Poll a boost to Thai economy

[webfact]

Poll a boost to economy 

By   WICHIT CHAITRONG 
THE NATION  
 

 

ELECTION WILL boost investment and consumption this year, pushing gross domestic product to 4.3 per cent up from 4 per cent last year, says Standard Chartered Bank.

 

“Our GDP projection rate is higher than the market consensus of 4 per cent,” Tim Leelahaphan, economist at Standard Chartered Bank (Thai) told a press conference yesterday.

 

He said the Bank of Thailand which forecast GDP growth rate of 3.9 per cent and other economic research houses would later revise their projections. 

 

He was optimistic that both exports, investment and consumption will drive growth this year.

 

Currently there are 20 investment projects implemented by the government worth a total of Bt700 billion and the government injection of Bt100 bn each year is equivalent roughly to one per cent of the economy.

 

Private investment is expected to rise due to higher import of capital and raw material goods. The progress of Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC ) investment project will also draw foreign direct investment to the region. Government is expected to open bidding for investments in the EEC this year, he said.

 

Private consumption will be boosted by the general election, political parties is expected to launch campaign in the third quarter after two organic laws related to election of House representatives and appointments of senators become effective. Election is expected to be held in November.

 

Consumption spending may rise 4-5 per cent year on year from 3 per cent currently , he noted.

 

Foreign investors would also move back into Thai stock market after they are net sale for many years.

 

Election and recovery of Thai economy would also draw capital inflows into stock market, he forecasted.

 

The bank forecasts baht currency will further strengthen. It is expected to reach Bt 31 per dollar, or up 5 per cent this year , after a 10 per cent rise against US dollar last year.

 

Current account surplus would largely contribute to the baht’s strengthening. The surplus is expected to be equivalent to 7 per cent of GDP, down from10 per cent surplus last year.

 

The export growth target 6.5 per cent set by the Commerce Ministry is likely to be met.

 

He projects that the BOT will raise interest rate two times in the second half of the year to 2 per cent by the end of this year.

 

The US Federal Reserve also may raise its policy rate two times to 2 per cent.

 

Risks to Thai economic growth are political uncertainty and depressing farm product prices. But the political risk is low now, he said.

 

Farm sector will still drag the economy due to large numbers of labour, 30 per cent of labour forces. However, it is suffering from lower prices.

 

The external risk is whether major central banks, such as ECB, BOJ and US Fed, would turn hawkish, raising policy rates faster than market expected, he added.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30336419

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-01-17

[HiSoLowSoNoSo]

Why would this farce of an election boots the economy? most investors are fully aware of that the military got long term plans to rule the country. 

[rkidlad]

Yes, especially foreign investors. They’ll be rubbing their hands together at the thought of that rigged election. 

[steven100]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

Currently there are 20 investment projects implemented by the government worth a total of Bt700 billion and the government injection of Bt100 bn each year is equivalent roughly to one per cent of the economy.

 

Private investment is expected to rise due to higher import of capital and raw material goods. The progress of Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC ) investment project will also draw foreign direct investment to the region. Government is expected to open bidding for investments in the EEC this year, he said.

This government is the best thing for Thailand.  Many projects that were being stalled by previous are now being fast tracked and in construction.

[steven100]

Thailands GDP was around 3.5% in 2017 and is expected to be even higher in 2018.

This government is pushing economic development as well as sustainable farming practices and helping the poor.

[gunderhill]

25 minutes ago, steven100 said:

Thailands GDP was around 3.5% in 2017 and is expected to be even higher in 2018.

This government is pushing economic development as well as sustainable farming practices and helping the poor.

Don't  forget also "helping  themselves"

[steven100]

4 minutes ago, gunderhill said:

Don't  forget also "helping  themselves"

oh ......     where are the shins now ?   didn't they help themselves to a life of luxury obscondering billions of baht from Thailand.  ?

[jonclark]

6 minutes ago, steven100 said:

oh ......     where are the shins now ?   didn't they help themselves to a life of luxury obscondering billions of baht from Thailand.  ?

Steve - your reply has to be the worst and weakest denial that the current government are also helping themselves is it not? 

 

Using the behaviour of the shins as a shield to deflect and defend the actions of this government - oh dear 

[steven100]

8 minutes ago, jonclark said:

Steve - your reply has to be the worst and weakest denial that the current government are also helping themselves is it not? 

 

Using the behaviour of the shins as a shield to deflect and defend the actions of this government - oh dear 

I am saying that one should look at the shins for ' helping themselves ' ...   not the Junta.

At least this government is creating jobs and boosting the economy.

The truth hurts some people ....  

[rkidlad]

9 minutes ago, jonclark said:

Steve - your reply has to be the worst and weakest denial that the current government are also helping themselves is it not? 

 

Using the behaviour of the shins as a shield to deflect and defend the actions of this government - oh dear 

Yes, he’s using ‘whataboutism’. Usually used by children when they’ve been caught with their hand in the cookie jar, so to speak. The child thinks their actions are okay because someone else did it. Any parent with half a brain then explains that they don’t care what someone else did. You can’t go round stealing cookies. It’s not only children who do this. Also immature people or people who think they’re special because they weren’t taught at a young age that they’re not. 

[gunderhill]

21 minutes ago, steven100 said:

oh ......     where are the shins now ?   didn't they help themselves to a life of luxury obscondering billions of baht from Thailand.  ?

Sorr  y  thought  we  were  discussing the current "govt" , how  far back  would  you  like to go? 20 years, 50, 100?

[rkidlad]

3 minutes ago, steven100 said:

I am saying that one should look at the shins for ' helping themselves ' ...   not the Junta.

At least this government is creating jobs and boosting the economy.

The truth hurts some people ....  

Question is; why be corrupt at all when you already have money and you’ve taken a country over on the proviso that it will only be temporary and it’s mostly to wipe out corruption. 

 

Sounds more like do as as I say and not as I do. When in history has that not been protested and eventually overthrown? Apart from North Korea, of course ?

[Hayduke]

[1337markus]

The report created by TAT??????????

[jonclark]

1 hour ago, steven100 said:

I am saying that one should look at the shins for ' helping themselves ' ...   not the Junta.

At least this government is creating jobs and boosting the economy.

The truth hurts some people ....  

Lol - Everyone know the Shins had their noses in the trough.

 

But your clumsy post #7  has used the  actions of the shins to defend the junta - which is laughable as you have inadvertently draw a direct and truthful comparison between the the "Junta"  helping themselves and the Shins helping themselves . The pot has just called the kettle black.

 

And please remember Taksin was elected and ran as PM (2001 - 2006) and during that time YoY the Thai economy grew between 7 - 4% during his tenure. So he too created jobs and boosted the economy - Just like the Junta - See they are both the same !!

Edited January 17, 2018 by jonclark

[AGareth2]

2 hours ago, steven100 said:

This government is pushing economic development as well as sustainable farming practices and helping the poor.

tell that to the farmers and the poor

[Srikcir]

2 hours ago, steven100 said:

Thailands GDP was around 3.5% in 2017 and is expected to be even higher in 2018.

This government is pushing economic development as well as sustainable farming practices and helping the poor.

Is this a picture of farmers of money trees?

[Srikcir]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Currently there are 20 investment projects implemented by the government worth a total of Bt700 billion

Mostly financed by China and Japan . I'm sure they'll appreciate Thailand's contribution to their GDP growth.

But let's not forget the additional investment risks created by Prayut himself who used his absolute power to unilaterally terminate a multi-billion baht foreign investment in a gold mine created under the auspices of a free trade agreement, causing the investor alleged substantial financial damage. Prayut refused responsibility for damages. His willingness to breach a free trade agreement can only cast doubt to the sustainability of current and future free trade agreements with Thailand.

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Private investment is expected to rise due to higher import of capital and raw material goods.

When private investment has been virtually zero (hence the reason for almost 100% foreign government investment attracted by substantial tax breaks and 99-year leases), any new private investment can be expected to rise.

What remains is that currently the government's generous tax breaks to attract substantial SME investment has failed. And the unmentioned danger to private investment in Thailand is substantial current GDP growth in neighboring southeast Asian countries.

[USPatriot]

3 hours ago, gunderhill said:

Don't  forget also "helping  themselves"

19 watches and counting?.. more the latter if you ask me

[Dogbarker]

Regretfully one can no longer be assured of anything standard chartered bank says. They pulled out of retail banking and transferred those customers to a Thai bank that cannot provide international transactions! And left many customers disenchanted.

[worgeordie]

"Poll a boost to economy"  it surely will,just think of all those 500 THB notes

been handed out to the voters,trickle down,the poor will benefit,but not in

the long run.

regards worgeordie

[brucec64]

5 hours ago, steven100 said:

oh ......     where are the shins now ?   didn't they help themselves to a life of luxury obscondering billions of baht from Thailand.  ?

 

Nice deflection. Are you also infatuated with soviet propaganda as well as junta generals with shiny buttons (and watches)?

 

Whataboutism (also known as whataboutery) is a variant of the tu quoque logical fallacy that attempts to discredit an opponent's position by charging them with hypocrisy without directly refuting or disproving their argument,^[1][2][3] which is particularly associated with Soviet and Russian propaganda.^[4][5][6] When criticisms were leveled at the Soviet Union, the Soviet response would be "What about..." followed by an event in the Western world.^[7][8][9]

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism

[blubb]

5 hours ago, steven100 said:

oh ......     where are the shins now ?   didn't they help themselves to a life of luxury obscondering billions of baht from Thailand.  ?

Shins: best the would be compulsory purchase for purposes of public utility

[ramrod711]

4 hours ago, Srikcir said:

Mostly financed by China and Japan . I'm sure they'll appreciate Thailand's contribution to their GDP growth.

You seem fairly astute so I'm sure that you would agree that improved infrastructure would almost certainly lead to economic growth?

[Rimmer]

A dangerous troll post has been removed

[Srikcir]

17 minutes ago, ramrod711 said:

You seem fairly astute so I'm sure that you would agree that improved infrastructure would almost certainly lead to economic growth?

In 10-20 years if the State doesn't default first on its foreign loans to finance infrastructure.

Even then the cost of maintenance, retrofits and capital upgrades might still put the system into the "red."

 

Do recall that Prayut invoked Article 44 to expedite the Chinese dual rail project that included bypassing relevant laws and regulations, including the economic viability of the project to pay for itself. There were concerns by economists that such a system financed 100% by the Chinese could not sustain the financial burden that the junta placed on Thailand.

So I wouldn't guess "almost certainly" lead to economic growth, nor "likely."

More like "perhaps."

 

Which is a big handicap being forced upon all subsequent elected governments that will have minimal, if any, ability to amend or terminate should the junta's infrastructure projects fall within the junta's 20-year national strategy and reform plan mandated by the 2017 Constitution.

 

If you're curious, here's something to ponder:

"A big push in infrastructure investment may entail trade-offs and distortions that could substantially reduce the net effect on growth" https://siteresources.worldbank.org/DEC/Resources/84797-1154354760266/2807421-1288872844438/7530108-1313070714827/GDP_Growth.pdf