Pro-junta party ‘has an edge’

[webfact]

Pro-junta party ‘has an edge’

By The Nation

 

 

Defections by former Pheu Thai, Democrat MPs expected to strengthen its chances, but coalition govt could be unstable, experts warn
 

THE PRO-JUNTA Palang Pracharat Party could win the next election but the post-poll coalition government it would lead would be unstable, according to experts.

 

Thanks to mass defections by former MPs and veteran politicians to the newly formed party, Palang Pracharat could win at least 130 of the 500 House seats up for grabs and become the biggest winner, King Prajadhipok’s Institute senior researcher Stithorn Thananithichot said yesterday.

 

His estimates are based on the assumption that the pro-junta party’s election candidates, many of whom are former MPs, will win about 50 seats from their traditional strongholds. Some 80 other MP seats would come from the party-list system of proportional representation, the researcher said.

 

Stithorn expects Palang Pracharat to secure an average of 20,000 votes in the 300 constituencies that it would lose. That would be 6 million votes in total. When divided by 70,000 – the minimum votes for a winning candidate – the 6 million votes would translate into 80 to 85 party-list MPs, he said.

 

The next election will mark the first time when only one ballot will be used to vote for both constituency and party-list MPs. All the votes gained by each political party will be totalled to determine the number of party-list MPs it can get.

 

“Palang Pracharat has a good chance of forming the next government. But how long the coalition will survive depends on the second and third largest partners, who will have high bargaining power,” Stithorn said.

 

 

“It is unlikely Palang Pracharat will be able to form a government on its own. Pheu Thai and Democrat parties will win sufficient MPs to make them potential coalition partners,” he added.

 

The researcher also said that Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha had a good chance of returning as head of the next government if Palang Pracharat backed him as its PM candidate.

 

However, political scientist Trakoon Meechai warned that a coalition government led by Palang Pracharat would be unstable, as the party had gathered many defecting politicians.

 

These politicians mainly focus on their personal interest and generally have no firm political ideology, which explains why they opted to change their allegiance in the first place, the academic said.

 

“Palang Pracharat seems to have an edge in the election. But it will become unstable. There will be a lot of political bargaining. Without good responses [to different demands], it will face a problem of political stability,” Trakoon said. 

 

 

He pointed to certain “lessons from the past” when large political parties wooed strong candidates into their fold with the only goal of forming the government. Their coalition governments soon became unstable when the MPs were discontented with their gains.

 

In order to avoid such a “vicious cycle” for Thai politics, the academic called on Prayut and the ruling National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) to “back off from the political ring and return to their role as the referee”.

 

He said that to ensure the political reforms it had promised, the NCPO needed to “stop meddling with politics, or Thai politics will never see a way out”.

 

 

Veteran politician Chaturon Chaisang said yesterday that the current Constitution drafted by a junta-appointed committee allows Prayut to become a PM candidate after the election without having to be a member of any political party. However, he expected Prayut to “go on with difficulty and wear down quickly” when he is denied the special powers under Article 44 of the post-coup interim charter, which the junta leader has retained in the current Constitution.

 

Chaturon, who recently left Pheu Thai to join Thai Raksa Chart, said he believed “pro-democracy politicians” had defected to the other side after being pressured with legal problems.

 

He said the junta’s obvious attempt to retain power reflected its failure to keep the promise of reforms for a better political system.

“We have seen how the NCPO and its people have ruined Thailand’s political system,” Chaturon said.

 

Palang Pracharat has attracted more than 1,300 members, allowing the party to have more than the expected election candidates, party registrar Vichien Chavalit said yesterday.

 

Among its new members are many ex-MPs and former government ministers from other parties, mainly Pheu Thai.

 

Vichien said Palang Pracharat has not formally discussed whether to nominate Prayut as its PM candidate. That would be done “when the time is right”, he added.

 

Among politicians joining Palang Pracharat are 40 former MPs from Pheu Thai and now-defunct parties associated with former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, namely Thai Rak Thai and People Power, according to red-shirt leader Weng Tojirakarn.

 

Weng, a former Pheu Thai MP, recently left the party to join Thai Raksa Chart, which is viewed as allied to the pro-Thaksin party. 

 

In his Facebook message, Weng listed all the 40 defecting politicians and asked voters to “teach them a lesson” in the same way they had dealt with Pheu Thai defectors who had failed to get elected in the 2011 general election.

 

Meanwhile, Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said yesterday that 17 of its former MPs had defected to other parties. But he did not reveal how many of them had joined Palang Pracharat.

 

A former prime minister, Abhisit maintained that the Democrats had no plans to join hands with Palang Pracharat, as his party is offering itself as a major choice for the country in the next election.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30359411

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-11-28

[Chang_paarp]

59 minutes ago, webfact said:

 

Thanks to mass defections by former MPs and veteran politicians to the newly formed party, Palang Pracharat could win at least 130 of the 500 House seats up for grabs and become the biggest winner, King Prajadhipok’s Institute senior researcher Stithorn Thananithichot said yesterday.

 

That is interesting, these politicians who were elected on the coat-tails of a populist movement actually believe the electorate will follow them whilst the populist party they were a member of still exists (for the moment).

I wonder how many of them will do a Newin and change alliance after the election if a better offer comes along.

[zzaa09]

Imagine that.

 

Jumping ship and sucking up seems to be all the fashion.

[YetAnother]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

These politicians mainly focus on their personal interest

boy, that needed to be said, might have mentioned promises that were never intended to be kept, and lying

[zzaa09]

2 minutes ago, YetAnother said:

boy, that needed to be said, might have mentioned promises that were never intended to be kept, and lying

Thoroughly commonplace among political types the world over.

[ChrisY1]

2 hours ago, Chang_paarp said:

That is interesting, these politicians who were elected on the coat-tails of a populist movement actually believe the electorate will follow them whilst the populist party they were a member of still exists (for the moment).

I wonder how many of them will do a Newin and change alliance after the election if a better offer comes along.

I wonder how many of them will be dumped if the military win.....?

[graemeaylward]

As far as I am aware, because there is a ban on political activity, no party has published its manifesto yet. Therefore nobody knows what they would be voting for, so everything above is just hot air.

Sent from my Lenovo A3000-H using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[owl sees all]

In a 'free' and 'fair' election, Chan-o-cha would have little chance no matter who aligned with whom.

 

But what is 'free' and 'fair' is the key.

[sammieuk1]

More of a barrel than an edge surely???? 

[yellowboat]

Cannot imagine what young people must think regarding all the selfishness, lack of concern for the country and poor behavior.   Cheeky thoughtless self serving lust for power is all the rage today.    Say what you want about the Shinawatras, but they were never this bad.  This is the face of reform under the junta.  It looks tragic.

[Burma Bill]

FAKE NEWS!

[PatOngo]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Pro-junta party ‘has an edge’

Uncanny!..............so does U2.

 

[MaxLee]

Going for the ultimate trough,.....  

[Eric Loh]

PPRP is sucking up all those 'bad' old politicians and hope to do well. Don't think so. They will be punished by the voters who will denounced those democracy traitors, disappointed with old style politics of re-cycling old corrupt politicians and the surge of young new voters.    

[Charlie1]

"If a political party does not have its foundation in the determination to advance a cause that is right and that is moral, then it is not a political party; it is merely a conspiracy to seize power."

Dwight D. Eisenhower
34th President of the United States of America

[baboon]

33 minutes ago, PatOngo said:

Uncanny!..............so does U2.

 

And both are bloody awful. It's uncanny...

[Lupatria]

9 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

disappointed with old style politics of re-cycling old corrupt politicians and the surge of young new voters.

As much as I tend to agree with your opinion, I doubt that the new generation "educated" by old style teachers to obey and adhere an ancient command structure, found a towel to wipe off what is left from years of brainwashing. 

[GarryP]

30 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

PPRP is sucking up all those 'bad' old politicians and hope to do well. Don't think so. They will be punished by the voters who will denounced those democracy traitors, disappointed with old style politics of re-cycling old corrupt politicians and the surge of young new voters.    

I hope what you say turns out true, but believe it is just wishful thinking. 

[Phuketshrew]

Even if it does turn out to be true then what next? I can't see the Generals and military leaving the trough and shyly retiring to their barracks.

[Eric Loh]

14 minutes ago, Lupatria said:

As much as I tend to agree with your opinion, I doubt that the new generation "educated" by old style teachers to obey and adhere an ancient command structure, found a towel to wipe off what is left from years of brainwashing. 

That's quite true since 1976 which was the last time that youth was awakened and angered by the excessive militarism in politics and the abuses of human rights. I see that awakening now. There are more student activists protesting and the rap song "prathep ku mi' generated a lot of awareness and the Future Forward party is a manifestation of youth in politics. By the way, 'prathep ku mi' now seen by 41 M. Prayut's lack of promised reforms, consistent lying and his stay on power longer than most coups have energized many youths as polls suggested. More than 70% new voters will cast votes and that is phenomenal. Youth may be educated in old style but politics are seen quite different by them; thanks to the internet world. 

[jayboy]

" What country ever existed a century and a half without a rebellion? And what country can preserve its liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? Let them take arms. The remedy is to set them right as to facts, pardon and pacify them. What signify a few lives lost in a century or two? The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure."

 

Thomas Jefferson

[digger70]

Politicians are all the same it doesn't matter which party , making big promises before an election ,ones they are in ,,,,,  end of story/promises  they all backpedal /change most of the promises they made ,except giving themself more money.

[Eric Loh]

48 minutes ago, Phuketshrew said:

Even if it does turn out to be true then what next? I can't see the Generals and military leaving the trough and shyly retiring to their barracks.

Things have changed recently. All depends on where the army chief place his loyalty and how strong the next government to re-write the constitution and defang the military. Cloudy future but the election is the only logical step and attempt to do something. 

[Lupatria]

2 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

PPRP is sucking up all those 'bad' old politicians and hope to do well. Don't think so. They will be punished by the voters who will denounced those democracy traitors, disappointed with old style politics of re-cycling old corrupt politicians and the surge of young new voters.    

They are strong only while you are weak. You are only weak as long as you are not "WE".

[yellowboat]

1 hour ago, Eric Loh said:

Things have changed recently. All depends on where the army chief place his loyalty and how strong the next government to re-write the constitution and defang the military. Cloudy future but the election is the only logical step and attempt to do something. 

It might be time to write off Thailand's future.  It will just become Burma or Cambodia with a nicer tourist brochure 

[GarryP]

52 minutes ago, yellowboat said:

It might be time to write off Thailand's future.  It will just become Burma or Cambodia with a nicer tourist brochure 

That will not happen. Unlike Cambodia and Myanmar, Thailand developed a thriving economy and foreign investment has played a big role. They really aren't comparable to Thailand.  

[DrTuner]

7 hours ago, zzaa09 said:

Thoroughly commonplace among political types the world over.

Politics is the art of spewing BS that people want to believe.

[zzaa09]

8 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

That's quite true since 1976 which was the last time that youth was awakened and angered by the excessive militarism in politics and the abuses of human rights. I see that awakening now. There are more student activists protesting and the rap song "prathep ku mi' generated a lot of awareness and the Future Forward party is a manifestation of youth in politics. By the way, 'prathep ku mi' now seen by 41 M. Prayut's lack of promised reforms, consistent lying and his stay on power longer than most coups have energized many youths as polls suggested. More than 70% new voters will cast votes and that is phenomenal. Youth may be educated in old style but politics are seen quite different by them; thanks to the internet world. 

Indeed...

In a round about manner, the dominate paradigm appears to be shifting - not exclusively among the youth, but wise old timers as well. 

[holy cow cm]

13 hours ago, zzaa09 said:

Imagine that.

 

Jumping ship and sucking up seems to be all the fashion.

Yes always has been. My thought is how much of an underlying threat of: “if you don’t join us” your life will be harder than if you do join us. 

[chama]

15 hours ago, Chang_paarp said:

That is interesting, these politicians who were elected on the coat-tails of a populist movement actually believe the electorate will follow them whilst the populist party they were a member of still exists (for the moment).

I wonder how many of them will do a Newin and change alliance after the election if a better offer comes along.

Its all about the number of spots at the trough. If they aren't getting fat enough...off they go!