Brexit could sway Scottish voters towards independence from UK - poll

[RuamRudy]

20 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

I believn some of Brexit is not clear: 29 March 2019, 11:00 Greenwich time, the U.K. is OUT of the EU. Result of the referendum in 2016.

The discussion now is ONLY and ONLY abortus: which conditions are still possible for an non-EU state like the U.K. 

 

That in the U.K. there are still people, who wants to have a second referendum about if they LIKE the "divorse" agreement… so be it. Has nothing to do with the EU membership, as that ends.. 29 March next year, art 12:00 MET.

Maybe the U.K. can file a new application to be member (again) of the E.U. = but that's another question.

The problem is that around half the voting public in Scotland no longer see the United Kingdom as being united; they believe that Scotland would benefit if it was to make its own decisions. Whatever happens after Brexit, the likeihood of a UK application to rejoin seems very remote.

 

Fortunately, the EU has indicated that an independent Scotland, as a former member, could be fast-tracked back into the EU should it wish to rejoin. By that time, if Northern Ireland remains in the UK, we will already will have a working example of a UK/EU land border so we can replicate that and all is solved.

[vogie]

18 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Tell you what, pal - why not put in a bit of effort yourself? Write to your MP, start a English Independence Party, create some momentum - don't leave all the hard work to the Scots.

This is not about the Scots, this is about the SNP, most Scots I believe want to remain with the Union.

[puipuitom]

2 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

The problem is that around half the voting public in Scotland no longer see the United Kingdom as being united; they believe that Scotland would benefit if it was to make its own decisions. Whatever happens after Brexit, the likeihood of a UK application to rejoin seems very remote.

 

Fortunately, the EU has indicated that an independent Scotland, as a former member, could be fast-tracked back into the EU should it wish to rejoin. By that time, if Northern Ireland remains in the UK, we will already will have a working example of a UK/EU land border so we can replicate that and all is solved.

Maybe… Scotland to leave the U.K. latest 29 March 10:59:59 means... is and stays in the EU.

And that working example of an UK/EU border... could be the same as between the EU and Belo-Russ or Kaliningrad-Russia and EU... as no association agreement signed between UK and EU like between EU and Turkey or Ukraine and all North African Mediterranen countries..

[RuamRudy]

3 minutes ago, vogie said:

This is not about the Scots, this is about the SNP, most Scots I believe want to remain with the Union.

 

This suggests differently, as do the results of the last two polls. Add to that the fact that there are more SNP MPs than all the rest combined, and the SNP has a near majority in Holyrood, which is contrived to specifically avoid one party dominating.

 

Looking at the numbers in the chart above, it is fair to assume a not insignificant number of No voters have since died in the intervening years; the demographics show a significant switch in allegiance after about the age of 50. During the same period, Scottish young people under 25 are polling around 70% for independence. A whole load of new Yes voters have come of age, while the No voters are expiring.

 

For those born outside the UK, while many may have already fled the country, it would be hard to imaqgine any reason for those who remain to vote No.

 

So, from an objective persepctive, I cannot see how the No campaign will be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat next time. Other than the continuing suggestions that we are too wee, too poor, too incapable of managing our own affairs, what can the UK government offer in the way of positive reasons for the continuation of the union?

 

 

[transam]

35 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

So if we achieve independence, are you suggesting that the cost to deliver a letter to the more remote parts of England or Wales will be no higher than to deliver next door to the sorting office?

Population to landmass ratio chummy..

 

England about 50m peeps to 50k sq/m

Scotland about 5m peeps to 30k sg/m.

Forget Wales as they don't talk much..

 

So I reckon Scot posty has to do a lot more to deliver stuff, plus know how to row between all those islands..

[RuamRudy]

2 minutes ago, transam said:

Population to landmass ratio chummy..

 

England about 50m peeps to 50k sq/m

Scotland about 5m peeps to 30k sg/m.

Forget Wales as they don't talk much..

 

So I reckon Scot posty has to do a lot more to deliver stuff, plus know how to row between all those islands..

Of course, but if you live in some remote part of the Peak District, it costs more to deliver a letter to you than to someone in central London, so the argument is the same - simply the incremental costs are different. But, I acknowledge a possibly valid point that postal rates may go up. Will it be enough though, in the age of email, to convince people to drop all notions of independence? I am not so sure.

[chrissables]

As already stated, Scotland wants independence from whom? If they remain in the UK or the EU, they are not independent.

 

Are they in a position to actually be a REAL independent country? 

[RuamRudy]

1 minute ago, chrissables said:

As already stated, Scotland wants independence from whom? If they remain in the UK or the EU, they are not independent.

 

Are they in a position to actually be a REAL independent country? 

Can you be a bit clearer? What is a 'REAL independent country'?

 

Maybe this will help:

 

[chrissables]

2 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Can you be a bit clearer? What is a 'REAL independent country'?

 

Maybe this will help:

 

Clearer? If Scotland decide to go independent in the real meaning of the word, they will be just that independent. Not part of the UK or the EU.
I am sure there are reasons from both sides within Scotland for staying or leaving the UK, but if they do and become a member of the EU they are not independent.
Or i am misunderstand the meaning of independence?

[vogie]

18 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

 

This suggests differently, as do the results of the last two polls. Add to that the fact that there are more SNP MPs than all the rest combined, and the SNP has a near majority in Holyrood, which is contrived to specifically avoid one party dominating.

 

Looking at the numbers in the chart above, it is fair to assume a not insignificant number of No voters have since died in the intervening years; the demographics show a significant switch in allegiance after about the age of 50. During the same period, Scottish young people under 25 are polling around 70% for independence. A whole load of new Yes voters have come of age, while the No voters are expiring.

 

For those born outside the UK, while many may have already fled the country, it would be hard to imaqgine any reason for those who remain to vote No.

 

So, from an objective persepctive, I cannot see how the No campaign will be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat next time. Other than the continuing suggestions that we are too wee, too poor, too incapable of managing our own affairs, what can the UK government offer in the way of positive reasons for the continuation of the union?

 

 

But the SNP do not hold a majority in Holyrood as you pointed out, if Scotlands first lady wanted another referendum for Indy, would she get the backing from other members. As far as I can assertain Mrs Sturgeon has shown no interest in a second referendum, indeed she has stated that she doesn't want one for at least 4 years after Brexit, and a lot can happen in 4 years.

I would take what some are saying on here with a pinch of salt, anyone who cares about our Union I would assume that they didn't want the Union to split. We have a lot of history together and of course the same language, there are still many emotional ties for many across the United Kingdom.

[RuamRudy]

1 minute ago, chrissables said:

Clearer? If Scotland decide to go independent in the real meaning of the word, they will be just that independent. Not part of the UK or the EU.
I am sure there are reasons from both sides within Scotland for staying or leaving the UK, but if they do and become a member of the EU they are not independent.
Or i am misunderstand the meaning of independence?

Possibly we have differing views of what constitutes independence. But, to be fair, it is not correct to say that all those who support Scottish independence also support remaining in the EU; there are some very prominent former SNP members, most notable former deputy leader Jim Fairlie, who are very against an independent Scotland in Europe. At the time of the Brexit referendum, I saw figures suggesting that as many as 30% of SNP voters voted to leave the EU, although I have no idea where those numbers came from.

 

Personally, I want independence for Scotland first - after that, the political landscape will change immeasurably. We can turn our attention to the issue of the EU then.

 

 

[RuamRudy]

11 minutes ago, vogie said:

But the SNP do not hold a majority in Holyrood as you pointed out, if Scotlands first lady wanted another referendum for Indy, would she get the backing from other members. As far as I can assertain Mrs Sturgeon has shown no interest in a second referendum, indeed she has stated that she doesn't want one for at least 4 years after Brexit, and a lot can happen in 4 years.

I would take what some are saying on here with a pinch of salt, anyone who cares about our Union I would assume that they didn't want the Union to split. We have a lot of history together and of course the same language, there are still many emotional ties for many across the United Kingdom.

The SNP does not have a majority, but they have a coalition with the Greens, who also campaigned on a platform of independence for Scotland, so it is fair to say that there are a majority of independence supporting MSPs in Holyrood.

 

I have not read about her wanting to wait 4 years - that would probably be a disaster for the independence movement; capitalise on the turmoil would be my strategy.

 

Our shared history won't change because we choose not to have our laws made in our neighbour's capital. We won't be erecting a Trumpist wall and demanding reparations for percieved injustices. All it means that the decisions that affect the lives of Scots will be taken by Scots. You don't run your household in accordance with direction given to you by your next door neighbour; why should our country by run in such a way?

Edited September 3, 2018 by RuamRudy

[chrissables]

10 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Possibly we have differing views of what constitutes independence. But, to be fair, it is not correct to say that all those who support Scottish independence also support remaining in the EU; there are some very prominent former SNP members, most notable former deputy leader Jim Fairlie, who are very against an independent Scotland in Europe. At the time of the Brexit referendum, I saw figures suggesting that as many as 30% of SNP voters voted to leave the EU, although I have no idea where those numbers came from.

 

Personally, I want independence for Scotland first - after that, the political landscape will change immeasurably. We can turn our attention to the issue of the EU then.

 

 

I have made no statement regarding those who support or not Scottish Independence. Just my views on what independence means. Staying in either the EU or the UK is not Independence.

 

I do at times wish we could have English independence, but we never are offered a vote about that ?

[RuamRudy]

1 minute ago, chrissables said:

I have made no statement regarding those who support or not Scottish Independence. Just my views on what independence means. Staying in either the EU or the UK is not Independence.

 

I do at times wish we could have English independence, but we never are offered a vote about that ?

 

18 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

But, to be fair, it is not correct to say that all those who support Scottish independence also support remaining in the EU

Sorry, I wasn't attributing the above statement to you; it was more to myself, I guess.

 

Personally, I think independence will be good for both Scotland and the rest of the UK. As I said in my reply to Vogie, we are not going to become a hostile neighbour. 300 years of history and accomplishment will not be written off. This anti-English sentiment we often read about that is supposed to be the driving force behind Scottish independence simply doesn't exist, or is nothing more than low rent jingoism, similar to the anti-Scottish rhetoric you can see in any TV thread about Scottish independence.

 

[vogie]

40 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

The SNP does not have a majority, but they have a coalition with the Greens, who also campaigned on a platform of independence for Scotland, so it is fair to say that there are a majority of independence supporting MSPs in Holyrood.

 

I have not read about her wanting to wait 4 years - that would probably be a disaster for the independence movement; capitalise on the turmoil would be my strategy.

 

Our shared history won't change because we choose not to have our laws made in our neighbour's capital. We won't be erecting a Trumpist wall and demanding reparations for percieved injustices. All it means that the decisions that affect the lives of Scots will be taken by Scots. You don't run your household in accordance with direction given to you by your next door neighbour; why should our country by run in such a way?

This was said in Oct last year, I am not sure if anything has changed since then.

 

The First Minister has repeatedly stated she would not set a date for a ballot until there was greater clarity on Brexit.

 

However she has not ruled out holding another vote within the next four years.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scotland-independence-referendum-scottish-national-party-snp-a7991006.

 

 

[Nigel Garvie]

1 hour ago, RuamRudy said:

The SNP does not have a majority, but they have a coalition with the Greens, who also campaigned on a platform of independence for Scotland, so it is fair to say that there are a majority of independence supporting MSPs in Holyrood.

 

I have not read about her wanting to wait 4 years - that would probably be a disaster for the independence movement; capitalise on the turmoil would be my strategy.

 

Our shared history won't change because we choose not to have our laws made in our neighbour's capital. We won't be erecting a Trumpist wall and demanding reparations for percieved injustices. All it means that the decisions that affect the lives of Scots will be taken by Scots. You don't run your household in accordance with direction given to you by your next door neighbour; why should our country by run in such a way?

On the other hand we might need to rebuild Hadrian's wall, and as Trump would do, we will demand that the English pay for it. However since the Brexit vote appears to have established that for many English there is a clear link between unwanted immigrants and desiring independence from EU, we will be happy to offer jobs on the wall, to all those unemployed Englishmen who feel that the work that immigrants do is beneath them. TIC.

 

 

[melvinmelvin]

 

slightly off topic, but still ....

 

Scotland opting out of UK is a possibility

NI likewise

Wales - I don't know

 

Over the past 6 months, I have read several articles about Shetlands and movements re going it alone, ie out of Scotland

 

Now, if the split of UK happens - what about UK of GB and NI overseas territories?

 

Falklands, Diego Garcia, Ascension and other heaps of rocks here and there, Gibraltar?

 

Are these considered English territories? Or how to split/share?

 

[nauseus]

3 hours ago, Nigel Garvie said:

On the other hand we might need to rebuild Hadrian's wall, and as Trump would do, we will demand that the English pay for it. However since the Brexit vote appears to have established that for many English there is a clear link between unwanted immigrants and desiring independence from EU, we will be happy to offer jobs on the wall, to all those unemployed Englishmen who feel that the work that immigrants do is beneath them. TIC.

 

 

Caesar should pay.

[sawadee1947]

I would be happy if Scotland will go for it. That would be the end og GB and UK. At last and least. Let us pray it will happen.

[sawadee1947]

3 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

Falklands, Diego Garcia, Ascension and other heaps of rocks here and there, Gibraltar?

what do you have in common with these forgotten areas? Do you speak the language? Do you have relatives there? So what?

[sawadee1947]

7 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

Northern Ireland

It's high time for a Reunification of Ireland. Look to Germany. They got it already!

[sawadee1947]

7 hours ago, puipuitom said:

Maybe the U.K. can file a new application to driving on the right lane for instance ?

well, that would be a reasonable start of new relationship with EU! And then introduce the EURO.....Barnier would be happy!

[sawadee1947]

11 hours ago, smedly said:

I hear this all the time and it is stupidity beyond belief 

 

It is not independence - Scotland has 3 choices, stay in the UK or Join the EU neither of these options are independence,

 

All that would change is the source of their handouts

 

It is obvious that Scotland doesn't want to even think about total independence because that 3rd choice is never ever mentioned, what does that tell me ?. It tells me the great Nation of Scotland are well aware that being on their own would not be a good idea , if they did opt for total independence they would  be very poor indeed.

 

Too funny

you are too funny, mate. Scotland can choose the way of being part of the winners but not that of losers. And that UK will be the loser is very clear even to Ms May.

[vogie]

10 minutes ago, sawadee1947 said:

you are too funny, mate. Scotland can choose the way of being part of the winners but not that of losers. And that UK will be the loser is very clear even to Ms May.

Scotland has already chosen, they voted to remain within the Union, something I believe you care little about.

[AlexRich]

13 hours ago, canopus1969 said:

Great idea, we wouldn't have to support them financially and save a lot of money 

 

You don't and you never have ... quite the opposite, as the oil revenues from the North Sea over several decades helped to fund the dole queues created during the Thatcher era ... and after independence the Scots will rejoin the EU and be a magnet for inward investment to overseas companies looking to serve the EU market ... I never supported independence but it does make sense now given that it will boost Edinburgh's financial district and attract the massive inward investment that England and Wales are losing, with more to go post-Brexit. Brexit supporters put immigration before wealth, prosperity and the Union ... enjoy Little England. 

[AlexRich]

10 hours ago, vogie said:

At the end of the day RR it was the Scots themselves that voted to remain within the Union.

The Union ... and just as importantly, the EU.

 

In 2014 if Brexit was considered to be a certain outcome, Scotland would certainly have voted to leave the Union. 

[vogie]

30 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

The Union ... and just as importantly, the EU.

 

In 2014 if Brexit was considered to be a certain outcome, Scotland would certainly have voted to leave the Union. 

That is your supposition not mine. Why did the SNP lose so many seats in the General Election after the EU referendum?

[AlexRich]

1 hour ago, vogie said:

That is your supposition not mine. Why did the SNP lose so many seats in the General Election after the EU referendum?

 

I suspect that people in Scotland are heartily sick of elections and also that they would want to see what the outcome of the EU negotiations produced ... a soft brexit with strong EU single market/customs union ties may well have been acceptable. As for the SNP, you just can't hang on to that lead in politics for very long ... but if that poll is anything to go by it may well be that Scots simply don't want to crash out of the EU and into the hands of the Rees-Mogg's and Johnson's of this world. So less about breaking up the UK, more to do with not being wrenched from the EU against their will. I also believe that should the UK end up with a hard brexit then the case for a split and re-joining the EU would be more compelling than before ... with massive inward investment (and I suspect some English immigration would come along with that).

[Somtamnication]

Arrivederchi Roma  Edinburgh. Bye bye.?

[Kiwiken]

Your vote should always be on the basis of 60/40 or a vote is inconclusive. Look at the turmoil 51% has caused. I am a fan of referendums to ensure true Democracy but since in most of Our Democracies 20-40% cannot be bothered even voting then a clear majority ensures the outcome is less contentious.