$AU down to 18 Baht by end 2019 - What's your break-even point?

[Stevemercer]

The Aussie dollar was 30 Baht just 5 years ago. Now it is 23 Baht (25% drop). Most predictions have the Aussie dollar down to 18 Baht by the end to 2019 (40% drop compared to 5 years ago when I moved to Thailand).

 

I always figured I could live comfortably in Thailand on half the money I needed in Australia. If the Aussie goes down to 18 Baht things will be getting desperate for me. If it drops to 15 Baht (50% drop), it might be cheaper for me to live back in Australia. That's my break-even point.

 

The main problem I have is that I don't own a house or any property in Australia, so it would be hard to move back even if day to day living was cheaper. Even at 15 Baht, rents in Australia will still be prohibitive compared to Thailand. The only way I could swing it would be to try and find work to pay for the rent.

 

<deleted> it! Maybe the Aussie will turn around or there'll be a coup or something in Thailand.

[CharlieH]

Often the single most expensive cost is accommodation. If you are not lucky enough to have bought your own place I would suggest cohabiting with another person perhaps in the same boat. That would reduce overheads by 50% immediately for both parties.

 

Just a suggestion.

[Naam]

22 minutes ago, Stevemercer said:

Most predictions have the Aussie dollar down to 18 Baht by the end to 2019

"most predictions" as far as currency movements are concerned are nothing but lukewarm farts no matter which "gurus" made them. if those who predict that kind of movement in AUD/THB (minus ~20%) would put their money where their big mouth is they could make millions.... that is if their forecast turns out to be correct.

[Iforbach]

Agree if we could predict ups downs of currencies..we all be living high life ...why think that far ahead ...chase balloons n happy hours ....well happy hours ?

[dinsdale]

54 minutes ago, Stevemercer said:

Most predictions have the Aussie dollar down to 18 Baht by the end to 2019

Like to see these predictions. Dropping from 23-24 to 18 (25%) in 1.25 yrs??

[Pungdo]

When it got down to 21 and a bit in early 2009 I was telling my wife that I didn't think I could afford to live here anymore, now I have a nearly 7 yr old daughter and my overheads are even higher, at 23.5 it's tough enough. ?

 

[Guderian]

Maybe .... there'll be a coup or something in Thailand.

 

We already had one in 2014 in case you missed it, and it didn't hurt the Baht at all. Nor did the one back in 2006 as far as I can recall.

[watcharacters]

4 hours ago, Stevemercer said:

The Aussie dollar was 30 Baht just 5 years ago. Now it is 23 Baht (25% drop). Most predictions have the Aussie dollar down to 18 Baht by the end to 2019 (40% drop compared to 5 years ago when I moved to Thailand).

 

I always figured I could live comfortably in Thailand on half the money I needed in Australia. If the Aussie goes down to 18 Baht things will be getting desperate for me. If it drops to 15 Baht (50% drop), it might be cheaper for me to live back in Australia. That's my break-even point.

 

The main problem I have is that I don't own a house or any property in Australia, so it would be hard to move back even if day to day living was cheaper. Even at 15 Baht, rents in Australia will still be prohibitive compared to Thailand. The only way I could swing it would be to try and find work to pay for the rent.

 

<deleted> it! Maybe the Aussie will turn around or there'll be a coup or something in Thailand.

 

 

Just take it day to day and don't worry about the exchange rate.   You have no control over it at all.

 

Enjoy your time here even with less available  funds.    What goes down eventually goes up and visa versa (hopefully)

 

Naam's post is beyond brilliant.    Probably the most  brilliant post I've ever seen.

 

Don't count on a  coup.   Just keep on keeping on.

 

Good luck.

[wombat]

we still have time for 3 more PM's before the next election.
Is it any wonder the money/share market is jittery and will manipulate us for every cent the big boys can get

 

[Lacessit]

Naam is right. Over the past ten years, the AUD against the baht has NEVER been below 20 baht. Currencies fluctuate all the time. ( Source: xe.com )

Once we get rid of the current cabal of clowns in Canberra, and develop a sensible energy policy, the Aussie dollar will rise again.

[bridge2bridge]

17 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Naam is right. Over the past ten years, the AUD against the baht has NEVER been below 20 baht. Currencies fluctuate all the time. ( Source: xe.com )

Once we get rid of the current cabal of clowns in Canberra, and develop a sensible energy policy, the Aussie dollar will rise again.

And end up with ANOTHER clown named SHORTEN.

 

[Time Traveller]

Don't worry mate, I first came to Thailand when the Aussie was 18 to the Baht......had some great times then !

But just a tip: If you're worried about exchange rates, try not to have you cashflow (income) in a different currency to your costs (expenditures).....there's plenty of investment options out there for you to reduce currency risk

[Sparkles]

It did actually go to 32 baht to the A$ now its 28.3 baht or was a few days back when I got my OA pension.

 

17 years ago when I arrived in Bangkok to work it was 26 baht.

 

Exchange rate is not my biggest worry, its the lack of health  insurance here once you reach 70.I am now 76.

 

That is a major factor if returning to Australia as a permanent resident and getting  back on Medicare.

 

Then for my lovely Thai wife to join me you have to pay way over $6,000 for a non refundable application for  visa.

 

The Aus aged pension would not even pay the rent for a reasonable dwelling to live in plus horrendous utility bills.

 

Stuffed whichever way I go so I try to not worry about things I have no control over

 

 

[Sparkles]

31 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Naam is right. Over the past ten years, the AUD against the baht has NEVER been below 20 baht. Currencies fluctuate all the time. ( Source: xe.com )

Once we get rid of the current cabal of clowns in Canberra, and develop a sensible energy policy, the Aussie dollar will rise again.

Politics has little effect on currency fluctuations .It was the resources boom that sent the $A up.

[Time Traveller]

2 hours ago, watcharacters said:

 

 

Just take it day to day and don't worry about the exchange rate.   You have no control over it at all.

 

 

Naam's post is beyond brilliant.    Probably the most  brilliant post I've ever seen.

 

Don't count on a  coup.   Just keep on keeping on.

 

Good luck.

Fortunately, sarcasm is not understood by the Klingons. In fact, thinking is not their strong points, but they often repeat well worn out tidbits of advice to maintain the illusion of intellectual superiority ?

 

[Time Traveller]

15 minutes ago, Sparkles said:

It did actually go to 32 baht to the A$ now its 28.3 baht or was a few days back when I got my OA pension.

 

17 years ago when I arrived in Bangkok to work it was 26 baht.

 

Exchange rate is not my biggest worry, its the lack of health  insurance here once you reach 70.I am now 76.

 

That is a major factor if returning to Australia as a permanent resident and getting  back on Medicare.

 

Then for my lovely Thai wife to join me you have to pay way over $6,000 for a non refundable application for  visa.

 

The Aus aged pension would not even pay the rent for a reasonable dwelling to live in plus horrendous utility bills.

 

Stuffed whichever way I go so I try to not worry about things I have no control over

 

 

That's sounds horrible. Not talking about your predicament, but your whole outlook on life and expectations of how people owe you a living. 

I appreciate that you are old, but you can still get a job, instead of expecting welfare to take care of you. Plenty of people work into their 70's,......and 90% of the world are in that situation same as you or without any access to welfare at all.

As for health care costs, Thailand has many affordable options. After living in America for a number of years, the health care savings alone is why I would choose to retire in Thailand.

Edited September 5, 2018 by Time Traveller

[watcharacters]

12 minutes ago, Time Traveller said:

Fortunately, sarcasm is not understood by the Klingons. In fact, thinking is not their strong points, but they often repeat well worn out tidbits of advice to maintain the illusion of intellectual superiority ?

 

 

Looks like the "Klingons" have their own personal problems in that case.

 

[GreasyFingers]

41 minutes ago, Time Traveller said:

I appreciate that you are old, but you can still get a job, instead of expecting welfare to take care of you. Plenty of people work into their 70's,......and 90% of the world are in that situation same as you or without any access to welfare at all.

You try doing 8 hours manual labour a day when you are in the 70's and let me know your secret because it would be worth bottling.

[mfd101]

40 minutes ago, Time Traveller said:

After living in America for a number of years, the health care savings alone is why I would choose to retire in Thailand.

Edited 37 minutes ago by Time Traveller

Yes, and - certainly compared to Oz - the dental costs here are 50% or more lower, and the quality to be had in Bangkok is quite a lot better than what I could get for most of my life in Canberra (the bourgeois paradise).

 

For the Agony Aunts who can't afford a subscription to a decent Oz newspaper, you may be interested to know that today's news is that the Oz economy grew by 3.4% over the last year (health services & mining most notably) & unemployment at 5.3% is at its lowest in 6 years. All of which has implications for the $A longer term (and, quelle surprise! it's good).

[GreasyFingers]

The OP is probably listening to one of the banks who say the AUD will go to USD 0.50. If the USD rises that high it is unlikely that the baht would follow it all of the way.

But yes, it would be a problem and moving back to Oz and living on the pension is not a good option. If I wanted to take the wife with me and live near family and friends on the east coast, the rent would be about $400 per week even for something modest.

 

 

[Laza 45]

3 hours ago, Stevemercer said:

Most predictions have the Aussie dollar down to 18 Baht

'Most predictions.'. where did you see that?  I follow the $Au quite closely.. I have never seen that prediction..  There is uncertainty for sure.. but that is a very pessimistic outlook with no justification as far as I can see.. 

[logres212]

The major problem is going to qualifying for the retirement extension using income if relying on the Aus. pension plus a bit of money in a Thai bank account,( needing about 300,000 Bhat at the moment.) So if the dollar drops much further it's going to make it difficult for some, unless in the unlikely event the Aus pension gets a substantial boost....

[ReneTH]

Trading wise, it looks like it is a perfect mid-long term chance for AUD to go back up,
perhaps consider buying 1k baht of BTC monthly and keep it for a few years too.

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, bridge2bridge said:

And end up with ANOTHER clown named SHORTEN.

 

At least Shorten is not beholden to a bunch of right-wing retards. Labor has no obligation to the industries that are busy bribing the Libs and Nationals, so can develop sensible policy.

Think about it. Every other nation on the planet is desperately trying to develop renewable energy, and Australia has more sunlight and wind than anywhere else in the world. We have world-class researchers who are producing innovations which will revolutionise energy manufacture and transportation in the next 20 years. That's despite the death of a thousand cuts from the current bunch. Australia has enormous potential in that field.

So what do we get? An entire, major river system screwed up to enable overseas conglomerates to grow cotton. A Prime Minister who confirmed his idiocy by waving a lump of coal around in Parliament. That's up there for stupidity with Tony Abbott's knighthood for Prince Philip.

If you don't understand what I am saying, you weren't paying attention in the science classes.

[ratcatcher]

2 hours ago, Lacessit said:

Naam is right. Over the past ten years, the AUD against the baht has NEVER been below 20 baht. Currencies fluctuate all the time. ( Source: xe.com )

Once we get rid of the current cabal of clowns in Canberra, and develop a sensible energy policy, the Aussie dollar will rise again.

Ditto that for Canada.

[Gandtee]

The Brexit fiasco was the death knell for Sterling. Until a firm decision is made by the wafflers who are supposedly running the country, I can't see things changing sometime soon. Then will it get better? I wouldn't bank on it. Pun intended?

[Stevemercer]

2 hours ago, Guderian said:

Maybe .... there'll be a coup or something in Thailand.

 

We already had one in 2014 in case you missed it, and it didn't hurt the Baht at all. Nor did the one back in 2006 as far as I can recall.

 

Yeah, I know. It would be ironic if the General currently in charge became the 'civilian' PM after the next election, only to see his military brethren overthrow him 6 months later. Unlikely, I know, but still possible. A coup would put a headwind into the Baht's ride and at least hold it up a bit.

[GreasyFingers]

24 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

At least Shorten is not beholden to a bunch of right-wing retards. Labor has no obligation to the industries that are busy bribing the Libs and Nationals, so can develop sensible policy.

You obviously do not agree with Larry Pickering's assessment of Shorten.

[Stevemercer]

I get it that currency predictions are just that, and there's no point worrying about something you can't control. I also agree that, nevertheless, one can try and plan to minimise impacts and risks from a lowering income.

 

There are many predictions out there. I admit I looked at the most pessimistic (this was a simple trend line based on the dollar/baht over the last 18 months and extending the same trend over the next 18 months). Most predictions were closer to 20 Baht by the end of 2019. None forecast a weakening Baht, or strengthening Australian dollar, over the next 3 years.

 

I guess I am wondering whether there comes a point when it might be worthwhile looking at living in Australia purely based on economics. Of course, rent would still be the killer cost back in Australia.

[ThaiFelix]

2 hours ago, Sparkles said:

Then for my lovely Thai wife to join me you have to pay way over $6,000 for a non refundable application for  visa.

$6,000?  Is this correct or do you mean 6,000 baht?