British expats in Thailand feeling the misery as the UK pound drops to record low levels.

[scubascuba3]

 
 
Yeah mate. You've obviously not taken two seconds to read my post. Two things. 1) I don't - in any meaningful sense - buy stocks. 2) I don't - in any meaningful sense - buy stocks. Now I appreciate that strictly speaking that's only one thing, but it's such an important thing I thought it was worth mentioning twice. If you "bought stocks" that were "recommended", and they haven't recovered since 2007, then you obviously did the precise opposite of what I've said I did. 
 
I've only ever bought long-established income producing widely diversified investment trusts. I've never bought a single company stock in my life. In my opinion you'd have to be an idiot to do this. The Barclay's Equity-Gilt study makes it clear. The long run return on shares is 5.1%. The private investor doesn't know, and doesn't know who knows.  Never ever buy a single share, never follow a trend, never follow a recommendation, never dabble. Wait until there's blood all over the streets, buy widely diversified trusts that have been chugging along since the 19th century, never sell, don't trade, spend most of the dividends. Or don't. I'm not going to argue. Stay in cash for ever, leave cash only to buy poured concrete in the Algarve when every other nutter is doing it....whatever. What works is well-established. If folk don't want to do this, I'm completely cool about it. I get another load of dough in two weeks from Securities trust of Scotland. They own lots of ordinary solid companies. they pay out every three months. I'm effectively being paid to 1) wait, and 2) swallow the volatility. Nobody else should do this!! Do whatever you think. 

I agree, buy low, sell higher. I don't look for recommendations, i ignore them. I invest in investment funds mostly, occasionally i go for a company but only if its crashed and i think undervalued. Usually i pick very good performing funds which have a good track record 5-10 years. The thing with investment funds is you need to factor in exchange rates also and the impact on the fund price. No point investing in a £ US Fund if you think £ will get stronger outweighing any US equity gains.

Most people buy high sell low whilst panicking and then want to buy a Pattaya condo for passive income.

[AlexRich]

GBP is cratering as a consequence of the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit negotiations. GBP is historically low against other major currencies but is likely to "mean-revert" once the post-Brexit situation becomes clearer ... although I doubt we'll get that clarity until sometime in 2018.

[tso310]

5 hours ago, emilymat said:

It's cause and effect. Brexit was the cause and the effect is what we have.

 

I have yet to meet a Brit here (I am one by the way) who supported us remaining in Europe. I went back to the UK to vote 'remain ' during the referendum.

 

 

There are more than you think. 

[jacko45k]

14 hours ago, Kwasaki said:

This has been done to death,  l can only write/say as l've said before numerous times if research history & planning was done by retiree's wanted to stay and live in Thailand then it shouldn't be a problem.

I say the events pre say 2006 have been above and beyond any foresight and planning.

Who could have predicted Brexit or the 2008 crash?

 

I was thinking along the lines of 5% interest on fixed deposits and over 55 baht /£ absolute minimum (it was nearer 70 at that time).

 

Pensions have hardly compensated for such.

 

 

[dotpoom]

You talk about the pound sterling loosing it's value and consequences of same. But does the situation not equally affect all the Europeans (using the Euro) and have been affected for a lot longer.

   Around 15 years ago the Euro was worth, at one point, around 54 Baht. Since then it has been steadly dropping. Now at around 38.5 Bt. after rising a little of late.

   It's something a lot of people have been having to adjust to for a long period now.

[Fairynuff]

10 hours ago, Craig krup said:

a decent condo is 6,000 or less,

I can only nagine your definition of a cheap one then

[BuaBS]

I'll bet the bitcoin folk are laughing their as_ off.

[baansgr]

10 hours ago, Craig krup said:

 

The one thing I would never, ever do is "dabble" in the stock market. But when Murray International Investment trust went from 1200p to 830p - a massively diversified, bog standard, international investment trust - I did my tank. At 1200p it was ludicrous: you were paying 10% more than the underlying shares were worth. At 830p it was a opportunity (perhaps once in a lifetime) to buy when the underlying shares were worth more than the investment trust shares - a discount. Now the *******g things fell to less than 770: I could have puked. But I held on, and now they're way above 1200p About ten days ago I got a big dividend. Tasty! Now I'll never sell, I'll just keep taking the divis. Never dabble. Never trade. Pick something straightforward - City of London Investment Trust, perhaps - hopefor a complete market meltdown, and - if it happens - get in at a decent price and hold forever. But this is just what I'd do, and have done. I'm not recommending it for anyone else. 

Having previously worked with Neil Woodford at Invesco Perpetual, its really not that simple.

[Farang99]

14 hours ago, theguyfromanotherforum said:

Meh.... this is still a first world problem.

 

Worse comes to worst the British expats have the option of returning back home to free medicare and numerous benefits.

 

As a 44 year old expat who is doing quite well financially, I still stress every day over my future in Thailand, but I do have the option of returning "home". No one should feel sorry for me when 80% of world population wonders what they'll eat today.

If you have no address in UK and have lived abroad for some years you will not be eligible for free health care

[robblok]

1 hour ago, dotpoom said:

You talk about the pound sterling loosing it's value and consequences of same. But does the situation not equally affect all the Europeans (using the Euro) and have been affected for a lot longer.

   Around 15 years ago the Euro was worth, at one point, around 54 Baht. Since then it has been steadly dropping. Now at around 38.5 Bt. after rising a little of late.

   It's something a lot of people have been having to adjust to for a long period now.

Euro is rising.. the difference between euro and pound has always been a lot higher than 3.2 bt  usually upwards of 5-7 so the pound is losing a lot more. I am not sure how high the Euro has been but I have seen it 50 would love to see those times again but i doubt it. Would be happy if it goes back to 40+ now at 39.2 its definitely improving while the pound is not. (not that 1 bt or 2 bt is going to make a lot of difference)

[mstevens]

11 hours ago, tomas557 said:

 

How would a British retiree who arrived here more than 5 years ago been able to research or plan for the current situation?

He should plan for a worst case scenario which includes a major drop in the value of his currency against the Thai baht AND minimal or even zero returns on his capital AND inflation above historic averages.  If he pumps numbers from such a scenario in to a spreadsheet and the spreadsheet shows that he will still have money left over at what would be a fair guestimate of the end of his life expectancy then he has passed the retirement in Thailand financial stress test.  If his finances don't stretch that far then he has a few decisions to make such as working longer, spending less etc. or simply taking the risk.

[mstevens]

10 hours ago, Kwasaki said:

By looking at the history of what's happened with the Thai baht rate and the £ rate was what l did.

Got most of my £'s over in Sept 2005 when it was 75 my guess would be that we will never see that again but who knows.

I reckon you'll see 25 before you see 75.

[tomas557]

9 minutes ago, mstevens said:

He should plan for a worst case scenario which includes a major drop in the value of his currency against the Thai baht AND minimal or even zero returns on his capital AND inflation above historic averages.  If he pumps numbers from such a scenario in to a spreadsheet and the spreadsheet shows that he will still have money left over at what would be a fair guestimate of the end of his life expectancy then he has passed the retirement in Thailand financial stress test.  If his finances don't stretch that far then he has a few decisions to make such as working longer, spending less etc. or simply taking the risk.

As I'm not  Brit, this doesn't actually affects me, but you want to say that in let's say 2006 you took in account that the pound would be 42 to the Baht today?

 

5 minutes ago, mstevens said:

I reckon you'll see 25 before you see 75.

Here you have proven that you're just an other wanna be financial expert, who has no idea what he's talking about.

 

 

Edited August 28, 2017 by tomas557

[theguyfromanotherforum]

44 minutes ago, Farang99 said:

If you have no address in UK and have lived abroad for some years you will not be eligible for free health care

 

Come back and re-establish the residency and you'll have all the free healthcare in the world.

 

 

[TKDfella]

Well, I'm thinking of cycling samlor...my friend says I have the legs for it. But at my age I wouldn't be able to get a work permit, Ha!

[almodeller]

When the school holidays are over and people are not selling their £'s to buy other currencies in holiday places the £ should recover

[Baerboxer]

15 hours ago, theguyfromanotherforum said:

Meh.... this is still a first world problem.

 

Worse comes to worst the British expats have the option of returning back home to free medicare and numerous benefits.

 

As a 44 year old expat who is doing quite well financially, I still stress every day over my future in Thailand, but I do have the option of returning "home". No one should feel sorry for me when 80% of world population wonders what they'll eat today.

 

Very true mate. We all get wound up about things relative to our own context.

 

Sometimes it's hard to remember a great many people have no home, no access to medicine, no guarantee of the next meal or even clean drinking water, no sanitation, no access to education and incredibly limited opportunity. And they don't fret because someone has a nicer car or new designer handbag!

 

 

[rickudon]

I do not know anyone who is actually planning on returning, but quite a few who no longer socialise much or eat out. Whether they can ride out the storm or not i do not know.

 

In my case. i was made redundant in 2007 and after some exploratory trips and planning, came here to live in 2010. When i MADE MY PLANS we were getting over 60 baht to the pound and i was getting 6% interest on my savings. As for stocks, i was in a tracker fund which has only just recovered from the 2008 crash - and no dividends paid. I thought i would be comfortably able to survive until my state pension kicked in. I had an income of over 50,000 baht a month in 2010 ....... at the beginning of this year my index linked pensions and savings interest was under 45,000 baht. Not quite what i planned for. Also having a wife and daughter added to the cost (nappies. milk. and now school fees). Savings mainly gone. I do now have the state pension, but will i be able to live like a king - no way! Frugality will continue until the end. No new car - possibly ever. No new house. Do have some useless derelict rice fields but who will buy them until the city grows out to them. Maybe my daughter will benefit.

 

As for Brexit, reality is dawning for the government that it has a choice of the frying pan or the fire. Sure some will benefit from Brexit - exporters briefly have a currency advantage - but inflation will soon erode that as imports cost more, and a hard Brexit will cut UK's exports to the EU severely. I expect Euro parity by 2019 - maybe earlier. Brexit financially was an insane decision short to medium term, and i expect 90% of those who voted for it will end up worse off.

[baansgr]

19 minutes ago, almodeller said:

When the school holidays are over and people are not selling their £'s to buy other currencies in holiday places the £ should recover

Once Mark Carney goes and interest rates are increased even by a quarter point, Sterling will increase. Everytime Sterling gains ground, Carney spouts off something negative to bring it back down. hes been doing it since he was in office and will continue to do so. Sterling was 70-THB costs equate to 70% loss, anyone with a pension/income in 2009 of £1000 now needs £1,700 and that's without any domestic increases which in the same period have increased dramatically for everyday foodstuffs. Cut your clothe accordingly but even that's hard with a 70% downturn.

[Briggsy]

UK interest rates and the perception of how and when they will move is the key as the previous poster, baansgr, points out.

 

Many posters place too much weight on the political charade in Thailand. This has little or no effect on the exchange rate.

[torrzent]

12 hours ago, tomas557 said:

6000 for a DECENT condo?

 

You must be joking, an yes a big bottle of beer can be had for 80 Baht, but not everyone fancies drinking at the concrete tables outside 7/11.

 

But when I looked at your previous post I understood already that your not talking out of your mouth.

Tables?  Chairs?  Sounds real delux.....thought I would have to share a curb with a soi dog!

[RichardColeman]

I just tighten my bet that little bit tighter. I can live on less if needs be. Stay home a little more. The pound will pick up - sometime. Either that or I'll put the tenants rent up in the UK. 

 

Worst case scenario for me, I sell my house in the south UK (crappy old 2 bed council house) and buy 4 bed detached house up north with 100k quid in the bank for the embassy and visa to bring the Mrs and baby to the UK. I get an early pension in 22 months and with that and money in the bank, I feel a little secure. 

 

I very pity those on just UK state pension right now.

 

I pity more those whose budget means their would be bargirl wife starts looking for a new ticket.

[torrzent]

12 hours ago, Craig krup said:

 

 

Yeah mate. You've obviously not taken two seconds to read my post. Two things. 1) I don't - in any meaningful sense - buy stocks. 2) I don't - in any meaningful sense - buy stocks. ......

Would you mind repeating that....I am a bit slow on the uptake today.....

[RichardColeman]

2 hours ago, Farang99 said:

If you have no address in UK and have lived abroad for some years you will not be eligible for free health care

Well, actually, all you need do is go kick a policeman and go to jail for the night, instant health care.

[gamini]

I don't feel sorry for them at all. If you're going to live in another country you should make allowances for currency fluctuations. When I permanently retired to Thailand, I cashed in my UK investments and deposits and changed them into Thai baht. In spite of the political upheavals, the Thai economy has always performed better than the UK, in the long run. I invested some money in property and some in the Thai stock exchange and both have produced good results. The problem with many expats here (non retirees) is that they're too lazy to do an honest day's work and try to live here on a shoestring budget.

[Kwasaki]

3 hours ago, jacko45k said:

I say the events pre say 2006 have been above and beyond any foresight and planning.

Who could have predicted Brexit or the 2008 crash?

 

I was thinking along the lines of 5% interest on fixed deposits and over 55 baht /£ absolute minimum (it was nearer 70 at that time).

 

Pensions have hardly compensated for such.

 

 

Those unpredictable events would make a exchange different agreed.

I looked further back at the time and saw lower rates also took into account of my pensions being fixed and frozen.

[bazza73]

18 hours ago, cyberfarang said:

If I didn`t have such short fat stumpy ugly hairy legs, I might be considering that option myself.

There's plenty of those on Walking Street, all you need is a shave.

[bazza73]

13 hours ago, tomas557 said:

6000 for a DECENT condo?

 

You must be joking, an yes a big bottle of beer can be had for 80 Baht, but not everyone fancies drinking at the concrete tables outside 7/11.

 

It depends on where you are in Thailand. In Chiang Mai, I pay 8500 baht per month for a fully furnished studio apartment, 46 sqm, with swimming pool.

There are plenty of rooms here with ensuite bathroom and aircon going for 4000 - 5000 baht/month.

With the beer, again it depends where you are. The S&P at Rimping charges 170 baht. At my closest restaurant, a large bottle of Leo or Chang is 60 baht.

Admittedly Bangkok is more expensive; however, I would not live there if you paid me.

 

[toofarnorth]

I wonder how many over here just have their UK pension , with it frozen how are we faring . When I came out here in 2005 I was getting 73 B- quid , I lived in Hua-Hin , a small bottle of beer there was 70B.  Now I live up north near the border and where I drink 2 big U beers and a bucket of ice is 120B .  Ok I cannot travel around like we used to but , I could never ever go back to England , just have to weather the storm.

[jeab1980]

13 hours ago, tomas557 said:

6000 for a DECENT condo?

 

You must be joking, an yes a big bottle of beer can be had for 80 Baht, but not everyone fancies drinking at the concrete tables outside 7/11.

 

But when I looked at your previous post I understood already that your not talking out of your mouth.

6000 got us a decent Condo when we were in Pattaya with wifi. Same condo now 6500. How do i know brother has it now.

Ever thought of buying the bottles at 7/11 and taking them home?