was elected saying he would drain the swamp, he didn't. That he would reduce wars, he didn't. That he would make America great again, that doesn't seem likely either as US greatness was based upon everybody sharing the wealth whereas, as with most countries now, its all going to the rich. He attacks the media for fake news, well nothing new about that, but why doesn't he mention his own fake campaign promises? You're right, he hasn't made America great again, and he's already had 5 full months to do it! ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobFord Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Was a great speech in Poland. As usual, Trump is the Boss. [/url] These came to mind while watching that.Sent from my iPhone using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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