UK voters should make final Brexit decision if talks with EU collapse: poll

[melvinmelvin]

jeeez, give me a b

 

[mommysboy]

7 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

jeeez, give me a b

 

Ok, I give you a break- you need post no further- enjoy.?

[tebee]

1 hour ago, mommysboy said:

Ironically, the only option available at this moment is the 'Chequers deal'.  It's unpopularity is set to be on a par with poll tax.  And it has united both Leavers and Remainers.

 

It has now been roundly rejected by Barnier, and rumblings in all parties suggest that it stands very little chance of being approved by Parliament; a no deal Brexit would likely get the same treatment. 

 

The latest opinion polls have been rather damning for the Leavers.  Really though, I think their reservation is more about the vehicle being hitched to the Tory bandwagon. I say again, I don't think there has ever been a more wretched government.

 

Common sense needs to apply: there are many times in life when we simply can't get what we want, and there comes a time when the problems associated with doing something outweigh its benefits (if any).  I don't think we need another vote, it would only tell us what we know, namely that the country is split on the matter of wanting to leave the EU, and that is no way to proceed with anything either way.

 

The moderate, the clear thinker, the strategist would likely suggest that a suitable half way house be found.  This imo would likely involve the two stage process now being vaunted- the UK leaves to join the EEA, Norway style, and meanwhile negotiations can take place over a more suitable deal, Canada style, to take place some time later.

 

Both Remainers and Leavers should take note that people who demand all or nothing frequently end up with the latter.

 

 

Chequers deal is dead in the water.

 

Problem with the EEA deal is that it's only works as a compromise if you believe that neither side getting what they want and ending up with something that is worse than the status quo is a good compromise. Game theory will tell you why that doesn't work.

 

It boils down to this: because they are the only two positions that can sensibly be taken. If you want out and are prepared to pay the price, fine. Otherwise why wouldn’t you take your place in the institutions?

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

Hardcore Brexiteers stick to the idea that the Brexit vote is irreversible, even if that means a hard Brexit and any amount of damage to the U.K. economy.

 

Meanwhile 2.6milliin people who voted for Brexit have changed their minds:

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-referendum-millions-leave-voters-best-for-britain-no-deal-theresa-may-conservative-government-a8521346.html

 

The reality of the damage Brexit will do is getting through to people in the U.K. who have homes to keep, bills to pay and children to feed.

 

A fact that will not be missed during the forthcoming Party Conferences.

 

Don’t get distracted by a bunch of expat hardcore Brexiteers, they make a lot of noise and are reckless in the face of other people losing their jobs, but they have little if any skin in the game.

 

Millions abandoning Brexit and protecting the economy is what matters.

Edited September 4, 2018 by Chomper Higgot

[rixalex]

Hardcore Brexiteers stick to the idea that the Brexit vote is irreversible, even if that means a hard Brexit and any amount of damage to the U.K. economy.
 
Meanwhile 2.6milliin people who voted for Brexit have changed their minds:
 
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-referendum-millions-leave-voters-best-for-britain-no-deal-theresa-may-conservative-government-a8521346.html
 
The reality of the damage Brexit will do is getting through to people in the U.K. who have homes to keep, bills to pay and children to feed.
 
A fact that will not be missed during the forthcoming Party Conferences.
 
Don’t get distracted by a bunch of expat hardcore Brexiteers, they make a lot of noise and are reckless in the face of other people losing their jobs, but they have little if any skin in the game.
 
Millions abandoning Brexit and protecting the economy is what matters.

1) is this number a prediction, or a fact? You're stating it as the latter, that's why I ask.
2) who organised this survey?
3) how do you know how much skin other people have in the game?
4) how do you know what is best for people?

Sent from my SM-G610F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Chomper Higgot]

17 minutes ago, rixalex said:

1) is this number a prediction, or a fact? You're stating it as the latter, that's why I ask.
2) who organised this survey?
3) how do you know how much skin other people have in the game?
4) how do you know what is best for people?

Sent from my SM-G610F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

1. It’s not what I know for a fact, it’s what the political parties believe to be the National mood that matters.

 

2. Irrelevant, it’s the methodology that matters, and whether the results are in line with other surveys.

 

3. I don’t. But I’m willing to make a wild guess that people in the UK have more skin in the game than expats in Thailand.

 

4. When did I claim to know what’s best for people? I did not. But I do believe that people in the UK know what’s best for them and I believe they are able to see Brexit as the threat it is to their livelihoods.

 

Politics is an ever changing thing, it changes with the public mood and people give more thought when their own job is on the line.

 

Brexit promises to ditch existing trade in the hope of finding something to replace it.

 

The reality of that folly is dawning on people.

 

Have faith bro, common sense will win the day!

[SheungWan]

16 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

1. It’s not what I know for a fact, it’s what the political parties believe to be the National mood that matters.

2. Irrelevant, it’s the methodology that matters, and whether the results are in line with other surveys.

3. I don’t. But I’m willing to make a wild guess that people in the UK have more skin in the game than expats in Thailand.

4. When did I claim to know what’s best for people? I did not. But I do believe that people in the UK know what’s best for them and I believe they are able to see Brexit as the threat it is to their livelihoods.

Politics is an ever changing thing, it changes with the public mood and people give more thought when their own job is on the line.

Brexit promises to ditch existing trade in the hope of finding something to replace it.

The reality of that folly is dawning on people.

Have faith bro, common sense will win the day!

Common sense winning the day? Well maybe. The impact of the opinion polls only matters insofar as they affect what the MPs do. If the trend as reported is considered definite then 2 things to watch out for: the first is the soft wing of the Conservative Party not rolling over, and the second is the Hard Brexiteer determination to crash out asap to prevent a likely reversal. In short, little has changed. The dog that doesn't bark is the Labour Party under the leadership of pro-Brexiteer Corbyn.

[mommysboy]

2 hours ago, tebee said:

 

Chequers deal is dead in the water.

 

Problem with the EEA deal is that it's only works as a compromise if you believe that neither side getting what they want and ending up with something that is worse than the status quo is a good compromise. Game theory will tell you why that doesn't work.

 

It boils down to this: because they are the only two positions that can sensibly be taken. If you want out and are prepared to pay the price, fine. Otherwise why wouldn’t you take your place in the institutions?

 

 

It is a compromise deal and would be temporary- say 10 years while this mess is sorted and it needs that long to do the job properly.

 

A small minority of hard core Remainers and Leavers won't like it, sure, but the former really have no right to deny Brexit, and the latter probably represent no more than 15% of the vote.

 

Parliament, the people, and even the EU will not stand for a bad deal or no deal; I suppose that's something to be cheerful about.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 4, 2018 by mommysboy

[Grouse]

12 hours ago, johnj said:

It's time to call the Brussels elites bluff now by declaring we will leave without a deal and see how much turmoil it causes in the rest of the EU. All you ever read about is how bad it will be for the UK., well just the fact that there is a massive trade imbalance between the UK., and the rest of the EU., in the EU's favour tells you how much more it will hurt individual EU., countries. We will have 39 billion a year to help cushion the after affects. freedom to trade with who we like, stop giving Benefits handouts for kids living in EU., countries. We only ever hear from the bias media that are trying to overturn the referendum about how much it will damage the UK., economy. Well its a two way collision, so damage to both parties. 

You gamblers!

 

There is no bluff. Walk!

 

There is a perfectly reasonable way or ways forward. But when Boris comes up with fight metaphors you know he's just being silly.

 

The EU 27 are not going to change their core principles what ever.

 

Apply to stay in an outer layer of the EU

 

Good that Mark Carney is staying BTW 

[Grouse]

This is slightly but not entirely off topic

 

I'm going to recommend that serious regular contributors (and mods) listen to a series on Radio 4 this week. Jonathan Sacks is presenting "Morality in the 21st Century"

 

Yesterday was good and today excellent. It addresses many of the issues which exercise us here on a regular basis.

 

It's a serious listen. Well worth it. It's what the BBC does well!

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0bh7jkp/episodes/player

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/play/b0bgq6dy

Edited September 4, 2018 by Grouse

[melvinmelvin]

15 minutes ago, Grouse said:

You gamblers!

 

There is no bluff. Walk!

 

There is a perfectly reasonable way or ways forward. But when Boris comes up with fight metaphors you know he's just being silly.

 

The EU 27 are not going to change their core principles what ever.

 

Apply to stay in an outer layer of the EU

 

Good that Mark Carney is staying BTW 

 

eu

 

inner layers

outer layers

onions

peeling

being inside pissing out

 

a pity that J Cleese is past 80,

M Python could have had a ball, for years, with Brexit and related issues

 

 

[bristolboy]

32 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

It is a compromise deal and would be temporary- say 10 years while this mess is sorted and it needs that long to do the job properly.

 

A small minority of hard core Remainers and Leavers won't like it, sure, but the former really have no right to deny Brexit, and the latter probably represent no more than 15% of the vote.

 

Parliament, the people, and even the EU will not stand for a bad deal or no deal; I suppose that's something to be cheerful about.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's a good idea. In 10 years a disproportionate number of leave voters would be gone and the whole Brexit effort abandoned.

[rixalex]

1. It’s not what I know for a fact, it’s what the political parties believe to be the National mood that matters.
 
2. Irrelevant, it’s the methodology that matters, and whether the results are in line with other surveys.
 
3. I don’t. But I’m willing to make a wild guess that people in the UK have more skin in the game than expats in Thailand.
 
4. When did I claim to know what’s best for people? I did not. But I do believe that people in the UK know what’s best for them and I believe they are able to see Brexit as the threat it is to their livelihoods.
 
Politics is an ever changing thing, it changes with the public mood and people give more thought when their own job is on the line.
 
Brexit promises to ditch existing trade in the hope of finding something to replace it.
 
The reality of that folly is dawning on people.
 
Have faith bro, common sense will win the day!

1) Nothing has changed. Political parties know that the country is split more or less down the middle. The only definitive guage they can work on, without there being another vote, is the referendum and the most recent general election.

2) Of course the source is relevant. The fact that you omitted to mention it speaks volumes.

3) Lots of assumptions together with a patronizing belief that your cause is the righteous one.

4) Selectively caring about public opinion.

Sent from my SM-G610F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[billd766]

2 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Hardcore Brexiteers stick to the idea that the Brexit vote is irreversible, even if that means a hard Brexit and any amount of damage to the U.K. economy.

 

Meanwhile 2.6milliin people who voted for Brexit have changed their minds:

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-referendum-millions-leave-voters-best-for-britain-no-deal-theresa-may-conservative-government-a8521346.html

 

The reality of the damage Brexit will do is getting through to people in the U.K. who have homes to keep, bills to pay and children to feed.

 

A fact that will not be missed during the forthcoming Party Conferences.

 

Don’t get distracted by a bunch of expat hardcore Brexiteers, they make a lot of noise and are reckless in the face of other people losing their jobs, but they have little if any skin in the game.

 

Millions abandoning Brexit and protecting the economy is what matters.

 

From the link that you provided from a newspaper that is biased towards Remain.

 

quote "

The new study was carried out by data analysis experts Focaldata for pro-EU campaign group Best for Britain. It was based on two YouGov polls that together surveyed more than 15,000 people.

In total, it concluded that 2.6 million Leave voters have switched their support to Remain, while 970,000 have moved the other way – a net gain for the pro-EU side of 1.6 million."

 

This is one reason why I ignore polls.

 

They are usually biased one way or another.

[Jip99]

7 minutes ago, billd766 said:

 

From the link that you provided from a newspaper that is biased towards Remain.

 

quote "

The new study was carried out by data analysis experts Focaldata for pro-EU campaign group Best for Britain. It was based on two YouGov polls that together surveyed more than 15,000 people.

In total, it concluded that 2.6 million Leave voters have switched their support to Remain, while 970,000 have moved the other way – a net gain for the pro-EU side of 1.6 million."

 

This is one reason why I ignore polls.

 

They are usually biased one way or another.

 

 

.... and they wonder why the bookies got it so horribly wrong.

 

 

Pin your colours to that sort of "poll" and you are sunk.

[tebee]

55 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

It is a compromise deal and would be temporary- say 10 years while this mess is sorted and it needs that long to do the job properly.

 

A small minority of hard core Remainers and Leavers won't like it, sure, but the former really have no right to deny Brexit, and the latter probably represent no more than 15% of the vote.

 

Parliament, the people, and even the EU will not stand for a bad deal or no deal; I suppose that's something to be cheerful about.  

 

 

It's a pretty bad compromise, it's Brexit in name only under another name. I must admit I would be happy to settle for  it, though I won't campaign for it. I would have thought leavers had more reasons to be unhappy about it  though. Needs to be in conjunction with remaining in the CU to make any sense though.

 

I can't see us having time to negotiate it now though - either within the Tory party or with the other members.

 

I more and more think it going to be down to a choice of remain or no deal.

 

 

[Henryford]

Just like the polls before the referendum. These polls are rigged to give the answer the sponser wants. How can 15,000 predict how 33 million will vote.

[tebee]

Just now, Henryford said:

Just like the polls before the referendum. These polls are rigged to give the answer the sponser wants. How can 15,000 predict how 33 million will vote.

Well, we just better have another referendum then....

[Henryford]

4 minutes ago, tebee said:

Well, we just better have another referendum then.... 

We just had one, you lost.

[tebee]

Just now, Henryford said:

We just had one, you lost.

But if you won't accept the polls findings, then surly the only alternative is a new referendum?

 

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, Henryford said:

Just like the polls before the referendum. These polls are rigged to give the answer the sponser wants. How can 15,000 predict how 33 million will vote.

You just told the world you don’t understand statistics.

[bristolboy]

6 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

You just told the world you don’t understand statistics.

It's okay not to understand statistics. In fact, given the dread it inspires in lots of students bound for careers in medicine and engineering, probably inevitable for most of us.  But it's less okay is to not understand that you don't understand statistics.

[tomacht8]

Barnier said the EU is offering Britain a free trade agreement, as concluded with Canada or South Korea. Further economic ties are also possible: "They could stay in the internal market, like Norway, which is also not an EU member. However, then they would have to take all the associated rules and accession payments to European solidarity. "However, he strictly rejected that the United Kingdom picks only individual parts of the market. "That would be the end of the single market and the European project."

I wonder how long it will take until May realizes that her Checkers plan is not working.

There are five options left:
- Hard Brexit without regulations
- Canada model
- Norway model
- Transition period
- Remaining.


 

[melvinmelvin]

9 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

Barnier said the EU is offering Britain a free trade agreement, as concluded with Canada or South Korea. Further economic ties are also possible: "They could stay in the internal market, like Norway, which is also not an EU member. However, then they would have to take all the associated rules and accession payments to European solidarity. "However, he strictly rejected that the United Kingdom picks only individual parts of the market. "That would be the end of the single market and the European project."

I wonder how long it will take until May realizes that her Checkers plan is not working.

There are five options left:
- Hard Brexit without regulations
- Canada model
- Norway model
- Transition period
- Remaining.


 

 

RUB ish

 

[tomacht8]

2 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

RUB ish

 

WOW
That's all in your brain?
Do not forget to breathe!

[aright]

 

I see it is rumoured  Mrs Merkel would like to see a German (Peter Altmaier....former Economics Minister)) chosen as successor to Jean-Claude Juncker as President of the European Committee.

The Secretary General of the Commission (Martin Selmayr) is German as is the secretary General of the European Parliament.

The President of the centre-right Federation is German so is the Secretary General  of the European Party of European Socialists . It is being proposed however that Manfred Weber who has never held ministerial office run for the EPP post ……..obviously German.

Are you thinking what I'm thinking?

 

 

[melvinmelvin]

5 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

WOW
That's all in your brain?
Do not forget to breathe!

yep, all in my head, breathing is ok

 

its fairly obvious that you have weak ideas about what you are writing

i'm kinda pissed off by brits on high horses suffering from superiority complex and having

no respect for sovereign european states

 

[Card]

On 9/1/2018 at 10:41 AM, Bluespunk said:

Nothing you say changes my view that there is no justification for denying another vote that contains a remain option. 

 

The will of the people can change. 

 

That is democracy. 

 

Denying that option is anti democratic. 

I am not trying to persuade you either way. I am characterizing British democracy. That democracy is both the expression of the will of the people enclosed in the proper managed process in which it is garnered. Both were satisfied in the referendum. To now claim that minds have changed, presumably determined by opinion polls, which do not constitute either the expression or process by which the will of the people is determined, is wrong. There is  a chance of another vote but first the will of the people gathered in the correct manner has to be fulfilled and the passing of the Brexit Bill will ensure that happens. That is not denying democracy, it is extending it. You can twist the result in any way you want in your own mind, but you are wrong because you do not know what British constitutional democracy is all about..

[Card]

1 minute ago, melvinmelvin said:

yep, all in my head, breathing is ok

 

its fairly obvious that you have weak ideas about what you are writing

i'm kinda pissed off by brits on high horses suffering from superiority complex and having

no respect for sovereign european states

 

There are no sovereign states in the EU because EU law takes precedence over all their laws.

[tomacht8]

Just now, melvinmelvin said:

yep, all in my head, breathing is ok

 

its fairly obvious that you have weak ideas about what you are writing

i'm kinda pissed off by brits on high horses suffering from superiority complex and having

no respect for sovereign european states

 

And I can understand the UK well.
Unfortunately they are split almost in the middle 48:52.
And the polls, however, by whom, already show movements.
Too bad that UK policy is unable to find compromises.