Put your cards on the table, EU makes last Brexit call to Britain

[Rally123]

4 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

I am all for democracy but, when the absolute best you have to offer after more than 2 years is to say 'trust me, it will be ok', I am afraid that that is simply not good enough by a long shot.

I am not offering anything. I never said 'trust me it will be ok' or has T May. Typical 'Remoaner'  in making up siht (anagram)

 

4 hours ago, sandyf said:

Like many others you are making the assumption that post brexit trade figures will remain unchanged

I never made any assumptions. You are making that up to suit your own agenda. Quit moaning and accept democracy, why don't ya?

[RuamRudy]

8 minutes ago, Rally123 said:

I am not offering anything. I never said 'trust me it will be ok' or has T May. Typical 'Remoaner'  in making up siht (anagram)

 

I thought it was obvious that the 'you' I was referring to was the collective 'you', but you are bang on the money - the collective you is offering absolutely nothing. 2 years down the line and all we have are a litany of lies and a tragic series of humiliations. 

[tebee]

This is the state of affairs you get when you let politicians lie with impunity ....

[bristolboy]

6 hours ago, Rally123 said:

Tebee we can all post figures until the cows come home but we can't be sure on them until we actually Brexit. 

 

 

 

https://www.westmonster.com/kawczynski-mp-no-deal-is-becoming-more-likely-and-its-a-good-option/

And you can drive a car into a wall and not be able to know exactly the extent of what your injuries will be. But believing there may not be any at all is ludicrous..

[Rally123]

1 minute ago, bristolboy said:

And you can drive a car into a wall and not be able to know exactly the extent of what your injuries will be. But believing there may not be any at all is ludicrous..

All depends on how fast you hit the wall at. That is why negotiations are taking place. To find out how to avoid injuries to both sides.

[bristolboy]

Just now, Rally123 said:

All depends on how fast you hit the wall at. That is why negotiations are taking place. To find out how to avoid injuries to both sides.

I know that negotiations have been taking place amongst the Tories. Not much evidence of it taking place between the UK and the rest of the EU.

And no, the negotiations aren't to find out how to avoid injuries. It's to mitigate the damage. The EU certainly doesn't believe that it won't be hurt. But it's obvious that whatever it suffers won't be as much as what the UK does.

[Rally123]

2 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Not much evidence of it taking place between the UK and the rest of the EU.

You don't watch the news much do you?

 

3 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

But it's obvious that whatever it suffers won't be as much as what the UK does.

Obvious? Can you show that to be true?

[bristolboy]

1 minute ago, Rally123 said:

You don't watch the news much do you?

 

Obvious? Can you show that to be true?

Real simple: 44 percent of the uk's exports go to the EU. Is there any EU country that sends 44 percent of it's exports to the UK? Any impact from the UK's leaving will be absorbed by a much larger aggregate economy than the UK's. So the pain will be more spread out.

Of course this won't happen if the UK realizes its fond wish of getting most of the benefits of membership without most of the obligations. What do you think that odds of that are?

[Spidey]

21 minutes ago, Rally123 said:

All depends on how fast you hit the wall at. That is why negotiations are taking place. To find out how to avoid injuries to both sides.

Good luck with that. There is no way to avoid major injuries.

 

Furthermore, statistics show that, in a car crash, the passenger is more likely to sustain injuries than the driver.

 

With the Brexit negotiations, the EU is firmly in the driving seat and we are just the passenger.

Edited July 20, 2018 by Spidey

[aright]

27 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Real simple: 44 percent of the uk's exports go to the EU. Is there any EU country that sends 44 percent of it's exports to the UK?  So the pain will be more spread out.

Of course this won't happen if the UK realizes its fond wish of getting most of the benefits of membership without most of the obligations. What do you think that odds of that are?

Is there any EU country that sends 44 percent of it's exports to the UK? So the pain will be more spread out.

 

You seem to be suggesting that individual countries won't care about the pain of loosing or paying more to access  an export market. Mercedes largest European export market is the UK . Presumably you feel loss or a reduction of sales of their largest European export market,as a result of Brexit is not important to them. French wine is in the same category. At the coal face every sale is important.    

[bristolboy]

44 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Real simple: 44 percent of the uk's exports go to the EU. Is there any EU country that sends 44 percent of it's exports to the UK? Any impact from the UK's leaving will be absorbed by a much larger aggregate economy than the UK's. So the pain will be more spread out.

Of course this won't happen if the UK realizes its fond wish of getting most of the benefits of membership without most of the obligations. What do you think that odds of that are?

 

3 minutes ago, aright said:

Is there any EU country that sends 44 percent of it's exports to the UK? So the pain will be more spread out.

 

You seem to be suggesting that individual countries won't care about the pain of loosing or paying more to access  an export market. Mercedes largest European export market is the UK . Presumably you feel loss or a reduction of sales of their largest European export market,as a result of Brexit is not important to them. French wine is in the same category. At the coal face every sale is important.    

Let me repeat what I wrote above:

Any impact from the UK's leaving will be absorbed by a much larger aggregate economy than the UK's. So the pain will be more spread out.

 

And here's a quote of mine from a slightly earlier post:

The EU certainly doesn't believe that it won't be hurt. But it's obvious that whatever it suffers won't be as much as what the UK does.

 

[tomacht8]

17 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

 

Let me repeat what I wrote above:

Any impact from the UK's leaving will be absorbed by a much larger aggregate economy than the UK's. So the pain will be more spread out.

 

And here's a quote of mine from a slightly earlier post:

The EU certainly doesn't believe that it won't be hurt. But it's obvious that whatever it suffers won't be as much as what the UK does.

 

Brexit will hurt everyone.
Both the uk and the eu. Brexit is a weakening of the EU as well as the UK. The future economic competitors are China, India and now the US with this insulting clown Trump. Now leaving the world's largest market against the background of the swirling trade wars is extremely stupid.

[melvinmelvin]

58 minutes ago, Spidey said:

Good luck with that. There is no way to avoid major injuries.

 

Furthermore, statistics show that, in a car crash, the passenger is more likely to sustain injuries than the driver.

 

With the Brexit negotiations, the EU is firmly in the driving seat and we are just the passenger.

 

that last sentence of yours - so true

but it didn't have to be that way

I've never understood why D Davis was kept on by the UK - nothing wrong with the guy per se but it was obvious from the very start

that he was not able to produce anything useful together with his French counterpart

those two do not go well together

just look at the body language of the two

[Spidey]

11 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

that last sentence of yours - so true

but it didn't have to be that way

 

I'm afraid it did. our negotiating team is an irrelevance. The EU hold all the cards, we hold none. Britain will accept the deal that Brussels offers or no deal at all. They have been determined to inflict the maximum punishment on us from the outset for our temerity for wanting to leave and a warning to others thinking of doing the same. Remember the divorce bill negotiations? UK offered 20bn but settled for a figure for between 37 and 42 bn.

 

Don't forget that it's 27 vs 1 and certain countries never wanted us in in the first place and will now be glad to see the back of us. Remember De Gaulle using his veto to prevent us from entering at the first attempt? The UK has always been the pariah of the EU.

Edited July 20, 2018 by Spidey

[Jip99]

2 minutes ago, Spidey said:

I'm afraid it did. our negotiating team is an irrelevance. The EU hold all the cards, we hold none. Britain will accept the deal that Brussels offers or no deal at all. They have been determined to inflict the maximum punishment on us from the outset for our temerity for wanting to leave and a warning to others thinking of doing the same. Remember the divorce bill negotiations? UK offered 20bn but settled for a figure for between 37 and 42 bn.

 

Don't forget that it's 27 vs 1 and certain countries never wanted us in in the first place and will now be glad to see the back of us. Remember De Gaulle using his veto to prevent us from entering at the first attempt? The UK has always been the pariah of the EU.

 

 

 

If you think that the UK holds "no cards" you are wrong.

[melvinmelvin]

1 minute ago, Spidey said:

I'm afraid it did. our negotiating team is an irrelevance. The EU hold all the cards, we hold none. Britain will accept the deal that Brussels offers or no deal at all. They have been determined to inflict the maximum punishment from us from the outset for our temerity for wanting to leave and a warning to others thinking of doing the same. Remember the divorce bill negotiations? UK offered 20bn but settled for a figure for between 37 and 42 bn.

 

Don't forget that it's 27 vs 1 and certain countries never wanted us in in the first place and will now be glad to see the back of us. Remember De Gaulle using his veto to prevent us from entering in the first place? The UK has always been the pariah of the EU.

 

yes, I remember the french general very well,

however, he didn't have the guts to refuse UK and accept a couple of other countries so he quite simply said no to expansion.

[Spidey]

3 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

 

If you think that the UK holds "no cards" you are wrong.

What cards do we hold?

[nontabury]

3 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

I thought it was obvious that the 'you' I was referring to was the collective 'you', but you are bang on the money - the collective you is offering absolutely nothing. 2 years down the line and all we have are a litany of lies and a tragic series of humiliations. 

True, we’ve been lied to all along, by a P.M who voted for remain, and who has since tried to keep the U.K shackled to the E.U.  Thankfully only a few have been taken in by her treacherous stance. Now we need for her to go, and to be replaced by a Brexiteer.

 

 

[melvinmelvin]

5 minutes ago, nontabury said:

True, we’ve been lied to all along, by a P.M who voted for remain, and who has since tried to keep the U.K shackled to the E.U.  Thankfully only a few have been taken in by her treacherous stance. Now we need for her to go, and to be replaced by a Brexiteer.

 

 

 

 

 

can understand your feelings,

dunno but I reckon few potential PMs would like to take the wheel just now - the risk of falling is pretty high

 

come 29 March - I reckon more would be willing - 1. April ain't no bad day for change of PM

 

[Spidey]

6 minutes ago, nontabury said:

True, we’ve been lied to all along, by a P.M who voted for remain, and who has since tried to keep the U.K shackled to the E.U.  Thankfully only a few have been taken in by her treacherous stance. Now we need for her to go, and to be replaced by a Brexiteer.

 

 

We will get exactly the same deal from the EU whether it's a remainer or a brexiteer doing the negotiations. The only possible difference for the UK might be that we would leave with no deal at all, which government brexiteers and remainers both agree would be a disaster for the UK.

[Jip99]

8 hours ago, Spidey said:

What cards do we hold?

 

 

If I knew that I would take up poker, professionally.

 

But to say we have "none" is simply dumb.

[Spidey]

1 minute ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

If I knew that I would take up poker, professionally.

 

But to say we have "none" is simply dumb.

I would suggest that you don't call people "dumb" in a dumb post.

 

I said that we have no cards to play, you said that I am wrong. I asked you "What cards do we have?". You had no idea then called me "dumb". Who is the dumbo here?

[bartender100]

4 minutes ago, Spidey said:

I would suggest that you don't call people "dumb" in a dumb post.

 

I said that we have no cards to play, you said that I am wrong. I asked you "What cards do we have?". You had no idea then called me "dumb". Who is the dumbo here?

We have the walk away and give them nothing card.

[Spidey]

Just now, bartender100 said:

We have the walk away and give them nothing card.

More of a card for them. Would do far more damage to the UK than any given country in the EU. They have actually used that card already, pointing out to the negotiating team that "tempus fugit" and "no deal" is the only alternative to acceding to all their demands.

[Jip99]

1 hour ago, Spidey said:

Who is the dumbo here?

 

 

You.

 

 

I thought I made that clear.

 

Nobody in any negotiation has "no cards".

 

Cameron certainly  left May with a suspect deck..... and she has done her best to fold.

[sandyf]

Those that view the WTO option as no big deal either have their head in the sand or just do not understand the implications. Although the level of tariffs will have an impact, the real issues will come from them being applied.

Back in the day when tariffs were in force goods description was a major issue, many export orders were subject to independent inspection, we normally had SGS come to inspect. Many companies would try and rearrange the description in an attempt to qualify for a lower tariff and it does not matter how much time has passed, that scenario will not have gone away.

Customers need to be confident that there will be no problem if their goods are are subject to full customs check on entry.

 

Mr Barnier also said there would be “practical problems” determining which tariff to apply to goods and that there was a “major risk of fraud”.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-eu-uk-chequers-white-paper-michel-barnier-theresa-may-a8456416.html

 

A WTO arrangement would only compound the problems with the Irish border.

[tebee]

10 hours ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

 

If you think that the UK holds "no cards" you are wrong.

 

10 hours ago, Spidey said:

What cards do we hold?

 

[sandyf]

14 hours ago, Rally123 said:

I am not offering anything. I never said 'trust me it will be ok' or has T May. Typical 'Remoaner'  in making up siht (anagram)

 

I never made any assumptions. You are making that up to suit your own agenda. Quit moaning and accept democracy, why don't ya?

Most people would see using historical data to support a future scenario as being an assumption, and one which you obviously support.

I take it you mean a democracy that tries to bypass parliament and bully ministers and MP's into doing what they want. You choose to ignore the fact that the UK is a parliamentary democracy, it is not yet the Peoples Democratic Republic of Great Britain.

[stephenterry]

10 hours ago, Spidey said:

We will get exactly the same deal from the EU whether it's a remainer or a brexiteer doing the negotiations. The only possible difference for the UK might be that we would leave with no deal at all, which government brexiteers and remainers both agree would be a disaster for the UK.

Actually, it is a Brexiteer, Raab, who is now hands on and leading the negotiations. What I cannot understand is what personal harm has the EU imposed on any Brexiteer? I doubt any in this forum, living in the UK, will be personally affected either way, apart from having to eat fish all day and realising their UK pension won't go as far, unless they carry out business with EU countries - and they will surely want to remain.   

 

The line taken on here is an overload of EU bureaucracy, fat cat EU politicians, intransigent Europeans etc. etc  or a 'mistake' in joining in the first place. Or even the 'stick in your gullet mantra' we must uphold the 'will of the people', 'democracy,' and the like', which is akin to being a lemming. No rhyme or reason. Or common sense.

 

Incidentally, and I'm sure Brexiteers will aim to disprove my opinion, that the main constituency demographics for voting to leave, were (and still will be if another referendum is called) being a low educated, unemployed person living in a mainly white community in breadline accommodation in the suburbs of large cities - some families of whom are historically wary of the EU. One rationale being - as a quote from a young white unemployed person in Middlesboro who voted leave - 'well it's got to be better than now, especially when all those migrants come in and take our jobs'. Pity he won't be able to help bail out the financial impact of Brexit, though.

 

While older people generally favoured leave, and younger people with jobs generally favoured remain, demographic stats indicate that the impact of either on the results, was negligible. But, big city populations of all classes and creeds, with availability of plentiful jobs correlated to a remain vote, in the main.

Ethnicity demographic voting did affect the voting outcome in some constituencies, but it was difficult to ascertain and correlate what reasons were behind their personal choice. Could have been employment, an ethnic community, religion or whatever.    

 

 

[sandyf]

11 hours ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

 

If you think that the UK holds "no cards" you are wrong.

You are quite right, the UK government holds the 'cards' of a large percentage of the industrial workforce.

 

As far as the negotiations are concerned, the UK chose to leave and the only thing they have on their side of the table are money and disruption to the operation of the EU.

The money is important to the EU but they can get by without it. Disruption is the main concern and which they will be keen to minimise, but within reason. They are not going to compromise on fundamental issues, and why should they, the problem is not of their making. The sooner that TM gets on the same page the better.

The EU has been taking steps to deal with the disruption for some time, appears the UK is waiting for some sort of divine intervention.