What will Kim do next? Sixth nuclear test seen critical for North Korea

[Jonathan Fairfield]

What will Kim do next? Sixth nuclear test seen critical for North Korea

By Christine Kim and David Brunnstrom

 

 

SEOUL/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - North Korea says it has developed intercontinental missiles capable of targeting any place in the United States.

 

Now comes the hard part of fulfilling the declared goal of its leader Kim Jong Un: perfecting a nuclear device small and light enough to fit on the missile without affecting its range as well as making it capable of surviving re-entry into the earth's atmosphere.

 

To do that, weapons experts say, the isolated state needs to carry out at least another nuclear test, its sixth, and more tests of long-range missiles.

 

North Korea's two tests of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) last month likely carried a payload lighter than any nuclear warhead it is currently able to produce, the experts said.

 

One way to have a lighter warhead would be to concentrate on developing a thermonuclear device, or hydrogen bomb, which would offer much greater explosive yield relative to size and weight.

 

Pyongyang claims to have tested a hydrogen bomb, but this has not been proven, said Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Program at the Federation of American Scientists.

 

"Doing so would take several more nuclear tests," he said. "The advantage of a thermonuclear warhead is that it packs a lot more power into less weight."

 

Choi Jin-wook, a professor of international relations at Japan's Ritsumeikan University and former president of South Korea's state-run Korea Institute for National Unification, said a sixth nuclear test would be essential for North Korea to develop an operational nuclear-tipped ICBM.

 

"In order to make a nuclear weapon deployable it has to be small and light, but North Korea doesn't seem to have this technology," he said.

 

South Korea's president said on Thursday Pyongyang would be "crossing a red line" if it put a nuclear warhead on an intercontinental ballistic missile, and U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that North Korea would face "fire and fury" if it threatened the United States.

 

Image: Reuters: Full interactive graphic can be found here

 

KIM MUST WEIGH RISKS

 

North Korea is a highly secretive nation and predictions of what it will do next are often little more than conjecture.

 

Still, Kim is likely to be carefully weighing the timing of even a new nuclear test because it will antagonise North Korea's sole major ally, China, and could trigger even tougher U.N. economic sanctions than those that followed ICBM tests in July.

 

A U.S. official, who asked not to be named, said that while periodic activity has been seen at North Korea's Punggye-ri nuclear test site, he had not seen movement there for over a month and there were no current signs of an imminent test.

A second U.S. official added that North Korea has had parts in place for a nuclear launch for months, but no new activity had been seen recently.

 

Besides developing a miniaturised hydrogen bomb, some experts say it appears Kim's rocket scientists have yet to master the technology to protect a warhead from the extreme heat and pressure of re-entering the earth's atmosphere after an intercontinental flight

 

South Korea believes North Korea will need at least another one or two more years to obtain that re-entry technology, Seoul's vice defence minister said on Sunday.

 

"Miniaturisation for ballistic missiles is only one of the many challenges of targeting the U.S. with an ICBM," said David Albright, a physicist and founder of the non-profit Institute for Science and International Security in Washington.

"The re-entry vehicle has to survive and the warhead work," he said. "I am sceptical that North Korea has mastered all these steps."

 

Among North Korea's capabilities in the field, U.S. intelligence officials have said it likely can produce its own missile engines and does not need to rely on imports.

 

ESSENTIAL TO SURVIVAL

 

After Kim Jong Un ramped up the pace of weapons development last year with numerous missile launches as well as two nuclear tests in January and September 2016, some observers had expected a sixth nuclear test as early as this January.

 

Instead, Pyongyang has spent most of the year testing various types of missiles. After its first and second ICBM tests in July, it threatened to land missiles in the vicinity of Guam, a U.S. Pacific territory, drawing a stern warning from Trump.

 

Pyongyang has since said Kim has delayed his decision on Guam.

 

Pyongyang faces significantly tougher sanctions, including from China, if it conducts another nuclear test, said Moon Chung-in, a special adviser on foreign affairs and national security to South Korean President Moon Jae-in.

 

"If North Korea carries out a sixth nuclear weapons test, China will likely cut oil supplies to North Korea. I believe China has strongly warned North Korea not to conduct another nuclear test," Moon said.

 

The Punggye-ri site is just 60 miles (100 km) from the border with China and 125 miles (200 km) from Russia, and past tests have angered both countries and caused them to back increasingly tough U.N. sanctions.

 

Kim Jong Un, however, sees the ability to threaten the United States as essential to the survival of his personal rule.

 

"North Korea will conduct a sixth nuclear test in order to bring the United States to negotiations," said Yoo Ho-yeol, professor of unification and diplomacy at Seoul's Korea University.

 

"I don’t know exactly when (it will happen), but a sixth nuclear test is a less dangerous option for North Korea than firing missiles towards Guam."

 

(Additional reporting by Heekyong Yang and Ju-min Park in Seoul, John Walcott and Idrees Ali in Washington, Writing by Soyoung Kim; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)

 

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2017-8-17

[craigt3365]

1 hour ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

Kim Jong Un, however, sees the ability to threaten the United States as essential to the survival of his personal rule.

Survival of his personal rule, but to the detriment of the people he rules.

[ballpoint]

I can see the children's book series already:

What Kim did.

What Kim did next.

 

It will tie in nicely with the upcoming Orange Ogre series:

What the Orange Ogre tweeted.

What the Orange Ogre tweeted next.

What the Orange Ogre tweeted next after Kim did whatever he did next.

 

Spoiler alert: It ends in a bang.

 

[dunroaming]

It's OK, Trump thinks that Kim is wise and so there is nothing to worry about. 

[hawker9000]

ANY news of continued progress with this threat and the B-1s should fly again, along with some naval activity just outside N. Korea's territorial waters (and preferably within S. Korea's territorial waters, with S. Korea's approval of course, and hopefully their participation).

 

'Don't know why the UN sanctions haven't been ratcheted up to the maximum already.  There should be a total economic boycott, freezing of assets abroad, and a blockade in place around N. Korea right now!

 

Please, no drivel about the hearts & minds of the N. Korean people.  Yes, they're starving and worsening the sanctions probably worsens their suffering.  But the hard truth is that they've been totally and hopelessly brainwashed & subjugated for decades and are a lost cause until Kim is long and truly gone.

 

[over it]

The US should characterize any launch as an attack on Guam and just get the job done already!

[Ace of Pop]

All the Yanks need to do is open a mega TOYS ARE US ,give him a Lifetime eryting free pass and crisis over.?


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[tonray]

On 8/17/2017 at 6:01 PM, craigt3365 said:

Survival of his personal rule, but to the detriment of the people he rules.

Kim or Steve Bannon ?

[baboon]

3 hours ago, over it said:

The US should characterize any launch as an attack on Guam and just get the job done already!

Just as long as you are far, far away from the hostilities, eh?

[craigt3365]

2 hours ago, tonray said:

Kim or Steve Bannon ?

And Trump and a long list of other dictators. Like Putin, etc.

[ilostmypassword]

7 hours ago, hawker9000 said:

ANY news of continued progress with this threat and the B-1s should fly again, along with some naval activity just outside N. Korea's territorial waters (and preferably within S. Korea's territorial waters, with S. Korea's approval of course, and hopefully their participation).

 

'Don't know why the UN sanctions haven't been ratcheted up to the maximum already.  There should be a total economic boycott, freezing of assets abroad, and a blockade in place around N. Korea right now!

 

Please, no drivel about the hearts & minds of the N. Korean people.  Yes, they're starving and worsening the sanctions probably worsens their suffering.  But the hard truth is that they've been totally and hopelessly brainwashed & subjugated for decades and are a lost cause until Kim is long and truly gone.

 

You believe Trump should wait for the UN to act? Obama redux.

[over it]

3 hours ago, baboon said:

Just as long as you are far, far away from the hostilities, eh?

I don't agree with the US on many things, removing little Kimmy from a life of a life of pleasure resulting from the misery of others is one topic I wholeheartedly support! 

[ilostmypassword]

43 minutes ago, over it said:

I don't agree with the US on many things, removing little Kimmy from a life of a life of pleasure resulting from the misery of others is one topic I wholeheartedly support! 

I wasn't aware that was the US position.

[mrwebb8825]

I hope he does run another test and President Trump waits a day or 2 until he has his obligatory "See How Great I Am" parade, then drops the 1st bomber load right in front of his face.

[craigt3365]

39 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

I wasn't aware that was the US position.

All options are on the table according to Tillerson.

[otherstuff1957]

In Bannon's interview (the one he was fired for), he pointed out that there is no military solution to the North Korean problem that does not involve a large number - he said 10 million, which is probably high - of South Korean casualties. 

 

While I am very far from being a fan of Bannon, he was right about this!

[ilostmypassword]

7 minutes ago, craigt3365 said:

All options are on the table according to Tillerson.

therefore?

[craigt3365]

58 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

therefore?

You said this:

Quote

I wasn't aware that was the US position.

I just said, according to Tillerson,  all options are on the table. The US prefers a diplomatic solution. NK doesn't appear interested in that.

[ilostmypassword]

1 minute ago, craigt3365 said:

You said this:

I just said, according to Tillerson,  all options are on the table. The US prefers a diplomatic solution. NK doesn't appear interested in that.

What are the criteria of this solution?

[craigt3365]

6 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

What are the criteria of this solution?

What the entire  UNSC requests. Get rid of nuclear weapons.

[ilostmypassword]

28 minutes ago, craigt3365 said:

What the entire  UNSC requests. Get rid of nuclear weapons.

It seems extremelly unlikely that will happen. Kim only has to look at the examples of Libya and Iran. 

[craigt3365]

28 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

It seems extremelly unlikely that will happen. Kim only has to look at the examples of Libya and Iran. 

That's what he thinks. Comparing NK to Libya is bs. Kim is mentally unstable. Nukes won't save him just like they wouldn't have saved Gaddafi. He's an insane dictator that brutalizes his people. The world would be better off without him.

 

He thinks it's for his survival. He doesn't deserve to survive considering how many he's killed.

 

 

[ilostmypassword]

1 minute ago, craigt3365 said:

That's what he thinks. Comparing NK to Libya is bs. Kim is mentally unstable. Nukes won't save him just like they wouldn't have saved Gaddafi. He's an insane dictator that brutalizes his people. The world would be better off without him.

 

He thinks it's for his survival. He doesn't deserve to survive considering how many he's killed.

 

 

Thank you for the moralizing and the empty threats. Now let's return to reality.

[craigt3365]

7 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

Thank you for the moralizing and the empty threats. Now let's return to reality.

Reality.

http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/kim-jongun-has-executed-340-people-in-five-years-for-crimes-including-drinking-and-slouching/news-story/32d90b4a691b85b0ac66c802ee263c38

[ilostmypassword]

3 minutes ago, craigt3365 said:

Reality.

http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/kim-jongun-has-executed-340-people-in-five-years-for-crimes-including-drinking-and-slouching/news-story/32d90b4a691b85b0ac66c802ee263c38

This comes as a shock. Clearly the revelation that Kim John Un has not been working for the Salvation Army all these year is relevant to the question of how North Korea will be compelled to surrender its nuclear weapons and capability.

[RoyDee]

14 hours ago, hawker9000 said:

ANY news of continued progress with this threat and the B-1s should fly again, along with some naval activity just outside N. Korea's territorial waters (and preferably within S. Korea's territorial waters, with S. Korea's approval of course, and hopefully their participation).

 

'Don't know why the UN sanctions haven't been ratcheted up to the maximum already.  There should be a total economic boycott, freezing of assets abroad, and a blockade in place around N. Korea right now!

 

Please, no drivel about the hearts & minds of the N. Korean people.  Yes, they're starving and worsening the sanctions probably worsens their suffering.  But the hard truth is that they've been totally and hopelessly brainwashed & subjugated for decades and are a lost cause until Kim is long and truly gone.

 

Would not normally agree with aggressive stance, but the fat kid is toying around (must be with Chinese backing) thinking that he is a "superpower"  because nobody has seriously challenged him as yet. There are so many more pressing problems in the world - we don't need to be constantly distracted by this. Why not the sniper solution? Would it uncover a hornet's nest of collusion.

[ilostmypassword]

1 minute ago, RoyDee said:

Would not normally agree with aggressive stance, but the fat kid is toying around (must be with Chinese backing) thinking that he is a "superpower"  because nobody has seriously challenged him as yet. There are so many more pressing problems in the world - we don't need to be constantly distracted by this. Why not the sniper solution? Would it uncover a hornet's nest of collusion.

Another movie buff with a novel idea. Good thing North Korea is not the closest thing to an absolute police state there is on this planet. Otherwise your plan would be ridiculous.
 

[craigt3365]

1 hour ago, ilostmypassword said:

Another movie buff with a novel idea. Good thing North Korea is not the closest thing to an absolute police state there is on this planet. Otherwise your plan would be ridiculous.
 

Actually,  his post is far from ridiculous. Sad you don't see NK as a police state. They are a perfect example of one. Text book case.

[Jdiddy]

There are so many more pressing problems in the world

Well NK seem to be doing a mighty fine job of standing up to probably the most dangerous one of those problems, US imperial bullying and war mongering

 

Fat Kim and his style of government aside, i admire them for it

[ilostmypassword]

23 minutes ago, craigt3365 said:

Actually,  his post is far from ridiculous. Sad you don't see NK as a police state. They are a perfect example of one. Text book case.

Sad you didn't see that I was saying North Korea is the most extreme police state on the planet. Hence the foolishness of his plan. Unless you believe James Bond is a real person.