Most Thais Think Economy Bad, Getting Worse

[OmarZaid]

17 hours ago, lovelomsak said:

Of course the people think the economy is doing poorly. They are now middle class. They want more money to pay off their new truck sooner,more money to go out to restaurants,more money for new house,fashion clothes. etc.If they lived like they did 20 years ago they would have plenty. Middle class never have enough. When they can afford Toyota they move up to Benz and complain it is hard to make ends meet.

  

BRAVO

[peperobi]

Hey peoples, why do you think like that? The PM Gen. Prayut inform you repeatedly about the increment of the Tai economy, this year will be between 4 and 5 %. ?

[JAG]

55 minutes ago, impulse said:

Most people understandably confuse "the economy" with my personal finances, especially debt. 

 

Even if the economy is booming, personal debt can be pretty oppressive when wages don't keep up with inflation and expectations.  Especially when over 100% of the growth in GDP is going to a small minority of the population.

 

If debt is unsustainable, leaves no money for consumer spending, and growth and increased income is concentrated in the hands of a very small, already very rich (sufficiently so?) section of the population is that not going to affect the economy? 

 

With the usual caveat that I am no financial expert...

[simoh1490]

4 minutes ago, Lupatria said:

Spidermike posted: "Most Thais have no education on economics..."

That raises the question, when and where did the big brass brothers, and buddies in their fan club educate in economics?

As long as the intentional poorly educated masses are deprived of their right to vote for qualified representatives from the people they can trust, a bunch of unusual wealthy soldiers and their families , who don't have to care about price hikes of 20 baht, will run the show.  

The junta doesn't run the economy, BOT is the main steward of its performance and they are independent. Government acts on recommendations and findings of the central bank, the government doesn't just arbitrarily do "stuff" to make it better or worse.

Edited June 7, 2018 by simoh1490

[jayboy]

Yeah, sure, okay, whatever. Any further nonsense posts from you will just be ignored. I really don't have the interest in sparring with your insulting BS.

Stop whinging,Start reading.


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[Orton Rd]

Has electricity gone up per unit? everyone on our moobaan has got much higher bills this month, we were away for a week and our was higher than normal. They don't seem to have the price per unit on the bills these days

[The Deerhunter]

17 hours ago, lovelomsak said:

Of course the people think the economy is doing poorly. They are now middle class. They want more money to pay off their new truck sooner,more money to go out to restaurants,more money for new house,fashion clothes. etc.If they lived like they did 20 years ago they would have plenty. Middle class never have enough. When they can afford Toyota they move up to Benz and complain it is hard to make ends meet.

  

Very common dynamic.  I read that in New Zealand families with 100,000NZD  or more are crying "cannot make ends meet".  If they hadn't moved to a nicer house and 2 new cars to match they would be fine.  The upwardly mobile middle class always has this problem.  If you only talk to them the sky is always falling.  In Thailand the new factories are still going up like mushrooms and never enough staff.  The Thai economy would reverse if they did not have guest workers from Burma and Cambodia.

 

[simoh1490]

Just now, Orton Rd said:

Has electricity gone up per unit? everyone on our moobaan has got much higher bills this month, we were away for a week and our was higher than normal. They don't seem to have the price per unit on the bills these days

no, but people have been burning more electric because it's been very hot.

[JAG]

9 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

The junta doesn't run the economy, BOT is the main steward of its performance and they independent. Government acts on recommendations and findings of the central bank, the government doesn't just arbitrarily do "stuff" to make it better or worse.

I'm sorry but the Government is very much"arbitrarily doing stuff" which affects the economy. They are very proactively investing, and working hard to coral private investment into, a number of government (junta) sponsored and inevitably government (junta) run projects. They are doing so without any democratic oversight, effectively by decree.

These projects are overwhelmingly concentrated in areas which provide such popular support as the government (junta) enjoys. They are projects that are overwhelmingly significant because they will benefit the government (junta) various support bases.

Edited June 7, 2018 by JAG

[Lupatria]

5 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

The junta doesn't run the economy, BOT is the main steward of its performance and they are independent. Government acts on recommendations and findings of the central bank, the government doesn't just arbitrarily do "stuff" to make it better or worse.

I have my doubts about that part.

[mfd101]

A modern or even semi-modern economy of 70 million people is hugely complex. All sorts of structural & incidental changes are going on simultaneously, many positive, some negative. Anyone who thinks that a few simplistic comments can summarize it all intelligently is kidding themselves. For example:

(1) The baht is strong. And why is that? Because the economy is strong ie the measured economy is growing at a robust pace [though in Thailand the measured & measurable economy is no doubt a smaller sub-set than in most Western economies - other than Italy & Greece, no doubt!]. Is the strong baht harming exports? Well, given the Thai balance of trade - hugely positive, with very large foreign exchange holdings - clearly not.

(2) The structural changes happening are massive - aging population, 1940s agriculture suffering, service industries growing rapidly, uneducated & undereducated population struggling to adapt ... Just like The West of the 1950s-70s and it continues today, except off a higher base. And, just like everywhere else, some people benefit by being adaptable & seizing opportunities, many people struggle & survive more or less well, and many sit still hoping it'll all just go away.

 

For those of us old enough to have a memory and still able to use our brains, it's a fascinating process to watch. And, in my case, to be part of as my Thai family displays all the above characteristics (though mostly of the neutral-to-negative type). Trying to help them is difficult. Throwing money helps, but only shortterm. Just like welfare everywhere ...

[simoh1490]

1 minute ago, JAG said:

I'm sorry but the Government is very much"arbitrarily doing stuff" which affects the economy. They are very proactively investing, and working hard to coral private investment into, a number of government (junta) sponsored and inevitably run projects.

The subject was skills in economics, my point is that BOT has plenty such skills regardless of whether government members do or do not. The government, this one or any other, doesn't make economic moves arbitrarily and independently of expert advice, typically from BOT. The PM doesn't wake up one morning and decide to invest US20 bill. in this or that, investment in infrastructure, military spending, economic stimulation programs are things that are budgeted, assessed, consulted on, forecasted etc etc, if you think it works any differently you are mistaken.

[blazes]

17 hours ago, jayboy said:

Sorry to hear about your sister in law.But it probably has less to do with the strength of the Baht than an noncompetitive overall cost structure, a huge problem in the Thai textile industry.

 

A "noncompetitive overall cost structure"?  Would that be referring to greedy profiteers or to those pesky workers demanding ever higher pay above minimum wage?

[hansnl]

17 hours ago, jayboy said:

Sorry to hear about your sister in law.But it probably has less to do with the strength of the Baht than an noncompetitive overall cost structure, a huge problem in the Thai textile industry.

The biggest cost factor in the economy, as I seem to understand, are transport costs.

That is exactly why the existing government is doing something about it with road and rail works.

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, hansnl said:

The biggest cost factor in the economy, as I seem to understand, are transport costs.

That is exactly why the existing government is doing something about it with road and rail works.

FWIW I think those are infrastructure projects that represent government fiscal stimulus, I don't think they are trying primarily to solve a transportation cost issue although I'm happy to be corrected.

[heybuz]

[heybuz]

Just now, heybuz said:

This is what Thais think

[yellowboat]

17 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Where you hear those complaints?  Some of the 1000 bars or massage shops in Pattaya?  "Slow, no customer"...

I am hearing/seeing just the opposite at many businesses.  Growth is at a five year high, people are coming here in droves, and the economy is doing well.

Most Thais have no education on economics and would have no clue what the "economy" is.  But, people love to wallow in negativity and sadness for themselves in some odd way it makes them feel empowered.

There are two economies in Thailand.  One for the rich and one for the poor.  Those who are favored by the golden circle or the government.   Compare China or Vietnam where the middle class is having its ranks add to as opposed to what happens in Thailand.  The Bangkok bubble is not indicative of the country as a whole.  Like the movie mogul said:  If one person says you look sick, you can ignore it, but when two more say the same thing, go home and go to bed.  The perception for the uneducated is the reality in Thailand.  The do not participate in the success of the auto, chip packaging industries.  They make something from tourism and food production, but little of the big money trickles down. 

[jayboy]

13 minutes ago, blazes said:

 

A "noncompetitive overall cost structure"?  Would that be referring to greedy profiteers or to those pesky workers demanding ever higher pay above minimum wage?

Neither.It would be - as regards relatively low added value industries like textiles - the competition from countries with lower cost structure like Vietnam, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.Equally it would be Thailand's rather poor record recently (for many decades it was remarkably good) in adding value by moving to a higher industrial level.That speaks to weak strategic planning and a relatively poor education system.

[Sydebolle]

This country is doomed. The tourist arrival figures say absolutely NOTHING about the spending; important is how much money is spent on what kind of products (domestic/imported, traded/crafted) etc. Hotels sell their half empty rooms cheaper by the day while the little man on the road has simply not understood that tourists can be cheated but over time will learn and avoid.
Any supermarket is availing the same goods at very comparable prices; maybe there are just too many of those "super centers". Go and have a look at the fresh meat section in most supermarkets (Foodland and Villa excluded) - it makes you a vegetarian if you see Somchai pouring a new sack of chicken over the few old chicken pieces swimming in watery blood and the smell is comparable to what some hospitals have in the cellar. 

The Thai Baht is far too strong and I have my own theory about that; but there is a hefty comparison to 1997 in the making which made some selected few people very, very, very, very rich. Why not buy USD at B 23, let the currency go down the hallygally and bring the USD back and get B56 for it. Khon Thai will be paying for the difference by exploding pricing on stable food like rice or eggs. 

Populistic promises by former governments came in very expensive too; the minimum wage increase of 50% meant, that fried rice and noodles at the street side went up by a similar percentage, the education issue has been addressed for decades without any improvement on the entire front.

Lets wait for the proper crisis and the bumpy ride of Thailand towards the 21st century - it will hurt big time and the average Joe had, has and will have no clue why and what really happened. And no, the oligarch crooks will go untouched - as always. 

[blazes]

18 hours ago, jayboy said:

You are talking rubbish and the one thing you claim to know for sure you do in fact not know.Inflation is only slightly higher at just over 1%, slightly more than the expected rate of about 0.85%.The information on which this is based is not manipulated by what you ignorantly call "goons".In fact Thailand has a longstanding history of producing reliable and excellent economic and financial data and is well served by able officials in the responsible ministries and the Bank of Thailand.Naturally in the basket of items used to track inflation some items will increase more than others.You mention the "tourist industry", a euphemism no doubt for bars and similar places frequented by sex tourists and resident "expats".If the girls and boys are hiking their prices it doesn't really matter and in any case is irrelevant to the national inflation position.

 

"Working girls" contribute nothing to GDP then?

[Peterw42]

19 hours ago, webfact said:

Few shoppers Tuesday at the Or Tor Kor Market in Bangkok's Chatuchak district.

Seems an odd photo to show the economy is bad, I count 8 shoppers and 2 shopkeepers, at least 1 shopper has bought something, I would presume the others are there to shop as well.

[theguyfromanotherforum]

3 hours ago, Credo said:

I can't honestly dispute the figures, or the observations by many posters and the people they know, but I can say that I think the expectations of Thais have changed and that makes life more expensive.   

 

Some years ago, they were less concerned about medical care now they are (and they are getting older).   A lot of families are smaller and caring for ageing relatives is more of a burden.   I know many Thais who were quite satisfied to not own a house, or a condo, but now more want one.   The same with vehicles.   Where you once saw 10-15 people in the back of a pickup, now you see more people wanting private transport.

 

Thais have moved from the simple country life to a more sophisticated urban life and with it comes increased stress and costs.   Many of those costs are hidden.

 

 

Great post.

 

I am sure Thailand economy is doing just fine, but this does not reflected on average people unless you are a gangster.

 

I think my wife is grossly underpaid at 45k a month working for one of the biggest companies in Thailand.

 

Nothing sickens me more than some old fatso here lecturing about needs and wants. Why shouldn't the average Thai who bothered to get education expect to have a condo/house/car? Should the old fatso here who won the birth lottery of being born in some no name Western country give up his already bloated Western pension that he's not even spending in his own country? Oh, but I worked hard for it is old fatso reply. So are Thais. Most middle class Thais that take the bus every day which old fatso is unable to see from his high horse On Nutterz condo are also working very hard. Sorry, but even being a cashier in this country at 7/11 is a very tiring job. Just look at the amount of people they have to serve every day. Why should they be only paid 300 bucks a month in the city that costs as much as Toronto to purchase a condo.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 7, 2018 by theguyfromanotherforum

[Baerboxer]

19 hours ago, lovelomsak said:

Of course the people think the economy is doing poorly. They are now middle class. They want more money to pay off their new truck sooner,more money to go out to restaurants,more money for new house,fashion clothes. etc.If they lived like they did 20 years ago they would have plenty. Middle class never have enough. When they can afford Toyota they move up to Benz and complain it is hard to make ends meet.

  

 

Every time I go to the malls, the restaurants seem more busier, the queues longer. And more people seem to be doing more shopping.

 

But the cost of a lot of foods, in supermarkets and fresh markets and their food courts has risen a lot over the last few years. It's the poor, working class who will feel the pinch. Those who are now middle class extend their credit and borrowings - but that bubble can easily burst.

 

The rich elite, hiso, upper class, business owners, whatever you want to call them, are the ones whose wealth is growing nicely.

 

The measure of wealth distribution and growth/decrease in wealth in real terms in different sectors of society would be interesting. 

[Borzandy]

19 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Where you hear those complaints?  Some of the 1000 bars or massage shops in Pattaya?  "Slow, no customer"...

I am hearing/seeing just the opposite at many businesses.  Growth is at a five year high, people are coming here in droves, and the economy is doing well.

Most Thais have no education on economics and would have no clue what the "economy" is.  But, people love to wallow in negativity and sadness for themselves in some odd way it makes them feel empowered.

 

Your own education on economy should be reviewed.

[simoh1490]

41 minutes ago, blazes said:

 

"Working girls" contribute nothing to GDP then?

Not really since it's not taxed or even measured.

[KiwiKiwi]

19 hours ago, BobBKK said:

It's true most Thais are deeply unhappy with prices, business and all that jazz but this is what you get when you try to run things like an Army camp.

 

A population gets the government it deserves - always. If you accept coups, you have to accept soldiers playing at managing the country. No point complaining about the consequences of your own actions or inaction.

 

To be candid, I have limited sympathy, you want change? Get off bums and make change.

 

 

[bkk6060]

8 minutes ago, Borzandy said:

Your own education on economy should be reviewed.

Brilliant expertise and contibution to the thread.

Thanks!:)

[SupermarineS6B]

Take a walk from Suk soi 4 right up to Onnut and tell me how good the business in Bangkok is. Talk about killing the goose that lays the golden eggs, but the really sad part is all those people now out of work all because of what ? some delusional racist tin pot pongo...... In all my years in Thailand i've never heard Thais openly voice their disgust of their own people, but every night home in the taxi i'm hearing the same conversation over and over....... "No business, no people, things we're better before this lot got in"...... Blah blah blah........ trouble is, they're right..... and this can't last........ Next chancer please !  

Edited June 7, 2018 by SupermarineS6B

[Eric Loh]

We are thinking too much. The survey said it all. Economy getting worse for the man on the streets not the fat cats. If the economy is doing well for all, there will be no protests for government to intervene and provide assistance. Common sense prevail that the minimum wage is just not enough to meet basic needs.