SURVEY: Is a Trade War Looming?

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Yes!!!

Trump, and the hapless Larry Kudlow, forget one little thing: the dollar!

 

First, as the emitter of the reserve currency, the US is somehow constrained to run a trade deficit (Triffin dilemma).

Otherwise, how would a country such as Japan, for example, pay for its oil imports? (Yen not accepted).

 

Then, what are the large creditor countries (China, Japan, Middle East) doing with their trade surplus in dollars?

Well, they buy US bonds, a.k.a. debt, by the hundreds of billions!

In other words, they finance the US budget deficit and by extension the US army...and the US government in Washington, including Donald's paycheck!

If, as asked by the Golden Golem of Greatness, the deficit with China was reduced by 200 billion dollars, this money wouldn't be available for buying US bonds.

So, who would buy them?

 

Having said that, I am not yet convinced that we are heading for a trade war, because to start a war, you need at least two adversaries, and for the time being no one seems to be much interested in entering in such a conflict.

A real, hot, war on the other hand appears more likely since there are many who can't wait to show their muscles...

Golden Golem of Greatness

 

Fabulous!

[Grouse]

Who is NATO for?

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty

 

If Trump is so pissed at RoW, stay home

[Nice Boyd]

10 hours ago, FreddieRoyle said:

I didn't see the "it will have a positive impact" option?

 

 On the other thread it was staggering to read Canada imposed a 270% on US dairy imports. 270%!!! The USA has been played like a fool for decades. The new sheriff in town will balance things up - fair for all - not just let foreign nations profit from our prior weak leadership.

 

 So yes, trade war = will result in fair trade = a good thing.

The New Sheriff is a Moron as most of his Kool aid drinking cronies

[Nice Boyd]

55 minutes ago, BuaBS said:

No Trump supporters left on here ? You mean TV-forum ?

Well I think Trump is trying to do a good job . I'm hoping for a good trade war , but like anything these days , it's a lot of talk in the media , but in the end not much will happen or change.

 

Good job, what world do you live in Fantasy, or just the downfall of the USA, is your only interest

[impulse]

4 hours ago, Jingthing said:

The trade war "trump" is fomenting will hurt many of his own base voters the most. Yet, they will like it. Because it's from the man they blindly worship. Yes, he's that good of a propagandist. He has amazing talent as a con man. 

 

There's been a trade war going on for 20+ years, and the USA has been getting our clock cleaned by trade partners who will sign anything, and then violate whatever they want. 

 

Sure, someone's going to get hurt when there are adjustments.  Someone got hurt in the adjustment to the current status quo.  But I look at a 600+ billion deficit, and I can't really get too bent out of shape if sorghum farmers have to grow something else, or sell their sorghum to the countries that China will be displacing when they shop elsewhere for sorghum, taking Venezuelan sorghum off the market (full disclosure, I don't know what Venezuela exports, except they used to export oil.).  Getting a better deal on the other 590+ billion dollars (and filched technology) will dwarf the effect on sorghum.

 

[sirineou]

These are all distractions  by Trump to remove attention from the Muller investigation and bolster his support among his base. He knows that most people know litle about international trade and rather blame their predicament on others than themselves.

Nowhere in this argument have we heard Trump say anything about balance of payments.

The average tariffs between the US, EU and Canada are about 3%, Trump knows this, the only ones who don;t know it are the simple uneducated on the subject Americans who are being played by Trump.

The Soviet Union failed because of the military cost  of the cold war, And the US will also fall because of its military adventurism.

     Cost of Iraq war 2,4 TRILLION usd !!!!

Think Of how much competitive the US would be if these funds were invested in infrastructure, health care , education,  fully funding pensions. 

Yes I hear you,   

 you will say but we would not have "liberated Iraq" LOL, How about liberating ourselves.!!!

 

 

[IAMHERE]

46 minutes ago, Nice Boyd said:

The New Sheriff is a Moron as most of his Kool aid drinking cronies

Good then, shouldn't be all that difficult to beat in a trade war. No fear, no problem.

[sirineou]

28 minutes ago, IAMHERE said:

Good then, shouldn't be all that difficult to beat in a trade war. No fear, no problem.

When monkeys start  throwing poop, everyone gets dirty. 

[tomacht8]

The US like wars.
It's good for there own military industry.
But in a trade war, it will be the first time that they will have victims on their own soil.

[nervona81732]

Hey there all you arm chair philosophers America is tired of supporting the world with the tax payers money that is given to foreign governments. Tired of paying everyones share of UN, Climate change ( BS ) and countries that don't give a rip. That goes for all of you arm chair politicians who think The Donald J Trump is off the subject , he is not. He is carrying out the the will of the American people. Period! All you non Americans you feel you have the right to command OUR politics? Think again the wisest thing to do is to stay informed and let American citizens work it out. 

  I did not vote, after what I saw ( liberal Democrats ) WHAT THEY WERE TRYING TO DO ( throw the election ) blatantly to the rule of law of our constitution I will NEVER go that way again as I was all my life. The political system globally is broken. Since the Donald has been in office he has fulfilled many of his campaign promises that benefit Americans and he would be that much farther ahead if the witch funded by George soros and brain washed slaves hadn't been and are still as we speak , involved.

Get ready you doubting THOMAS'S. The hammer is coming down. You want to support the globalist bankers be my guest. I still say you have NO clue.

  Thank you for allowing me to rant.

 

Cheers

[Rarebear]

5 hours ago, Jeffrey346 said:

Can't wait till Trump finds out about Thailand's 300% import and VAT added to US car imports 

What cars does the USA import to Thailand?

[nervona81732]

ZIP.

[Rarebear]

1 hour ago, tomacht8 said:

The US like wars.
It's good for there own military industry.
But in a trade war, it will be the first time that they will have victims on their own soil.

I believe the Revolutionary war and Civil war were both trade wars.  You were probably misled that the Revolutionary war was about independence and the Civil war about slavery.  Investigate further and you will discover the truth.   

[Scott]

Off-topic posts and replies removed.  

[impulse]

12 hours ago, Rarebear said:

17 hours ago, Jeffrey346 said:

Can't wait till Trump finds out about Thailand's 300% import and VAT added to US car imports 

What cars does the USA import to Thailand?

 

That's kind of the point.  You don't figure there's a market for Corvettes at 1/4 the price of a Lambo?    Or full sized F150's instead of the tiny boxes they sell as pickup trucks?  But not at such a huge markup.

 

[markwhite]

On 6/10/2018 at 7:42 AM, FreddieRoyle said:

 On the other thread it was staggering to read Canada imposed a 270% on US dairy imports. 270%!!! The USA has been played like a fool for decades.

 

A quote from elsewhere so the "you" is not aimed at the OP:

 

"Then I suppose you also don't know that the US provides over $22 billion a year in direct subsidies to US dairy producers, accounting for over 40% of all dairy profits?

That's right -- American taxpayers are paying for >40% of all dairy production in the US. That has lead to a significant oversupply of milk and cheese products which the US can't sell domestically, so they want to be able to dump it on other countries well below market value (again -- it's government subsidized).

That is why Canada has a tariff on US dairy products. Canada doesn't subsidize its dairy industry at all. The tariffs came into effect because the US insists on subsidizing its dairy industry with more US tax dollars than the entire Canadian dairy industry is worth [dairyinfo.gc.ca]."

 

Which seems to be what Trump accuses other countries of doing (steel from China as a particular example) - government subsidization to the point of flooding the market with cheaper goods and selling them to other countries. Either that's okay and fair game, or it's not. It can't be okay when you do it but not okay when others do it. That would be hypocritical.

 

The truth is likely that in some ways the US is getting screwed and in other ways it's doing the screwing. The truth is being clouded by the selective use of particular statistics and figures in an attempt to score points instead of figuring out whether the system in its current state is the best thing for everyone.

 

 

[Athens]

19 hours ago, ToddinChonburi said:

810 billion trade deficit.  Merkel has screwed the EU and she is very worried.  Trump is exposing all the corruption. 

trade deficit only because US products too expencive , other countries have same import tax to the EU no problem

The US has decided on a low import tax....keeping US consumer  price low...this is not corruption.

Production cost are high in EU. But creativity and innovation are high too.

 

[pegman]

1 hour ago, markwhite said:

 

A quote from elsewhere so the "you" is not aimed at the OP:

 

"Then I suppose you also don't know that the US provides over $22 billion a year in direct subsidies to US dairy producers, accounting for over 40% of all dairy profits?

That's right -- American taxpayers are paying for >40% of all dairy production in the US. That has lead to a significant oversupply of milk and cheese products which the US can't sell domestically, so they want to be able to dump it on other countries well below market value (again -- it's government subsidized).

That is why Canada has a tariff on US dairy products. Canada doesn't subsidize its dairy industry at all. The tariffs came into effect because the US insists on subsidizing its dairy industry with more US tax dollars than the entire Canadian dairy industry is worth [dairyinfo.gc.ca]."

 

Which seems to be what Trump accuses other countries of doing (steel from China as a particular example) - government subsidization to the point of flooding the market with cheaper goods and selling them to other countries. Either that's okay and fair game, or it's not. It can't be okay when you do it but not okay when others do it. That would be hypocritical.

 

The truth is likely that in some ways the US is getting screwed and in other ways it's doing the screwing. The truth is being clouded by the selective use of particular statistics and figures in an attempt to score points instead of figuring out whether the system in its current state is the best thing for everyone.

 

 

Part of the problem is only half the story is given on American media. Guys like Kudlow continually lie to the public. Then go into government and continue the same lies. Jon Steward laid waste to him.

[Kieran00001]

On 6/10/2018 at 7:42 AM, FreddieRoyle said:

I didn't see the "it will have a positive impact" option?

 

 On the other thread it was staggering to read Canada imposed a 270% on US dairy imports. 270%!!! The USA has been played like a fool for decades. The new sheriff in town will balance things up - fair for all - not just let foreign nations profit from our prior weak leadership.

 

 So yes, trade war = will result in fair trade = a good thing.

 

Presumably you are also calling out the US on their restriction of Canadian dairy imports to 3% of domestic consumption.

[Jeffrey346]

17 hours ago, Rarebear said:

What cars does the USA import to Thailand?

There are a couple of Mustangs running around town here. But you can import any car you want @ 300%.    

[Rarebear]

3 minutes ago, Jeffrey346 said:

There are a couple of Mustangs running around town here. But you can import any car you want @ 300%.    

What new cars do US manufacturers import to Thailand?  (That was obvious but since you want to get pedantic.....)

[Rarebear]

3 hours ago, Athens said:

trade deficit only because US products too expencive , other countries have same import tax to the EU no problem

The US has decided on a low import tax....keeping US consumer  price low...this is not corruption.

Production cost are high in EU. But creativity and innovation are high too.

I believe the the USA admin thinks other countries subsidize products that are imported to the USA at below market cost and or steals USA intellectual products and forbids the USA from selling US products in their markets.  For example can Google operate in China?  Can Baido operate in the USA?

[thaibeachlovers]

On ‎6‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 8:00 AM, Kiwiken said:

I find it interesting that the US has applied tariffs now to NZ Steel and Aluminium exports to the USA. New Zealand levies no tariffs on any imported goods to NZ. So Donald Trump is a protectionist idiot. I doubt if We would retaliate against his silly tariffs but find laughable he can exempt Australia and not New Zealand.

New Zealand agriculture has always faced barriers when exporting to the USA. We have no subsidies for Farmers just we are damn competitive but still the USA puts up Barriers. Hypocrites!!!!! no other word to describe

Since when did NZ make steel for export? Why would the US need to import steel products all the way from NZ? What agricultural produce ( other than Kiwifruit ) would the US not source from within its own borders? It obviously doesn't need dairy products.

 

I thought all the aluminium made in NZ belonged to an Australian company. After the way NZ treated the US over nuclear ships, I'm surprised the US still considers NZ an ally, not that NZ is capable of providing any assistance militarily anymore.

I also thought the aluminium smelter was in danger of being closed down anyway. Bit pointless imposing tariffs on something that may not exist soon.

[Basil B]

25% tax on car imports...

 

OK what cars does the UK export to the USA?

 

Mainly upper range Rollers, Daimler's, Range Rovers, Land Rovers & Jags...

 

And the people who buy those cars which party do did they vote for???

[lannarebirth]

I don't think a trade war is looming but I do think a seasonal economic downturn is looming. They'll probably attribute it to a trade war because they always have to give a reason, however wrong it is. I expect a very chaotic Summer and Fall.

[Kiwiken]

4 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Since when did NZ make steel for export? Why would the US need to import steel products all the way from NZ? What agricultural produce ( other than Kiwifruit ) would the US not source from within its own borders? It obviously doesn't need dairy products.

 

I thought all the aluminium made in NZ belonged to an Australian company. After the way NZ treated the US over nuclear ships, I'm surprised the US still considers NZ an ally, not that NZ is capable of providing any assistance militarily anymore.

I also thought the aluminium smelter was in danger of being closed down anyway. Bit pointless imposing tariffs on something that may not exist soon.

Thanks for confirming what i just said

[pegman]

War's on. 

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-ivison-the-great-patriotic-trade-war-against-the-u-s-begins-on-canada-day

[Jingthing]

Canada is properly on top of the USA. Look at a map. Canada is the super ego, USA the ego, and Mexico the delicious id.

Sent from my Lenovo A7020a48 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[observer90210]

I am tempted to say that the Chinese have  already and craftily entered into a trade war much before Trump et al. Manipulating one's national currency to the rock bottom, highly subsidizing postal and cargo rates for exports and much more, are some of the many steps the Chinese government has quietly been taking behind the world's backs for more then a decade.

[bristolboy]

1 minute ago, observer90210 said:

I am tempted to say that the Chinese have  already and craftily entered into a trade war much before Trump et al. Manipulating one's national currency to the rock bottom, highly subsidizing postal and cargo rates for exports and much more, are some of the many steps the Chinese government has quietly been taking behind the world's backs for more then a decade.

Except of course that the currency manipulation has long since ceased. But you're right about China in that it has used blackmail trading access to the chinese market in exchange for access to western technology. So what did Trump do about ZTE? First he threatened to withdraw its access to US technology but now he's decided to save it. that sent quite a message. Maybe his way of saying thank you for the unusual speed with which China awards Ivanka her trademarks.