Your Predictions on Living in Thailand 10 Years from Now

[Hummin]

52 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Yes I am a long term expat.

 

I am not suggesting that expats are driving up prices, I am merely responding to your statement when you said it can't continue like this, yes it can continue and it will. Your 49% is in a building that is shared with wealthy Thai people, neither you, not they are average in terms of wealth or income, neither is your building typical of the Thai housing market (assuming your talking about the 120k you mentioned).. So will there be housing market crash in Thailand, don't be silly, not when the average price is already so very low. Will your condo's get more expensive, yes they will. Will some elements of the housing market crash, probably, the top end is at risk.

Some adjustments will happen in our type of segment, no doubt about it. I guess we just have to wait and see? I will buy my condomenium because of improving my lifestyle, not for investment. 

[janclaes47]

2 hours ago, Hummin said:

the next tax heaven for expats will be Partugal,

 

Tax heaven in the EU?

 

2 hours ago, Hummin said:

property will fall like Spain experienced in 2008. Still not recover yet from that one! 

 

Did you ever check current property prices in Spain? Compared Thailand is dirt cheap.

[lvr181]

A 'colony' of China? Don't think many farang will want to be living here then.

[Krataiboy]

The junta will be explaining another delay in holding a general election.

[Rockhopper]

I'll be dead.

[Dmaxdan]

Well I'm quietly confident that by 2028 I will be getting 80 baht to the Pound (Sterling) so I will be holding folding and living the life of Riley. 

[freebyrd]

33 minutes ago, puffy said:

Rubbish, most of them will be dead.

And newbies will most certainly have taken their place

Edited April 13, 2018 by freebyrd

[cyril sneer]

7 hours ago, Old Croc said:

Thailand will be a radioactive wasteland like the rest of the planet.

 

even if it does it will still be a far more attractive destination than Merkel's Europe

 

[puffy]

3 minutes ago, freebyrd said:

And newbies will most certainly have taken their place

As we all know, newbies opinions are not valid, you have to have a certain number of posts to have a valid opinion.

Until that number you are not even considered a human being.

Also maybe the newbies can one day stop the circle of hate.

[stropper]

8 hours ago, kevvy said:

All the haters will be still posting on Thai Visa

ya you definately got that right, in ten years the whinging poms will be gone as they will not be able to afford it here, is happening now, no uk pension increases, as will be aussies as they will have to wait to 70, for a pension, to old then to move, most younger ferangs will not live here long term as they will have no money, no well paying jobs or security here for them and the price of every thing in thailand is on the up, personately i have set myself up very well on my farm and i can only see my thai family getting richer and stronger, no one in my family drinks ,smokes or gambles, except me, so i could be the only problem

[geriatrickid]

Surprised that there is no mention of  two constant visitors;

1. Environmental change: The increased water use by countries upstream from Thailand, combined with the  destruction of aquifiers will negatively impact agriculture and Thailand's ability to feed itself. Rising sea levels will cause havoc in coastal cities and Bangkok.  More extreme weather will  hurt agriculture.

 

2. Disease: The impact of  antibiotic resistant bacteria and  new variations of viruses will devastate the population. We will return to an era when there were no antibiotics. The  long term use of the  pesticides and herbicides and antibiotics in agriculture and  factory farming will take its toll.

 

I will remain a hansum man and will still be the youngest person in the bar in Hua Hin.  :)

[gamini]

8 hours ago, kevvy said:

All the haters will be still posting on Thai Visa

I would also call them losers

[gamini]

After Brexit the pound will go down to about 29 baht.

[stropper]

3 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

Surprised that there is no mention of  two constant visitors;

1. Environmental change: The increased water use by countries upstream from Thailand, combined with the  destruction of aquifiers will negatively impact agriculture and Thailand's ability to feed itself. Rising sea levels will cause havoc in coastal cities and Bangkok.  More extreme weather will  hurt agriculture.

 

2. Disease: The impact of  antibiotic resistant bacteria and  new variations of viruses will devastate the population. We will return to an era when there were no antibiotics. The  long term use of the  pesticides and herbicides and antibiotics in agriculture and  factory farming will take its toll.

 

I will remain a hansum man and will still be the youngest person in the bar in Hua Hin.  :)

my god , your starting whinging and full of negitivity all ready, must be a young pom!

[stropper]

1 minute ago, gamini said:

After Brexit the pound will go down to about 29 baht.

one can only hope!

[NoshowJones]

10 hours ago, observer90210 said:

What in 10 years ?....let's see.....no more 60 or 90 day visa reporting, but rather a daily reporting for expats and retirees ?!!!!!!

They would never have the staff to deal with that, so I will just take that as a light hearted comment, but talking about retirees here, Thailand will never do anything to affect them in a positive way. 

[Sheryl]

Many chnages cannot be predicted, many htings could go a variety of ways

 

But barring some drastic upheaval/disruption I expect:

 

- continued Chinese domination of the country

- continued rise in cost of living overall

-continued rise in cost of medical care and insurance premiums

 

The last is also my greatest concern as I expect it is for most older people - don't want to end up in a situation where I'm on fixed income, no longer able to work, and cannto really afford to live here

[IamRoach]

Not sure

8 hours ago, mstevens said:

- The cost of living in Thailand (particularly in Bangkok) will be significantly higher due to inflation running at a higher rate than the West and the baht increasing in value against all major currencies.  Thailand will not be the bargain it once was.  Central Bangkok rents and the general cost of living will push many expats out in to the suburbs and expats living in central Bangkok will be those with money / professional expat positions / those who purchased property back when prices were much more reasonable.

Plausible points however I don't agree with your first point. In my opinion the oligarch elites will be pushing too hard thinking about the short term and blow up their own economy and cause a real estate crash. Ever increasing household debt will increase and banks will stop providing loans for people without strict requirements due to too many people defaulting on their loans for real estate, cars and other purchases. The only way for this to be avoided is more income and asset equality however with the current military government they are doing their best to avoid any improvement for 90% of the population.

The rich are becoming ever increasing too greedy with rental prices pushing out people in the restaurant and entertainment business. More people will shut down due to unable to make enough to cover their costs (mainly rental as wages will remain low) with more empty commercial and residential real estate becoming vacant. The wealthy will try to keep up this fake market as they can afford to keep these spaces vacant and not drop down on their rental yields as it lowers the value of the property. People will catch on to this and refuse to pay the ridiculous prices as supply vastly outweighs demand which will be ever increasing as more units come on the market while the older ones remain empty.

[NoshowJones]

9 hours ago, Megasin1 said:

there will be no ex pats in 10 years time, the current bunch will have fallen off their balconies or just died from dehydration whilst constantly reporting and the Chinese just don't want us there as anything but walking atm tourists, so they will gradually phase out everything except the tourist visa....Thai ruk Thai (providing you are the Chinese descended ruling class)

There will always be ex pats here for the foreseeable future, as many Thai families depend on them, maybe will gradually fade out in about twenty years. Thailand authorities will always be against us as they do not want us here, they only want our money.

[IamRoach]

2 hours ago, faraday said:

The election, promised next February, will be in 2029.

 

Unless there is a revolution before that time. In my opinion they won't t be able to hold on to power for that long especially with how things are going currently.

[smotherb]

Most of the same bar girls will still be working. The younger ones will be available online pre-paid and delivered to your door.  Those girls who hit the farang jackpot will have run their farangs into the poor house and returned to the bars to find another. Even the young farangs will be pot-bellied and bald so as to attract the best ladies. A new time-share visa will be available for an exorbitant fee which provides both dwelling and receptacle for a specified period of time.

[HLover]

3 minutes ago, IamRoach said:

Unless there is a revolution before that time. In my opinion they won't t be able to hold on to power for that long especially with how things are going currently.

If a new cell phone game is invented, all bets are off.

[IamRoach]

6 minutes ago, possum1931 said:

There will always be ex pats here for the foreseeable future, as many Thai families depend on them, maybe will gradually fade out in about twenty years. Thailand authorities will always be against us as they do not want us here, they only want our money.

No doubt about that however in my opinion one of the main reasons will be because neighbouring SEA countries will become more livable for expats with more opportunities becoming available. Expats will be more spread out rather than being centralized in the same locations.

[NoshowJones]

6 minutes ago, smotherb said:

Most of the same bar girls will still be working. The younger ones will be available online pre-paid and delivered to your door.  Those girls who hit the farang jackpot will have run their farangs into the poor house and returned to the bars to find another. Even the young farangs will be pot-bellied and bald so as to attract the best ladies. A new time-share visa will be available for an exorbitant fee which provides both dwelling and receptacle for a specified period of time.

and more tattoo parlours so that these fatbellied young farangs can deform themselves even further.

[ChidlomDweller]

24 minutes ago, IamRoach said:

Unless there is a revolution before that time. In my opinion they won't t be able to hold on to power for that long especially with how things are going currently.

It's definitely possible, especially in this information age.  On the other hand I'm not sure it will happen because you need the critical mass first, the poor are dispersed far outside Bangkok (although many are in Bangkok too), and there's the whole repression and indoctrination system keeping them cowed.  

 

Came across this clip recently and had to think of Thailand:

 

[champers]

I think there will be more investment coming from Western countries; USA in particular; to offset greater Chinese influence in the area. Thailand has always been smart at playing both sides off against the other. They welcome Chinese money but don't want Communism. The Thai military will still hold the trump card in political matters.

I expect infrastructure improvements, funded and managed by foreign companies.

 

[Hummin]

59 minutes ago, stropper said:

ya you definately got that right, personately i have set myself up very well on their farm and i can only see my thai family getting richer and stronger, 

Fixed that for you ;-)

[StayinThailand2much]

Politics: no major change, with populists emptying out state coffers, at the same time filling their own pockets. Followed by a military coup every 8-10 years. Foreign policy will be adjusted to follow PRC example.

 

Socially: 1-3% getting mega-rich, sending their kids to elite schools abroad, taking care of themselves in luxurious, spa-like hospitals. Middle class will shrink, following world-wide trends. The poor will make up a larger percentage of society, with living costs, e.g. housing and education, skyrocketing. While currently 10%  of Thais live below the poverty line, in 2028 the number will be closer to 20%. Healthcare costs and education fees will be unbearable for most families, so that both, health and educational levels will suffer. Living costs in general, esp. in Bangkok, will catch up to levels seen in Hong Kong today. Average salaries won't be able to catch up with rising living costs. Average salary for Thai uni grads in 2028: 70,000 baht, average salary for foreign experts: 80,000 baht (foreign teachers: 20,000 baht, with only few, international, schools paying 30,000 baht.) Average rent of studio apartment in Bangkok (20 sqm, unfurnished): 25,000 baht. Transportation: a 200-metre moto taxi ride will cost 150-400 baht, depending on location. A trip on the BTS or MRT will cost between 50 and 200 baht. Both will be overcrowded all day.

 

Immigration: in addition to a large number of legal and illegal immigrants from neighbouring countries, there will be a large number of illegal immigrants from Africa, the Middle East, and China, of which only the latter ones will be tolerated, while the others will be fined (up to 500,000 baht) and deported. The Chinese population in Thailand (ethnic Chinese and immigrants) will have grown to 12-13 million. Office jobs in Bangkok and other cities will have been taken over by Chinese immigrants, while most Thai nationals will be forced to return to family homes 'upcountry' to avoid unemployment in the cities. English, as the language of business with the world, will have been replaced by Mandarin. Currency exchange rates: 1US$ = 17THB, 1GBP = 25THB, 1 EUR = 22THB, 1RMB = 6THB.

 

Tourism: In 2028, 90 million of the 120 million foreign tourists will come from China, with the remainder arriving from India, Pakistan, Russia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Vietnam, and other countries. The average room in Bangkok will cost 9,000 baht/night (Khao Sarn: 4,000 baht). The Chinese yuan will be accepted currency in all major towns in Thailand. Most coral reefs and beaches will either be destroyed or covered in mounds of rubbish. A growing number of historical sites and temples will be defaced by graffiti, despite of fines of up to 10 million baht. The smuggling out of ancient Buddha and other artifacts will be a big problem. The percentage of tourists from The Americas, Europe, and Australasia will have fallen to 5-7%

 

Visas: Chinese nationals will have no difficulty procuring 10-year tourist- or residency visas. Nationals of other countries, to apply for a 2-month tourist visa, will have to provide proof of a regular income of 6,000 US dollars, 100,000 US dollars in a bank, or 2 million baht in a fixed-deposit account in Thailand. There will be a limit of one, in exceptional circumstances, two tourist visas in a calendar year (except PRC passport holders). Single tourist visas will cost 5,000 baht.

 

 

 

 

 

  

Edited April 13, 2018 by StayinThailand2much

[ChidlomDweller]

Adding to the economic picture in the above post, there's the whole automation revolution coming up.  This will obviously keep taking jobs in manufacturing, but also increasingly office and service jobs.  Waiters?  Replace 80% of them with a tablet ordering system.  I read recently about a Zara concept store where retail employees are replaced by a computer ordering sytem inside the store.  Bank branches will keep on closing and even a lot of business of banks will shift to financial platforms like online payment systems.  Basically anything that's repetitive, including many services, can be done cheaper and often better by a machine.  The government has the right idea with their 4.0 talk (it's a global buzzword that they just stole to sound smart) but we all know it's just empty rethoric and Thailand won't be able to escape it.

Edited April 13, 2018 by ChidlomDweller

[Sprigger]

We’ll all have died of the Black Death or some other plague from the open sewers they call the seaside, unable to get treatment because of the lying  rip off hospital prices.