Plunging British Pound Saps Expat Pension Spending Power

[nauseus]

Everyone should be aware that GBP/THB has only bettered 50 since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Before that it was only better than 40 intermittently. Exceptionally, it went to 90 for just one day in early 1998.

 

Since the 2008 (not Asian) crisis, it has been trending down - the pound has basically just depreciated, with the baht slowly going the other way.

 

Have a look at the long-term chart and count your blessings it's not back at 28!!

 

 

 

[simoh1490]

4 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Everyone should be aware that GBP/THB has only bettered 50 since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Before that it was only better than 40 intermittently. Exceptionally, it went to 90 for just one day in early 1998.

 

Since the 2008 (not Asian) crisis, it has been trending down - the pound has basically just depreciated, with the baht slowly going the other way.

 

Have a look at the long-term chart and count your blessings it's not back at 28!!

 

 

 

Pre-'97 crash the Baht was hard pegged to USD, today it is not.

 

Also, the value of The Pound has been in decline for at least 50 years: https://www.ft.com/content/30dd70be-a9cb-11e7-ab66-21cc87a2edde

[nauseus]

5 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Pre-'97 crash the Baht was hard pegged to USD, today it is not.

 

Also, the value of The Pound has been in decline for at least 50 years: https://www.ft.com/content/30dd70be-a9cb-11e7-ab66-21cc87a2edde

The point was to demonstrate historical forex fluctuation. No need to be so picky.

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, nauseus said:

The point was to demonstrate historical forex fluctuation. No need to be so picky.

I'm not trying to be picky, I'm simply trying to give a more complete answer as to why! I think you're right to remind everyone that the Pound's long-term value is what it was, but I also think it's important for people to understand why. The fact that the Dollar peg was removed in '97 and that the Baht has now retuned to pre '97 levels says much about the growth of the Thai economy. But the other half of the equation is also telling, the decline of the Pound over time, which is why it may be better to look at the performance of the two currencies separately and to derive two separate reasons and answers for todays value versus history. Let's not forget, today we have a very weak Dollar, it's at 92 on the Dollar Index, think how much the Pound and the Baht would be worth if the Dollar were at par!

[George FmplesdaCosteedback]

20 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Maybe not you, but perhaps for the 70-year-old retiree living on fixed income, a pension that hasn't increased for the past six years and a Pound that has devalued year on year, for the same period.

I say go back and see how you fare on the full pension you will get in the UK.

The pension regulations have been in place for many years, the devaluation was always possible, the pound dropped 18% after the referendum 18 months ago and has stayed almost the same since apart form normal fluctuation.

Check the increase in gas and electric prices in the UK as a comparison before you leave though (it's cold over there)... and no council tax either!

You sound like a "remoaner".

 

[simoh1490]

50 minutes ago, George FmplesdaCosteedback said:

I say go back and see how you fare on the full pension you will get in the UK.

The pension regulations have been in place for many years, the devaluation was always possible, the pound dropped 18% after the referendum 18 months ago and has stayed almost the same since apart form normal fluctuation.

Check the increase in gas and electric prices in the UK as a comparison before you leave though (it's cold over there)... and no council tax either!

You sound like a "remoaner".

 

A devaluation was always possible, just like the world might end tomorrow is also possible, that doesn't stop us having empathy for the pensioners who are in this difficult situation and who are seeing their lives turned upside down during their twilight years, DOES IT!

[George FmplesdaCosteedback]

23 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

A devaluation was always possible, just like the world might end tomorrow is also possible, that doesn't stop us having empathy for the pensioners who are in this difficult situation and who are seeing their lives turned upside down during their twilight years, DOES IT!

Hey, I'm one of them! I have a fixed income too.

What annoys me is it has been like this for years.

Pensions rise by the "triple lock" at about 3.5% when you live in the UK and the lock on ex-pat pensions has been in force for many years for those residing outside the qualifying countries.

Fact remains that the major costs to live remain cheaper here than in the UK (with the exception of buying a car if you want to dice with death on the roads). Gas and electric goes up every year by 6-7% in the UK.

Inflation in Thailand is lower here than the UK too.

 

People have moved to Spain and got the pension increases, but lost a home in the land/condo scams and property crash that happened.

 

"The world might end tomorrow is also possible", indeed it could and in two years the Baht might be 70+ to the pound... (I was here in the early nineties when it was 80++)

What is that supposed to imply?

Invest in the NK Won?

 

My income has suffered, but unless the already over valued baht gets completely over blown (that will hurt exports, to which the opposite applies in the UK), I am reasonably covered.

I know people that live far above their means here and have spent too much on properties and left themselves with little in reserve. That is their problem for lack of planning.

 

The whole thing about this post is that it is essentially wrongly headlined and badly conceived as there is no "PLUNGING POUND".

It dropped about 18% 18 months ago, the value of the Baht has increased and the Dollar has decreased since.

 

The pound is the highest since late

June 2016 today...

 

Maybe you GET THAT!!!

 

 

 

 

[simoh1490]

49 minutes ago, George FmplesdaCosteedback said:

Hey, I'm one of them! I have a fixed income too.

What annoys me is it has been like this for years.

Pensions rise by the "triple lock" at about 3.5% when you live in the UK and the lock on ex-pat pensions has been in force for many years for those residing outside the qualifying countries.

Fact remains that the major costs to live remain cheaper here than in the UK (with the exception of buying a car if you want to dice with death on the roads). Gas and electric goes up every year by 6-7% in the UK.

Inflation in Thailand is lower here than the UK too.

 

People have moved to Spain and got the pension increases, but lost a home in the land/condo scams and property crash that happened.

 

"The world might end tomorrow is also possible", indeed it could and in two years the Baht might be 70+ to the pound... (I was here in the early nineties when it was 80++)

What is that supposed to imply?

Invest in the NK Won?

 

My income has suffered, but unless the already over valued baht gets completely over blown (that will hurt exports, to which the opposite applies in the UK), I am reasonably covered.

I know people that live far above their means here and have spent too much on properties and left themselves with little in reserve. That is their problem for lack of planning.

 

The whole thing about this post is that it is essentially wrongly headlined and badly conceived as there is no "PLUNGING POUND".

It dropped about 18% 18 months ago, the value of the Baht has increased and the Dollar has decreased since.

 

The pound is the highest since late

June 2016 today...

 

Maybe you GET THAT!!!

 

 

 

 

I note you are not equipped to discuss forex or economics, neither by virtue of knowledge or good manners, never mind, here's some reading for you:

 

http://www.economist.com/node/12814762

 

http://www.miketodd.net/encyc/dollhist.htm

 

The cheat sheet answers, should be too lazy to read the articles in the links I provided or not be able to understand them, confirm the value of the Pound has been falling since the second world war, indeed, even before that. Specifically, in this century it was overvalued twice, once up to 2007 and again at the time of and in light of the referendum on Europe - many economists foresee a third stage which will take place within the next two years. 

 

BTW the Pound was hard linked to the US Dollar until the Asian crisis in 1997, after which it was unpegged and allowed to float freely - it was in '97 and '98 that GBP/THB reached in excess of 80 baht but only for short periods, not during the early '90's, regardless of whether you were here or not! 

 

And the UK triple lock on state pensions is worth 2.5% per year, not 3.5%.

 

If you have any questions on this, do some research!

[simoh1490]

Double post.

[nauseus]

4 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

I note you are not equipped to discuss forex or economics, neither by virtue of knowledge or good manners, never mind, here's some reading for you:

 

http://www.economist.com/node/12814762

 

http://www.miketodd.net/encyc/dollhist.htm

 

The cheat sheet answers, should be too lazy to read the articles in the links I provided or not be able to understand them, confirm the value of the Pound has been falling since the second world war, indeed, even before that. Specifically, in this century it was overvalued twice, once up to 2007 and again at the time of and in light of the referendum on Europe - many economists foresee a third stage which will take place within the next two years. 

 

BTW the Pound was hard linked to the US Dollar until the Asian crisis in 1997, after which it was unpegged and allowed to float freely - it was in '97 and '98 that GBP/THB reached in excess of 80 baht but only for short periods, not during the early '90's, regardless of whether you were here or not! 

 

And the UK triple lock on state pensions is worth 2.5% per year, not 3.5%.

 

If you have any questions on this, do some research!

A very instructive lecture - except that the pound has never been pegged to the dollar - I suppose you mean the baht?

 

 

[sniggie]

Clear evidence this morning that the Baht is not pegged to the US dollar (or Hong Kong for that matter). The BBC proudly announced that the Pound was at it's highest level since the 2016 referendum. Not against the Baht it's not! Maybe the BOT is following the Pound now!

[nauseus]

53 minutes ago, sniggie said:

Clear evidence this morning that the Baht is not pegged to the US dollar (or Hong Kong for that matter). The BBC proudly announced that the Pound was at it's highest level since the 2016 referendum. Not against the Baht it's not! Maybe the BOT is following the Pound now!

The baht was pegged to the dollar to 1997 but not now. Recent THB appreciation is mainly due to foreign investment in bonds and other Thai assets.

 

The pound (and Euro) and most other currencies are up relative to the dollar, mostly because the USD has been weakening for a year or so.

 

 

[George FmplesdaCosteedback]

22 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

I note you are not equipped to discuss forex or economics, neither by virtue of knowledge or good manners, never mind, here's some reading for you:

 

http://www.economist.com/node/12814762

 

http://www.miketodd.net/encyc/dollhist.htm

 

The cheat sheet answers, should be too lazy to read the articles in the links I provided or not be able to understand them, confirm the value of the Pound has been falling since the second world war, indeed, even before that. Specifically, in this century it was overvalued twice, once up to 2007 and again at the time of and in light of the referendum on Europe - many economists foresee a third stage which will take place within the next two years. 

 

BTW the Pound was hard linked to the US Dollar until the Asian crisis in 1997, after which it was unpegged and allowed to float freely - it was in '97 and '98 that GBP/THB reached in excess of 80 baht but only for short periods, not during the early '90's, regardless of whether you were here or not! 

 

And the UK triple lock on state pensions is worth 2.5% per year, not 3.5%.

 

If you have any questions on this, do some research!

Thanks for the laugh. I can show statistics the pound was 80ish to the baht in about 92, maybe you should look that up.

All currencies devalue over time, and exchange rates fluctuate.

It depends on what currency you use as comparison.

The 2nd World War, well it financially broke the UK and we were still paying the US "lend lease" installments in the 21st century.

The pension increase in the UK is subject to the triple lock rules and again can differ year to year. An average since it was introduced may well show 2.5% but it is dependent on the factors that control it and the increase is intended to keep pensions above the rate of UK inflation.

 

You ignore my comment on the OP,  and the whole thread is nonsense as the pound is not plunging.

That is my point if you missed it, ignored it or it is beyond your English language comprehension ability.

 

Try to keep up with the news...

http://www.bbc.com/news/business/markets/europe/lse_ukx

 

If you are such a financial genius how come you are reliant on the UK pension to survive, if you have or when you do retire?

 

 

[billd766]

8 hours ago, George FmplesdaCosteedback said:

Thanks for the laugh. I can show statistics the pound was 80ish to the baht in about 92, maybe you should look that up.

All currencies devalue over time, and exchange rates fluctuate.

It depends on what currency you use as comparison.

The 2nd World War, well it financially broke the UK and we were still paying the US "lend lease" installments in the 21st century.

The pension increase in the UK is subject to the triple lock rules and again can differ year to year. An average since it was introduced may well show 2.5% but it is dependent on the factors that control it and the increase is intended to keep pensions above the rate of UK inflation.

 

You ignore my comment on the OP,  and the whole thread is nonsense as the pound is not plunging.

That is my point if you missed it, ignored it or it is beyond your English language comprehension ability.

 

Try to keep up with the news...

http://www.bbc.com/news/business/markets/europe/lse_ukx

 

If you are such a financial genius how come you are reliant on the UK pension to survive, if you have or when you do retire?

 

 

 

Here is a link showing the GBP/THB forex rates since 1953. This particular year is for 1992 but you can change the years and the currencies.

 

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php?A=1&C1=GBP&C2=THB&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=1992&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=01&MM2=12&YYYY2=1992&btnOK=Go!

[simoh1490]

On 13/01/2018 at 9:40 AM, nauseus said:

A very instructive lecture - except that the pound has never been pegged to the dollar - I suppose you mean the baht?

 

 

Well done for picking up on the typo, really good that, bravo.

 

Now, there are forum rules about stalking so I suggest you read them and chose carefully the next time you respond to a post, especially one of mine, since I've now got you down for responding to a series of my posts on different subjects.

[simoh1490]

On 14/01/2018 at 3:19 AM, George FmplesdaCosteedback said:

Thanks for the laugh. I can show statistics the pound was 80ish to the baht in about 92, maybe you should look that up.

All currencies devalue over time, and exchange rates fluctuate.

It depends on what currency you use as comparison.

The 2nd World War, well it financially broke the UK and we were still paying the US "lend lease" installments in the 21st century.

The pension increase in the UK is subject to the triple lock rules and again can differ year to year. An average since it was introduced may well show 2.5% but it is dependent on the factors that control it and the increase is intended to keep pensions above the rate of UK inflation.

 

You ignore my comment on the OP,  and the whole thread is nonsense as the pound is not plunging.

That is my point if you missed it, ignored it or it is beyond your English language comprehension ability.

 

Try to keep up with the news...

http://www.bbc.com/news/business/markets/europe/lse_ukx

 

If you are such a financial genius how come you are reliant on the UK pension to survive, if you have or when you do retire?

 

 

Only in your dreams can you post proof that GBP/THB was 80 ish in about 1992 now stop wasting everyone's time on this point.

 

No, all currencies do not devalue over time, unless you intend in that remark to refer to inflation, which is not a function of a currency pair.

 

And your points about pensions are also wrong yet again, it's not a case of 2.5% average since they were introduced, the 2.5% was a part of the triple lock introduced by Cameron/Osborne, not 3.5% and not lifetime average.

 

And I think you and me are done here since I'm not going to waste  my time correcting your understanding of these things repeatedly.

 

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, simoh1490 said:

Well done for picking up on the typo, really good that, bravo.

 

Now, there are forum rules about stalking so I suggest you read them and chose carefully the next time you respond to a post, especially one of mine, since I've now got you down for responding to a series of my posts on different subjects.

Stalking? No way......let's leave the interpretation of the rules to the moderators.

[George FmplesdaCosteedback]

On 1/14/2018 at 11:34 AM, billd766 said:

 

Here is a link showing the GBP/THB forex rates since 1953. This particular year is for 1992 but you can change the years and the currencies.

 

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php?A=1&C1=GBP&C2=THB&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=1992&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=01&MM2=12&YYYY2=1992&btnOK=Go!

Okay, but the rate change at the time made me quite a bit of money over a period of about 18 months buying and selling.

Maybe it was 38 to 50, not 50 to 75.

I used a different set of stats but no reason to think these are any different.

The point remains, the pound is not plunging and the premise of the OP is wrong.

 

[George FmplesdaCosteedback]

10 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Only in your dreams can you post proof that GBP/THB was 80 ish in about 1992 now stop wasting everyone's time on this point.

 

No, all currencies do not devalue over time, unless you intend in that remark to refer to inflation, which is not a function of a currency pair.

 

And your points about pensions are also wrong yet again, it's not a case of 2.5% average since they were introduced, the 2.5% was a part of the triple lock introduced by Cameron/Osborne, not 3.5% and not lifetime average.

 

And I think you and me are done here since I'm not going to waste  my time correcting your understanding of these things repeatedly.

 

Yes done and blocked. You got the pound to dollar wrong, never a typo. I made money on buying and selling around that time but it looks like it was a lower starting point.

Currencies do not devalue over time, year right, what planet do you live on?

You still don't answer the question. Is the pound plunging now?

 

Bye bye.

 

[simoh1490]

Interesting to read that the Thai bond market is now weighted very much in favour of long-term bonds at 76% with the remainder at under one year. mostly this seems to be foreigners buying up emerging market debt, another stressor on THB but seems at odds with the bond market in general where short duration is the trend.

 

Even more Interesting though is that locals investing in Foreign Investment Funds (FIF's) has now reached 1.1 trillion baht, more than the total value of all Thai bonds purchased by foreign investors. Unanswered questions on this point concern where those purchases are being made, on or offshore and in what currency. Presumably, these are offshore funds as now permitted by the fairly recent change in BOT regs. to allow exporters to invest their foreign earnings in offshore investments rather than being forced to exchange them for THB, in order to prevent further upwards strain on THB. Presumably, these are also foreign currency investments rather than investments using THB. 

 

If the above is correct, at some point those FIF's will be repatriated and converted to THB and/or the earnings from them will be and that will have a sizeable impact on the value of THB, if there's ever a rush for the exits from Western markets. What that also means is that the true value of THB is being understated by some THB 1.1 trillion since those funds are not yet converted into THB but are still owned by local Thai's.